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Hi, Just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the the two shoes I lost below? I ended up 27 unit in front even after the the two losing shoes.

This is how I played the first shoe:

Started fourth player so that was my first win S40 2 bets only

P 11211312611244

This how I played the second shoe:

Started on the fourth player so that was my first win OTBL 2 bets only

P 23124112144

Thanks

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Hi, Just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the the two shoes I lost below? I ended up 27 unit in front even after the the two losing shoes.

This is how I played the first shoe:

Started fourth player so that was my first win S40 2 bets only

P 11211312611244

This how I played the second shoe:

Started on the fourth player so that was my first win OTBL 2 bets only

P 23124112144

Thanks

Not to worry. The likelihood of a 44 in the first shoe was 1 in 8 shoes.

2 shoes iar is 1 in 64 shoes.

You may never see that again.

A 44 is the kiss of death for most systems

UNLESS you are betting straight Repeats or playing TB4L, S40M2 or OTB4LM3.

The first shoe is too choppy for repeats or TB4L

But S40M2 from the beginning puts you at +8.

OTB4LM3 puts you at +5.

S40 is your best choice. U1D2

The OR count was 0 when you got to your 3 bet in the first 4 telling you to bet OTR

and OTR again on the 2nd 4 putting you at +8, down from +9.

Had you started in Mode 3 as your +OR count was telling you

and switched to Mode 2 when the OR count hit 0, as you are supposed to do

you would have done even better

But hitting a second 44 so early in the 2nd shoe, hmm, that should raise some eyebrows.

The 2nd shoe is decidedly OTB4L. If you stay in Mode 3 because of the early 4 a 123 prog gets you to +10

and you actually make money on the 44.

Or, since 1's were so low, straight Repeats is also viable.

There are only 4 1's in the shoe thus far and only one 1 in the first 12 plays.

Edited by Ellis
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Speaking of raising eyebrows:

So I'd be playing a crowded 4 deck BJ game at the Claridge, where the Pros play, and 20 tens in a row come out of the shoe.

That game was incredibly clumped for only 4 decks. Nobody would so much as raise an eyebrow.

20 tens in a row in BJ the odds against it are far greater than 20 Banks in a row.

The odds of each Bank are about 51%.

The odds of each ten are only 4 in 13.

The odds against 20 tens are astronomical.

Yet we would see this FREQUENTLY in that game.

The game is completely impossible to beat with 20 tens missing.

Yet nobody would so much as raise an eyebrow. They just keep right on betting.

Pros my ass!

Casinos don't cheat?

My ass they don't!

Edited by Ellis
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Now, of course, somebody is going to say:

"But Ellis, 20 tens in a row is possible."

Yep, sure it is - the odds are 4/13 to the 20th power - pretty darn close to infinity.

Yet we are seeing this several times a day. DO THE MATH - THEY ARE CHEATING!

And nobody even raises an eyebrow. Freaking lemmings!

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Ellis my casino gives you comfy chairs and drink service for all touch games on main floor but the house takes all B / P bets on ties!

Now that's 10% edge right?

Compared to a 1.25% std commission

No commission other than that and they pay you 2:1 on a 3 card natural win!

And the tables are still busy!

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Ellis my casino gives you comfy chairs and drink service for all touch games on main floor but the house takes all B / P bets on ties!

Now that's 10% edge right?

Compared to a 1.25% std commission

No commission other than that and they pay you 2:1 on a 3 card natural win!

And the tables are still busy!

That is criminal behavior! It is called racketeering!

They should be closed down by local authorities.

Your math is correct. Has anyone reported this to proper authorities?

The players should band together on a class action lawsuit and claim fraud because

the casino is calling it Baccarat. Baccarat has known international rules.

All casinos abide by them except yours.

Your casino is deceiving the public by calling their cheating game Baccarat.

That's not Baccarat - not even close. That is cheating pure and simple.

Make a copy of my post and give it to the Casino Mgr. He should be jailed!

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as you said its me against town hall!

they get away with it because they can

roulette has 2 zeros next to each other on a European layout

blackjack plus rules where all hands push on dealer 22

Point to people is don't play these dodgy games where they offer you something but take away even more - 10% is too much!

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Hi, I was wondering if you would be able to play the shoes out for me like Brad01 kindly did for me in another shoe. I appreciate you sending me the information so promptly! but if I can visually see how you played it then that way I won't make any costly mistakes the next time I hit the casino.

Thanks again.

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Imagenow I would be happy to play them through for you as I did before.

Just need a little more time - will do it tonight.

Went to the casino today to watch UFC - what a win by Dan Henderson - 44 years old and he finished the younger guy in 28 seconds!

Had a look round the baccarat tables but didn't like what I saw with their stupid tie takes all rule so didn't play.

Jumped on roulette and seen a perfect TBL bias - no 2's at all

Guess what as soon as I started betting a 2 came up!

F**k them I picked it would go back to opposites as roulette always does and switched to S40 and made some units and got out of there!

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Brad, I don't follow UFC but always good to see older guy beaten the younger guys. I can see your fustration with the ties on the baccarat table I have seen at the start of the shoe 10 ties, 11 players, 15banks. Looking forward to see how you would play the shoes!

Thanks.

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post-3840-14500262648835_thumb.png

This is how I would play - well not exactly but according to NOR pretty close

1's and 2's = S40

First up the OR count is + and first 3rd bet win shows M3 so start in M3 but then a 4+ comes and then the OR count is clearly going - quite fast so points to M2 so change to M2

This is not a great shoe as there's not many plays to really get going but you can see the process of start slow and determine the correct mode and its starting to get there.

But the switching between the 3 and then the 4+'s makes it hard to get the mode right for S40 and the 1's are not enough to make S40 real effective.

If you win 3iar its good to hit U1D2M2 as if your hit rate is good or not bad then its easy to get in the + quickly and follow half decade rule and you are forced to walk away with a win

If it looks bad then continue betting slow and consider a win of only few units.

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post-3840-14500262649179_thumb.jpg

2nd shoe

OTBL straight up as 2's and 3's at the start - I mean that's the early signs.

Theres not many plays to work off so start betting straight away with a U1D2M2 except when determining modes, bet a 0 and restart the progression.

I like OTBL as its pretty durable and covers straights and ZZ's in terms of modes.

It can deal with some streaks on one hand, ZZ's on the other and then goes back to neutral betting 2's and 3's as the bread and butter.

These type of shoes if you get the modes right you can really kill them I believe.

Unfortunately I haven't seen too many online at the moment - it seems to be S40 at the moment.

Ellis tells how he used to play OTBL in the morning after card prep consistently OTBL every day

My casino and I believe all Australian casinos still produce them via auto shuffle machines but they put in a few long ZZ runs and Straight runs to confuse you - I believe that's their game - give you OTBL with a long straight run and a long ZZ run and while you are looking at the straights it goes back to OTBL and then it goes to ZZ's and then you start to look at that and then it goes back to OTBL - gets everyone. The chinese players are losing big $$ trying to play repeats

I've got them worked out I believe but I'm not playing their tie wins all games - they have other non touch games that are not like that but you know what - I can get consistent S40 shoes online so why give these guys my business?

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Brad, Thanks for all your help! Ellis replied to my post and has + 10 OTBL for the second shoe although he starts at the begining of the shoe and stays in mode 3 but does do 123 progression. I asked him to play it out but has not come back to me yet. Just wondering what your thoughts are? Sorry to be a pain in the bum but just want to get it right.

Thanks Again.

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Yes you can get that if you play it from the start that way.

If you are fairly confident its an OTBL shoe and that its going to be mode 3 then you can start playing from the start even with U1D2M2 from the start then its possible to build up fast

You can play it both ways - as if you know the shoe already, or as if you don't know whats coming and so have to make decisions from what you see

That's the way I played it - as though I didn't know whats coming and so have to choose OTBL and the modes before start betting.

Ellis does say that he believes what separated him from just the average blackjack player or bac player was table selection.

I can relate to that as if you play the same cards after they are hand shuffled you see the same patterns

S40 stays S40 - M3 stays M3, and M2 stays M2 for a long time and they slowly change as they are shuffled more times.

So in that case you can jump straight in and start betting.

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There's your +10

Right, High 2s and 4s is ALWAYS OTB4LM3 even if it also has high 3s.

High 5+s you'd go to M2.

Every member needs to get to where he automatically knows what system and what Mode to play

by simply looking at what's hi and what's low.

Then if nothing is paricularly hi or lo - that is MDB+ or RSAP.

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