UNLV Center For Gaming Research

[jmz91]

Hi Gang,

Just found this article, UNLV study says revenue from Bac are 43.88%!! WOW

Here's the link to the article:

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2013/mar/20/gaming-numbers-popularity-casino-table-games/

[Guest]

Hi Gang,

Just found this article, UNLV study says revenue from Bac are 43.88%!! WOW

Here's the link to the article:

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2013/mar/20/gaming-numbers-popularity-casino-table-games/

Yep, that is what I've been trying to tell you. Now I ask you: How does THAT happen in a suppodedly 50/50 game + 1.25% commission??? Use your head!

To beat this game you need to first know exactly what you are actually up against. You must know how to use their own orchestration against them. You must know NOR. ALL else has already failed. We have the only winning players that exist.

[gman72]

Hi Gang,

Just found this article, UNLV study says revenue from Bac are 43.88%!! WOW

Here's the link to the article:

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2013/mar/20/gaming-numbers-popularity-casino-table-games/

That was interesting, but the 43.88% was the percentage of total table game profit from baccarat.

Check out this article/pdf: http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_table_hold.pdf

Just ran across this, a March 2013 report is showing that the 20 year historical average (1992-2012) for the baccarat hold in Nevada casinos is 14.68%.

Interesting, not as high as some reporting I've seen on here, but obviously higher than the 1.25% commission.

[Guest]

That was interesting, but the 43.88% was the percentage of total table game profit from baccarat.

Check out this article/pdf: http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_table_hold.pdf

Just ran across this, a March 2013 report is showing that the 20 year historical average (1992-2012) for the baccarat hold in Nevada casinos is 14.68%.

Interesting, not as high as some reporting I've seen on here, but obviously higher than the 1.25% commission.

I would greatly appreciate it Gman if you would go over to ImSpirit, find the appropriate thread, post the 43% and post the above link. Say whatever you want but include the following comment in your own words.

"Maybe Ellis's report of an avg 26% casino Bac drop a year ago, which included Atlantic City, was not inflated afterall. In fact, it sounds about dead on. Virtuoid, Perhaps you can explain mathematically how casinos retain 43% of the drop with only 1.25% commission in an otherwise 50/50 game W/O the casino orchestration which Ellis says is the basis of NOR. And perhaps you can explain how NOR players are reporting 4 year profits in a game you claim is random. Ellis says that if the avg. player finds a way to lose far more than the game odds dictate, then there is obviously a way to win far more than the game odds dictate. One way is to bet dead against the table but Ellis says NOR is a better way. One player's 60 shoe L.V. profit report of 6 units per shoe avg. W/O ever betting more than 3 units would seem to strongly support Ellis's statements. Or maybe he too was just lucky as you said of Ellis's 26% P.A. in the 6 shoes you watched him play in A.C. BTW, no one else has ever reported a 26% P.A. for even 2 shoes in a row, let alone 6. That's an awful lot of luck! Ellis says there is no such magic thing as luck, just statistical aberation which there is a limit to. Just as, he says, there are no leprechauns and Elvis is dead. BTW, a bunch of us watched him win $3000 in a half hour recently in a 2 deck BJ game W/O ever betting more than $300. It didn't seem like luck at the time! The Mkt Mgr at the same Vegas casino, Flamingo, reported their computer records show that Ellis, while a very frequent player, has not had a single losing day in any of their 40 casinos in the last 20 years. Is that luck too? Or is it just as Ellis says - The game CAN be beat."

Thanks Gman! This will probably start a war! Been there, done that!

[Guest]

BTW, the 14.68% avg for '92 - 2012 sounds right to me. Just remember that is a 20 year avg. But, the casinos were reporting 3% in the early '90s and 26% a couple years ago. Average those two together and what do you get? Pretty freaking close to 14.68%.

Yet Virtuoid (Dave) severely chastized me for reporting 26% a year ago. He said I was looking at one month at one casino. But I wasn't. I was looking at the overall Vegas - Atlantic City average and he knew that perfectly well. He is out to prove that casinos don't cheat and therefore can't be beat. It will be interesting to see how he handles 43%. He'll probably come up with some sort of mathematical gobbledegook. He's good at that. Ha, "casinos don't cheat" - That'll be the day!

If you want to beat casinos, the FIRST thing you've got to conquer is: YOU CAN'T BE NAIVE.

[gman72]

BTW, the 14.68% avg for '92 - 2012 sounds right to me. Just remember that is a 20 year avg. But, the casinos were reporting 3% in the early '90s and 26% a couple years ago. Average those two together and what do you get? Pretty freaking close to 14.68%.

Yet Virtuoid (Dave) severely chastized me for reporting 26% a year ago. He said I was looking at one month at one casino. But I wasn't. I was looking at the overall Vegas - Atlantic City average and he knew that perfectly well. He is out to prove that casinos don't cheat and therefore can't be beat. It will be interesting to see how he handles 43%. He'll probably come up with some sort of mathematical gobbledegook. He's good at that. Ha, "casinos don't cheat" - That'll be the day!

If you want to beat casinos, the FIRST thing you've got to conquer is: YOU CAN'T BE NAIVE.

It is amazing that with a mathematical expectation of a 1.25 hold that the casinos in Nevada can average over 14% in a twenty year period. I wouldn't be surprised, if you added in AC and other casino areas, that the average hold percentage would be higher.

I do want to point out though, that in the first article linked by jmz91, that the 43.88% figure was not a hold percentage from baccarat. It was the percentage of the casino's total profit from all table games attributed to baccarat. My understanding of this would mean that for every $100 in total table game profit, $43.88 was attributed to baccarat. I would think you could infer from that data that the hold percentages from the baccarat tables must be good if they account for nearly half of all the casino's table game profits.

[Guest]

It is amazing that with a mathematical expectation of a 1.25 hold that the casinos in Nevada can average over 14% in a twenty year period. I wouldn't be surprised, if you added in AC and other casino areas, that the average hold percentage would be higher.

I do want to point out though, that in the first article linked by jmz91, that the 43.88% figure was not a hold percentage from baccarat. It was the percentage of the casino's total profit from all table games attributed to baccarat. My understanding of this would mean that for every $100 in total table game profit, $43.88 was attributed to baccarat. I would think you could infer from that data that the hold percentages from the baccarat tables must be good if they account for nearly half of all the casino's table game profits.

Oh, OK, I'm glad you pointed that out. Don't bother posting at ImSpirit then. I still stand by my hold % of 26% from a couple of years ago and that does jive with the 20 year average. We need to get new hold % numbers for the last two years.

[gman72]

I haven't found the hold % for the most recent year, but below is the place where I think that information will eventually be found. It has a lot of interesting data.

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports.html

Check out this report, it is a current mid-year 2013 report on gaming, and it has an interesting little section about the importance of high-roller baccarat to the big Vegas casinos.

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/UNLVColliers%20MidYear2013.pdf

[gman72]

I haven't found the hold % for the most recent year, but below is the place where I think that information will eventually be found. It has a lot of interesting data.

I take that back, I did find this:

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/NV_june.pdf

It shows the month of June 2013 baccarat hold was down to 7.44% statewide in Nevada. This is just one month though. Couldn't find current AC data.

[gman72]

Read the Executive Summary of that last report I just posted. It's an interesting trend I'm reading in all these reports, and that is that apparently baccarat, especially high-roller play, has a significant impact on casino revenue.

Didn't I just read a trip report from the last Vegas seminar where one of the members hit the MGM high limit room for a good haul. LOL!

[Guest]

Read the Executive Summary of that last report I just posted. It's an interesting trend I'm reading in all these reports, and that is that apparently baccarat, especially high-roller play, has a significant impact on casino revenue.

Didn't I just read a trip report from the last Vegas seminar where one of the members hit the MGM high limit room for a good haul. LOL!

Exactly! One Thousand dollar player can sway the results of 100 floor players. Our highest roller in question happens to be one of our top players, if not THE top. We have some others not nearly as good.

Putting our own players aside for a moment, I've played with high rollers and even whales before many times. They pretty much all had one thing in common - they couldn't play for shit. They bet AGAINST the trend. That is what makes them casino favorites. But our high roller in question? I guarantee you - He is no casino favorite.

I used to frequently play the secret upstairs high stakes room at Ceasars. I always won! But that is why they barred me from that room. Downstairs on the open floor I caught a whole BJ pit redhanded using the Bahama hole card trick. They had to give back the money to our whole table. So I wasn't popular there either. Then at Caesars AC, I won the argument by appealing to Casino control who made them pay me off a $7000 tie bet I made in a Bac tournament. They threw our clothes and belongings out in the hall and our keys no longer worked. But, they paid off my bet! Hmmm, I just keep doing the wrong thing at Caesars!

[Guest]

I take that back, I did find this:

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/NV_june.pdf

It shows the month of June 2013 baccarat hold was down to 7.44% statewide in Nevada. This is just one month though. Couldn't find current AC data.

You know Gman, when I first saw this I attributed it to Vegas going to 100 % preshuffled cards and thereby losing the Asian players.

But I'm not so sure. The floor players at the many tables I played were the worst I ever saw. I no longer trust their monthly numbers.

Their numbers showed a steady gradual climb from 3% to 26% over 20 years. Then they go to preshuffled cards that nobody could beat and they are showing 7.4%! Sorry, I'm not buying it.

You know what I think? I think they suddenly realized that publishing real numbers proves they must be cheating. Solution? Publish bogus numbers. Their claims simply do not add up to what I saw with my own eyes.

[gman72]

I no longer trust their monthly numbers.

You know what I think? I think they suddenly realized that publishing real numbers proves they must be cheating. Solution? Publish bogus numbers. Their claims simply do not add up to what I saw with my own eyes.

You may be on to something. Here's a quote from an article I just read about baccarat play in Macau. It's not Vegas or AC, but the article was talking about Wynn's place there, so I'm sure it translates here as well.

"Yet another explanation could lie in accounting practices. In spite of the game's simplicity, producing figures that track the action on baccarat tables can vex even the most seasoned casino executive."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wynns-abnormal-lucky-streak-baffles-analysts

[Natural_9]

That was interesting, but the 43.88% was the percentage of total table game profit from baccarat.

Check out this article/pdf: http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_table_hold.pdf

Just ran across this, a March 2013 report is showing that the 20 year historical average (1992-2012) for the baccarat hold in Nevada casinos is 14.68%.

Interesting, not as high as some reporting I've seen on here, but obviously higher than the 1.25% commission.

More interesting than that is that there is an obvious trend of the hold declining from Roulette. Are people learning to win roulette? Or is the variance all within the expected sample. I'd like to see historical win records from Roulette.