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My take on "Pre-shuffled" Shoes with statistics (506 shoes) | ECD GROUP | June 27, 2014

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I consider myself a full time Baccarat player nowadays (my sole source of income) and as such I have figures here that may assist(or not) in developing your MDB System

As Ellis is aware...I keep very accurate records (I even colour code with highlighters each different event so that I can see at a glance what is happening and what has already happened to the shoe and it's pretty damn easy to correlate the info...

For what it's worth... all these shoes were at Aussie Casinos and I have no idea if the same applies worldwide...

506 shoes...37,026 hands ...hope this helps

16,676 opposites

8934 solitary opposites

4572 2iar's

2148 3iar's

1648 4iar's (this seems extraordinarily high but the Casino must have their reasons)

86% of shoes had at least 1 5+iar

56% of shoes had more than 1 5+iar

Recogniseable Bias (after 10 hands):

Chop 37%

Neutral 37%

Streak 26%

Bias that continued after 20 hands:

Chop 12%

Neutral 62%

Streak 32%

Only 2% of shoes had a strong bias that continued throughout the shoe

These figures might be a little skewed as some bias's are obviously ended by the completion of the shoe

This is probably worth consideration...65% of shoes had definite Bias's of 10+ hands that changed 3 or more times (usually chop...neutral...chop or vica versa) A single 5+iar was followed by a change of Bias in 68% of cases (Go figure)

Ellis is 100% correct... +5 Units is the way to go...but I'm finding that I can hit "+5" generally twice or 3 or on occasion even 4 times (a rarity) in the same shoe (I never play every hand of a shoe...I watch for the Bias...get in...grab my +5 and stop and watch for the Bias to change as it surely will. I now mostly play the shoes that are put up on the computer screens so I can monitor 4 shoes at a time and jump on when I see a Bias developing

I can't teach the way I play (a man has to recognise his limitations) and after my efforts last time ...I'm sorry but at the risk of confusing you...it's better for all if you don't ask any questions (I had some serious personal shit going down and my brain got fried by all the questions asked)

I believe Ellis is trying to design a system that is foolproof so that anyone can win with minimal effort...but I can assure you that Ellis has already armed you with the weapons to beat the Casino...but he can't fire the gun for you...He won't always be here to hold your hand...(The poor old bugger is on his last legs)...kidding Ellis

If you put the work in...YOU CAN BEAT THE CASINO


PS:No offence intended to anyone ...but I don't check my PM's so I'm not meaning to be rude by not answering...I just posted these statistics hoping that some of you might make sense of them...some may find them useful but I'm betting that most will find them just an unnecessary "headf###k"

Also: Memo to Ellis...I'm not so sure about using the SAP count...I've found that the 2 biggest probs for me when following the shoe bias were...1) not waiting long enough to see a true Bias manifest itself and 2) waiting too long to start betting ...It's a fine line (I keep a full running count of how each system would fare over the previous 7 hands...S40 and OTB4L...I don't utilise F (except for definite SS F3) as I prefer either S40M1 or Netbetting in Streak Bias's) I don't bother keeping my running count for the whole shoe, but only bother when I begin to see a recognisable Bias forming...When I'm playing this way...my biggest prob is staying awake...LOL

Anyway...I don't play the MDB+5 system so I'm not sure if I'm talking out of my arse here and none of my observations apply

Good health Ellis

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  • Keith Smith changed the title to My take on "Pre-shuffled" Shoes with statistics (506 shoes) | ECD GROUP | June 27, 2014

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