# Question on SAP counting

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Hello everyone,

I'm a new member and after reading through the threads i wanna be sure that i'm going in the right direction. Can someone tell me whether i'm right or wrong?

This is what i have gathered from reading the information available.

1. First i learn how to do an O/R count from the toteboard - Is it necessary to count the O/R from play #2 onwards to the current hand? If i enter a shoe mid way say #50 do i need to count from #2 to #50 to decide whether it is in + or - and decide on what system to play?

2. Do i need to copy all hands played on the score sheet if i enter the shoe mid way?

3. What does it mean to say the least entry of heading 1 2 3 4 is the least common (culprit). If e.g. 1 2 3 4 has value of 13 8 16 10 then does it mean 2 is the LC cos it is the least entry value? I'm confused at this part.

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you don't have to copy the hands onto your scorecard - most players don't.

On the other hand, I do! It takes very little time. I also do a SAP count

and bring it up to date. I find it helps me to know how the shoe is playing.

Great players like Ellis can just look at the board and know what is going on,

but I find it is better to write it down. Like I said, it takes only about a minute.

I do not use the O/R count - I use SAP instead. But the same is true for the O/R

as for writing down all the plays - it is a personal choice. The O/R count can

vary in different parts of the shoe, so you might just want to look at the last 20 plays.

You are correct about the SAP count. Remember 1's count for 1, 2's for 2 and 3's and

4+'s count for 4. The count for 4+'s could never be 10 as in your example. In your

example 2's would be the LC (8) and 3's would be the MC (16). If I was going to enter

this shoe I would play S40 to take advantage of the high 1's, but when it went to 2 I

would bet the same side, expecting the 2 to go to 3. This is my method of incorporating

SAP into NOR. I expect to be demonstrating that method at the Vegas seminar. Hope

to see you there

Paul

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you don't have to copy the hands onto your scorecard - most players don't.

On the other hand, I do! It takes very little time. I also do a SAP count

and bring it up to date. I find it helps me to know how the shoe is playing.

Great players like Ellis can just look at the board and know what is going on,

but I find it is better to write it down. Like I said, it takes only about a minute.

I do not use the O/R count - I use SAP instead. But the same is true for the O/R

as for writing down all the plays - it is a personal choice. The O/R count can

vary in different parts of the shoe, so you might just want to look at the last 20 plays.

You are correct about the SAP count. Remember 1's count for 1, 2's for 2 and 3's and

4+'s count for 4. The count for 4+'s could never be 10 as in your example. In your

example 2's would be the LC (8) and 3's would be the MC (16). If I was going to enter

this shoe I would play S40 to take advantage of the high 1's, but when it went to 2 I

would bet the same side, expecting the 2 to go to 3. This is my method of incorporating

SAP into NOR. I expect to be demonstrating that method at the Vegas seminar. Hope

to see you there

Paul

Thank you Paul for this explanation. Now I understand it better. So if there are 2 equal values (e.g. Heading 2 and 3 are the same 16 and 16) which will be the correct LC?

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We usually go with the lower one (2 in this case) but my play

would depend on what the other numbers are.

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We usually go with the lower one (2 in this case) but my play

would depend on what the other numbers are.

Thank you so much! Now I'm clear that I am understanding the correct stuff.

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Paul had good answers as usual. Another reason to fill in your whole score card is to help start your own collection of complete score cards. By the same token, we are usually out of the shoe before it ends. We seldom play the entire shoe. But you may want to finish your card to build your collection.

BTW, that reminds me: We have one hard rule here at BTC: NEVER leave your card in a casino. Take it with you.

While we have a tester of 500 complete games on score cards. I seldom recommend it because they are too old. But they do demonstrate the history of Baccarat or better, the evolution. Shoes used to be more biased than they are today. Ha, but see, we have to play what IS and not get confused by what WAS. We can't play nostalgicly and hope to get anywhere. We MUST play what IS because that is where the money IS.

Another point about your developing shoe collection is that it is best to have a collection that reflects the shoes at the casinos you frequent. All casinos have their own oddities.

Casinos are always favoring what is most profitable at THEIR particular casino.

For instance: casinos that cater to new and beginner players (vacation type casinos) will tend to favor streak because new players invariably bet chop.

Inversely, casinos that cater to experienced players and pros will present chop because, think about it, the casino can never get hurt by a choppy shoe. They are safe, but throw a 20 in a row at experienced players and the casino is going to get cleaned out.

Casinos are much, much smarter than the average player realizes. Basically what we do, what BTC does, what NOR does, is to use the casinos own intelligence against them - to use their own orchestration against them. THAT is the whole concept of winning Baccarat play. It happens to also be the whole concept of winning BJ play, incidently.

The average player is really pretty dim witted. He THINKS it is a random game. He even argues that it is a random game. It doesn't occur to him that casinos could not possibly make 26% profits in a perfectly random 50/50 game. It doesn't occur to them that if the average player loses that much, it mathematically CAN'T be random.

Think about your own experience. You have played a lot of shoes. Think about the state of affairs just after the last hand of the shoe is dealt but before commission is collected. Usually, at that point, most of the players are down aren't they. Often, ALL the players at the table. Ha, they WISH they were only out commission.

But, as the Horseshoe Las Vegas clearly demonstated: casinos can eliminate commission ALTOGETHER and the players STILL lose at an alarming rate. Yeah sure, there are winners. BUT for every winner there are like 10 losers.

Take BF: They have no concept of actually how hard it is to produce truly random cards. They argue (vehemently I might add) that all cards are perfectly random. What would this mean? It would mean that overall, the players would win half the hands and lose half the hands. Except for commission players could neither win nor lose and casinos would be reduced from 26% profits down to commission. Casinos can't survive on commission alone.

Think about your own experience. Players don't win half the hands do they. They WISH they did!

BF (and many others, I don't mean to pick on just BF) argues that the cards are perfectly random. Therefore they are arguing that there is no way to win. That is what RANDOM freaking MEANS. Anyone would be utterly STUPID to play a game they can't possibly win, wouldn't they. THEREFORE, they are arguing that they are utterly stupid, aren't they. (Two things equal to the same thing are equal to each other - a basic law of Physics) THEREFORE BF is arguing that they are utterly stupid. Ha, I finally agree with them on something!

One last point on this. While we are very few, some of us are VERY consistent winners. Yes, mostly at BTC but there are also others. I'm sure you have met some by now. Think about this: if the cards were, in fact, always perfectly random, consistent winners would be mathematically impossible. I rest my case!

As John Malayia, from Singapore incidently, puts it: E. Clifton Davis, the father of modern Baccarat. Ha, I agree except that I think it should be "grandfather".

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Let's go back to your SAP question: I can teach NOR from several different perspectives. One good but somewhat complex way is to teach NOR from the SAP perspective. At first, I chose that perspective because I was teaching students whom I had already taught SAP.

But for new students unfamiliar with SAP there is a simpler way. What is it we really need to know to play NOR successfully? We know that the 3 NOR systems each have their likes and dislikes from an events perspective. Each has events it likes and events is doesn't like to various degrees.

For every event a shoe is high in it mathematically MUST have event(s) that it is equally low in. THAT is a given mathematical FACT we can use to our advantage in system selection.

Yes, SAP is good for that. Given. But there is a simpler way. What we really need to know is which events is the shoe at hand high in and which events is it correspondingly low in. We can use our law of NORMAL mathematics which is:

Normally there will be:

a 1 every 4 plays

a 2 every 8 plays

a 3 every 16 plays

a 4 every 32 plays and so forth

See that? It helps that we have our card in 20 play columns. Now mind you, we are not talking here about the or mores. We are only talking about completed events.

Are 1's occurring more or less than 1 every 4 plays?

Are 2's occurring more or less than 1 every 8 plays?

And so forth

To each his own BUT let me point out one thing here: SAP has an advantage here over NOR. However slight, we can always use all the advantage that we can get.

It came up in a shoe Keith and I were playing side by side at Hollywood that I was playing exactly to the posted NOR rules to verify the posted rules.

The shoe called for OTB4L and all of our bets were the same until we got to about hand 15. Then I note that my bet is on Bank and Keith is on Player. So I check my bet. No, my bet is right. Under NOR rules, OTB4L ALWAYS bets opposite a 2 in a row and there had just been 2 Ps.

What are you doing?

I'm betting 1 on P.

I see that. WHY!

SAP! Most of the 2s have gone to 3.

Shit, you are right! (I change my bet to P)

P won!

See that? NOR would not have picked that up but SAP DID. THAT is the advantage of using the more complex SAP way. And some would argue that it isn't even more complex. Especially if you already know SAP.

I realize I'm getting into really fine points here. BUT, sometimes it is the fine points that put us over the top.

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Of course, you must realize by now that we are expecting you to entice at least half of Singapore to become BTC members! Work a deal with Keith. He's always up for that sort of thing. Me? I just teach.

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Paul had good answers as usual. Another reason to fill in your whole score card is to help start your own collection of complete score cards. By the same token, we are usually out of the shoe before it ends. We seldom play the entire shoe. But you may want to finish your card to build your collection.

BTW, that reminds me: We have one hard rule here at BTC: NEVER leave your card in a casino. Take it with you.

While we have a tester of 500 complete games on score cards. I seldom recommend it because they are too old. But they do demonstrate the history of Baccarat or better, the evolution. Shoes used to be more biased than they are today. Ha, but see, we have to play what IS and not get confused by what WAS. We can't play nostalgicly and hope to get anywhere. We MUST play what IS because that is where the money IS.

Another point about your developing shoe collection is that it is best to have a collection that reflects the shoes at the casinos you frequent. All casinos have their own oddities.

Casinos are always favoring what is most profitable at THEIR particular casino.

For instance: casinos that cater to new and beginner players (vacation type casinos) will tend to favor streak because new players invariably bet chop.

Inversely, casinos that cater to experienced players and pros will present chop because, think about it, the casino can never get hurt by a choppy shoe. They are safe, but throw a 20 in a row at experienced players and the casino is going to get cleaned out.

Casinos are much, much smarter than the average player realizes. Basically what we do, what BTC does, what NOR does, is to use the casinos own intelligence against them - to use their own orchestration against them. THAT is the whole concept of winning Baccarat play. It happens to also be the whole concept of winning BJ play, incidently.

The average player is really pretty dim witted. He THINKS it is a random game. He even argues that it is a random game. It doesn't occur to him that casinos could not possibly make 26% profits in a perfectly random 50/50 game. It doesn't occur to them that if the average player loses that much, it mathematically CAN'T be random.

Think about your own experience. You have played a lot of shoes. Think about the state of affairs just after the last hand of the shoe is dealt but before commission is collected. Usually, at that point, most of the players are down aren't they. Often, ALL the players at the table. Ha, they WISH they were only out commission.

But, as the Horseshoe Las Vegas clearly demonstated: casinos can eliminate commission ALTOGETHER and the players STILL lose at an alarming rate. Yeah sure, there are winners. BUT for every winner there are like 10 losers.

Take BF: They have no concept of actually how hard it is to produce truly random cards. They argue (vehemently I might add) that all cards are perfectly random. What would this mean? It would mean that overall, the players would win half the hands and lose half the hands. Except for commission players could neither win nor lose and casinos would be reduced from 26% profits down to commission. Casinos can't survive on commission alone.

Think about your own experience. Players don't win half the hands do they. They WISH they did!

BF (and many others, I don't mean to pick on just BF) argues that the cards are perfectly random. Therefore they are arguing that there is no way to win. That is what RANDOM freaking MEANS. Anyone would be utterly STUPID to play a game they can't possibly win, wouldn't they. THEREFORE, they are arguing that they are utterly stupid, aren't they. (Two things equal to the same thing are equal to each other - a basic law of Physics) THEREFORE BF is arguing that they are utterly stupid. Ha, I finally agree with them on something!

One last point on this. While we are very few, some of us are VERY consistent winners. Yes, mostly at BTC but there are also others. I'm sure you have met some by now. Think about this: if the cards were, in fact, always perfectly random, consistent winners would be mathematically impossible. I rest my case!

As John Malayia, from Singapore incidently, puts it: E. Clifton Davis, the father of modern Baccarat. Ha, I agree except that I think it should be "grandfather".

Yes Sir! =) I also feel that i should start collecting my own score cards so that i can also practice on shoes with the 3 new systems i learned. I can just go around the casino and copy them from the toteboards lol.

For the past 2 months i guess i've played at least 30 shoes but it's more of hit and run. I recall now on my best "lucky" stint that i'd won 6 hands straight with flat betting at 1 unit and i was actually playing S40 without any knowledge of it and just guessing that the next result will be opposite! After i won i bet the opposite! I was lucky on that shoe as it went PBPBPBP lol. If i had learned NOR then i would have stayed on with confidence!

I also recalled that sometimes i lost 2 bets in a row on betting the same side and i persisted to bet the 3rd hand and i won my chips back! All these steps i can see in S40 system now that i understand it. Now that i understand NOR, i can understand why i had won my money and why i have lost! I wish i have learned NOR sooner!

I know now that when i am ready to step into the casino again, i will not be betting on luck and guessing blindly. I will be playing with a system that works and that gives me the confidence i need! Gambling with fear is the worse thing you can experience in a casino (unless you love the thrill and excitement it brings lol)

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Let's go back to your SAP question: I can teach NOR from several different perspectives. One good but somewhat complex way is to teach NOR from the SAP perspective. At first, I chose that perspective because I was teaching students whom I had already taught SAP.

But for new students unfamiliar with SAP there is a simpler way. What is it we really need to know to play NOR successfully? We know that the 3 NOR systems each have their likes and dislikes from an events perspective. Each has events it likes and events is doesn't like to various degrees.

For every event a shoe is high in it mathematically MUST have event(s) that it is equally low in. THAT is a given mathematical FACT we can use to our advantage in system selection.

Yes, SAP is good for that. Given. But there is a simpler way. What we really need to know is which events is the shoe at hand high in and which events is it correspondingly low in. We can use our law of NORMAL mathematics which is:

Normally there will be:

a 1 every 4 plays

a 2 every 8 plays

a 3 every 16 plays

a 4 every 32 plays and so forth

See that? It helps that we have our card in 20 play columns. Now mind you, we are not talking here about the or mores. We are only talking about completed events.

Are 1's occurring more or less than 1 every 4 plays?

Are 2's occurring more or less than 1 every 8 plays?

And so forth

To each his own BUT let me point out one thing here: SAP has an advantage here over NOR. However slight, we can always use all the advantage that we can get.

It came up in a shoe Keith and I were playing side by side at Hollywood that I was playing exactly to the posted NOR rules to verify the posted rules.

The shoe called for OTB4L and all of our bets were the same until we got to about hand 15. Then I note that my bet is on Bank and Keith is on Player. So I check my bet. No, my bet is right. Under NOR rules, OTB4L ALWAYS bets opposite a 2 in a row and there had just been 2 Ps.

What are you doing?

I'm betting 1 on P.

I see that. WHY!

SAP! Most of the 2s have gone to 3.

Shit, you are right! (I change my bet to P)

P won!

See that? NOR would not have picked that up but SAP DID. THAT is the advantage of using the more complex SAP way. And some would argue that it isn't even more complex. Especially if you already know SAP.

I realize I'm getting into really fine points here. BUT, sometimes it is the fine points that put us over the top.

So that is to say if we combine O/R count and SAP count and then choose a table which is biased, we will have a good chance of winning?

I feel that SAP helps to determine the LC and so we will know to go mode 2 or mode 3? But how often do we need to check SAP? Every 10 hands? Also for O/R count do we need to monitor the change in it as well so that we will always be prepared to change our system if necessary?

For e.g. if a shoe goes choppy but mid way changed drastically with a long streak of 13, how do we know SAP will help since there are no indications before the streak. This is only an example shoe i quote but do we play S40 in first 2 columns? then the 13 streak comes will S40 still work or should we change to F? This kind of shoe i have seen many times in Singapore casino.

E.g. B 31211411321

p 31211123311

P [13] 21241321

I am still not sure about the latest NOR modes. Are these correct? Can you enlighten me on the various 3?

1. S40 - lose 3 bets or 4 bets before changing side?

2. F2, 3 - when to lose 2 and when to lose 3 before changing side?

3. OTB4L - still a little confused on this. Also how many times to lose before changing side?

OTB4L means bet on the side opposite the win before last win right?

so if it is BB we bet P,

BP we bet P

PP we bet B

PB we bet B

Correct?

Also how many hands is appropriate before we join the table and play? Will 15 to 20 hands be better than a 40 to 60 hands? Normally a shoe ends around 74 hands from what i noticed in Singapore casino (8 decks) The long streaks normally comes in mid shoe and if i wanna play it safe, would it be better to join early or catch the ending phrase?

Sorry but i think that's a lot of questions one shot. Please dun mind me. =P

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Of course, you must realize by now that we are expecting you to entice at least half of Singapore to become BTC members! Work a deal with Keith. He's always up for that sort of thing. Me? I just teach.

Lol Dr. Ellis you are a funny man! I will put what i learn to test first. If it works for me then my friends will be amazed and join! I am a pretty good affiliate marketer you know. That's what i do for a living anyway hee hee.

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So that is to say if we combine O/R count and SAP count and then choose a table which is biased, we will have a good chance of winning?

I feel that SAP helps to determine the LC and so we will know to go mode 2 or mode 3? But how often do we need to check SAP? Every 10 hands? Also for O/R count do we need to monitor the change in it as well so that we will always be prepared to change our system if necessary?

For e.g. if a shoe goes choppy but mid way changed drastically with a long streak of 13, how do we know SAP will help since there are no indications before the streak. This is only an example shoe i quote but do we play S40 in first 2 columns? then the 13 streak comes will S40 still work or should we change to F? This kind of shoe i have seen many times in Singapore casino.

E.g. B 31211411321

p 31211123311

P [13] 21241321

I am still not sure about the latest NOR modes. Are these correct? Can you enlighten me on the various 3?

1. S40 - lose 3 bets or 4 bets before changing side?

2. F2, 3 - when to lose 2 and when to lose 3 before changing side?

3. OTB4L - still a little confused on this. Also how many times to lose before changing side?

OTB4L means bet on the side opposite the win before last win right?

so if it is BB we bet P,

BP we bet P

PP we bet B

PB we bet B

Correct?

Also how many hands is appropriate before we join the table and play? Will 15 to 20 hands be better than a 40 to 60 hands? Normally a shoe ends around 74 hands from what i noticed in Singapore casino (8 decks) The long streaks normally comes in mid shoe and if i wanna play it safe, would it be better to join early or catch the ending phrase?

Sorry but i think that's a lot of questions one shot. Please dun mind me. =P

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• Users

Hi Witchygal,

Nice to have you in our World's Best Baccarat Forum, especially with our great Father of Modern Baccarat, Dr. Ellis teaching us on his NOR, the integrated World's Best Baccarat Winning Approach!

I live at Johor Bahru, Malaysia and Chua Chu Kang, Singapore. I often play baccarat at Resort Worlds Singapore, Marina Sands Singapore and Genting Casino Malaysia. Still learning from Dr. Ellis and BTC.

I think we are all privileged to learn Baccarat from the World's Best.

I am trying to organize BTC member networking in Malaysia and Singapore, there are now only a handful of us. So, if you or other BTC members here are interested, please feel free to PM me your contact numbers, ok?

Yours Sincerely,

JohnMalaysia (MBA. BBA)

University Putra Malaysia.

University of Cincinnati, USA.

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Hi Witchygal,

Nice to have you in our World's Best Baccarat Forum, especially with our great Father of Modern Baccarat, Dr. Ellis teaching us on his NOR, the integrated World's Best Baccarat Winning Approach!

I live at Johor Bahru, Malaysia and Chua Chu Kang, Singapore. I often play baccarat at Resort Worlds Singapore, Marina Sands Singapore and Genting Casino Malaysia. Still learning from Dr. Ellis and BTC.

I think we are all privileged to learn Baccarat from the World's Best.

I am trying to organize BTC member networking in Malaysia and Singapore, there are now only a handful of us. So, if you or other BTC members here are interested, please feel free to PM me your contact numbers, ok?

Yours Sincerely,

JohnMalaysia (MBA. BBA)

University Putra Malaysia.

University of Cincinnati, USA.

Hi John,

If you could organize a gathering that would be great! I am interested to join you in any discussion or go together for live shoes at RWS or MBS. I am now still studying the 3 systems and practicing on paper first. Perhaps next week i will be ready to go practical for the first time! Let me know ok?

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So that is to say if we combine O/R count and SAP count and then choose a table which is biased, we will have a good chance of winning?

I feel that SAP helps to determine the LC and so we will know to go mode 2 or mode 3? But how often do we need to check SAP? Every 10 hands? Also for O/R count do we need to monitor the change in it as well so that we will always be prepared to change our system if necessary?

For e.g. if a shoe goes choppy but mid way changed drastically with a long streak of 13, how do we know SAP will help since there are no indications before the streak. This is only an example shoe i quote but do we play S40 in first 2 columns? then the 13 streak comes will S40 still work or should we change to F? This kind of shoe i have seen many times in Singapore casino.

E.g. B 31211411321

p 31211123311

P [13] 21241321

I am still not sure about the latest NOR modes. Are these correct? Can you enlighten me on the various 3?

1. S40 - lose 3 bets or 4 bets before changing side?

2. F2, 3 - when to lose 2 and when to lose 3 before changing side?

3. OTB4L - still a little confused on this. Also how many times to lose before changing side?

OTB4L means bet on the side opposite the win before last win right?

so if it is BB we bet P,

BP we bet P

PP we bet B

PB we bet B

Correct?

Also how many hands is appropriate before we join the table and play? Will 15 to 20 hands be better than a 40 to 60 hands? Normally a shoe ends around 74 hands from what i noticed in Singapore casino (8 decks) The long streaks normally comes in mid shoe and if i wanna play it safe, would it be better to join early or catch the ending phrase?

Sorry but i think that's a lot of questions one shot. Please dun mind me. =P

You are right - a lot of questions. I'll try to get to all of them.

In the shoe you detail the SAP count at the time the run of 13 occurred was 12-8-15-4

I would have been in S40, so I would have won the 2 bets prior to the run and the first

in the run. I would have lost the next bet. Looking at my SAP chart I see 2's usually go

to 3, so I bet P and win the next bet (2 units). Next, seeing that 3's usually do not go to

4, I would bet B and lose the next bet (1 unit). At this point I might do one of 2 things:

sit out a hand or jump on the run. If I sit out, I jump on the run next hand. Either way I

am going to hit 8-9 wins. After the run I probably quit. I would not go to F based on one

run. If I stayed in S40 I would be about even the rest of the shoe

You are correct in all 3 examples of OTB4L.

As far as the modes are concerned, with my use of SAP modes are unnecessary. I just

go by the chart

I like to join the shoe when I get a clear indication of what to play. That could come

at any time. I don't have any rule as far as entering the shoe. You will get a feel for

it as you gain experience

Hope this helps.

Paul

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You are right - a lot of questions. I'll try to get to all of them.

In the shoe you detail the SAP count at the time the run of 13 occurred was 12-8-15-4

I would have been in S40, so I would have won the 2 bets prior to the run and the first

in the run. I would have lost the next bet. Looking at my SAP chart I see 2's usually go

to 3, so I bet P and win the next bet (2 units). Next, seeing that 3's usually do not go to

4, I would bet B and lose the next bet (1 unit). At this point I might do one of 2 things:

sit out a hand or jump on the run. If I sit out, I jump on the run next hand. Either way I

am going to hit 8-9 wins. After the run I probably quit. I would not go to F based on one

run. If I stayed in S40 I would be about even the rest of the shoe

You are correct in all 3 examples of OTB4L.

As far as the modes are concerned, with my use of SAP modes are unnecessary. I just

go by the chart

I like to join the shoe when I get a clear indication of what to play. That could come

at any time. I don't have any rule as far as entering the shoe. You will get a feel for

it as you gain experience

Hope this helps.

Paul

Thank you Paul! Finally someone answered my questions!

So just for discussion purpose, S40 will be a better system for this shoe? Will OTB4L work as well? Like you say i would probably get out too once i hit the winning units and not stayed till the streak anyway.

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Witchy, I've been trying to get back to that prior list of questions you had but your middle question was about latest Modes. You aren't seeing this quite right yet. No such thing as "latest Modes". The Modes have always been exactly the same. What changed was merely terminology.

When you read the preliminary NOR manual (The NOR Approach) it is best to start at page 9, the first page written, and work forward. There will shortly be a formal, hard copy NOR manual with all the terminology corrected.

When I started the preliminary NOR manual, I was referring to Modes according to the length of run you were betting under so I said things like "Mode 5" referring to your bet under a 5 in a row.

But then I realized we could standardize to only Modes 2 and 3 for all 3 NOR systems if we went by the number of losing bets rather than the number of circles in the run.

Therefore,

Mode TWO means: After TWO losing bets either stop betting or bet OTR (On The Run)

Mode THREE means: After THREE losing bets either stop betting or bet OTR

Whether you stop betting and wait for the run to end or Bet OTR is decided by if you are seeing runs or not. If you are seeing none of very few runs, there is no point in betting on them. You are further ahead to simply stop betting and resume your system when the run ends. Nor can you simply keep betting forever against all runs. Suppose it goes 9. So, we let the shoe tell us the optimum time to stop betting in that particular shoe as well as whether to bet OTR or wait.

Our next question is once on a run, how long do we stay OTR???

Our rule of thumb is:

Mode 2 try for 2 OTR bets

Mode 3 try for only one.

BUT, if we are seeing lots of long runs (as you seem to be seeing in your casino) then our reasonable course of action is to stay on all runs until they end. Just remember to make separate judgements on ZZ vs straight runs when you are playing OTB4L. On the other hand if we are not seeing long runs we might even not want to risk a second OTR bet in Mode 2. I, very often find myself in that situation at the casinos I frequent. Just the opposite of what you seem to be seeing. All this is determined by a particular casino's card prep and shuffle. So we must be alert to where we are. All casinos are not the same.

Now the most important question Mode brings up: Which Mode should we be in. That is the easiest part. We usually start in Mode 3 until the shoe tells us otherwise. This doesn't cost us anything the way we do it.

System 40: You lose 2 bets to the first 3 in the shoe. STOP and see what would have won. If the 3 stays 3 we are in Mode 3. If the 3 goes to 4 we are in Mode 2 BECAUSE our 3 bet would have won OTR after 2 losing bets.

So in S40 we are interested in 3s vs 4s.

We do OTB4L the SAME way except OTB4L is interested in 4s v 5s instead of 3s v 4s because it is already ON the run for the first 2 circles instead of only the first circle. Also with OTB4L it is critical to look at straight and ZZs separately. 40 is already ON all ZZs.

We do F the same way except F is only interested in 2s v 3s on the wrong side but the decision is still made after 2 or 3 losing bets.

Now, once in a Mode you simply stay in that Mode until it proves wrong. Sometimes it never does. In those shoes +20 or more is virtually guaranteed. esp if we advance to 234 or 345 but DO NOT advance in Mode 3, only Mode 2. You will see why as soon as you try it. Once a Mode loses an initial OTR bet, regardless whether you actually made the bet or not, it changes Modes unless, in spite of the loss that Mode won the most often. Ties go with the latest information.

I realize this all sounds a bit much at first but you'll soon see that it is all plain common sense.

But, will you two see it by next week? Ha, maybe not. You guys are scaring me by talking about going to a casino so soon and you know what? You shouldn't scare old people.

Edited by Guest
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Witchy, I've been trying to get back to that prior list of questions you had but your middle question was about latest Modes. You aren't seeing this quite right yet. No such thing as "latest Modes". The Modes have always been exactly the same. What changed was merely terminology.

When you read the preliminary NOR manual (The NOR Approach) it is best to start at page 9, the first page written, and work forward. There will shortly be a formal, hard copy NOR manual with all the terminology corrected.

When I started the preliminary NOR manual, I was referring to Modes according to the length of run you were betting under so I said things like "Mode 5" referring to your bet under a 5 in a row.

But then I realized we could standardize to only Modes 2 and 3 for all 3 NOR systems if we went by the number of losing bets rather than the number of circles in the run.

Therefore,

Mode TWO means: After TWO losing bets either stop betting or bet OTR (On The Run)

Mode THREE means: After THREE losing bets either stop betting or bet OTR

Whether you stop betting and wait for the run to end or Bet OTR is decided by if you are seeing runs or not. If you are seeing none of very few runs, there is no point in betting on them. You are further ahead to simply stop betting and resume your system when the run ends. Nor can you simply keep betting forever against all runs. Suppose it goes 9. So, we let the shoe tell us the optimum time to stop betting in that particular shoe as well as whether to bet OTR or wait.

Our next question is once on a run, how long do we stay OTR???

Our rule of thumb is:

Mode 2 try for 2 OTR bets

Mode 3 try for only one.

BUT, if we are seeing lots of long runs (as you seem to be seeing in your casino) then our reasonable course of action is to stay on all runs until they end. Just remember to make separate judgements on ZZ vs straight runs when you are playing OTB4L. On the other hand if we are not seeing long runs we might even not want to risk a second OTR bet in Mode 2. I, very often find myself in that situation at the casinos I frequent. Just the opposite of what you seem to be seeing. All this is determined by a particular casino's card prep and shuffle. So we must be alert to where we are. All casinos are not the same.

Now the most important question Mode brings up: Which Mode should we be in. That is the easiest part. We usually start in Mode 3 until the shoe tells us otherwise. This doesn't cost us anything the way we do it.

System 40: You lose 2 bets to the first 3 in the shoe. STOP and see what would have won. If the 3 stays 3 we are in Mode 3. If the 3 goes to 4 we are in Mode 2 BECAUSE our 3 bet would have won OTR after 2 losing bets.

So in S40 we are interested in 3s vs 4s.

We do OTB4L the SAME way except OTB4L is interested in 4s v 5s instead of 3s v 4s because it is already ON the run for the first 2 circles instead of only the first circle. Also with OTB4L it is critical to look at straight and ZZs separately. 40 is already ON all ZZs.

We do F the same way except F is only interested in 2s v 3s on the wrong side but the decision is still made after 2 or 3 losing bets.

Now, once in a Mode you simply stay in that Mode until it proves wrong. Sometimes it never does. In those shoes +20 or more is virtually guaranteed. esp if we advance to 234 or 345 but DO NOT advance in Mode 3, only Mode 2. You will see why as soon as you try it. Once a Mode loses an initial OTR bet, regardless whether you actually made the bet or not, it changes Modes unless, in spite of the loss that Mode won the most often. Ties go with the latest information.

I realize this all sounds a bit much at first but you'll soon see that it is all plain common sense.

But, will you two see it by next week? Ha, maybe not. You guys are scaring me by talking about going to a casino so soon and you know what? You shouldn't scare old people.

Thank you Dr. Ellis for your explanation.

I know the latest NOR systems only consists of mode 2 and mode 3. My confusion was due to the sample shoes posted in past threads and i have seen that members played it differently then and there was as high as 5 losing bets before changing sides?

Now it is simply losing 2 or 3 times before we switch side or stop betting.

S40 mode 2 or 3

F2 or F3

OTB4L mode 2 or 3

that is all in the latest version of NOR am i correct?

Lol i am not scaring you Dr. Ellis. I will make sure that i've practiced enough and understood the 3 systems before i step into the casino. Have a good day!

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As a general statement and directed at everyone but no one in particular but to fill you in on the history of NOR and how it came to be:

I have always played some version of NOR in that I have always played WITH the bias of the shoe. In 30 years I have never found anyone else who does this but neither have I found anyone else who consistently wins.

Nothing in NOR is new other than the name. But I played it using a dozen different mechanical systems instead of only 3. Ha, it's hard enough to teach it with only 3. It was impossible with 12. Even my own people didn't get it. Every time I added a system they deleted the one before it. We were getting nowhere. So standing back and looking at the whole approach of playing biases, I asked myself what is the best approach of teaching this so that ordinary players could understand it.

The first problem was way too many systems so I looked for the best 4 and then the best 3. I boiled 16 shoe types down to only 3 so now I only needed 3 systems but they had to be the best 3 or more accurately, the 3 that were the most effective against each of the 3 shoe types. That took some doing and some time but I am totally confident now that we have the best 3 systems.

Next came actual casino testing to the preliminary rules. I was hoping that I could demonstrate that only 3 systems was almost as good as 12.

But then a strange thing happened. The whole concept actually worked BETTER with only 3 systems. In after thought, there were reasons for this, not the least of which was simplicity makes for fewer mistakes. But who really cares why?

What struck me like a bolt of lightening was that my historical hit rate, (hands won ratio) which was always good, went UP very dramatically. And my P.A. which I had been recording every shoe for 30 years went right up with it to PAs I thought were impossible. No one was more shocked than me. My PAs were so hi I no longer needed to bet my traditional U1D2 M2. I could afford to be far more conservative. And that improved my PA even more.

This whole thing needed a whole new start. So first, it needed a new name. Hence NOR.

Yeah, yeah, I admit I could have been a little more creative. But I'm not a Marketeer. I'm first and foremost a teacher and then a player. What's in a name? As long as it works. And this thing works better than anything I've ever seen and I've seen a lot.

That's how it was, heading West!

Edited by Guest
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• 2 weeks later...
As a general statement and directed at everyone but no one in particular but to fill you in on the history of NOR and how it came to be:

I have always played some version of NOR in that I have always played WITH the bias of the shoe. In 30 years I have never found anyone else who does this but neither have I found anyone else who consistently wins.

Nothing in NOR is new other than the name. But I played it using a dozen different mechanical systems instead of only 3. Ha, it's hard enough to teach it with only 3. It was impossible with 12. Even my own people didn't get it. Every time I added a system they deleted the one before it. We were getting nowhere. So standing back and looking at the whole approach of playing biases, I asked myself what is the best approach of teaching this so that ordinary players could understand it.

The first problem was way too many systems so I looked for the best 4 and then the best 3. I boiled 16 shoe types down to only 3 so now I only needed 3 systems but they had to be the best 3 or more accurately, the 3 that were the most effective against each of the 3 shoe types. That took some doing and some time but I am totally confident now that we have the best 3 systems.

Next came actual casino testing to the preliminary rules. I was hoping that I could demonstrate that only 3 systems was almost as good as 12.

But then a strange thing happened. The whole concept actually worked BETTER with only 3 systems. In after thought, there were reasons for this, not the least of which was simplicity makes for fewer mistakes. But who really cares why?

What struck me like a bolt of lightening was that my historical hit rate, (hands won ratio) which was always good, went UP very dramatically. And my P.A. which I had been recording every shoe for 30 years went right up with it to PAs I thought were impossible. No one was more shocked than me. My PAs were so hi I no longer needed to bet my traditional U1D2 M2. I could afford to be far more conservative. And that improved my PA even more.

This whole thing needed a whole new start. So first, it needed a new name. Hence NOR.

Yeah, yeah, I admit I could have been a little more creative. But I'm not a Marketeer. I'm first and foremost a teacher and then a player. What's in a name? As long as it works. And this thing works better than anything I've ever seen and I've seen a lot.

That's how it was, heading West!

Is there any correlation between number of hands and Number of events? I am collecting data to do a summary on this .

For example : at event 6 is the number of hands is between 6-12 we play OTB or S40 something like that

if more than 12 etc we play f2 or f3

Can this be a method besides using O/R count ?

Regards,

Vinfong

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Is there any correlation between number of hands and Number of events? I am collecting data to do a summary on this .

For example : at event 6 is the number of hands is between 6-12 we play OTB or S40 something like that

if more than 12 etc we play f2 or f3

Can this be a method besides using O/R count ?

Regards,

Vinfong

Well it is an interesting thought. On avg. the number of events = 1/2 the number of hands played thus far.

This is why 2s are neutral. (They have no effect on the OR count and do not move it in either direction.)

So if the No. of events is more than half the number of hands, the shoe is choppy, favoring S40.

If the No. of events is less than half the number of hands, the shoe is streaky favoring F.

If events is hovering around half of hands the shoe is neutral = OTB4L.

That is a good thing to know from the standpoint of overall Baccarat knowledge but I don't immediately see how that tells you any more about system selection than the OR count. But the thought demonstrates that you are beginning to see the big picture of Baccarat mathematics and frequency of occurrence. In other words, you are beginning to see what most players fail to see and therefore have no way to gain an advantage. But YOU DO.

Eventually you are better off to note which events are high in a given shoe and which events are low and decide system selection by the likes and dislikes of each of the 3 systems.

S40 likes 1's most but also likes 2s.

OTB4L likes 2s most but also likes 3s and single 1's.

F likes 3 or mores most but also likes 1's, especially multiple 1's (ZZs) and Strong Side.

Every shoe ever dealt has someting one of the 3 NOR systems likes AND something one of the 3 NOR systems does not like.

That is the best way to select your system. But until you automatically see that, the OR count is second best.

An excess of 1s cause a + OR count. = S40

3 or mores cause a - OR count. = F

2s don't do anything to the OR count. = OTB4L

But you can't plan on a shoe favoring a certain system forever. That is why it is good to know what stop win goes with what prog.

123 4 = +10 (after that you are asking for trouble)

234 = +15 or 20 (after that you are asking for trouble)

345 = +20 or 30 (after that you are asking for trouble)

Staying in a shoe passed those stop wins is gallant but stupid, unless you hit your stop win very early. But even then.....

Edited by Guest

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