Keith Smith

They don't even understand they lose!!!There convinced they win as their bankroll diminishes waiting for the long term surprised

Ok you and I understand this and the way to play. My point is that when you try to explain to a card counter the concept, it is easier for that party line to understand that a seven high cards in a row shouldn't occur as often as we see it, rather than trying to show them a count that tracks as you say. If I say to them, look we just saw 7 high card s in a row in this game 15 times in two shoes they should get that becasue the random occurance of this happening is 1 time every other shoe. And the fact that this happens on every table its not a statistical irregularity but contrived. I am trying to make a point about clumping and how you can effectively get someone who is oblivious to it to understand it not make a system or approach

No i'm not trying to do a table selection I am trying to place numbers of Blackjack events. Ok so if we group the cards as Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = low and, 8, 9, 10. 10, 10, 10, Ace = High So we have a 50/50 change of a high or low appearing. Now just to give it a simplier perspective, I said lets call Low cards red if any of them follow each other and high cards black. So this run of cards Ace, Jack, Queen Ace, 10, 9, 10 is a seven in a row of high card so for the sake of events a black seven in a row. Now for a random game how often should I see that . In an Bac shoe I should see it about 1 time every two shoes or about .5 times a shoe on average. I see this about 3 times and even more time a shoe in most multiple deck blackjack games. By knowinghow often the events should occur in a random game i can gauge by observing how clumped or closer to random games are . Does that make sense?:1zhelp:

No I just want to figure out a simple concept, in a random game how often should we see a "run" of straight high cards or low cards. After we know how often it should occur in a random game what are we actually seeing.

Well I am trying to get some counters reading this too anyway ok reaarange them in the order we play. Play Ace high and low. Highs are Ace - Eight and Lows are Ace - seven. How often should we see a 10 in a row in a random game and then once we know what it should be we can jusdge it against what we see. :banghead:

I wasn't really concerned with what card counters think I was arranging them my way, as we play. This way I can try to get a more objective "count" on how clumped the game is. Sorry Kit my shooter just knocked your marble out of the ring big grin But yes I agree the eights tend to clump with the high cards and all what you said I'm trying to get a discussion going here. Who wants to figure out what the statistical norm for a random game in an hour for 4 in a rows fives and runs greater. If we can do the norm then I was trying to place an objective count on clumping frequency in a game, Not only to survey the game but the casino. I don't think it matters if you only have a high, low sets and no neutral but i would like to do the math to get an idea how many times in random we should see a ten card run of highs or lows. If we see it 5 times in an hour then how does that compare to norm and then what if I look in a second game and see it 7 times in an hour.

If we figure that we have an average 7 player game with the dealer we have 16 cards dealt in BJ. If we add the hit cards we average about 22 cards per round. In 75 rounds per hour we have a total of 1650 events so to speak. From your calculations in a random game we should see about 24% one in a rows. Of course a one in a row is any combination of these subsets, and an ace ace could be a high card or a low card. ( Ace, King, Queen, Jack, Ten, Nine) or ( Ace, Two, Three, Four , Five, Six) Red Black Neutral card are 7 and 8 White So I should see a 3 in a row of anything Red ( High Cards) or Black (Low Cards) etc.

Cool thanks sometime my brain just stops in my old age. Thanks KS

Yes it does thank you

Heike, Thanks. Can we figure in a time element such that, in the course of an hour we should see ( or rather an amount within the statistical norm would be )x amount of 1 in a rows x amount of two in a rows etc within an hour with 75 rounds chances an hour. KS

If I have say 24 red possibilities and 24 black possibilities and 8 (white) possibilities that fall under breaking a red or black streak what should be the random occurences of 1 in a rows 2 in a rows 3 in a rows for red and black. What about white? Any help.:33:

Hats off to you Matt! A student who used his power of observation and common sense to figure something out. I admire your high powered perception it will serve you well. Keith

Neil I updated your permisions to the WCB forum since you bought in 93. Welcome back. :arms:

Ok Suzanne and me will be there also. We may do a seminar if Ellis can make it. And I'm playing teams with my old blackjack partner Ellis.

You dont like team play hahahha

. Ok you dont like team play. I dont think you're stupid though for not liking it.

Well I guess me & Ellis are stupid then thats all we ever did in the 90's is play together. At the Taj, Clardige, Central City , Foxwoods, Vegas. Hell I used to throw my chips to him and vis versa. I remeber throwing Harvey black chips when he played first base and Ellis was at third and I was in the middle. I guess we were stupid then hahahah K