Keith Smith

This is a test for vbookie to have fun with I will add some permisions for others to add events and play money bet on I hope you like vbookie. Make a bet KS

Who will win?

What they don't tell you a lot of times is we may play a sacrifice hand, one with the money and the other to feed the dealer the cards we want him to get.

Keith What is your email address and I will send it to you Regards KS

We had a great seminar in PA. One person who joined left without the password for his manual if you are him email me and i will send it to you. We threw out two card counters who brought their own information to pass out. Sent by the casinos no doubt or caught up in the self admiration society. K

If you have any questions about the upcoming seminar in PA please ask them here by reponding to this thread.

This is what they say should happen.. Compared to what actually happen.

Do they deal a no hole card game up there at all?

Re you going to make it? How you like the manual? KS

Doc hollidays I-83 Exit 40A • PA Turnpike Exit 242 110 Limekiln Road, New Cumberland PA 17070 YOu guys coming we are starting at 7pm the 16th KS

Hey would love to haveyou guys come. Sorry I have been busy getting the manual looking good. The casino is being built and not open yet it is own by Penn National Gaming so no playing yet. This is a practice one for me to get back in shape so when we do one in AC or Vegas we can all play. I am firming up the room tomorrow night as I have a gig at the hotel where the seminar is Planned on the 16th more to follow on Sunday with details. How do you like the manual I need to add a few missing pages graphics and a nice cover. Regards KEith

JayJayz! Welcome aboard. I think that what you assume is what many others assume. I dont care if you buy our approach for money or not either way you are more than welcome. As for those guys in the gambling circle get a little thick skin and you will be fine here Give them grief back As for card counting the biggest thing to understand first is that the cards need to be in a random condition. If the cards are random, card counting works and is the best way to play BJ hands down. When the cards become clumped, it tends to favor dealer strategy, not necessarily the dealer, the whole basis of our play. Don't take my word for it check out Ken USton's old newsletters where he said that the cards have reminants of sequential order. And further said that he has no idea why the casino are allowed to deal cards like that. To make a long story short, this is why and what we are all about. Do this test in your casino. Go to the casino and note when a high card (9,10 value or ace) and of the 14 cards on the table how many cards are group high and how many are low (Ace, 2, 3 ,4 5, 6). The 7 and 8 say are neutral. Shouid be close to 50/50 per round right, with a ceratin amount of variation. Look how many times you see rounds that are 11 high of 14 cards and 11 - 12 lows of 14 cards on the table. Think you should see that happen all the time?

Your welcome Dont forget the main forum as it keeps people coming back as we need more registered players posting. Also if you can get guys to link to our site it will help KS

see reply above

I'm sure it is how about at least a link back to us

<CENTER>Nature of Player Advantage <HR width="75%" SIZE=5></CENTER>THE NATURE OF PLAYER ADVANTAGE: It has long been known and, in fact, both sides fully agree, that high cards favor the player and low cards favor the dealer. When there is an abundance of low cards in the cards being dealt the game strongly favors the dealer for two reasons: Low cards present the players with a higher incidence of stiff hands (12 through 16). These are the worst hands a player can receive. There is no way to add up a series of low cards (2 through 6) and avoid getting a stiff hand. At the same time, low cards drastically reduce dealer breaks. There is no way the dealer can break on low cards with the single exception - she could arrive at 16 and draw a 6. On the other hand, high cards SLIGHTLY favor the player. When there is an abundance of high cards being dealt, the incidence of receiving pat hands (17 through 21) improves EQUALLY for the dealer and the player. However, by the rules of the game, the dealer must hit all of her stiff hands. The greater the abundance of high cards the more likely the dealer will break when she does receive a stiff. But the player, by the rules, always has the option of hitting or standing. Therefore, we can say that high cards tend to increase dealer breaks even though they also increase dealer pat hands. In addition, high cards increase the incidence of blackjacks (A,10) EQUALLY for dealer and player alike. But a BJ affords greater advantage to the player than to the dealer because of the 50% payout premium given to the player receiving a BJ. This is not as large a player advantage as it might seem, however. Recognize that BJs only occur about once in 21 hands. An abundance of high cards increase the dealer's chance of receiving BJ just as much as the player's. When the dealer receives BJ, she not only pushes (ties) any player BJs, she cannot be beat by any player no matter what his hand. Another player advantage of an abundance of high cards is that they improve the players chances when he doubles down on 9, 10, and 11, even though they tend to reduce these double down opportunities. (Please allow me to note, here, that I refer to dealers as "she" and players as "he" strictly for writer's convenience and no other reason.) THE BIG QUESTION: Now that we have identified the nature and the basis of player advantage as high cards, we can pose the big question. Which approach predicts high card fall better, Clumping or Counting? I think we can all agree (if that is ever possible) that the approach that fulfills that duty best is the best overall approach to the shoe game. One last thing, let's define Player Advantage, here, as money won divided by money risked, the same as we would define ROI or Return on Investment. After all, that is the goal of both sides- to win money! Which approach does this better in the shoe game?

<CENTER>AN INTRODUCTION TO CLUMPING</CENTER><CENTER>by E. C. Davis</CENTER><CENTER><HR width="75%" SIZE=5></CENTER> BLACKJACK, THE ART OF PREDICTING: Regardless of whether we are a beginner, a card counter, a clumper, or a full time professional player, Blackjack is about predicting. And Blackjack systems are merely tools to help us predict better. When we hit 14, we are predicting that the next card out of the shoe is a 7 or less and we are predicting that the dealer is not going to break. When we double on 11, we are predicting that the next card out of the shoe is a high card. When we insure, we are predicting that the dealer has a 10 down. That side bet has absolutely nothing to do with the hand we happen to hold. If she has the 10, we win. If she doesn't, we lose. When we stand with less than 17 we are predicting that the dealer is going to break. What else could we be betting? When we raise our bet, we are predicting that we are going to win the next hand. Why else would we raise our bet? Whoever predicts best is going to win the most money. Whatever system helps us predict best is the system we should be learning and playing, which brings us to the NBJ approach. THE HIGH - LOW CARD ARRANGEMENT: First, to simplify our explanation of clumping, let's completely rearrange our card groups. We mentioned before that most counters arrange the 13 cards into three groups with 2-6 low; 7-9 neutral; and 10-A high. The first thing we are going to do is toss out the neutral group altogether. It is never used for anything so why have it? Let's simply call: low cards A,2,3,4,5,6,7 and high cards 8,9,0,0,0,0,A. HIGH AND LOW ACES: Your first question might be: how can we have two aces? Remember that aces can be played either high or low. We call an ace following a low card a "low ace" and an ace following a high card a "high ace". This makes our low group precisely equal in size to our high group. If we somehow knew in which group the next card out of the shoe was, high or low, we could play virtually perfect Blackjack and we would win virtually every game we sat down to! EIGHTS ARE HIGH? Sacrilege, right? Look at it this way. An 8 will USUALLY break a stiff dealer and an 8 will USUALLY satisfy the need for a high card. If you doubled on 11 and drew an 8 and were then offered to keep it or draw again, you would keep it wouldn't you? Simple math tells us that, if we draw again, we have 5 chances of improving our hand (9,10) vs. 7 chances of hurting our hand (A-7). PREDICTING THE DEALER'S HOLE CARD: If, in addition, we could identify which group the dealer's hole card is in, we would probably be cured of counting in the shoe game forever. Thousands of players have advanced from counting to clumping. Yet, I don't know of a single player who ever gave up clumping for counting! This should tell you something! Can we actually predict the dealer hole card with any degree of accuracy? Well, all we need is a prediction rate above 50% to beat the counter. How does 60% to 90% sound? READ ON! WHAT ABOUT PLAYING BOTH? This is not only feasible, it is a very viable approach. In fact, many of our players do both, particularly Western Europeans who seem bent on possessing every iota of advantage. But playing both is not for everyone. It is very brain wracking and does not add sufficient advantage to make it worth while to any but the most dedicated players. Most players stumble over the count sufficiently to miss some of the game's most critical information and would be better off not counting. If your intention is to play both, then learn to count down a deck of cards smoothly and automatically in less than 15 seconds, as I have. This prerequisite rules out most players. But that is of little consequence. If you choose to embark on this option, and you have not yet learned to count, learn clumping first because that is where most of the advantage is in the shoe game. Then learn counting to augment and verify. THE BEST OF BOTH WORLDS: The Clumper already enjoys the best of both worlds. Some mutideck shoes ARE random and some SECTIONS of all multideck shoes are random. The clumper is quickest to identify random situations and WILL play basic strategy in those random situations. Clumping CALLS for basic in random situations because basic is the best way to play random situations. Both sides fully agree on that point! Therefore, the clumper will win just about every shoe the counter wins because when the counter is at maximum advantage in random situations the clumper plays just like the counter. It is in the far more common non random situations that the clumper excels because the clumper is often at his greatest ADvantage precisely when the counter is at his greatest DISadvantage. This point alone should convince any thinking person which way to go. UNITY: What we need is unity among player strategists. The casinos, our mutual enemy, are highly unified and organized. But player strategists spend more time arguing with each other than determining the best ways to beat casinos. The counter camp boasts some excellent mathematicians. Together, we could do some real good. It is obvious here that we have studied their way exhaustively. But counter arguments demonstrate to me that they have not studied our way at all. WHAT IS IN CLUMPING? Clumping is just that, the art of predicting whether the next card out of the shoe is high or low, as defined above, and whether the dealer's hole card is high or low. In the shoe game, this information is far more vital and far more determinant than the count. The shoe game is a relatively brand new BJ game. It offers brand new information only obtainable through a brand new approach. To apply a single deck approach to a multideck game is simply not the optimum way to beat the shoe game. HOW THE CARDS GET CLUMPED: "Clumped" merely means that the nature of the shoe game strongly tends to clump the cards into groups of mostly high and mostly low cards. How? Each player in the game can be thought of as a little low card clump factory. The dealer can be thought of as a large low card clump factory. And the dealer's card pick up procedure can be viewed as a major low card and high card clump factory. THE PLAYER LOW CARD CLUMP FACTORY: Obviously, when a player receives high cards, that's it, he doesn't hit. He hits when he receives low cards. When the player hits, he has usually already put two lows together that were not together before. He hits from a third part of the shoe with a 50 - 50 chance of adding more lows and often ends up creating a solid low clump of several cards. THE DEALER LOW CARD CLUMP FACTORY: The dealer creates low clumps the same way players do except that the dealer must continue hitting until she has at least 17. This makes for longer low card clumps. In the shoe game it doesn't even raise an eyebrow when the dealer makes a 5 or 6 card hand. She often goes more! THE HIGH CARD CLUMP FACTORY? Most high and low card clumps are created by the card pickup procedure. But recognize that low card clumps automatically create high card clumps. You can't have one without the other. The high cards have to be somewhere. THE CARD PICK UP PROCEDURE CLUMP FACTORY: This is the grandaddy of clump makers. First, recognize that break cards are USUALLY mostly lows. Non break cards are mostly highs and often ALL highs. Recognize that the dealer, by the rules, picks up all break hands and puts them in the discard rack together, regardless of how they may have been dispersed on the table. She then picks up all non break hands and puts them in the discard rack together, regardless of how they were dispersed on the table. This, very effectively, sorts mostly high cards from mostly lows in the discard rack. Casinos have recognized this, as well as its obvious subversion of basic strategy since the inception of multideck BJ. It is the driving force behind multideck Blackjack. How do we know this? You old timers may remember the dual discard rack that we still see in some out of the way island and boat casinos. Its only purpose was just in case the normal card pick up didn't clump the cards enough, the dealer provided extra clumping by putting the mostly high or all high pat hands in one rack and the break hands in the other. What other purpose could dual racks possibly serve? To aid a possible replayback of the cards? Bull! If casinos were interested in replaybacks they would simply pick up all hands in turn!. What simpler replayback could there be? But, you say, parroting the casinos: "We pick the break cards up first to avoid payout errors." Double bull! If this were even a concern, the dealer need only close the break hand or even move it forward on the table, then go ahead and pick up all hands in turn. In fact, in an attempt to prove me wrong, a Minnesota casino tried exactly that! But they quickly abandoned the project when they saw what it did to their bottom line. When the hands are picked up in turn, basic strategy is no longer subverted and those playing it, which is almost everybody, have a real shot at the game. Now, maybe you understand why I'll never get published in Casino Player. Well, big whip! AND THE MORE PLAYERS THERE ARE IN THE GAME....... Recognize that when we play the dealer head to head (my favorite game), the cards are picked up in the same sequence regardless of dealer or player breaks. Head up play does not clump the cards. In fact, the opposite is true. Head up play tends to randomize the cards, a fact often utilized by clumpers. But as we add players, we increase the number of break card hands as well as the number of non break hands going into the discard rack together. So, the more players the larger the clumps and the longer the cards are in play the more clumped they become until the cards achieve what we clumpers call "saturation". At that point, all normal game statistics are subverted, including DBR dealer break rate, DAH dealer average hand and HWR hands won ratio. We achieve what we call "Saturday night conditions". BUT ELLIS, THEY SHUFFLE THE CARDS! Triple Bull! I think we have demonstrated above that casinos clearly have little interest in eliminating clumping in the shoe game, and every reason to preserve it. Most casinos employ shuffles in the shoe game that only shuffle each card three times. Lately, several major casinos went to shuffles that shuffle each card twice! Either way, these shuffles do virtually nothing to reduce clumping and could just as well be eliminated altogether as the casino's own experiments have concluded. To demonstrate this to yourself, simply take a fresh deck of cards still in the boxed card order and shuffle twice. Then check the card order. You will find you did next to nothing to the card order. Recognize that the more decks you add the less damage you do to the card order. Dealers could not shuffle out these clumps even if they wanted to. And whenever they happen to shuffle highs with highs or lows with lows they create even larger clumps. In fact, it is common to find Saturday night games where the entire shoe is composed of only two or three major clumps. We call these type 6 games. Here, the clumper's predictive abilities can go clear up to 80 and even 90% accuracy while the DBR goes right through the floor along with the basic strategy player's hands won ratio. The clumper's expression for this is "Welcome to Atlantic City". Like what you read? Want the whole story? Want to win? Buy the NBJ Manual for download and get support from the author to E. Clifton Davis To order the manual click here

Updated attachments It should be Twister, AntiTwister, Advanced Twister and Streak Exploit. They are marked in the upper left corner.

Attached to this reply are the game samples

Introduction to: The E. Clifton Davis Twister Series Baccarat Classroom We are sharing this first Twister Series Baccarat Clinic with the general public so they can get a feel for what goes on in these clinics which are conducted on a regular basis and make an informed decision. Recognize that all future clinics will be presented in private forum for Twisters subscribers only. In keeping with our mission statement at the beginning of the beatthecasino.com site, the purpose of these ongoing clinics is not only for players to fully understand the five Twister Series Systems but to comprehend and appreciate the overall Twister approach. It is not only a forum to get your every question answered thoroughly, but a commitment devoted to creating the best Baccarat players in the world in open casino floor play, private high stakes room play and million dollar tournament play. Devoted students can and will become winning players just as many Twister players already have. CLASS 1: The multiple systems approach: I have often said there are two ways to win at Baccarat: 1.) To walk into a casino with a single system in hopes of finding a table it will beat, or 2.) Walk into the casino armed with multiple systems and the knowledge to quickly select the best system for the game at hand. Recognize that in the second approach, we retain the option of changing tables if we so desire but we are not FORCED to switch tables as we are in the first approach every time our single system does not happen to match the game at hand. This second approach, The Twister approach, is the essential key to winning at Baccarat. It separates the pros from the amateurs. Yet The Twister is the ONLY multiple systems approach you will find. Sure, there are two mode systems out there. In fact the basic Twister is a two mode system. Both from test data and from live casino play conducted by many of our players, all over the world, I know that the basic Twister is the best two mode system available. But that is not enough. It’s like going to war with a single weapon albeit a good weapon. The Twister is just our opening salvo at the casino, it is not the entire war. It’s main purpose is to point to the best system. It’s the start of a war. Fighting that war best is the object of these clinics. If Multiple systems is the key to success, then quick selection is the key to multiple systems. To that end, I would like to call your attention to color coded Twister and AntiTwister games 1. I have attached these games in the private classroom copy of this class so Twister subscribers who happen to be reading this public edition need to use your assigned password now and go to your private edition where you can view the games we are discussing. Obviously I cannot share these games with the general public. I said in your manual that ”AtiTwister does not particularly like streak”. I do not mean to infer that AntiTwister cannot beat streaky shoes. I simply mean that AntiTwister, albeit your strongest overall system, is not necessarily your best choice in a consistent streaky situation. Twister, since it wins every bet in a run usually from the second circle of a run, is the better choice at a streaky table. The longer the runs the better for Twister. I would like to call your attention to game 1: while this game, at first glance looks normal enough, if you perform the column count, like I taught you in your manual, you will see that this shoe has a -15 count. This means that it has 15 more repeats than opposites. I qualify anything lower than -10 as extreme streak, and anything over +10 as extreme chop. So, you can see already that extreme shoes are quite common. I do not mean to imply that you must perform these counts to play, but the count gives you accurate inside information for system selection. Btw, the Streak Exploit hits +328 in the first column of this same shoe. How would we have known to play it? If we are consistently seeing shoe counts below -10 at our table, that is the signal for Streak Exploit. Think that is sufficient reason to learn this simple count process. Think it might be worth it? Now, please refer to AntiTwister game 1: In spite of the fact that this is an extreme streak shoe, AntiTwister breezes right through it with little trouble. Our worst position is -5 at play 4 but we quickly recover to a +8 in the first column making our goal +18. We hit +18 at play 35 before we even get halfway through the shoe. And if we decide to continue past our goal since we hit it so early in the shoe, our decade cash mgt. would stop us at play 62 with a +30. A spectacular shoe by any measurement. Now look at the same shoe played with Twister: Overall we do even better: Our worst position is only -1 at play 3 recovering to a +11 in column 1 making our goal +22. We hit +22 at play 41. That’s a little late in the shoe to continue on but if we had we would hit +27. Very, very strong considering our worst position and our highest bets. The lesson here? Twister is stronger and safer in streak shoes than AntiTwister or Advanced Twister. Btw, advanced Twister hits +21 at play 48 in this same shoe. So that answers one important question already. Does Advanced Twister replace Twister? NO! They each have separate strengths. Twister beats chop but is strongest in streak AntiTwister usually beats streak but the chopier the better. Advanced T. beats most anything but is strongest in neutral. Streak Exploit likes consistent counts lower than -10. Chop Exploit likes consistent counts higher than +10. The Twister loves runs following runs, so common in Vegas and it loves sporadic ones and high disparity, the nemesis of most systems. Upcoming lesson plans: The many advantages of Baccarat over Blackjack. Disparity - What is it and how we use it for system selection. Sporadic 1’s - What are they and how to take advantage of them. How to count your money on the table in a split second and why its important to always know exactly where you stand. How casinos orchestrate games and how to exploit that fact. Casino outright cheating - If you have been playing Baccarat for a year or more you have been cheated. How to recognize the many kinds of casino cheating and what to do about it. How to cheat right back without getting caught. How to watch the shuffle and accurately determine the upcoming shoe type and which system to play. How to time the shuffle machine to know which system to play. No, we don’t use a stop watch. That’s how I got ejected from Foxwood. But if it didn’t work, they wouldn’t have ejected me. How to use the tote board to know what system to play. How to use player’s scorecards to know what system to play. The importance of the blue deck and the red deck The rules and why you must know them. The most frequently asked questions. System Selection: Since this is our most important subject, I’ll have something to say about it in every class. And anything you deem important.

E Clifton Davis' world renowed NEW BLACKJACK is now available for download. NBJ was first sold and marketed by Jerry Patterson and was his most successful publication. Beat The Casino is proud to be the exclusive distributor of NBJ. There is nothing like NBJ. Included with NBJ is mentoring on this forum by E. Clifton Davis himself. No other Blackjack author will answer your questions and play with you in the casino as much as E. Clifton Davis. His students have won millions of dollars playing winning Blackjack. Learn how to Beat The Casino by turning their clumping tactics against them. Learn how to be a real Pro player form his students and Davis himself in this forum and meet his regular playing partners. Get the edge and tap into the years and years of real casino playing experience from the experts. To get a copy of NBJ follow this LINK

Here is the NBJ Newsletter from April 1994. The full version is here in PDF Format. To buy a downloadable version of NBJ follow this link

Here is the 1993 Newsletter from April. The full newsletter in pdf format is here.

NIce game Carlos. The ac game is getting better. Going down next thursday night if you are in the Area. What Casino are you playing at maybe I can get up KS