davelevad Posted August 20, 2011 Report Share Posted August 20, 2011 Here are the scorecards of the games which I saw Ellis play live:Perhaps Ellis can provide play-by-plays if he has the time.For the reasons noted, Ellis had different final scores than I did on some of the shoes, but the bet placements were identical.1. Hollywood Penn National, PA, 8/13/11(Ellis used a different prog, so he got +10u.)2. Hollywood Penn National, PA, 8/13/11(Double shuffle due to shoe mechanism malfunction.)3. Trump Plaza, AC, 8/14/11(Ellis had +10u due to starting betting at hand #3.)4. Trump Plaza, AC, 8/14/11(Ellis had +10u due to using a 1u instead of 2u after a 1u loss at hands 4-5.)5. Trump Plaza, AC, 8/14/11(No commish, started mid-shoe after a Player 5 streak)6. Trump Plaza, AC, 8/14/11(No commish, decided to end early because Keith & Lori were there and wanting to head back to PA - it was already past mid-night.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daytrader77459 Posted September 2, 2011 Report Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hi, Ellis,Need your help with the shoes played on your trip at Hollywood Penn National - Shoe 1. Thank you, Davelevad, for posting these shoes. Please look at shoe 1.Started off w 4 Ps - so pretty much became SS/F2/F3 with P bias. Followed the U1D2 progression. Pretty clear thru hand 19.Now hand 20 - a bet of 4u was put on B - is this a recording error, Dave or Ellis? Or was this accurate for a 4u Bank bet? If accurate, why suddenly get off the F2 strong player bias? The 4u P bet would have been a swing of 8u. What am I missing here from the F2/F3 - NOR manual materials? Why not take the 2nd P bet at hand 20?Then hands 22, 23, 24 - lost 3 consec hands and (-6u). "Okay" however as this was per F2/F3 rules. But why jump to P after 3 Bs? If now have 1st run of 3 Bs, doesn't the F2/F3 rule set indicate that we should bet a 4th hand on B (hand 25)? What was the trigger to switch to OBL from F2/F3 on hand 25? Hand 21 should have been (+9u) after the winning (4u) bet on P for hand 20, plus a (2u) winning bet for hand 21 for P if following U1D2.But there was an obvious and immediate switch to OBL. Please explain criteria and principles behind this sudden switch. I recognize that the last four events were heavily biased on OBL with the PPPBBPPPBBB series. But still not a trigger to switch to OBL suddenly on hand 25.Ellis - appreciate your input and thoughts. Thank you!Daytrader77459 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daytrader77459 Posted September 2, 2011 Report Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hi, Ellis,A quick question on the Hollywood Penn National shoe 2 (posted below my text). This was a good S40 shoe from the beginning and Column 1, had a winning (+10u).Why stopped the shoe? Fatigue? Dinner? Departure time? Normally in a good shoe like this, I would look to go 112 to lock up any winning shoe. But normally I see your shoes posted as having to go more than Column 1.Thank you.Daytrader77459 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daytrader77459 Posted September 2, 2011 Report Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hi, Ellis,Sorry - more questions from Hollywood Penn National - Shoe 5. In this shoe, you started mid way after 5 Ps in a row. Then comes my questions:1. Starting on Hand 3 - for some reason, the bets became placed using OB4L basis. Why the sudden switch? Previous shoes at same table? Not shown?For me - 5 Ps is a trigger for SS/F2/F3 NOR.2. Likewise, after 3 Bs, why bet hand 5 on P (which is OBL betting)? The F2/F3 system would have indicted betting Bs for hands 4 and 5. Lose hand 5 to a P.Then jump right back to B with a 2u B bet.3. On hands 16, 17, 18, - these would have all been B bets. Clearly a 9u swing in scores here.Summary - key question is what criteria/trigger caused immediate start using OB4L - instead of using SS/F2/F3 approach?Thank you for your time and learning points on these questions! Daytrader77459 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 2, 2011 Report Share Posted September 2, 2011 (edited) Hi, Ellis,A quick question on the Hollywood Penn National shoe 2 (posted below my text). This was a good S40 shoe from the beginning and Column 1, had a winning (+10u).Why stopped the shoe? Fatigue? Dinner? Departure time? Normally in a good shoe like this, I would look to go 112 to lock up any winning shoe. But normally I see your shoes posted as having to go more than Column 1.Thank you.Daytrader77459Ha, I see your point! You mean s40-3, not OTB4L.Nothing scientific here. It is just that we could see the rest of the shoe on the tote board where all you can see is that starting 5. We could see the 5 was a fluke and a good place to start S40. There were no prior runs in that shoe. Until then it was following S40-3 rather nicely and continued to mostly keep doing that after the 5. The shoe actually ended when we got to +9. Otherwise I might have gone for +10. Edited September 2, 2011 by Guest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 2, 2011 Report Share Posted September 2, 2011 Whoops, I got the right answer to the wrong question. I was answering your question on the shoe that started with the 5. Now, I'll go back and look at the other one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 2, 2011 Report Share Posted September 2, 2011 (edited) Hi, Ellis,A quick question on the Hollywood Penn National shoe 2 (posted below my text). This was a good S40 shoe from the beginning and Column 1, had a winning (+10u).Why stopped the shoe? Fatigue? Dinner? Departure time? Normally in a good shoe like this, I would look to go 112 to lock up any winning shoe. But normally I see your shoes posted as having to go more than Column 1.Thank you.Daytrader77459OK now I got the right shoe. Yes, I remember this shoe quite well. Ha, it's funny how innocent it looks once taken out of context - a real yawner. But let me set the scene for you and I think you'll understand. This was the 2nd shoe on Sat night and at a freshly opened table. The first shoe at the other table was a very struggling +10. And Friday night had been a disaster because no shoe followed any bias for any length of time. I felt lucky to get out of Fri night with a -4 after a full length very struggling F shoe. So we went into Sat night with our fingers still burning and the first shoe looked like more of the same. On the second shoe I jumped in real quick because the dealer had knocked over the cards causing a double shuffle which usually gives us a "gift" S40 shoe. I know from experience to quit at +10 when playing a 123 prog because a +10 is usually about all that prog can muster PLUS I was coming off a VERY tough shoe And I had a bunch of players shadowing me PLUS I was playing someone else's money. Hitting +10 in the first column always begs the question of continuing on but I find that more than half the time it turns out to be a mistake with only a 123 prog and I'm not going to 345 with someone elses money. It might freak them out. As it turned out, all but Dave stayed in that shoe but ended up wishing they hadn't.Plus I wasn't really trusting that casino after promising us our own new cards 8 player table and then physically removing it from the casino the day before we got there. Was the double shuffle really an accident or some sort of scheme???I know I make dealers nervous but that was a little ridiculous. Also, getting to the 3 bet twice in one column makes me put one foot on the floor ready to run anyway. I prefer shoes that put up no fight at all like 3 of the 4 AC shoes the next day.OH yeah, and I was also freezing to death. Edited September 2, 2011 by Guest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 2, 2011 Report Share Posted September 2, 2011 (edited) Hi, Ellis,Need your help with the shoes played on your trip at Hollywood Penn National - Shoe 1. Thank you, Davelevad, for posting these shoes. Please look at shoe 1.Started off w 4 Ps - so pretty much became SS/F2/F3 with P bias. Followed the U1D2 progression. Pretty clear thru hand 19.Now hand 20 - a bet of 4u was put on B - is this a recording error, Dave or Ellis? Or was this accurate for a 4u Bank bet? If accurate, why suddenly get off the F2 strong player bias? The 4u P bet would have been a swing of 8u. What am I missing here from the F2/F3 - NOR manual materials? Why not take the 2nd P bet at hand 20?Then hands 22, 23, 24 - lost 3 consec hands and (-6u). "Okay" however as this was per F2/F3 rules. But why jump to P after 3 Bs? If now have 1st run of 3 Bs, doesn't the F2/F3 rule set indicate that we should bet a 4th hand on B (hand 25)? What was the trigger to switch to OBL from F2/F3 on hand 25? Hand 21 should have been (+9u) after the winning (4u) bet on P for hand 20, plus a (2u) winning bet for hand 21 for P if following U1D2.But there was an obvious and immediate switch to OBL. Please explain criteria and principles behind this sudden switch. I recognize that the last four events were heavily biased on OBL with the PPPBBPPPBBB series. But still not a trigger to switch to OBL suddenly on hand 25.Ellis - appreciate your input and thoughts. Thank you!Daytrader77459Yeah, see I told you it was a struggling shoe. Right, the 4 bet at play 20 is wrong but correct to the old rules which is the way Keith would play it. I think what happened is I went to the John and Keith sat in for a few hands. I came back to find the F score had gone from +9 to -5 playing F for dimes. I doubt if I noticed the 8 unit mistake because I was busy deciding what system to go to. I saw that it was perfect OTB4L for the last dozen plays. So, I drew a line, went to green immediately and changed the starting score from - 5 dimes to minus 2 quarters. Then I quit at +10 quarters and went to the other table which was just starting with new cards. I guess I lost Dave switching colors and the score that way. I didn't realize he was tracking that shoe or I would have told him what I had done with the re-starting score. Edited September 2, 2011 by Guest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts