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OTB4L or S40? | ECD GROUP | July 21, 2013


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Question Ellis

Quite often we see a shoe that will work well with both OTB4L and S40... Let's just say for example by play 8..If we are talking equal success rate for both systems... then I assume that we should always go with OTB4L because it covers more possibilities better than S40...but the question arises if the events show that S40 is 1 or 2 bets ahead of OTB4L ...do you still go with OTB4L for the same reason...or do you go with S40?

I just played a shoe online where it started a bit iffy as to whether it was an OTB4L shoe or S40... it was favouring S40 early on...but I chose to go with OTB4L anyway and the shoe went fairly well for me. S40 would have also been a success...but playing U1D1M2...there was a disparity in favour of OTB4L of 9 units .

The funny thing is that both systems if played by flat betting would have won 13 units

The shoe had a mid shoe 5iar in which I lost my fourth bet and was sorely tempted to switch to S40 due to prior events...but I was well ahead and decided to stick with the tried and true and it came good

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Question Ellis

Quite often we see a shoe that will work well with both OTB4L and S40... Let's just say for example by play 8..If we are talking equal success rate for both systems... then I assume that we should always go with OTB4L because it covers more possibilities better than S40...but the question arises if the events show that S40 is 1 or 2 bets ahead of OTB4L ...do you still go with OTB4L for the same reason...or do you go with S40?

1's decide that issue: Usually OTB4L but OTB4L sacrifices 1's performance. Therefore, are 1's high? Am I getting double 1's? If so 1's rule and I go with S40 which thrives on 1's. If not, I go with OTB4L which covers everything else better except 1's.

I just played a shoe online where it started a bit iffy as to whether it was an OTB4L shoe or S40... it was favouring S40 early on...but I chose to go with OTB4L anyway and the shoe went fairly well for me. S40 would have also been a success...but playing U1D1M2...there was a disparity in favour of OTB4L of 9 units .

? Both played U1D1M2? If so that is a very high disparity. 1's must have been low. But add a few 1's and it could have gone the other way just as easy.

The funny thing is that both systems if played by flat betting would have won 13 units

Shows you the value of progressions - No matter what mathematicians say. I won at BJ every day for 3 years largely due to 3 bet progressions. Then I read where ALL BJ instructors say NEVER bet progressions! They are right for THEIR play. Their play is far to weak to support progressions. Mine isn't! They still say that today even after watching me kill tables with 2 and 3 bet progressions. That is why they will NEVER have a winning year - let alone win every day.

For instance: Suppose you are playing OTB4L M3 and you correctly hit the 6th circle of a run. I say now make 2 progressive bets against the run. Why? Because the odds of the run staying at 6 or 7 are far better than the odds of it going to 8. They say the odds are the same. They are only looking at surface math. (every play is 50/50) If they checked a little further they'd see that the real math odds favor me 4 to 1. - Just as they did in BJ. They get theirselves entrapped by their own rules. And they lose by sticking to their rules no matter what. Then they apply the same failed rules to Bac.

The shoe had a mid shoe 5iar in which I lost my fourth bet and was sorely tempted to switch to S40 due to prior events...but I was well ahead and decided to stick with the tried and true and it came good

And that shows you the power of U1D1! With a 123 4 you would have been dead meat losing 4iar. BUT with U1D1 it is just a minor inconvenience and the higher your progs go the more you win - the exact opposite of 123 4. Flat betting, as they recommend, you would have been limited to 13 units. Sure, sometimes we get a run-a-way prog - but that is what our stop loss is for. Meanwhile they could lose the farm because they say that stop losses don't work. Ha!

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  • Keith Smith changed the title to OTB4L or S40? | ECD GROUP | July 21, 2013

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