# FOR ELLIS and or MATH GUYS:

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I know that each system we teach here on BTC HAS to lose to something.

I'm just wondering what system is STRONGEST; would lose to the least common occurrence? i.e, I know we start out System 40 with 4's the culprit since that is what we know (hope) will occur the least.

And I assume thats why we start out with System 40 when playing Sys 40A....

The reason I ask is that I'm reviewing some of the MANY "cut n paste" of texts that I have done off of this great board, and this one was entitled: "How Ellis Plays"...here is is:

" what is the winningest system we know? My vote goes with OTB4L. That is what I ALWAYS start with in the casino. And I very very seldom have to change. And when I finally do its always to the exact opposite, TB4L. Nothing could be simpler. Neither system is even net bet! They are BOTH Single Side systems. God, I could teach a baboon to do it.

So, I did a little experiment with PJ. I said PJ, pick a streaky shoe and play OTB4L with a simple 1,2 prog. and when you lose the 1,2 you just had a 4 in a row either straight or ZZ, so STOP betting until the run ends and start over. Well he used 1, 1 1/2. but pretty much the same thing. The point is, much to his surprise he won easily - just like I usually do."

Now, that was from Nov of 2009.... and I'm just curious if there is anything STRONGER that we have learned since then? BTW...for the record, I believe Ellis has stated a system that IS incredibly strong, especially the way he suggested PJ play it with the 1,2 and then STOP until streak ends.... (I just hate to lose the potential profit the streak might bring)

Again, I'm thinking "what is the STRONGEST and loses the LEAST" over everything we have learned so far?

Edited by Audionut
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I know that each system we teach here on BTC HAS to lose to something.

I'm just wondering what system is STRONGEST; would lose to the least common occurrence? i.e, I know we start out System 40 with 4's the culprit since that is what we know (hope) will occur the least.

And I assume thats why we start out with System 40 when playing Sys 40A....

The reason I ask is that I'm reviewing some of the MANY "cut n paste" of texts that I have done off of this great board, and this one was entitled: "How Ellis Plays"...here is is:

" what is the winningest system we know? My vote goes with OTB4L. That is what I ALWAYS start with in the casino. And I very very seldom have to change. And when I finally do its always to the exact opposite, TB4L. Nothing could be simpler. Neither system is even net bet! They are BOTH Single Side systems. God, I could teach a baboon to do it.

So, I did a little experiment with PJ. I said PJ, pick a streaky shoe and play OTB4L with a simple 1,2 prog. and when you lose the 1,2 you just had a 4 in a row either straight or ZZ, so STOP betting until the run ends and start over. Well he used 1, 1 1/2. but pretty much the same thing. The point is, much to his surprise he won easily - just like I usually do."

Now, that was from Nov of 2009.... and I'm just curious if there is anything STRONGER that we have learned since then? BTW...for the record, I believe Ellis has stated a system that IS incredibly strong, especially the way he suggested PJ play it with the 1,2 and then STOP until streak ends.... (I just hate to lose the potential profit the streak might bring)

Again, I'm thinking "what is the STRONGEST and loses the LEAST" over everything we have learned so far?

An excellent post Audio! But perhaps you missed my recent post from Keith's house esp. since I may have posted under his name.

Anyway, my point was that I strongly feel we should be basing S40A with OTB4L, NOT S40. The list of reasons is pretty lengthy.

Why base an approach on a chop system??? Half the shoes favor streak.

Likewise, why base an approach on a streak system??? Half the shoes favor chop.

Granted, F2,3 beats streak hands down and also many forms of chop but it is primarily a STREAK system.

S40 beats chop hands down but merely holds its own in streak IF the runs are the right length.

Virtually all systems can be labeled either as a streak or a chop system. EXCEPT OTB4L. We could say its neither, its neutral. Or we could say its both.

Shoes are composed of runs: Straight, ZZ, and TT, AND GARBAGE.

But, when you think about it, today, shoes are mostly garbage. Think about it. Are shoes mostly runs or mostly garbage? They used to be mostly runs 20 years ago but today, let's face it. Shoes are mostly garbage.

The casinos see to it. They went from 3% profits when the shoes were mostly runs to 26% today by presenting shoes that are mostly garbage.

Why does garbage win for the casinos? Here we come full circle. Because all systems are either streak or chop systems. Nobody else is playing a garbage system. OTB4L is the ONLY garbage system there is.

I can guarantee you that when you win big with OTB4L you are the ONLY winner at the table. Everyone else loses to garbage. That is why the casinos like it and that is why they strive to present it. They aren't dumb.

I can tell you for an absolute fact that in recent years I have won more shoes with OTB4L than ALL other systems COMBINED.

Very rarely is a shoe too streaky or too choppy for OTB4L. But when they are, you can STILL win by simply staying on the runs once on them.

OK, what is garbage??? Single 1's, 2s, 3s, 212 and TT runs. Isn't THAT what today's shoes are mostly composed of?

What does OTB4L like MOST? Single 1's, 2s,3s and 212 runs. And it wins EVERY bet in TT runs as well. I guess you could call TT runs garbage too.

But what if you are getting double 1's? Fine go OTR on ZZs one play later and you beat double 1's which are really 4 in a row ZZs.

What if you are getting too many 4s? Fine, go on the straight runs 1 play later OR 1 play sooner. Either way beats 4s.

What if you are seeing LONG straight or ZZ runs? Fine, stay on them until you lose and then start your prog over at 1.

My point is that unlike S40 or F2,3, there is ALWAYS a way to win with OTB4L. It simply can't be overwhelmed if you use your head. AND, the more you play it the better you get at it.

Plus, I like the concept of playing to precisely what the casinos are striving to present.

Sure, F2,3 outperforms OTB4L in a very streaky shoe.

S40 outperforms OTB4L in a very choppy shoe.

That is the whole idea of S40A. Play the best system for the condition you face. BUT, when the bias is not clear it's usually an OTB4L shoe.

So my vote for a base system for S 40 goes to OTB4L.

Edited by ECD
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Oh, and what does OTB4L lose to? Straight or ZZ runs of 4 following runs of 4. Pretty darn rare. And how do we fix that?

Go OTR right after they go 3. Or we could say: after one losing bet Also, that's the best way to play OTB4L when you have no idea of what is going on or when the shoes are completely random. And when you go on a run at 3, stay on the run until it has gone the longest you've seen thus far. When you get off a run start your prog over at 1. You are usually at 1 anyway.

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"I can tell you for an absolute fact that in recent years I have won more shoes with OTB4L than ALL other systems COMBINED."

WOW! Pretty strong statement! And I think that answers my question as well!

On my original post, where you had PJ do a 1,2 progression then stop OTR until it ended... do you remember if your intention was M2? Or was it stay at 1 until a loss, then go to 2?

I'm VERY comfortable playing that way, seems safe, and like you have suggested let the shoe tell you when to go OTR...!!

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Hi Audionut,

These last few posts have me thinking of a system Anthony Cheng and I used to play based on OTB4L/TB4L. We called it open Matrix. It was a good system. The losing pattern was a 1,3 or 3,1 confirmed. I got to digging back thru my old cards and found this scorecard. I'm posting it mostly for nistalgia, since we've moved on now, but maybe some of the newer members will get a kick out of it.

We usually waited for the first 2 hands and came in with either OTB4L or TB4L at hand 3. We would change from one system to the other after just 1 loss.

PJ

Edited by ECD
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Thanks PJ. Check the 9th play in the 4th col.

Here is another very strong reason to base with OTB4L.

Suppose you don't base on any particular system. You wait for the shoe to reveal the right system. It might be obvious and it might NOT be so obvious.

Compare that to starting with OTB4L. One thing is very obvious. You are either winning or losing. If you are winning, keep on trucking. But if you are losing the reason is obvious because you can only be losing for TWO reasons. Either the shoe is too choppy for OTB4L so you switch to 40. OR the shoe is too streaky for OTB4L so you switch to F2,3. Either way it is very obvious what you need to do. See, OTB4L covers the middle of the road. So if it's failing, it's either too streaky or too choppy. Either way, your course of action is obvious.

Also, It is very easy to switch out of OTB4L into F2,3 or 40. 40, you are going to stay on opposites when switching. F2,3 you are going to stay on repeats on the strong side. Makes life simple.

BTW, PJ, there's a free tournament coming up later this month at Gold Strike! \$25,000!

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I see the m-m-mistake, should be OTB4L at hand 69. DAMN YOU"RE GOOD!! Catching mistakes I made 2 years ago. lol

Thanks for the heads up on the tournament.

Edited by ECD
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Thanks PJ for posting the shoe... very interesting, changing from OTB4L to TB4L after just ONE loss... Now THAT is adapting

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And one more point in support of basing with OTB4L instead of 40: 40 is always ON the first play of every straight run and then bets against that run. Good, but OTB4L is on the first TWO plays of every straight run before betting against.

Take a 4 in a row. 40 will likely win the first play and then lose 3 bets. OTB4L will win the fist two plays and then lose only 3 bets. Straight runs are less than half as damaging to OTB4L as they are to 40. That is why OTB4L performs better in streak than 40. But 40 performs better in ZZ runs. We can decide between 40 and OTB4L by simply noting if 1's are coming in singles or multiples.

I think the Singapore guys should take a close look at OTB4L going OTR after ONE losing OTB4L bet. EXCEPT under a 1 following a 2. Here you want to allow 2 losing OTB4L bets in case of the 212s. Then the culprit is 3s straight or ZZ but if you are seeing high 3s simply allow 2 losing OTB4L bets and you beat all 3s. Either way, you still win every bet in the TTs. You can adjust OTB4L to fit virtually any situation. But OTB4L is particularly fond of new cards as demonstrated yet again at Hollywood. Didn't you Singapore guys say they are dealing new cards every shoe???

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I see the m-m-mistake, should be OTB4L at hand 69. DAMN YOU"RE GOOD!! Catching mistakes I made 2 years ago. lol

Thanks for the heads up on the tournament.

That's why I get paid the big bucks!

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Ellis, here is one shoe I played today, as it's a new shoe, I started out using OTB4L...

But I don't think I did well, is there anything wrong with my OTR bet placement or this pattern is simply a nemesis of OTB4L?

Everytime I use OTB4L, I allow myself for 2 losing bets before going OTR.

Hand 4: Lost 2 hands consecutively, went OTR betting opposite

Hand 5: OTR did not work, switch back to OTB4L on this hand

Hand 6: Using OTB4L on this hand, my progression is U1D2M2 and caps at 5 units anyway

Hand 7: Lost 2 hands consecutively, went OTR betting repeat

Hand 8: OTR did not work, switch back to OTB4L on this hand

Hand 9: Finally won a hand.

Hand 15: OTR on repeat

Hand 22: OTR on opposite

Hand 32: 3s developed in hand 31, since 4s is MC, I bet OTR one hand earlier like Ellis recommended, but did not win. (I didn't do the same on hand 18)

Hand 33: Switch back to OTB4L on this hand

Hand 35: OTR on opposite. Lost, quit.

Edited by fluppocinonys

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