Keith Smith

Grab it here http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6139

And you'll never know Reaper cause you know it all. Anyway The System is $229 that includes one month access to the private forum. If you want to continue is $50.00 a month.

Q&A: So is tracking clumping efficiently taken the place of counting. I always found counting took so long to get to any great advantage. Answer: And with traditional card counting you Never get to any "great" advantage. So fine, there are excess ten's in the remaining cards. They are only slightly player favorable and you still have no idea of where they are. Then, when you finally get to those tens, the dealer is just as likely to get them as you are. They are only favorable if the dealer has a low up card which is least likely in a high tens area of the shoe. The fact is. that traditional card counters lose overall, in spite of the hype and the movies. Movies are fictional. I know many successful Blackjack players but none of them are traditional card counters. In spite of all their forums and all their hype, after 30 years, I have yet to find a single bottom line winning card counter. Have you? You will find far better ways to play right here. The game CAN be beat. But card counting is not the way. You are so busy card counting you miss the IMPORTANT stuff going on in the game. If you think you can't lose in a high count, try this experiment. Take a single deck of cards and separate the lows from the highs. Put all the highs on the bottom and all the lows on the top. The perfect counter's shoe, right? Deal youself a head to head game. With a perfect count you should kill the game, right? WRONG! You'll be lucky to win a single hand. First, the dealer will NEVER break. She can't! She can't break in all lows and she can't break in all highs. In the lows, basic strategy has you standing stiff every hand. (12 -16). When you stand stiff you are betting one thing and one thing only - that the dealer will break. But she can't, can she. You lose every hand in the lows. Now we get to the highs. Nodody hits so nobody breaks. Generally you will either push or lose. You might get lucky and get dealt a 20 against a dealer 19 but usually luck goes to the dealer. How many unlucky dealers do you know? You'll likely push or lose every hand in the shoe. And that was with the best count possible. Now try the experiment again but this time with the highs and lows perfectly intertwined. Now you win nearly every hand with the worst possible count. So much for card counting. What do we learn from this? A lot of really important stuff they avoid telling you in card counting books, like: The higher the count the less the dealer will break. A plain and simple truth. You need to HIT in low card sections. THAT is how the dealer beat you. Get in the game. HIT! Don't sacrifice the hand to the dealer. The BEST games in BJ are the games with the LOWEST count, not the highest. Card counters avoid the best games like the plague. They look for the WORST possible games - the games with the highest counts. WRONG! Still want to be a card counter? Well, you aren't alone. There are many other lemmings charging the cliff BUT, if you want to beat BJ, you are in the right place When I play head to head, the dealer has virtually no chance. But I know which games to play and how to play them. All taught right here and no place else Card counters haven't a clue.

Ellis here again: I can't seem to figure out how to log in on Keith's computer. Ha, Just keep thinking Butch! That's what you're good at! But then Butch Cassidy and the Sundace Kid were shot a hundred times shortly thereafter. The odds of a 3 going to 6 are exactly the same as the odds of a 1 going to 4. You might just as well bet opposites from the beginning of the shoe. At least that way you would win on all the 1 in a rows. BTW, the odds of a 6 from scratch are 1 in 128 plays but the odds of a 5 going to 6 are 1 in 2. No matter what you make your prog, it would break even long term. But keep on thinking. Guys, I'm still snow bound in PA and my flights home have been canceled 4 times but tomorrow, Friday, looks pretty good! Didn't get to play much more but I did try THIS quite successfully: I did this on late night mini bac shoes with old cards that were all over the place. Start OTB4L at play 3. Go OTR after ONE losing bet. Stay OTR until you lose or until the straight or ZZ run has gone as long as the longest straight or ZZ run thus far, then back to OTB4L. I used a 112 prog. This did well in totally unpredictable shoes. You win on all straight and ZZ runs longer than 3 as well as all TT runs. We are playing a tournament later this month and I think I'll try that with an U1D2 M2 prog. 112 is not aggressive enough for a Tournament. 3's are not bad because you usually win the first 2 bets on them and always the 2nd. See what you think!

Here are the shoes from Yesterday [ATTACH]2029[/ATTACH][ATTACH]2030[/ATTACH][ATTACH]2031[/ATTACH][ATTACH]2032[/ATTACH][ATTACH]2033[/ATTACH][ATTACH]2034[/ATTACH]

I don't understand what you mean? I didn't mean have a mandatory two then if thats what you are alluding to?

You have to win most of your first bets to have any progression that has a ratio of the first bet to the second and third bet less than 100% of the initial bet as in 2,3,4 or 1,1.5,2 because you win little on the second bet and in reality lose the progression if you win the third. The biggest gain is on the first bet. Of course the mandatory 2 bet works well as in reality that is a first bet, If you were winning most of your second bets and not did a mandatory 2nd bet, you wouldn't have done near as well. I think we need to, in addition to tweaking the system for each game, we need to tweak the progression as we go. I think in essence a mandatory 2nd bet is simply a two bet prog and I think that you would do just a s well to make it a 1 , 1.5 or a 2,3 two bet progression? What do you think? My Thoughts. KS

If you follow a normal distribution of Baccarat Events in a random game all of the events, e.g 1s, 2s,3s,4s, 5 or more in a row when plotted will in fact give you a bell curve. In fact most all with fall within 3 standard deviations on either side of the central tendency. As shown below if you listen to party line of statisticians who think they know casino gambling, this justifies all games and end of story to them. We endlessly hear show us 100,000 shoe we can beat. I can't, the games are over an unspecified time frame and out of context with no days or any other associated data. And are so to speak perfect. While science is the measure of all things, the science has to be an accurate reflection of what is occuring, so your question or request of shoes is a valid one. But before that you must recognize that a population is not required ( the definition as it relates to statistics is explained below). Again the 100,000 shoes have no relevance on what happens in the real world casino and we have no frame or other data except that it is random, usually computer generated games. I can't beat a bell curve distribution yet unless i can bet an endless Fibonacci sequence of bets which no casino will let me. And to that end Why? Becasue that's how you beat it. [ATTACH]2024[/ATTACH] Of course they miss that the game changes due to process variation that is increased and decreased by casino manipultion, normal process drift and any other factors which we may be aware of. We have been following casino profits over the years from table games and take rates. Well their take rates from Blackjack and Baccarat are beyond what the standard deviation model will allow. Lets see if it is a 1% game, how can they make 20%. You don't need to be a statistician to rationalize that something is going on. Are the dealers lucky, players that bad? If you talk to a casino they will report yes its because blackjack players don't play Basic Strategy and Baccarat players pick the wrong side. Oh Ok. Look, they look at a table game the same way they look at a slot machine, how can we manipulate this to have a bigger profit margin. This is where assignable cause variation comes into the process (see the graphic and the highlighted green area). In most business, manufacturing and service industries you are using statistical models to eliminate waste and variation by automating processes and insuring a small level of variation and a minimum mistakes or errors. any variation should fall within the realm of the bell curve and a 1.5 sigma shift of it over time. Makes sense less errors and the more profit the quicker you get things to market and numerous other benefits. But suppose that Ok if I deal a totally random game of Baccarat or Blackjack I can win at a rate of 1%. But suppose someone comes along and now runs a computer simulation and the one deck blackjack game (which is pretty close to random) and the bell curve is normal, yet a statistical model shows a gain for the player if you play a certain way. What do they need to introduce to change the game? Assignable cause game variation that throws off the normal distribution. In this case of blackjack specifically the normal distribution of high cards and low cards. That was step one and step II keep everybody playing the same way. Well not to belabor Blackjack but how did the casinos do with that? Pretty much everyone plays the same way still basic strategy, and the profits for Blackjack are they at 1 % - 5% or 20% maybe someone can look. I know one thing the're a hell of a lot higher than the mathematical advantage allows and far beyond the statistical standard deviation. Why because of assignable cause variation that they implanted on purpose to beat card counter, we here know beyond any doubt what they do and exploit it. Is it a simple always do the same thing model like card counting was ? No, which is what spoiled everyone. Ian Anderson in his book on blackjack joking said pick any of the count strategies, "They all work". But now, you have got to the find the table that has just the right amount of variation (in this case clumping frequency)from random that is easily exploitable by NBJ and believe me it is worth the wait and search. Any way on to baccarat. We are where we are at Baccarat right before we published NBJ in the early 90s. Ok so I mentioned a population and your 100 games. I put in these definitions and examples so you don't think this is a bunch of jibberish. You don't need a population to find assignable cause variation in a process or a sample. [ATTACH]2026[/ATTACH] I go to Hollywood casino a few days before everyone comes down and I start tracking some games for a few days. I am constantly calling Ellis telling him what is going on. He says ok stop looking and play a few games. What I noticed and tracked continued and translated to winning. The bell curve is skewed, not outwards but to the center of the distribution more. In other words there are too many 1 and 2 in a rows and not enough 3 or mores. This means they are dealing too many opposites. How long has it been going on? In a sample of 5 shoes a day for a few days and a test literally of 1 shoe every night I have never lost a shoe by playing system 40. The bell curve looks like a compressed one when it is used to track events. We see too many short runs consistently over a week. [ATTACH]2027[/ATTACH] Ok now at that point what happens, Ellis come on up. When Ellis cam up we played I forget and to be honest WTF cares at this point we have found a bias in the game that was an assignable cause variation. What was the cause... to be honest who cares!!! It happens to much for it to be in the realm of standard deviation. How do I know at the end of the 4 day session I played 16 shoes and won every god damn one of them. That is impossible unless you have some inside information my friend. Did they change the game? Your god damn right they did. The team went back again, told them we were coming ( a stupid move) and the games are oddly short of chop and have long runs dispersed in runs of twos and threes. This is what we do we look for assignable cause variation and have different approaches for each bell curve distro. Is it hard... damn right you have to think, have patiences and be able to change . You have to be able to realize when it is a trend or assignable cause or just a random event with no significance. Most players think you can have it on every shoe in every casino on every night. If you don't believe me, go watch the high stakes Asian players, they think they can beat any shoe and every shoe and predict ties. I can't give you an always do this solution like card counting but I can tell you that you can learn how to do this. Now I just spent my entire evening on this public forum which should tell you something because in the past I usually don't care, but for once ( and this will increase sales I'm sure) I did. It would be easy to sell Casino ads, I don't. Hype easy Systems like other s do I don't. Ellis and my self concentrate on our private members and friends and we are the best at what we do. and as I tell everyone who challenges us, we will be in the Casino bring your cash we will bring ours. regards Images from Villanova University Black Belt Six Sigma Hand Book and Elementary Statistics Picturing the World Larson & Farber

Thanks for writing that you are one of the few counters that read the KEN Uston newsletter and noticed that he indicated that clumping does exist and you can infact predict the cards. In his newsletter he noticed new card clumping or box order clumping.

Folks We could use some reviews on our products listed on Amazon if you would be so kind ! System Level I - http://amzn.com/B004IK8FS2 System Level II - http://amzn.com/B004J17266 System Level III - http://amzn.com/B004J4VUKM

Yes it does

Geez no help hahaha How about a good review from a few of you? KS http://www.amazon.com/System-Level-Baccarat-Approach-ebook/dp/B004IK8FS2/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=books&qid=1294798432&sr=8-5

Folks I am trying to get a Kindle edition for THE System ( Not SYSTEM 40). If you have anything that you would suggest that would make it easier for the new player please let me know. I don't have all the graphics done yet but looking for more suggestions. My thought are to use it as a feed book to get more member here for us. http://beatthecasino.com/blackjack/index.html user name: testuser Password: hrmkrg68TTT

Ellis is ill and people are *****ing about the sugar bowl. Simply call me with any question here is my cell. I get no less than 200 direct emails a day 717.525.3491

Folks Ellis can't make today at 12:15 but promised he will be able to make 8pm on Tuesday . For those who registered your registration carried over. Don't miss out on this free seminar online. ello , Please register again because your host, Keith Smith, changed the date and time for this online meeting. Topic: First test Meeting with Ellis & Keith Date: Tuesday, January 4, 2011 Time: 8:00 pm, Eastern Standard Time (New York, GMT-05:00) ------------------------------------------------------- To register again ------------------------------------------------------- 1. Go to https://beatthecasino.webex.com/beatthecasino/j.php?ED=145452832&RG=1&UID=1159394262&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D 2. Register for the meeting. 3. Check for confirmation email with instructions on how to join To view in other time zones or languages, please click the link: https://beatthecasino.webex.com/beatthecasino/j.php?ED=145452832&RG=1&UID=1159394262&ORT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D ------------------------------------------------------- For assistance ------------------------------------------------------- 1. Go to https://beatthecasino.webex.com/beatthecasino/mc 2. On the left navigation bar, click "Support". You can contact me at: keith@keithsmith.com 1-717-458-3174 Sign up for a free trial of WebEx http://www.webex.com/go/mcemfreetrial http://www.webex.com

---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Keith Smith <messenger@webex.com> Date: Wed, Dec 29, 2010 at 9:14 PM Subject: Meeting invitation: First test Meeting with Ellis & Keith Hello , Keith Smith invites you to attend this online meeting. Topic: First test Meeting with Ellis & Keith Date: Thursday, December 30, 2010 Time: 7:15 pm, Eastern Standard Time (New York, GMT-05:00) Meeting Number: 802 971 076 Meeting Password: hrmkrg68 ------------------------------------------------------- To join the online meeting (Now from mobile devices!) ------------------------------------------------------- 1. Go to https://beatthecasino.webex.com/beatthecasino/j.php?ED=145452832&UID=1159393397&PW=NM2ZhOTU2Njgw&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D 2. If requested, enter your name and email address. 3. If a password is required, enter the meeting password: hrmkrg68 4. Click "Join". To view in other time zones or languages, please click the link: https://beatthecasino.webex.com/beatthecasino/j.php?ED=145452832&UID=1159393397&PW=NM2ZhOTU2Njgw&ORT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D ------------------------------------------------------- To join the audio conference only ------------------------------------------------------- Call-in toll number (US/Canada): +1-408-600-3600 Access code:802 971 076 ------------------------------------------------------- For assistance ------------------------------------------------------- 1. Go to https://beatthecasino.webex.com/beatthecasino/mc 2. On the left navigation bar, click "Support". You can contact me at: keith@keithsmith.com To add this meeting to your calendar program (for example Microsoft Outlook), click this link: https://beatthecasino.webex.com/beatthecasino/j.php?ED=145452832&UID=1159393397&ICS=MI&LD=1&RD=2&ST=1&SHA2=sl5U6NeiCbatRGCcz28Nd3UG5c1AGlqTgOQW6Tdr7oY=&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D The playback of UCF (Universal Communications Format) rich media files requires appropriate players. To view this type of rich media files in the meeting, please check whether you have the players installed on your computer by going to https://beatthecasino.webex.com/beatthecasino/systemdiagnosis.php Sign up for a free trial of WebEx http://www.webex.com/go/mcemfreetrial http://www.webex.com CCP:+14086003600x802971076# IMPORTANT NOTICE: This WebEx service includes a feature that allows audio and any documents and other materials exchanged or viewed during the session to be recorded. By joining this session, you automatically consent to such recordings. If you do not consent to the recording, discuss your concerns with the meeting host prior to the start of the recording or do not join the session. Please note that any such recordings may be subject to discovery in the event of litigation. -- Keith Smith BeatTheCasino.com

Third Shoe

2nd Shoe at Hollywood last night

Hollywood shoe from last night

Here the xmas eve shoe I went out quick and played 1 shoe. I should have started with f3 like i said [ATTACH]2008[/ATTACH] KS

Sounds funny but I found it better to start every shoe that I play at Hollywood with f3 on play 2 since it seems to be biasing that way at the moment. I may grab a few xmas eve shoes to post.

Guys ellis is on a vigil at the hospital with his son. I am going to reschedule this for Sunday.

Make sure you have the installed software before joining it makes it easier if you do it before the test https://freetrial.webex.com/freetria...mdiagnosis.php

**** You can forward this email invitation to attendees **** Hello , Keith Smith invites you to attend this online meeting. Topic: Testing Web Ex For Baccarat Training Date: Thursday, December 16, 2010 Time: 8:00 pm, Eastern Standard Time (New York, GMT-05:00) Meeting Number: 736 586 168 Meeting Password: hrmkrg68 ------------------------------------------------------- To join the online meeting (Now from mobile devices!) ------------------------------------------------------- 1. Go to https://freetrial.webex.com/freetrial/j.php?ED=140749867&UID=0&PW=NM2MzMGQ2NzVl&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D 2. If requested, enter your name and email address. 3. If a password is required, enter the meeting password: hrmkrg68 4. Click "Join". To view in other time zones or languages, please click the link: https://freetrial.webex.com/freetrial/j.php?ED=140749867&UID=0&PW=NM2MzMGQ2NzVl&ORT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D ------------------------------------------------------- To join the audio conference only ------------------------------------------------------- Call-in toll number (US/Canada): 1-650-429-3300 Access code:736 586 168 ------------------------------------------------------- For assistance ------------------------------------------------------- 1. Go to https://freetrial.webex.com/freetrial/mc 2. On the left navigation bar, click "Support". You can contact me at: keith@keithsmith.com 1-7174583174 To add this meeting to your calendar program (for example Microsoft Outlook), click this link: https://freetrial.webex.com/freetrial/j.php?ED=140749867&UID=0&ICS=MI&LD=1&RD=2&ST=1&SHA2=DG19ypzxo8SNbmL/gMkMfkBhAck/1r1YTxmymZ53Gt0=&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D The playback of UCF (Universal Communications Format) rich media files requires appropriate players. To view this type of rich media files in the meeting, please check whether you have the players installed on your computer by going to https://freetrial.webex.com/freetrial/systemdiagnosis.php Sign up for a free trial of WebEx http://www.webex.com/go/mcemfreetrial http://www.webex.com CCP:+16504293300x736586168# IMPORTANT NOTICE: This WebEx service includes a feature that allows audio and any documents and other materials exchanged or viewed during the session to be recorded. By joining this session, you automatically consent to such recordings. If you do not consent to the recording, discuss your concerns with the meeting host prior to the start of the recording or do not join the session. Please note that any such recordings may be subject to discovery in the event of litigation.

Folks, I bought a Webex subscription so we can do online training. It has a Dial in toll free number or VOIP and you can share video, applications, documents, pictures or a whiteboard to draw on. I want to run a test this week. I am thinking on Thursday at 8:00pm, if you want an invite to try it please post your email address in this thread. I figured we could go over a shoe. BTW Ellis's son Mark is in the hospital that's why Ellis is a bit quiet for the moment. Keith