Vegas Trip Oct 15th - 18th

[Keith Smith]

As we say it was a Stone Groove play session in Vegas this week I am posting this on the public forum also so many who are considering joining will see we are real players with Professional Players, Casino Dealers and Casual Players.

We started off at the Palms on the advice of one of our players Uday who said that the Palms was dealing too many TBL games.  He mentioned it was extremely predictable and stuck. Unfortunately, he couldn’t make it along with some others who wanted to swing by and play but Mike and myself were all about the Palms.

We initially played up 1 down 1 with TBL and won pretty much every shoe the first day.  It was uncanny how the streaky games kept reoccurring at literally every table we played at.  The streaks could be all one sided or zig zag.   Many players only think that a streak is one-sided Bank or Player but a true TBL game can be also Zig Zag (opposite) runs.

The following day we met Way2Fast at the Aria and played a shoe or two and then convinced him that the game at the Palms was in fact very predictable and a TBL game.  We went bac and plyed another there shoes with hi and low and behold more of the same.  W2F likes to find opportunities and bet on either high probability bets with a small spread.  Watching and analyzing his play, (due to the fact that he is a real pro and one of our best players if not the best) One of his tricks is he watches for complex events (composed of multiple instances of opposites or repeats in most cases) and bets accordingly based on the casino conditions.  Either they will tend to repeat or they will tend not to.  I let him elaborate in the private forum if W2F so chooses to.  In addition, at the Aria watching the SAP count and the normalization of it seems to be a nice way to play.  I need to watch the game more there to see if SAP count tends to normalize in the games there.  The strategy reminds me of the Zero Proximity Count Blackjack Method that bets more when the Blackjack count is close to the Zero line as the dealers breaks more when the cards are closest to random or crossing the Zero Line. 

The following day Mike and myself decided to play group bank.  One to watch the game and the other to act consultant and observer.  We started the day trying to spot bet high probability bets with limited success but Mike kept saying it was a TBL game still.  The rub was he wasn’t truly betting TBL or rather missing some of the TBL opportunities by not betting enough hands. As the observer my job was to provide feedback on the decisions, you are playing spot TBL missing much of the 5 and 6 in a rows by not betting every hand in the streak.  While spot betting high probability bets is a great way to play the game was obviously biased for streaks and getting on them after the 3^rd r 5^th play was missing opportunity.  He the switched to up as you win on streaks and we caught two or the 6 in a rows u 1 as you win and had our best day.

Mike has over 40 shoes of the Palms to input and our premium members can see them all in the Stats For Profits interface. Here is an example f how we are working on the score card display.

 

 

 

 

In addition, we went to South Point where we played a few shoes and won.  I was trying a few 2.2.1 shoes and won.  We stopped at the Luxor and took a them for a few hundred in two shoes and also another group bank at the Hard Rock.  Again Mike is a statistics nut so he will have them in SFP interface.

Lessons learned from my perspective is that I am a time keeper.  I decided to stop playing on Tuesday at about 5pm knowing that I was running out of time and if I were to lose a shoe (imagine that) I may not have time to recover it back. I took the money and was happy for the big win.  Mike always plays till the last second and as normal if it wasn’t for the last minute the profit would have been 50% less for him.

You never know who is watching as at the end of the day the dealer looked at me and said hey Keith should I switch to Baccarat, I am a member.  He dealt to us for three days and never said word that he was a member.  Maybe he will chime in now. 

As for game selection, it is easier to find a predictable game that TBL or SAP beats and play that than try to figure out a struggling game. Just go find a game that you can beat.  Again my contention is that if a bias is cause by assignable cause, it happens in the entire casino as it did at the Palms.  I ask our dealer member what he said when I ask him why he thought there we so many repeats here he said it is the shuffle.

We are planning on going again on or about the 12^th.  Members are welcome to join us, so sign up because it really is more fun when you win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[avion]

Thank you Keith for the trip report, and congrats on your earnings.  

Would love to hear/read/learn of way2fast in what he looks for, and certainly respect his choice not to.  

It was somewhat uncanny, regarding the dealer you met.  It would be interesting to hear what he based his answer upon to you in how the cards are shuffled, regarding the repeating shoes.   

[Action Mike]

Great summary of the trip, Keith.  I just finished entering all of the shoes into StatsForProfits. Keith and I played more than 25 shoes together at the Palms, plus a handful at other casinos.  I had a two day head start on Keith so on the day he arrived, I played up 1 down 2 with a 3 unit minimum.  I won 65 units in the first 3 shoes we played together.  The rest of the trip had similar results and we netted more than 100 units over 3 days at the Palms, even after a 50 unit loss on an idea we decided to test at the wrong time.  By the way, the image Keith posted is an newer scorecard view in development for the Stats For Profits interface.  I am expecting a few more updates to the system in the next week and we will put all the new features online for everyone to use at once. 

[avion]

Thanks Mike for sharing, and congrats to you also on your earnings and thank you also the updates about STP. 

Edited October 21, 2016 by avion