Betting Progressions Pros, Cons and Reflections

[bluetri]

With the recent discussions on NOR+, I was thinking we need a thread that discusses the various betting progressions in our arsenal. Hoping we could discuss Pros (like the fourth bet in the 123 4) as well as Cons (like the wide swings of progs like U1D2) of each prog. (don't get me wrong, I LOVE U1D2). Also, personal likes/dislikes i.e. I hate to start a prog anywhere near the end of a shoe. Also, hoping to discuss which types of shoes are best suited for each prog, when is a 112 a good prog, when is a 0 bet the best move, lost prog recovery, etc. Basically a thread on ALL things PROG! Hoping to gleen knowledge from various viewpoints.

Chris

[Guest]

With the recent discussions on NOR+, I was thinking we need a thread that discusses the various betting progressions in our arsenal. Hoping we could discuss Pros (like the fourth bet in the 123 4) as well as Cons (like the wide swings of progs like U1D2) of each prog. (don't get me wrong, I LOVE U1D2). Also, personal likes/dislikes i.e. I hate to start a prog anywhere near the end of a shoe. Also, hoping to discuss which types of shoes are best suited for each prog, when is a 112 a good prog, when is a 0 bet the best move, lost prog recovery, etc. Basically a thread on ALL things PROG! Hoping to gleen knowledge from various viewpoints.

Chris

This is an excellent idea Chris because it gets right to the root of how we play both Bac and BJ. (NOR and NBJ)

I will have more to say about this after I get back from the hospital hopefully in about a week. But I have a few minutes right now.

There are 3 major basic ways of betting, Flat Betting, Advantage Betting and Progressive Betting.

Flat betting: We all know what this is - always betting the same amount. Mathematicians tend to land on this style of betting because they assume everything is random. And for them, it is. Most have not studied the intricacies of gambling and have no experience in shuffle technology. Casinos DO BTW. And so do I.

It would be good if we could get Dave, Virtuoid at ImSpirit, to take up for the Mathematicians point of view. Dave is an excellent Mathematician whom I highly respect and would do justice for that point of view. In fact, I'll ask him to do so.

But suffice it to say for now: they are RIGHT. If all bets carry the same odds of winning, 50/50, then flat betting would be the way to go. In fact the same view point would also conclude: Don't gamble in the first place. I would never argue against that point of view.

I do not teach people to gamble. I teach people who are going to gamble anyway, how to gamble better.

But let me say for the record here: I have never known of, or even heard of, a flat bettor who is a bottom line, year end winner.

Advantage Betting: You have a low bet and a high bet. You bet the low bet when you have no advantage and the high bet when you do. We do not use this in Bac because no play has more advantage than any other play. But we do use Advantage Betting in NBJ for the NBJ First Base system only. We bet our high bet when the last round ended high because the first base player gets the next card out of the shoe. If his first card is a ten value card or an Ace, his chance of winning the hand go from 43% (random odds) to about 74% - a huge advantage.

BJ card counting uses Advantage Betting and their gurus argue vehemently against Progressive Betting pretty much saying it is suicidal. I could write a book about this argument, and actually have, But I'll side step the argument for our purposes here and simply say they are RIGHT! The way THEY play BJ, Progressive Betting IS suicidal!

Progressive Betting: First we can eliminate up as you win progressions because I don't use them except in very rare circumstances and I don't teach them.

So we are talking about up as you lose progressions, the very same progressions that both Mathematicians and Card Counting gurus argue AGAINST. And they would be RIGHT if everything was random.

So the real question is: Is everything random?

Let's take BJ first because it is more obvious: Anyone, with a brain, who has played BJ on a crowded Saturday night at any casino KNOWS that the cards are NOT random. Highs follow highs and lows follow lows FAR more than they randomly should. It is totally obvious. There are sound and simple reasons why this is so which I won't go into here. Suffice it to say for our purposes here that the cards are "clumped".

What do card counters think they are counting for crying out loud??? They are counting the degree of clumping. They just don't realize it.

LOOK, I can count cards too - faster and better than most. I can count down a deck of cards in 13 seconds and tell you whether the card you removed was high, low, or neutral. I challenge any card counting guru to do that.

But unlike them, I gave card counting a very thorough trial IN THE CASINOS. I can tell you, first hand, that card counting does not work. But it is good for ONE thing. Card counting PROVES, beyond all doubt, that the cards are NOT random. Many times I got to a count in the 30's in 6 deck BJ in the casino. Random cards CANNOT get to counts in the 30's. You can prove this to yourself at home. Shuffle 6 decks of cards to a random condition. This will take a while - arguably about 1000 shuffles. Then do a BJ card count. You won't get anywhere near a +30 count. You'll be lucky to even get to +15.

In a casino, cards are not random in a mature BJ game. If they were, Basic Strategy alone would beat BJ. But it doesn't, does it? Also the dealer would break 28% of the time. But she doesn't, does she.

Baccarat uses the same shuffles and the same shuffle machines that BJ uses.

Here are a couple of other facts if you are not already convinced,

Back in the late '80s and early '90s all casinos used the same Baccarat shuffle. It required the fanning of the undealt cards through the rest of the shoe and then a double BJ type shuffle. If you watched this shuffle, as I did hundreds of times, you would swear those cards had to be random. But they weren't. We saw 20 - 26 in a rows on virtually a daily basis, sometimes two in the same shoe. Look, the odds of an 8 in a row are one in 8 shoes. Sure, 20 - 26 in a rows are possible when measured against infinity but not on a daily basis. You never saw one in your life, did you. Why? Because the casinos lost their shirt on them so they got rid of them through the same shuffle technology they learned in BJ.

But the opposite has also occurred. The first casino I know of to go to preshuffled cards was in Australia. I was sent many cards from this casino. Every card was ridiculously choppy. Twice as many one and two in a rows as is normal in random cards. No 4 or mores at all. Card after card.

What does this all mean? That casinos know how to produce streak and they know how to produce chop.

What else do they know???

OK, that is all I have time for, for now. I'll try to get back to this in about a week.

Meanwhile you guys might comment on what strange things you have seen in casinos.

Also meanwhile you might try this experiment. Most say it takes 7 shuffles to make a single deck of cards random. Others say 25. Take a new deck of cards in boxed card order. Shuffle 7 times the best you can. I'll guarantee you, you'll still see remnants of the boxed card order when you spread these "shuffled" cards out. Try it. What are the rules for casino shuffles? TWICE.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Guest

[kachatz1]

Chris-

Excellent idea, and sure to become an update to West Coast Steve's "updated" NOR manual...definitely deserves its own section..

So here are my thoughts:

1) Lots of stuff already on the forum about PROGRESSIONS/PROGRESSIVE BETTING...most of it dating back to 2009/2010 so definitely time for an update/advanced discussion ( private forum members can google the prior posts...)

2) No discussion complete w/o a look at stop loss/stop win parameters in the mix

3) We learn NOR to be S40/F/OTB4L...all good, but really anyone wants to understand NOR roots, they need look no further than the "DISPARITY" posts from 2009 addressing the following:

PvB disparity

OvR disparity

OTB4LvTBL disparity

Why is this important??

Because wouldn't our ultimate goal be to come-up with a way to approach/suggest/apply MM "betting progressions" ( both UP and DOWN!) "linked" to the shoe type/history/where it is "in the moment"...

Heavy Opposite?...Likely suggests a certain approach...

Heavy TBL?...Likely another approach....

Notice that P or B are running rampant over the other side, and are the Biggest Disparity in the shoe?...need to know that, in that case, we should "USE THIS PROGRESSION" APPROACH ( might have to change mid shoe...)

I started a thread back in November, 2012 that talked about betting progression "histories"...where they came from, how they work, what they are good for,why how/when they "lose"...SURELY A "PROGRESSION 101 " primer for anyone really wants to understand progressions...( Chris, I know you took a look at it back in November...). I am not touting the book ( it was authored over 100 years ago!!), but I am saying that truth-be-told, most anything we come up with today is rooted in stuff that has been around a long time...they just did not have Baccarat/Gambling forums or the internet to instantaneously "promote/discuss/modify" !!

but we can...

This is exciting... I am sure Ellis will find this creative endeavor a very intriguing "puzzle" to help us all solve, and I know he has a lot of resources to help us all out... I follow Dave Lavedad/ImSpirit's "stuff" ( he was at the PA NOR seminar, and is the one followed Keith and Ellis to Atlantic City after the seminar,and lived to tell the tale!), and surely he would help us out, as Ellis references in his reply to your post...

I am thinking that this progression enhancement ( by shoe type) addition to NOR would serve to establish even more that in the Baccarat Universe, NOR is ir-refutably/ "hands down"/ no-doubt-about-it THE BEST BACCARAT STRATEGY/APPROACH of all time ( P.S. - I do not like the word "system", likely just my own prejudice)

This will be a great thread, and I think all serious BTC players will be posting...

Currently, here in the States, our United States government is contemplating a change to its own Constittution, established several hundred years ago, involving its citizens' "right to bear arms"

As far as our "right to bear arms"/use-any-weapon at our disposal versus the Casino, we can write our own "laws"!!

Great idea , Chris...now we have to follow LARRY THE CABLE GUY's advice and "git'er'done"!

[Guest]

Only got a second but right, "System" is no longer the right word for what we do either in Bac or BJ. "Approach" is a better word but I find even it lacking.

[kachatz1]

Only got a second but right, "System" is no longer the right word for what we do either in Bac or BJ. "Approach" is a better word but I find even it lacking.

We can reach an agreement on "WHAT-2-Call-IT" when needed....

I am most excited thatoutside of application of NOR concepts/play ( even NOR+) , this is ( IMHO) the most important "proceed-at-your-own-risk- if -U-choose-2-ignore-I.T. topic" about LT Bac Success!

Plainly,it is T.H.E. "do this for max return on your bets" topic... we have something to discuss/ evaluate which transcends all geographic boundaries, all countries, all languages....and it is right-in-line/fits the day-to-day needs of all our constituents...

And e.c.d., outside of your incomparable mastery of "winning-friends,and influencing-people" ,with your incredible grasp of both verbal and mathematical communications/concepts as pertains to OUR GAME, I no -doubt expect a high rate of participation in the debate/discusion ...

FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD!

Yowzah!!

vegas, singapore, new jersey, bahamas, uk, canada, macau, costa rica, italy....UNameIT!

MyOpinion? if we do not get it worked-out here, for all to understand, then our forum is either hearing-impaired or just "tone-deaf", meaning they just do not understand enough about Bac to know they must know/recognize "how -best" to maximixe their wins, and minimize their losses...

By the same token,we must be certain we can ULTIMATELY SUM-IT-UP, as " here is how to do it..." ...now we have combined Best Placement/Bet Selection with the best-in-class MM application ( by shoe type) ...AND WE HAVE A WINNER EVEN THE KEITH-STER WILL LOVE FOR ITS ULTIMATE APPEAL TO CURRENT forum members, and new "recruits" !!

Once we combine an addition to NOR manual with a solid, well-vetted approach to "progression-betting-advice , by shoe type" , we will be rockin' the house!!

Very,very excited on this topic...crucial to A.N.Y. serious student/player of the game...

[bluetri]

EXCELLENT!! Loving the posts so far! And Kachatz1 has the idea that I was shooting for, squeezing every unit out of a shoe that we can! Here is an example of just one of those situations (one that I personally like).

Here is the scenario. I am into a strong side shoe (P3121413...) and I notice that the Bank NEVER converts to a 2 iar. So when the next bank comes up (and I lose the first bet of my prog) I deceide to play a little PROG within a PROG. I make the 2 bet (lets say we are using 123) and I play an addtional unit on the same player bet. I keep track of this second prog separately. If it loses then the next time it occurs I follow my secondary prog and the original prog as well. Each time the 2 iar doesn't convert, I make an additional unit...and I could up this prog also.

I know this is delving into events counting, but NOR IS all about letting the shoe tell us what to do. And the shoe is telling me the shoe doesnt like the 2 iar on the weak side.

The best part of this, for me, is that since the shoe has established itself, I am playing the extra bets with the chips the Casino has already provided me. And I LOVE beating them with THEIR chips!! So, what if I lose...nothing ventured, nothing gained. ( Pulling a Harvey). And I may just make a memory! But, I will settle for a few extra units, always a winning proposition.

Anybody else wanna chime in on this type experience, or others that we can discuss?

[stevep]

I have tried this many years ago. Taking a deck out of a box then spliting it exactly in half and then doing a perfect suffle. Since I can't do a perfect suffle I took one card from the bottom of the right stack then one card from the bottom of the left stack and so on until I finished this shuffle. I did it either 7 or 8 times I don't remember which one but when I finished with these shuffles the cards were back in new box cards order. Again I don't remember it all it may have been one card from the left first instead of from the right.

[kachatz1]

EXCELLENT!! Loving the posts so far! And Kachatz1 has the idea that I was shooting for, squeezing every unit out of a shoe that we can! Here is an example of just one of those situations (one that I personally like).

Here is the scenario. I am into a strong side shoe (P3121413...) and I notice that the Bank NEVER converts to a 2 iar. So when the next bank comes up (and I lose the first bet of my prog) I deceide to play a little PROG within a PROG. I make the 2 bet (lets say we are using 123) and I play an addtional unit on the same player bet. I keep track of this second prog separately. If it loses then the next time it occurs I follow my secondary prog and the original prog as well. Each time the 2 iar doesn't convert, I make an additional unit...and I could up this prog also.

I know this is delving into events counting, but NOR IS all about letting the shoe tell us what to do. And the shoe is telling me the shoe doesnt like the 2 iar on the weak side.

The best part of this, for me, is that since the shoe has established itself, I am playing the extra bets with the chips the Casino has already provided me. And I LOVE beating them with THEIR chips!! So, what if I lose...nothing ventured, nothing gained. ( Pulling a Harvey). And I may just make a memory! But, I will settle for a few extra units, always a winning proposition.

Anybody else wanna chime in on this type experience, or others that we can discuss?

I am personally in favor that keeping a lookout for these ShoeWithinAShoe opportunities is a way to squeeze out a few extra units from a shoe...and this is exactly as I play. Whenever the moment presents itself.....

Naturally, nothing is perfect and my experience is that I have to be careful NOT to confuse / get caught up in playing the The BIG PICTURE ( the overall shoe trend) with the LITTLE PICTURE ( playing the two sides of the shoe ...like PvB ) differently

When I have shown others how I keep track of this, likely it is a bit overwhelming to someone not having played BAC for many years..even though for me I find it very easy to keep track of this extra SAP disparity by side (PvB)...it will stand-out/stare-you-in-the-face when it surfaces./ warrants exploitation..

AND I THINK THIS IS EVEN DEEPER THAN / MORE COMPLICATED than this thread has to be ( but I would be happy to explore it separately!) Reading back over many posts re: SAP, I like where your post is going, just not sure how we put it in easy-to-adopt scripture for NOR? I know Ellis decided not to include in standard NOR...

As they say in our Western-genre movies: " Meanwhile, back at the ranch.."

I am thinking that The Good Doctor will come up with a SimpleWay to evaluate/match MM progressions ( UP + DOWN) with the 3 overall shoe types espoused by NOR, and this will be great ammo to add to our arsenal of casino weapons! And I am optimistic his approach(s) can be boiled down and placed right within the NOR manual for all to see/ understand...

Blurtri, if ever I get the chance I would like to meet you in person and play together! I am 100% certain I have FORGOTTEN as much or more about playing disciplined BAC as I currently deploy in a shoe, and you are touching on some great advanced concepts to squeeze-out a few extra units in a shoe....problem always seems to arise that we begin to cross over the line now famously termed "TOO MUCH INFORMATION"

HA!

[Keith Smith]

Team

Just an update they are going to fix Ellis's Carotid artery tomorrow morning.

Keith

[Guest CarlosM]

I will keep Ellis in my prayers. We will always still need you!!!

[johnnycs1]

Speedy Recovery Ellis !

Hope you bounce back feeling........... GREAT !!!

johnny/albuquerque !!

[kachatz1]

This is an excellent idea Chris because it gets right to the root of how we play both Bac and BJ. (NOR and NBJ)

I will have more to say about this after I get back from the hospital hopefully in about a week. But I have a few minutes right now.

There are 3 major basic ways of betting, Flat Betting, Advantage Betting and Progressive Betting.

Flat betting: We all know what this is - always betting the same amount. Mathematicians tend to land on this style of betting because they assume everything is random. And for them, it is. Most have not studied the intricacies of gambling and have no experience in shuffle technology. Casinos DO BTW. And so do I.

It would be good if we could get Dave, Virtuoid at ImSpirit, to take up for the Mathematicians point of view. Dave is an excellent Mathematician whom I highly respect and would do justice for that point of view. In fact, I'll ask him to do so.

But suffice it to say for now: they are RIGHT. If all bets carry the same odds of winning, 50/50, then flat betting would be the way to go. In fact the same view point would also conclude: Don't gamble in the first place. I would never argue against that point of view.

I do not teach people to gamble. I teach people who are going to gamble anyway, how to gamble better.

But let me say for the record here: I have never known of, or even heard of, a flat bettor who is a bottom line, year end winner.

Advantage Betting: You have a low bet and a high bet. You bet the low bet when you have no advantage and the high bet when you do. We do not use this in Bac because no play has more advantage than any other play. But we do use Advantage Betting in NBJ for the NBJ First Base system only. We bet our high bet when the last round ended high because the first base player gets the next card out of the shoe. If his first card is a ten value card or an Ace, his chance of winning the hand go from 43% (random odds) to about 74% - a huge advantage.

BJ card counting uses Advantage Betting and their gurus argue vehemently against Progressive Betting pretty much saying it is suicidal. I could write a book about this argument, and actually have, But I'll side step the argument for our purposes here and simply say they are RIGHT! The way THEY play BJ, Progressive Betting IS suicidal!

Progressive Betting: First we can eliminate up as you win progressions because I don't use them except in very rare circumstances and I don't teach them.

So we are talking about up as you lose progressions, the very same progressions that both Mathematicians and Card Counting gurus argue AGAINST. And they would be RIGHT if everything was random.

So the real question is: Is everything random?

Let's take BJ first because it is more obvious: Anyone, with a brain, who has played BJ on a crowded Saturday night at any casino KNOWS that the cards are NOT random. Highs follow highs and lows follow lows FAR more than they randomly should. It is totally obvious. There are sound and simple reasons why this is so which I won't go into here. Suffice it to say for our purposes here that the cards are "clumped".

What do card counters think they are counting for crying out loud??? They are counting the degree of clumping. They just don't realize it.

LOOK, I can count cards too - faster and better than most. I can count down a deck of cards in 13 seconds and tell you whether the card you removed was high, low, or neutral. I challenge any card counting guru to do that.

But unlike them, I gave card counting a very thorough trial IN THE CASINOS. I can tell you, first hand, that card counting does not work. But it is good for ONE thing. Card counting PROVES, beyond all doubt, that the cards are NOT random. Many times I got to a count in the 30's in 6 deck BJ in the casino. Random cards CANNOT get to counts in the 30's. You can prove this to yourself at home. Shuffle 6 decks of cards to a random condition. This will take a while - arguably about 1000 shuffles. Then do a BJ card count. You won't get anywhere near a +30 count. You'll be lucky to even get to +15.

In a casino, cards are not random in a mature BJ game. If they were, Basic Strategy alone would beat BJ. But it doesn't, does it? Also the dealer would break 28% of the time. But she doesn't, does she.

Baccarat uses the same shuffles and the same shuffle machines that BJ uses.

Here are a couple of other facts if you are not already convinced,

Back in the late '80s and early '90s all casinos used the same Baccarat shuffle. It required the fanning of the undealt cards through the rest of the shoe and then a double BJ type shuffle. If you watched this shuffle, as I did hundreds of times, you would swear those cards had to be random. But they weren't. We saw 20 - 26 in a rows on virtually a daily basis, sometimes two in the same shoe. Look, the odds of an 8 in a row are one in 8 shoes. Sure, 20 - 26 in a rows are possible when measured against infinity but not on a daily basis. You never saw one in your life, did you. Why? Because the casinos lost their shirt on them so they got rid of them through the same shuffle technology they learned in BJ.

But the opposite has also occurred. The first casino I know of to go to preshuffled cards was in Australia. I was sent many cards from this casino. Every card was ridiculously choppy. Twice as many one and two in a rows as is normal in random cards. No 4 or mores at all. Card after card.

What does this all mean? That casinos know how to produce streak and they know how to produce chop.

What else do they know???

OK, that is all I have time for, for now. I'll try to get back to this in about a week.

Meanwhile you guys might comment on what strange things you have seen in casinos.

Also meanwhile you might try this experiment. Most say it takes 7 shuffles to make a single deck of cards random. Others say 25. Take a new deck of cards in boxed card order. Shuffle 7 times the best you can. I'll guarantee you, you'll still see remnants of the boxed card order when you spread these "shuffled" cards out. Try it. What are the rules for casino shuffles? TWICE.

Ellis-

Thanks for your comments today about U1D1 vs. U1D2 as pertains to NOR+ , and the way it adds a "twist" to straight OTBL to handle the occasional long streak...

The above was from a thread started in January, and as we delved into it a bit, it appeared that there was a lot of interest in a " refresher course" on the various progressions which might be deployed, whether conservatively or aggressively , whether positive or negative progressions...

Could be useful as additional info for NOR /NOR + approaches to a shoe and then be incorporated into the manual for all NOR baccarat players consideration...

Is this something could actually be related to the type of shoe? Or using suggested trigger/capture points ( like +5, +10, units, etc) to move into a more aggressive progression/ more conservative progression.

Seems there is a lot of discussion on progressions throughout the threads, but perhaps these various progressions pros/cons could be " encapsulated" in a single thread so that we can all better integrate into NOR play?

Thoughts?