Jump to content

playing headsup versus the csm


Recommended Posts

yesterday I have played in one of the european casinos versus the csm.

I have some questions. although I have lost my nbj manual I still know about what I have to do.

Some observations....


  • When people go desperate always changing the number of boxes the game with a csm becomes unstable


  • Less than 6 inclusive dealer (optimal for progressions 112 123 134 and so on. (csm random)


  • 6 and more spots inclusive dealer clumping starts to be visible and progression do not solve it. Now flatbetting becomes a winner or you might use oscar grind progression setting goal at winning 1 unit. Losing 3 times in a row leave!

Now questions.

  • YOu come to a empty table! You are gonna play headsup. What do i do?

I can not assume the cards are random or non random cause I have no information what happened before.
  • What I have to look at while playing headsup and how long I have to play non basic before I can assume the cards are random in order to start 112 123 134 and so on!

How to bet when I am entering the table? Just bet oscar or missing method of patterson betting ( I asked for that in this forum, winners handbook from jerry patterson) In order to feel the table than if things are green light I am going to bet nbj progressions.

Thanks for the answer in advance!:rolleyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yesterday I have played in one of the european casinos versus the csm.

I have some questions. although I have lost my nbj manual I still know about what I have to do.

Some observations....


  • When people go desperate always changing the number of boxes the game with a csm becomes unstable


  • Less than 6 inclusive dealer (optimal for progressions 112 123 134 and so on. (csm random)


  • 6 and more spots inclusive dealer clumping starts to be visible and progression do not solve it. Now flatbetting becomes a winner or you might use oscar grind progression setting goal at winning 1 unit. Losing 3 times in a row leave!

Now questions.

  • YOu come to a empty table! You are gonna play headsup. What do i do?

I can not assume the cards are random or non random cause I have no information what happened before.
  • What I have to look at while playing headsup and how long I have to play non basic before I can assume the cards are random in order to start 112 123 134 and so on!

How to bet when I am entering the table? Just bet oscar or missing method of patterson betting ( I asked for that in this forum, winners handbook from jerry patterson) In order to feel the table than if things are green light I am going to bet nbj progressions.

Thanks for the answer in advance!:rolleyes:

Well, your observations are pretty much correct except as previously noted. So let's go to your main question: What do you do when you find an empty table?

First, you DO have information:

What is the time of day?

When did the pit open?

Have the cards been previously played?

Often, you can tell at a glance: dirty ash trays, left over cups or glasses, etc.

And you can simply ask the dealer. You can tell if she is being truthful.

But new cards don't guarantee random so you still want to start out cautiously - certainly no more than a 123 at table min. Also don't bet a 2 until you have won a 1. (The cards may contain boxed card order clumping - not good.)

Even though the table is empty, sit at third (last seat)

So OK, the game is on:

You don't need to see a lot of cards to know if they are random:

Are high vs lows coming out pretty much intermittantly or in clumps either clean or dirty?

If random, go right into your 123. (If not, it's best to leave.)

If doing well with 123, quickly advance to 134.

The key is: Are you winning your second bets most of the time???

If you are and you haven't lost 3 in a row, advance to 146.

Why? Because that is the prog you can afford to lose the most and still come out OK.

Work in piles of 12 (or ten with black chips).

Every time you finish 3 new piles, double the stakes and double your pile height.

If a second player gets in, back off until you see his effect on the game.

Or, you can stop playing altogether and see if he goes away. Most will.

Your stop loss is your partial pile plus the prior pile. BUT, watch for the worm to turn and use your stop loss as a last resort.

Now you're playing the game!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple more tips:

Recognize that head to head play randomizes the cards because the cards are picked up exactly the same way regardless if you win, lose or break. Head to head play not only perpetuates randomness, it also creates randomness. Therefore even if cards were already played, a prior head to head player leaves the cards random. Basic Strategy alone beats random cards. So head to head gives you a double whammy. You not only beat random cards, you make them even more random and therefore more playable.

You won't find this stuff in your Handbook. That book was strictly for beginners and perhaps improved them from a 15% loser to a 10% loser.

Comparing that to NBJ is like comparing a tricycle to a Porche!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And more tips!

Recognize that except with brand new cards the lowest stakes red games are the most difficult to win because the cards have been played the most in the whole casino.

Therefore you will find the best games at the green tables and when the green tables clump you need to switch to black. The high stakes parlors are usually the best games in the casino but even those can over clump with enough play.

Sure, we teach the NBJ First Base System for clumped cards but that is a last resort. You are best off with 3rd base against random cards.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Recognize that except with brand new cards the lowest stakes red games are the most difficult to win because the cards have been played the most in the whole casino".

I think that csm's with the 3 or 4 spots occupied will be the best spots It will also generate very fast random situation playing not more than 3 spots with dealer being spot 4. and headsup of course From 5 or more csm clumps and should also be avoided.. I just want to be verifying the thought process of you in a way I am correct.

Against the random cards we play basic strategy not anymore the nbj strategy or a situation is obvious. If you see clumped game you say get the **** out of the game and wait for a better game to come.

Thanks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And more tips!

Therefore you will find the best games at the green tables and when the green tables clump you need to switch to black. The high stakes parlors are usually the best games in the casino but even those can over clump with enough play.

They just put in a new High Stakes section at the casino in my area. I was there last Friday… I normally don’t play on Friday nights because it’s too crowded. The green tables were way too crowded, but I noticed that the high stakes room was virtually empty all night ($100 min). So I figured I would test it out. Boy was I nervous, since I’m not used to playing that high… but I had faith in the teachings here. The shoe was great, the dealer broke A LOT and I ended up walking away with $2000. All just using basic strategy with our betting prog.

After watching clumped games over and over and then watching a good random game, it really opens your eyes. But that makes me wonder: Since casinos know basic strategy can beat random cards, and the high limit tables are the best most random games for the most part… how can they even allow that to happen and even have high limit tables? If people play high limit, you can pretty much assume they play and know basic strategy very well. Do the casinos still win those tables because those people don’t bet correctly or know when to stop? Or are they just hoping for more players so it will clump? Makes me think they would use some card prep trick...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They just put in a new High Stakes section at the casino in my area. I was there last Friday… I normally don’t play on Friday nights because it’s too crowded. The green tables were way too crowded, but I noticed that the high stakes room was virtually empty all night ($100 min). So I figured I would test it out. Boy was I nervous, since I’m not used to playing that high… but I had faith in the teachings here. The shoe was great, the dealer broke A LOT and I ended up walking away with $2000. All just using basic strategy with our betting prog.

After watching clumped games over and over and then watching a good random game, it really opens your eyes. But that makes me wonder: Since casinos know basic strategy can beat random cards, and the high limit tables are the best most random games for the most part… how can they even allow that to happen and even have high limit tables? If people play high limit, you can pretty much assume they play and know basic strategy very well. Do the casinos still win those tables because those people don’t bet correctly or know when to stop? Or are they just hoping for more players so it will clump? Makes me think they would use some card prep trick...

All of the above!

They count on winning players playing until they lose - that is usually the case. Yes, most know basic strategy but that is not enough. They know nothing of optimum player number, or clumping or noting what is running. Many are card counters and the casino knows they can beat card counters, especially with random cards. Many will play multiple hands because they don't know better. Some play up as you win which may do OK in craps but gets killed in BJ. Don't assume players know what they are doing just because they bet a lot of money. All that really means is they HAVE a lot of money - at least for now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Recognize that except with brand new cards the lowest stakes red games are the most difficult to win because the cards have been played the most in the whole casino".

I think that csm's with the 3 or 4 spots occupied will be the best spots It will also generate very fast random situation playing not more than 3 spots with dealer being spot 4. and headsup of course From 5 or more csm clumps and should also be avoided.. I just want to be verifying the thought process of you in a way I am correct.

Against the random cards we play basic strategy not anymore the nbj strategy or a situation is obvious. If you see clumped game you say get the **** out of the game and wait for a better game to come.

Thanks

Yes, you are mostly correct. Just a couple of pointers.

We never include the dealer when referring to the number of players. That saves you from having to explain yourself every time.

3 players is usually OK but not always. One or 2 is better.

Clumped games virtually never turn random except when played head to head for quite a while. Likewise bad games seldom turn good.

You stand the best chance of finding a random game with new cards soon after the pit opens. But new cards don't guarantee random. Some card preps leave boxed card order clumping. Not good.

Always test CSM games. There is a lot more going on with these machines than meets the eye.

Likewise be wary of hand held games where the dealer holds the deck at eye level. It is easy to deal seconds holding the cards that way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They know nothing of optimum player number, or clumping or noting what is running.

Yea that’s a good point. That brings me to another question:

I feel like I could have won more by noting what was running. The shoe was random, but I did notice a few clumps. For instance, there was one point where 10’s were running... I had a 9 vs. an 8 up. I wanted to double down, but I didn’t because everything was random overall. As it turns out, I would have won that double with a 19 vs. dealer 18. How do you decide if and when to play the small number of clumps in a random shoe with enhanced card play?

Another reason I feel like I could have won more was adjusting my betting prog better. I feel like I stayed with a 112 and a 123 too long. Also I backed down too much. How quickly do you recommend moving up to a 134 and 146? When do you recommend moving back down? After winning/losing a certain number of 2 and 3 bets?

Also... a question about the stop loss. If we are in the middle of a progression, but the next bet would take us below the stop loss, do we make that bet? That’s what happened to me - I got out with my 2 stacks, but I was on a 2 bet that would have taken me below my stop loss. I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if I played and won, since the shoe was going good...

THANKS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea that’s a good point. That brings me to another question:

I feel like I could have won more by noting what was running. The shoe was random, but I did notice a few clumps. For instance, there was one point where 10’s were running... I had a 9 vs. an 8 up. I wanted to double down, but I didn’t because everything was random overall. As it turns out, I would have won that double with a 19 vs. dealer 18. How do you decide if and when to play the small number of clumps in a random shoe with enhanced card play?

Another reason I feel like I could have won more was adjusting my betting prog better. I feel like I stayed with a 112 and a 123 too long. Also I backed down too much. How quickly do you recommend moving up to a 134 and 146? When do you recommend moving back down? After winning/losing a certain number of 2 and 3 bets?

Also... a question about the stop loss. If we are in the middle of a progression, but the next bet would take us below the stop loss, do we make that bet? That’s what happened to me - I got out with my 2 stacks, but I was on a 2 bet that would have taken me below my stop loss. I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if I played and won, since the shoe was going good...

THANKS

Wow! Excellent observations and questions:

Shoes that stay random all the way through are extremely rare. There is virtually always an accidental high clump or two. These clumps nearly always survive the shuffle. Watch for them and play them as they come up. Some even note the cards preceding the clump so they have some warning.

A 112 is only good when you are winning your first bet but losing your second bet - not a great situation. You want to be winning your first or second bet the vast majority of the time. That defines a good game. In such a game you want to advance to the 123 immediately. When that goes well you want to QUICKLY advance to the 134 and if still OK the 146. Good games, especially 6 deck do not usually stay that way. But 8 deck can last all day long. CSMs you must watch for the worm to turn.

No, do not ignore your stop loss even if in the middle of a prog. The stop loss likely came up because the game was going South. I never stay to see what would have happened. Would ofs, should ofs and could ofs don't count. You walked away with their money. That's a whole lot better than most do. That's what counts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...
And more tips!

Recognize that except with brand new cards the lowest stakes red games are the most difficult to win because the cards have been played the most in the whole casino.

Therefore you will find the best games at the green tables and when the green tables clump you need to switch to black. The high stakes parlors are usually the best games in the casino but even those can over clump with enough play.

Sure, we teach the NBJ First Base System for clumped cards but that is a last resort. You are best off with 3rd base against random cards.

You are rite dude,

This is very nice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use