random Hard to believe these shoes could possibly be "Random" ECD Group February 19, 2013

[ECD]

Further on the "frequency of events" in Baccarat ...5 Shoes that I was playing (not real money) online...

First shoe had a run of 13 P

Second shoe had a run of 10 B

I had to go to work so I logged off and logged back on at pretty much the same time the next day..

First shoe had a run of 10 P

Second shoe had a run of 6 B followed by a run of 8 B

Third shoe had a run of 9 B

Not sure how to calculate the odds ...Would someone calculate the odds please

Having regard to Ellis's "Frequency of events"...I find it unlikely...almost impossible that these shoes could be random...except that the cards were hand shuffled. How does this happen?

[Guest]

Further on the "frequency of events" in Baccarat ...5 Shoes that I was playing (not real money) online...

First shoe had a run of 13 P

Second shoe had a run of 10 B

I had to go to work so I logged off and logged back on at pretty much the same time the next day..

First shoe had a run of 10 P

Second shoe had a run of 6 B followed by a run of 8 B

Third shoe had a run of 9 B

Not sure how to calculate the odds ...Would someone calculate the odds please

Having regard to Ellis's "Frequency of events"...I find it unlikely...almost impossible that these shoes could be random...except that the cards were hand shuffled. How does this happen?

No Oz, et al, it is not randomly possible:

The odds of a 9 are 1 in 16 shoes

The odds of a 10 are 1 in 32 shoes

The odds of a 13 are 1 in 252 shoes

Yes, each are mathematically possible but to see this every time you turn your computer on simply can't be. It stretches random odds way to far.

So OK, you watched them shuffle. Back in the late '80s and early '90s, I watched them shuffle too. And those shuffles LOOKED perfectly legit. But we saw runs like this nearly every shoe and more. I played 20 to 26 in a rows on almost a daily basis. Sometimes two in the same shoe. Both straight and ZZ but never TT. Whereas today runs this long are only TT (BB PP BB PP.) Whenever I tell people this, they look askance at me. Who wouldn't. But others who played in those years have confirmed what I saw right here on this forum. I'm not nuts but many who weren't there to see it, think I am.

So why did the 20 iars all of a sudden disappear? Because the players got smart and the casinos started losing money on them. As soon as the casinos started losing money on 20 iars, poof, they disappeared. Such is the casino world!

What you are seeing is shuffle technology in action. - The very essence of the basis of NOR.

Oz, your casual post is a very valuable contribution to this forum. It demonstrates the very foundation of NOR - That casinos can produce whatever shoe type they want. They learned this in BJ, and tripled their BJ profits. So they tried the same technology in Bac and increased their profits 8 fold.

2 years ago we had another poster also from Australia. He was posting shoes right after his casino went to factory preshuffled cards. His shoes were impossibly choppy. 2 and 3 times the normal 1's in every single shoe. By random odds, his shoes were totally impossible. But there they were, shoe after shoe.

The problem is, you have to have been there to see it with your own eyes. You tell a story like this to a Mathematician (actually a Physicist I think) like Dave and he'll think you are nuts, or worse, a scammer. It simply doesn't fit in their neat little mathematical world. The very idea that a casino would cheat, well they think you are nuts - or worse. They deny 26% casino Bac profits even though those are public profit reports. And casinos pay taxes on profits. The last thing a corporation would ever do is inflate their profit numbers. They use every trick imaginable to DEFLATE their profits. I KNOW. I was raised in the corporate world and went from the very bottom all the way up to 30 Rock. I know their methods. I was there.

Now Oz, the Mathematician will explain your shoes away showing you that the odds of each run are entirely possible. Sure they are, INDIVIDUALLY. What they are failing to consider is Frequency of Occurrence. Yes, each of those runs is entirely possible BUT you simply can't get that many in the random envelope. But shuffle technology CAN.

You might be thinking: "Poor Ellis, he'll never be able to prove.....

Bullshit! Anyone who wants to prove it to themselves can easily do it because shuffle technology is still alive and well in BJ. Yep, still today!

As I have said along with many on this forum including Aegis, our in house computer test expert:

Go to any major casino on a Saturday night and watch any 8 deck BJ game that has been in play all day. Count highs following highs vs lows following highs out of the dealer shoe. Random odds says it should be 50/50. Not even close - I guarantee it. Highs will follow highs and lows will follow lows even 75% of the time hand after hand and shoe after shoe. Eventually you'll see 20 tens in a row out of the dealer shoe. Ha, it won't even raise an eyebrow at the table. They have no idea that they have no chance in that game whatsoever.

Now if you carry forward my above odds of runs of certain lengths you will arrive at the odds of a 20 in a row in Bac are 1 in 32,000 shoes. And that doesn't even count the fact that you can't have a 20 iar that starts in the last 19 hands of a shoe. That fact greatly increases the odds against a 20iar. I didn't include that fact in my calculations.

Now the Mathematicians will argue that Bank has a better chance of..... Fiddlesticks! I saw just as many Player 20s as Banks - and I'm talking hundreds of them. See, it isn't about Math. It is about shuffle technology.

So OK, you agree that the odds against 20 Banks are virtually impossible, whatever they are - agreed?

So what are the odds of 20 tens iar in BJ? You don't have to be a Mathematician.

The odds of each Bank were about 51%.

The odds of each ten are 4/13ths or 30.8%.

In other words, 20 tens is totally impossible in one lifetime, right? agreed?

Yet go to any casino on a Friday or Saturday night and count tens following tens in an 8 deck BJ game no matter how the cards were shuffled. You will quickly see that it is just a question of time before.....

I play BJ. 8 deck is my favorite game. But I don't play it on Friday or Saturday night. I KNOW BETTER!

Why Friday and Sat nights?

Simple, the longer the cards are played and the more players in the game, the more the cards clump, the more highs follow highs. And the more highs follow highs, the more lows follow lows. That is why you see so many dealer 7 card hands on Fri and Sat nights. And the more clumped the cards get the less Basic Strategy works. You'll quickly see that shuffles don't mean anything, whether by hand or by machine. It all greatly favors the casino. It always does and always did. It is right there under your nose for anyone to see. Anyone who wants to, that is.

I rest my case!

Look, watch my lips: You can't solve Gambling by Math. The two don't match. The only way to solve gambling is astute observation.

To gamble successfully you can't live in a perfect, make believe, lets pretend Mathematical world where nobody cheats.

You must live in the real world where whenever there is money on the table, somebody is going to cheat -. And then know how to use their own cheating against them. In 30 years, I've caught casinos cheating red handed hundreds of times. I'm not talking shuffle technology here. I'm talking outright cheating. Anyone naive enough to think they don't should never step foot in a casino. They have hundreds of ways down pat. Casinos live in their own world that they created. I live in their world too and have for more than 30 years. To learn how to beat casinos, you need to be taught by somebody who lives in the real world. That is where the money is.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Guest

[Guest]

The smartest of you will recognize that was the most important post ever posted on this forum!

[ECD]

No Oz, et al, it is not randomly possible:

The odds of a 9 are 1 in 16 shoes

The odds of a 10 are 1 in 32 shoes

The odds of a 13 are 1 in 252 shoes

Yes, each are mathematically possible but to see this every time you turn your computer on simply can't be. It stretches random odds way to far.

So OK, you watched them shuffle. Back in the late '80s and early '90s, I watched them shuffle too. And those shuffles LOOKED perfectly legit. But we saw runs like this nearly every shoe and more. I played 20 to 26 in a rows on almost a daily basis. Sometimes two in the same shoe. Both straight and ZZ but never TT. Whereas today runs this long are only TT (BB PP BB PP.) Whenever I tell people this, they look askance at me. Who wouldn't. But others who played in those years have confirmed what I saw right here on this forum. I'm not nuts but many who weren't there to see it, think I am.

So why did the 20 iars all of a sudden disappear? Because the players got smart and the casinos started losing money on them. As soon as the casinos started losing money on 20 iars, poof, they disappeared. Such is the casino world!

What you are seeing is shuffle technology in action. - The very essence of the basis of NOR.

Oz, your casual post is a very valuable contribution to this forum. It demonstrates the very foundation of NOR - That casinos can produce whatever shoe type they want. They learned this in BJ, and tripled their BJ profits. So they tried the same technology in Bac and increased their profits 8 fold.

2 years ago we had another poster also from Australia. He was posting shoes right after his casino went to factory preshuffled cards. His shoes were impossibly choppy. 2 and 3 times the normal 1's in every single shoe. By random odds, his shoes were totally impossible. But there they were, shoe after shoe.

The problem is, you have to have been there to see it with your own eyes. You tell a story like this to a Mathematician (actually a Physicist I think) like Dave and he'll think you are nuts, or worse, a scammer. It simply doesn't fit in their neat little mathematical world. The very idea that a casino would cheat, well they think you are nuts - or worse. They deny 26% casino Bac profits even though those are public profit reports. And casinos pay taxes on profits. The last thing a corporation would ever do is inflate their profit numbers. They use every trick imaginable to DEFLATE their profits. I KNOW. I was raised in the corporate world and went from the very bottom all the way up to 30 Rock. I know their methods. I was there.

Now Oz, the Mathematician will explain your shoes away showing you that the odds of each run are entirely possible. Sure they are, INDIVIDUALLY. What they are failing to consider is Frequency of Occurrence. Yes, each of those runs is entirely possible BUT you simply can't get that many in the random envelope. But shuffle technology CAN.

You might be thinking: "Poor Ellis, he'll never be able to prove.....

Bullshit! Anyone who wants to prove it to themselves can easily do it because shuffle technology is still alive and well in BJ. Yep, still today!

As I have said along with many on this forum including Aegis, our in house computer test expert:

Go to any major casino on a Saturday night and watch any 8 deck BJ game that has been in play all day. Count highs following highs vs lows following highs out of the dealer shoe. Random odds says it should be 50/50. Not even close - I guarantee it. Highs will follow highs and lows will follow lows even 75% of the time hand after hand and shoe after shoe. Eventually you'll see 20 tens in a row out of the dealer shoe. Ha, it won't even raise an eyebrow at the table. They have no idea that they have no chance in that game whatsoever.

Now if you carry forward my above odds of runs of certain lengths you will arrive at the odds of a 20 in a row in Bac are 1 in 32,000 shoes. And that doesn't even count the fact that you can't have a 20 iar that starts in the last 19 hands of a shoe. That fact greatly increases the odds against a 20iar. I didn't include that fact in my calculations.

Now the Mathematicians will argue that Bank has a better chance of..... Fiddlesticks! I saw just as many Player 20s as Banks - and I'm talking hundreds of them. See, it isn't about Math. It is about shuffle technology.

So OK, you agree that the odds against 20 Banks are virtually impossible, whatever they are - agreed?

So what are the odds of 20 tens iar in BJ? You don't have to be a Mathematician.

The odds of each Bank were about 51%.

The odds of each ten are 4/13ths or 30.8%.

In other words, 20 tens is totally impossible in one lifetime, right? agreed?

Yet go to any casino on a Friday or Saturday night and count tens following tens in an 8 deck BJ game no matter how the cards were shuffled. You will quickly see that it is just a question of time before.....

I play BJ. 8 deck is my favorite game. But I don't play it on Friday or Saturday night. I KNOW BETTER!

Why Friday and Sat nights?

Simple, the longer the cards are played and the more players in the game, the more the cards clump, the more highs follow highs. And the more highs follow highs, the more lows follow lows. That is why you see so many dealer 7 card hands on Fri and Sat nights. And the more clumped the cards get the less Basic Strategy works. You'll quickly see that shuffles don't mean anything, whether by hand or by machine. It all greatly favors the casino. It always does and always did. It is right there under your nose for anyone to see. Anyone who wants to, that is.

I rest my case!

Look, watch my lips: You can't solve Gambling by Math. The two don't match. The only way to solve gambling is astute observation.

To gamble successfully you can't live in a perfect, make believe, lets pretend Mathematical world where nobody cheats.

You must live in the real world where whenever there is money on the table, somebody is going to cheat -. And then know how to use their own cheating against them. In 30 years, I've caught casinos cheating red handed hundreds of times. I'm not talking shuffle technology here. I'm talking outright cheating. Anyone naive enough to think they don't should never step foot in a casino. They have hundreds of ways down pat. Casinos live in their own world that they created. I live in their world too and have for more than 30 years. To learn how to beat casinos, you need to be taught by somebody who lives in the real world. That is where the money is.

Memo to self: Never...ever ask Ellis a question that requires more than a one word answer...Only kidding.

Ellis...you keep forgetting that I'm old and have a short attention span (it took me 3 separate sitting to read your reply...lol

Nah...seriously Ellis...many thanks for your detailed analysis...you sure got me thinking...so much information...I have read your post and reread it several times and I'm convinced.

There is so much useful information posted by yourself and your proteges on the "Members Only" Forum that sometimes I feel my head is going to burst.

Bloody hell...I thought Baccarat was the simplest game in the casino...I couldn't have been more wrong.

Yeah...With your help I'm gonna beat this game...I just may take a little longer than some...lol

Again...Thanks for your patience

Oz

BTW: Interesting to note that on the same Live Casino site...my first shoe this morning was all 1's...2's and 3's with 1 single run of 4...I guess they changed the shuffle to compensate for people betting OTR...See what you've done Ellis...You've turned me into a suspicious old bastard

I should post the shoe...I figure if you'd played it for real...you would have walked away owning the Casino...lol

[Guest]

Memo to self: Never...ever ask Ellis a question that requires more than a one word answer...Only kidding.

Ellis...you keep forgetting that I'm old and have a short attention span (it took me 3 separate sitting to read your reply...lol

Nah...seriously Ellis...many thanks for your detailed analysis...you sure got me thinking...so much information...I have read your post and reread it several times and I'm convinced.

There is so much useful information posted by yourself and your proteges on the "Members Only" Forum that sometimes I feel my head is going to burst.

Bloody hell...I thought Baccarat was the simplest game in the casino...I couldn't have been more wrong.

Yeah...With your help I'm gonna beat this game...I just may take a little longer than some...lol

Again...Thanks for your patience

Oz

BTW: Interesting to note that on the same Live Casino site...my first shoe this morning was all 1's...2's and 3's with 1 single run of 4...I guess they changed the shuffle to compensate for people betting OTR...See what you've done Ellis...You've turned me into a suspicious old bastard

I should post the shoe...I figure if you'd played it for real...you would have walked away owning the Casino...lol

That is what casinos do OZ! They like to present a moving target. They lull you into playing one way then bang - the switcheroo! That is how they make so much money in a 50/50 game. They like to catch you with your pants down, That is why NOR must have 3 basic systems of play.

Oz? Oz! Bloody Hell! The wizard sleeps!