A winning shoe - but had questions on how to get away with middle section

[bac-cracker]

B11232321113

P22123212 1112

B141161

Ok, This one was pretty straight forward, you could play either s40m3 or otbm3 and win.

Depending on when I saw the shoe, would determine how I bet. I think I even switched, I started with s40 and at hand 8-9 I went to otb.

1. OTB - Hand 16-21 it gets all weird and I would have had to do a 6 bet and this happens to me a lot (although I don't), but if this didn't happen, I would be able to go smoothly and capitalize on the rest of the shoe.

Having that the shoe was going good, I would at least do a 3 bet, then went OTR lost and then another 2 before winning the last... help

2. So would you say you would have stuck to s40 on this? s40 broke but at 44+ hands

[Guest]

B11232321113

P22123212 1112

B141161

Ok, This one was pretty straight forward, you could play either s40m3 or otbm3 and win.

Depending on when I saw the shoe, would determine how I bet. I think I even switched, I started with s40 and at hand 8-9 I went to otb.

1. OTB - Hand 16-21 it gets all weird and I would have had to do a 6 bet and this happens to me a lot (although I don't), but if this didn't happen, I would be able to go smoothly and capitalize on the rest of the shoe.

Having that the shoe was going good, I would at least do a 3 bet, then went OTR lost and then another 2 before winning the last... help

2. So would you say you would have stuck to s40 on this? s40 broke but at 44+ hands

Right, this is a great shoe either way, s40 or OTB4LM2.

In fact so good that I definitely would have gone to U1D1M2 very early on with OTB4LM2.

Starting at play 3 I hit +35 at play 40. If you go passed that the dreaded 4iar brings you back down to +31.

But like I've said: There is a Baccarat god up there that frowns down on players who try to go more than +30. THAT is where I know from experience (bad experience) to QUIT.

The trick here is to KNOW to up your prog to U1D1M2. But you should have figured this out long before you won 10 out of your first 13 bets.

Granted we are only looking to average +5 these days. But that doesn't mean we look a gift horse in the mouth!

[bac-cracker]

Hi,

Please let me know how you got away with the 6 bet around hand 16-21, that would get you at -8 and also take us out of a perfect otb shoe. Happens a lot where there is that one spot that screws you up before the shoe turns golden.

Thanks

Right, this is a great shoe either way, s40 or OTB4LM2.

In fact so good that I definitely would have gone to U1D1M2 very early on with OTB4LM2.

Starting at play 3 I hit +35 at play 40. If you go passed that the dreaded 4iar brings you back down to +31.

But like I've said: There is a Baccarat god up there that frowns down on players who try to go more than +30. THAT is where I know from experience (bad experience) to QUIT.

The trick here is to KNOW to up your prog to U1D1M2. But you should have figured this out long before you won 10 out of your first 13 bets.

Granted we are only looking to average +5 these days. But that doesn't mean we look a gift horse in the mouth!

[Guest]

Hi,

Please let me know how you got away with the 6 bet around hand 16-21, that would get you at -8 and also take us out of a perfect otb shoe. Happens a lot where there is that one spot that screws you up before the shoe turns golden.

Thanks

Hmm, kilieu, my highest bet was a single 4 at play 18.

The shoe was:

B11232321113

P221232121112

B141161

Starting at play 3 with OTB4LM2 U1D1M2 my bets were:

P1,B2,P1,P2,B1,B2,B1,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2,P1,P2,B3,B4,B3,P2 =+13

P3,P2,B1,B2,P1,P2,B3,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2,P1,P2,B3,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2 = +35

Don't need the 3rd col. I would have quit at play 33 with +30.

In Mode 2 you go OTR after 2 losing bets for 1 bet. Did you do that?

This one is pretty cut and dry.

[Sarrom]

I know we play modes by OR count, but would you start m2 because of double 1's?

Hmm, kilieu, my highest bet was a single 4 at play 18.

The shoe was:

B11232321113

P221232121112

B141161

Starting at play 3 with OTB4LM2 U1D1M2 my bets were:

P1,B2,P1,P2,B1,B2,B1,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2,P1,P2,B3,B4,B3,P2 =+13

P3,P2,B1,B2,P1,P2,B3,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2,P1,P2,B3,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2 = +35

Don't need the 3rd col. I would have quit at play 33 with +30.

In Mode 2 you go OTR after 2 losing bets for 1 bet. Did you do that?

This one is pretty cut and dry.

[bac-cracker]

Yes, but why would I be in Mode 2. What I would have done was go OTR after the 3rd loss, then lose that and the 5th bet, giving me a 6 bet if I went balls to the wall.

This is very important as there are many things in OTB, that would take me to this position and it happens quite often for me. Of course I know I can go 2Hi, but I just want more insight on what to do when playing NOR+ and lets say the previous shoes are OTB.

Other examples, might be a 5iar SS, into a ZZ when it has been going 4iar for SS... so we are OTBm3.

Hmm, kilieu, my highest bet was a single 4 at play 18.

The shoe was:

B11232321113

P221232121112

B141161

Starting at play 3 with OTB4LM2 U1D1M2 my bets were:

P1,B2,P1,P2,B1,B2,B1,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2,P1,P2,B3,B4,B3,P2 =+13

P3,P2,B1,B2,P1,P2,B3,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2,P1,P2,B3,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2 = +35

Don't need the 3rd col. I would have quit at play 33 with +30.

In Mode 2 you go OTR after 2 losing bets for 1 bet. Did you do that?

This one is pretty cut and dry.

[Guest]

Yes, but why would I be in Mode 2. What I would have done was go OTR after the 3rd loss, then lose that and the 5th bet, giving me a 6 bet if I went balls to the wall.

This is very important as there are many things in OTB, that would take me to this position and it happens quite often for me. Of course I know I can go 2Hi, but I just want more insight on what to do when playing NOR+ and lets say the previous shoes are OTB.

Other examples, might be a 5iar SS, into a ZZ when it has been going 4iar for SS... so we are OTBm3.

OK, good question well put. So you are OK with everything up to play 18, right? Your question is how do we know to go OTR on the ZZ run at play 18.

You must have missed the Webinar where I explained that we are better off to determine Mode by the OR count rather than the 3rd bet rule. You either missed it altogether or it didn't fully take.

Mode 3 is our chop mode (+ OR count) We are trying to outlast ST runs because the + count means they are short

Mode 2 is our streak mode (- or 0 OR count) We want to get on ST runs earlier because the - count means they are plentiful (simple math)

That is for STraight Runs.

But recognize that when playing OTB4L, it is the exact opposite for ZZ runs (again, simple math)

So at play 18 the OR count is +2 so we go OTR Mode 2 (earlier) because ZZ runs are most likely to go longer with a + OR count.

So will you always be right? Of course not. But you will USUALLY be right because you are betting according to the history of the shoe.

Now I call that simple math BUT in fact it did not become obvious to me until about a year ago.

But look at this: Using the 3rd bet rule we have no idea of what mode to play our first run whether STraight or ZZ.

Another huge problem with the 3rd bet rule is in a back and forth shoe we can be wrong every time.

So I consider using the OR count to determine Mode FAR more accurate than the 3rd bet rule. That is why we had the Webinar on it.

And the OR count is of particular help on the first run you come to where the 3rd bet rule left us guessing.

Now the guys who paid for that Webinar to learn exactly what I'm teaching you now have every right to be pissed at me for teaching you this for free. But my job is to get everyone playing as well as the game can be played. At least that's the way I see it. But next time GO to the damn Webinar. That is what they are for.

kilieu, in the same Webinat I also taught S40M1. So you are probably in the dark on that too. But we discussed the fact that you are usually better off in Streaky shoes to play S40M1 rather than F. This is particularly true of streaky shoes that have no strong side.

So in your shoe, I automatically went to mode 2 at play 18 W/O a second thought because using the OR count for Mode selection is the best way to play. Even though That was the First ZZ run. - That is where the OR count method is of particular value.

Do you get it now? Simple math. Think on it for a while.

BTW kilieu, several of the guys that went to that Webinar have posted that the Webinar quickly paid for itself.

What are Webinars for? To cover new stuff we come up with that improves your play but was not covered in the manual.

Using the OR count to determine mode is the biggest improvement to NOR since its inception. Just as your post implies, NOR eventually boils down to being in the right mode at the right time. Now you have a way to be right most of the time. And isn't that exactly what Baccarat boils down to - being right most of the time.

[bac-cracker]

Ellis, I believe I paid for that webinar, I saw some of my charts after that webinar that were +/- 2 and I didn't act because I believe you said on your first bet, it should be +/-3 didn't you? and when its 0, no bet. I didn't see anything about just being + or - as I figure +/-1 would be neutral.

Anyhow, another question, is this only for the first bet? Because the 2nd bet might be different because of the OR count, but then again, it could be a long run after the +3 on your first bet... just wondering.

Makes more sense this way and yes, it won't happen all the time.

OK, good question well put. So you are OK with everything up to play 18, right? Your question is how do we know to go OTR on the ZZ run at play 18.

You must have missed the Webinar where I explained that we are better off to determine Mode by the OR count rather than the 3rd bet rule. You either missed it altogether or it didn't fully take.

Mode 3 is our chop mode (+ OR count) We are trying to outlast ST runs because the + count means they are short

Mode 2 is our streak mode (- or 0 OR count) We want to get on ST runs earlier because the - count means they are plentiful (simple math)

That is for STraight Runs.

But recognize that when playing OTB4L, it is the exact opposite for ZZ runs (again, simple math)

So at play 18 the OR count is +2 so we go OTR Mode 2 (earlier) because ZZ runs are most likely to go longer with a + OR count.

So will you always be right? Of course not. But you will USUALLY be right because you are betting according to the history of the shoe.

Now I call that simple math BUT in fact it did not become obvious to me until about a year ago.

But look at this: Using the 3rd bet rule we have no idea of what mode to play our first run whether STraight or ZZ.

Another huge problem with the 3rd bet rule is in a back and forth shoe we can be wrong every time.

So I consider using the OR count to determine Mode FAR more accurate than the 3rd bet rule. That is why we had the Webinar on it.

And the OR count is of particular help on the first run you come to where the 3rd bet rule left us guessing.

Now the guys who paid for that Webinar to learn exactly what I'm teaching you now have every right to be pissed at me for teaching you this for free. But my job is to get everyone playing as well as the game can be played. At least that's the way I see it. But next time GO to the damn Webinar. That is what they are for.

kilieu, in the same Webinat I also taught S40M1. So you are probably in the dark on that too. But we discussed the fact that you are usually better off in Streaky shoes to play S40M1 rather than F. This is particularly true of streaky shoes that have no strong side.

So in your shoe, I automatically went to mode 2 at play 18 W/O a second thought because using the OR count for Mode selection is the best way to play. Even though That was the First ZZ run. - That is where the OR count method is of particular value.

Do you get it now? Simple math. Think on it for a while.

BTW kilieu, several of the guys that went to that Webinar have posted that the Webinar quickly paid for itself.

What are Webinars for? To cover new stuff we come up with that improves your play but was not covered in the manual.

Using the OR count to determine mode is the biggest improvement to NOR since its inception. Just as your post implies, NOR eventually boils down to being in the right mode at the right time. Now you have a way to be right most of the time. And isn't that exactly what Baccarat boils down to - being right most of the time.

[Guest]

Ellis, I believe I paid for that webinar, I saw some of my charts after that webinar that were +/- 2 and I didn't act because I believe you said on your first bet, it should be +/-3 didn't you? and when its 0, no bet. I didn't see anything about just being + or - as I figure +/-1 would be neutral.

Anyhow, another question, is this only for the first bet? Because the 2nd bet might be different because of the OR count, but then again, it could be a long run after the +3 on your first bet... just wondering.

Makes more sense this way and yes, it won't happen all the time.

I had suspected you were at that Webinar. Maybe I should have spent more time explaining that with OTB4L we use the OR count the opposite way for ZZ runs.

Where to start and what triggers us to start will always be a question. Our first shoe we always start mid shoe so that we have about a half a tote board to go by. That gives us our biggest advantage. We would be smart to start every shoe that way. Some of our best players do exactly that.

Some players start by jumping on a run ST or ZZ. This is not too bright because whether or not a run will continue is always 50/50.

At an S40 table I like to start after a 2iar because the only thing then that can beat my first prog is a 5+. My odds are way better than 50/50.

For the same reason, at an OTB4L table, I like to start after a 3 either ST or ZZ.

But note that I had already determined the table type. That is what table selection is about. We should NEVER be starting a shoe W/O knowing what shoe type it is - which system we are going to play - either from prior shoes or from the tote board of the current shoe.

In your shoe, I was assuming the prior shoes were OTB4L which was very likely the case.

The problem with posting shoes is that we are always taking that shoe out of context. We don't know the table history.

[bac-cracker]

Ellis,

I understand that at +/-3 you would either go SS or ZZ on the 3rd bet, but what if the the OR was +/-1 or (no bet or flat), or +/-2 (flat or 2 bet etc,something smaller than a 3)... of course the option of no bets.

For the shoes I have played, the issue with seeing the "PERFECT" shoe, is I come in thinking this is the perfect shoe and then I lose every bet as it changed on me. You are not too worried about that, or does this happen to you. Sometimes I come in guns blazing with NOR+ and thats it, its frustrating as the first half had I come to the table earlier, I would have killed the shoe. Other times, I know better now, and just flat my first few bets and even half bets and zero bets because its happened too many times that the shoe changed mid shoe.

Any advice on that?

I had suspected you were at that Webinar. Maybe I should have spent more time explaining that with OTB4L we use the OR count the opposite way for ZZ runs.

Where to start and what triggers us to start will always be a question. Our first shoe we always start mid shoe so that we have about a half a tote board to go by. That gives us our biggest advantage. We would be smart to start every shoe that way. Some of our best players do exactly that.

Some players start by jumping on a run ST or ZZ. This is not too bright because whether or not a run will continue is always 50/50.

At an S40 table I like to start after a 2iar because the only thing then that can beat my first prog is a 5+. My odds are way better than 50/50.

For the same reason, at an OTB4L table, I like to start after a 3 either ST or ZZ.

But note that I had already determined the table type. That is what table selection is about. We should NEVER be starting a shoe W/O knowing what shoe type it is - which system we are going to play - either from prior shoes or from the tote board of the current shoe.

In your shoe, I was assuming the prior shoes were OTB4L which was very likely the case.

The problem with posting shoes is that we are always taking that shoe out of context. We don't know the table history.