ImSpirit

[Guest]

Since our friend Dave posted on his blog, ImSpirit, something that touches on Baccarat, I replied, particularly since Dave is one of many who thinks Baccarat is random. If you are interested go here http://imspirit.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/the-law-of-small-numbers/

[Echo4Wiske]

That was a good article, and some great points were made.. As usual, your rebuttal was even better.. I've been playing live baccarat at the casinos for little over two weeks now.. I constantly see people fighting the biases of the shoe, while losing all their money, saying that the shoe will average out.. Even my little experience has shown me that every shoe has its biases' and it is pointless to fight against it.. Like you say Ellis, it separates us from them.. The winners from the losers.. I just got back from the tables and I made $250 in less than 3 hrs.. All because I follow your system and understand that any player that follows the biases' of the shoe can win consistently.. They can keep their math, I'll take the money!! LOL :-)

[kachatz1]

Since our friend Dave posted on his blog, ImSpirit, something that touches on Baccarat, I replied, particularly since Dave is one of many who thinks Baccarat is random. If you are interested go here http://imspirit.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/the-law-of-small-numbers/

Dave is a very kind, well-meaning individual whose ImSpirit posts present an unbiased look at the situation at hand.

I met him in PA at the Fall seminar last year, and really liked him...also observed him playing in Chicago when the Rivers Casino first opened up.

He is looking at Bac from a truly un-biased STATS standpoint, and his analyses of playing 100, 1000, 1 million shoes and the probabilities for diff outcomes are enjoyable and enlightening. What Dave ( nor anyone, really) has ever been able to adequately/succinctly/verifiably/quantitatively explain with a high degree of certainty is the "mental edge" one gains from playing many, many shoes...in many, many casinos...with consideration for time-of-day/shoe biases, etc. as they relate to winning some shoes/losing others ( YES, Ellis, this is a lot of what you are saying!!!)

Frankly speaking, the more you play NOR with a good MM system, good stop-loss parameters and a willingness to quit while you are ahead ( or behind) , I find the better off your chances of winning 1 shoe/1 session/ I week or whatever interval of measurement you choose.

Zumma 600, Zumma 1000, etc, etc, etc. is all just theoretical, and one interpretation in the NOR road to switch systems can change the outcome dramatically going forward.

To all of us who look at this game and enjoy the very real prospect of making money on a regular basis ( not every shoe/not every session/ not every week)...BUT winning the majority of the time, let the games keep on coming...

[davelevad]

Dave is a very kind, well-meaning individual whose ImSpirit posts present an unbiased look at the situation at hand.

I met him in PA at the Fall seminar last year, and really liked him...also observed him playing in Chicago when the Rivers Casino first opened up.

He is looking at Bac from a truly un-biased STATS standpoint, and his analyses of playing 100, 1000, 1 million shoes and the probabilities for diff outcomes are enjoyable and enlightening. What Dave ( nor anyone, really) has ever been able to adequately/succinctly/verifiably/quantitatively explain with a high degree of certainty is the "mental edge" one gains from playing many, many shoes...in many, many casinos...with consideration for time-of-day/shoe biases, etc. as they relate to winning some shoes/losing others ( YES, Ellis, this is a lot of what you are saying!!!)

Frankly speaking, the more you play NOR with a good MM system, good stop-loss parameters and a willingness to quit while you are ahead ( or behind) , I find the better off your chances of winning 1 shoe/1 session/ I week or whatever interval of measurement you choose.

Zumma 600, Zumma 1000, etc, etc, etc. is all just theoretical, and one interpretation in the NOR road to switch systems can change the outcome dramatically going forward.

To all of us who look at this game and enjoy the very real prospect of making money on a regular basis ( not every shoe/not every session/ not every week)...BUT winning the majority of the time, let the games keep on coming...

Thanks, Kevin! I appreciate the kind words. Didn't know you were watching me play at Rivers. Funny thing is I always won at Rivers. Problem with Rivers, though, is it's so crowded, so a shoe takes forever to play. Seems like everyone has migrated from Horseshoe over to Rivers.

Yeah, I wish I were able to witness a lot more real-time play of winners such as yourself and Ellis. Also, Archer (Jim), too, who likewise claims to have attained his own mastery of the game. I can name a dozen others, too, including, of course, Mark Maverick Teruya, all of whom belong to what I call the "Sixth Sigma Club."

Kudos to all of you, and may you all enjoy continued winnings.

Dave

[Keith Smith]

Yeah, I wish I were able to witness a lot more real-time play of winners such as yourself and Ellis. Also, Archer (Jim), too, who likewise claims to have attained his own mastery of the game. I can name a dozen others, too, including, of course, Mark Maverick Teruya, all of whom belong to what I call the "Sixth Sigma Club."

Yes but I wonder if any of the really have any idea what you are talking about when you refer to them as in the Six Sigma club and if they studied statistics as it related to process variation. Which is really what we are trying to identify in these Baccarat Games

[davelevad]

Yes but I wonder if any of the really have any idea what you are talking about when you refer to them as in the Six Sigma club and if they studied statistics as it related to process variation. Which is really what we are trying to identify in these Baccarat Games

Congrats, Keith ... a card-carrying Six Sigma member!

[kachatz1]

Yeah, I wish I were able to witness a lot more real-time play of winners such as yourself and Ellis. Also, Archer (Jim), too, who likewise claims to have attained his own mastery of the game. I can name a dozen others, too, including, of course, Mark Maverick Teruya, all of whom belong to what I call the "Sixth Sigma Club."

Yes but I wonder if any of the really have any idea what you are talking about when you refer to them as in the Six Sigma club and if they studied statistics as it related to process variation. Which is really what we are trying to identify in these Baccarat Games

No degrees in THAT , but here are some real-life observations of statistics as they relate to process variation. I think our membership will have many others to add...maybe it is seven-sigma?

(1) When my kids were very young, I noticed that my wife and I had to find a way to encourage them to pick up after themselves ( their toys, their messes, etc.) initially, we just gave them some sort of "treat" like candy, or whatever, then left them alone to do the dirty work...Result? little in the way of cleaning up, but the dentist always had a smile on his face. So we varied the "process", and instead of candy I demonstrated what a few licks from my black belt could leave on their little hind-ends if they did not comply. No, not a six-sigma black belt, just one I used to hold my pants up ...remarkably, we noticed an incredible increase in the percentage of times they complied with our request! Just the image of me standing there in the room with them and starting to unbuckle that belt seemed to work wonders. Certainly an example of process variation at work...

(2) Some time after that, we bought dogs for each of them...I'll never forget how happy they seemed the day we visited the pet store and they each got to pick out their own puppy, and give them a name. Well, anyone who has ever owned a puppy knows it has to be cared for properly, and in the case of dogs, they need to be trained to only do their business outside of the house, not in it....sure enough, a short time after admitting Misty and Brandy into our homes, my wife complained to me that the kids took little interest in feeding them regularly, and had no interest at all in letting them outside several times a day so thy could do their business. Repeated discussions and admonitions proved fruitless, so after about a week I decided to vary the process so that each night after the kids fell asleep I let the dogs out of their cages and put their respective pet in their bedroom with them, and closed the door. Sure enough, each morning there was a "puppy mess" on the bed, or on the floor in each kids' room, to which they resoundingly reacted negatively to the smell and having to clean it up themselves. Alas, things got much better quickly and both kids understood the value of taking care of their "property" and the messes were all left outside in the yard...was it a 100% statistical improvement? Hard to quantify/measure, but it sure was a decent % and I am sure directly related to the process variation which was introduced...

(3) Now here we are 14 years later, the kids are grown up, and have advanced professional degrees. Several years back, we found that a "family plan" was the best way to keep our cell phone expenses to a minimum, so we sat down together and carefully laid out how much each family member would pay towards the monthly expenses. Naturally, in the beginning, the checks were sent to Mom right on time every month, and she dutifully paid the bill...and just as naturally, as time went by, both kids had to be reminded that they needed to send in their share of the monthly bill on a "regular" ( ie, monthly) basis...so, about six months ago and after many reminders to both about their responsibility for timely payment, I recognized that it was time for yet another process variation...so I called At&T and had both of their numbers disconnected ( but kept them on our plan so we did not lose the #'s to another party). Lo and behold, after a few days of Dad being blamed for all manner of evil doings and irresponsibility , the phones were turned back on and neither has missed a payment since!

The point of all this is just like Keith so aptly stated...it is certain that while few among us hold advanced degrees in statistics, we are all very capable and have learned over the course of our varied lives the impact that "process variation" can have on the outcome of a series of events. Yes, I have long since had to move up a few sizes in belts, I have subsequently learned that the kids named their dogs Misty and Brandy because they thought it a great joke to play on their parents to assign the girls common "stripper" names , and At&T will carry on long after I have cancelled our cell phone contract completely.

So when you think about NOR and it's application to making you money, fret not that it "seems" difficult to learn, sometimes "feels" impossible to apply perfectly to each and every shoe, and is in no way an assurance of winning every single time!

In short, it is a simple set of concepts that will enable you to apply a process variation to the way most people approach baccarat, and along the way you will enjoy statistically much better winnings...

Good luck to all!