daytrader77459

Hello, MRV, and all BJ enthusiasts, I wanted to post here to alert to you and other BTC members, visitors, that playing high stakes BJ is a challenging endeavor. Fortunately for us all, we have Ellis and his tremendous experience base of winning daily BJ playing - to really learn to play BJ well and try to win daily/weekly. However, there are NO shortcuts to gambling (BJ, baccarat, poker). You must learn from the best players (Ellis), you must spend $$$ for educational instruction/manuals, and then more educational $$ thru losses and Lessons Learned in live BJ gaming. Just as important - you must have discipline - to FOCUS on only favorable table/game selection, AND, you must have the discipline to exit bad games. I have seen Ellis STOP play and change tables after only a few hands of BJ - when he is losing units of his bankroll. Are you capable of suffering a few losing hands - but then be comfortable and embrace exiting that shoe/table quickly? And then look for a high advantage player table/shoe again? Repeated endless # of times daily or weekly for as long as necessary? Are you disciplined enough to follow Rule #1 - which is AVOID BAD GAMES/TABLES? Just test yourself - have you read thru and studied and ABSORBED lessons from Zero Prox BJ, NBJ, WCB manuals? If I were to "test" you on fundamental skills tests from these manuals in private BJ "exams" - would you be able to PASS routinely? If not - then you should avoid playing high stakes BJ at this time. Instead, focus on study, reading, learning, testing, and rehearsing all elements of ZPC, NBJ, WCB. Test all of the Skill Levels of each manual - get 95% correct on "exams" - then can test with real $$$ using black chips or higher! Ellis is a pro - daily plays, daily ups/downs - we do not have his experience base, and we do not have even near 70% of his skills/decision-making biases and heuristics as a pro for BJ and Baccarat. We must develop and implant these learning pathways in our own cerebral cortex to allow us to make the best decisions on every play. This is what NBJ, WCB, helps to teach us to focus on every individual decision-making point of play in high level BJ. Can it be done? Yes - and BTC has members playing high stakes BJ on a consistent winning basis. I play BJ at high stakes and high performance level in both 2 and 6 deck games. But, it has taken me YEARS of preparation/study, training, analysis, debriefings, and live table plays! I still have to manage losing shoes/tables on a daily and weekly basis. I must always stay focused, alert, vigilant - to avoid bad games, avoid playing during bad emotional days, to exit quickly if losing! And - I STILL need to improve my BJ game - and YES - I am and MUST spend more time, $, energy, learning as much as possible from Ellis directly! How about other BTC members playing high stakes BJ consistently on a daily or weekly basis? Mad Dog? Big Vic? Keith? Aegis? What have been your playing challenges and lessons learned - to SHARE with the BJ wanna-be high stakes player? For ALL recreational BJ players and wanna-be High Stakes BJ players, I recommend you to passionately pursue, study, apply, all the BJ manuals here, and attend the high stakes BJ seminar either in Vegas or AC. Either way - you will at least get to observe the very best high performance BJ player. You can "test" your own NBJ/WCB level of expertise, you can ask play-by-play decision-making questions! But - YOU MUST PREPARE ahead of attending the High Stakes BJ seminar(s). Otherwise, its real value is going to be wasted/lost on your time, $, energy, travel. I repeat - and strongly recommend - be sure to read and learn and rehearse all of the various Skills Levels from the ZPC, NBJ, and WCB manuals. ORDER these if you don't already have it all! Give yourself the best opportunity to learn and attack BJ from these manuals - and then EXPLOIT the opportunity at the Seminar to have your weak areas CORRECTED and TESTED by Ellis directly. This is high productivity BJ learning at its best! By the way - if you attend the High Stakes BJ seminar(s) in Vegas or AC (No, make it a MUST - "when you attend" and not "if") - you will learn the CORRECT way to play/attack BJ shoe games. But - it will NOT turn you to become winning high stakes BJ player. This you must do on your own time, your own $$, your own emotional and psychological "capital" as a high stakes player. Ellis and other BTC players CANNOT teach nor translate/pass this on to you directly. We all must experience this journey in becoming better high stakes BJ players. However, I do know from personal experience that playing and networking with BTC members in BJ and bacc - will help to improve your game and PERHAPS - hopefully - may even accelerate your learning curve for playing BJ well on a consistent basis. In closing, I do look forward to the High Stakes BJ seminar(s) - to learn again directly from Ellis, to learn from other high stakes BJ players in BTC! And, hopefully to meet more BTC members in pursuit of learning and achieving high performance BJ skills. To this day, I still play almost daily - definitely at least weekly - both BJ and baccarat. And I have tons more to learn and improve upon! Always! :-) Regards, Daytrader77459

Hi, Success Ptc, I hope your system(s) will play out as well as your 60 million shoe simulations. Good luck with playing on mechanical simulated systems Success Ptc - unfortunately simulated mechanical bacc playing will NOT make you a winner. As I have posted in other threads previously, at the very least, please be certain that your overall gaming survival pack include at a minimum the following critical success factors: 1. Whatever betting spread you use, be sure you have at least 100 of the largest BIG BETs to minimize your risk of ruin in a near 50/50 game. 2. Be sure that losses in # of betting units per shoe is < # of units in WON in winning shoes. 3. Learn to implement a very aggressive analysis and debriefing routine for all of your shoes - both winning and losing shoes. 4. Learn to use a daily journal log book of your playing results, your emotions, your bankroll swings/volatility, etc. You must learn to play only during the most high-performance time of day (including your energy level, positive emotions, etc) to maximize your chances of winning. 5. Learn to be HIGHLY SELECTIVE to filter and "pretest" every shoe to fit your system(s). 6. Use NOR - a fluid NON-mechanical playing approach to baccarat. If - you do not have all elements above - then I can be reasonably certain that you will NOT succeed in profitability on a daily or weekly basis as a professional player! Notes about the NOR systems - you need to buy it, digest it, devour it, ask questions - then start the learning cycle over again! 1. For NOR - we do not even come close to requiring a 100 max Bet unit bankroll. Still - I advocate players to have substantial bankroll reserves. NOR does not even require betting more than 4 or 5 units! In fact, I never bet 3 units or more - UNLESS - I am very lucky and pressing on a highly winning baccarat shoe type. 2. Using NOR - my losing shoes hardly ever go past (-6) units. Most losing shoes are (-2) units or even positive shoes. The KEY is that I often look to exit and lock up wins if I lose 3 consecutive bets using NOR. This is a STRONG indicator that either the shoe is changing or I have selected the suboptimal NOR system for that shoe. On winning shoes, most profitable shoes are at least (+4) units or more. Plus - my winning targets are LOWER than NOR systems because I routinely DO NOT play thru every hand per shoe. However, my BTC colleagues that are excellent NOR players (Way2Fast, HawaiiAl, NormA) routinely achieve wins in the (+7) units or more per shoe - while never betting more than 3 units per shoe. 5. NOR teaches all players to be HIGHLY SELECTIVE and attack only STRONGLY BIASED shoe games! No exceptions. We do not want to engage in a pure 50/50 baccarat game. We want a highly biased, highly patterned shoe - and attack with the appropriate NOR technologies! Get out quickly if hit target profits and trailing exit stops! Then, recon for more HIGHLY BIASED shoes. REPEAT CYCLE! 6. NOR is not a mechanical static system - it adapts to shoe biases very rapidly! And, if the shoe turns out to be a "trapping" shoe and changes its biases repeatedly, NOR forces us to EXIT quickly and gracefully accept minimal damages to our bankroll. One thing you will learn from Ellis: Game selection is #1. Then Game management is #2 with the correct NOR system. Then bankroll management is #3 - NOR does NOT allow its players to BUST OUT if applied correctly and repeatedly. In closing - there is one more critical piece of recommendation - you must learn to identify the best players in baccarat - and then commit to study and play with these high performance professionals! It is VERY difficult to become a consistent winning player in baccarat and BJ. We have been lucky - we learn from Ellis and his NOR systems. If you are at all SERIOUS about winning frequently on a daily/weekly basis, do not be CHEAP and neglect NOR. The real players who WIN consistently - those pros I know personally - never hesitate seeking out and PAYING - for any bit of education and EDGE - to improve their gaming performance level. For example - seek out one of the NOR threads - follow Steve who is committed to teaching NOR correctly in detail. Then sit and play with actual high performance NOR players. This is how you learn - how you ABSORB the ups/downs/challenges and how you GRASP key LESSONS LEARNED in high performance gaming! You want evidence? Then seek out the many BTC baccarat players here that play very well the NOR systems at a high level. We do not just play to play - we play to WIN - we push our bet sizes UP to HIGH $$$ levels - not because of greed - but because our competitive high performance focus naturally "forces" us on this path! We enjoy the thrill of outperforming baccarat shoes left and right - and we welcome the Lessons Learned when engaged in those difficult baccarat shoes! This is the enjoyment of what Ellis is teaching thru NOR. Please - at the very least - DO NOT rely nor spend your hard-earned $$$ and then quickly go and "GAMBLE" it away on some mechanical simulated optimized "million shoe" baccarat system! Playing to WIN is very fluid - Ellis and BTC members and NOR teaches us to ADAPT and EXPLOIT what is there! Winning is about a dynamic, fluid approach, about a high performance high standards player, and about adequate bankroll. Fairly simple to define and identify - much more difficult to execute daily/weekly. Best of luck - and get into NOR! No excuses, no rationalizations, no delay! Good luck - and seek out good teachers! Daytrader77459 PS - disclosure - this post was unsolicited and I receive no comps from Ellis or Keith or BTC in any way. It's just that I enjoy greatly when I see other players LEARN and EXECUTE high performance gaming in BJ or baccarat! Thank you.

Hi, CarlosM, For new cards - do you play heads up using primarily Basic strategy (since probably less clumped)? Do you use neg progression or low/high advantage betting? Do you sit 3rd base? How long do you play for? By a certain profit target? Or in case of bad luck, by a certain stop loss? Thanks for the details! Daytrader77459

Hi, Ellis, BTC members, Well, a quick NOR trip report - quick because it happened fiinally to my playing NOR. As you recall, I don't play every hand of NOR - I try to select strongly biased NOR shoe types, and then begin play after several winning 1st or 2nd bets (virtual). This wknd, I played one day where I sat thru many weak shoes, but played in several F/SS shoes. I was able to lock up at least +20 units in day 1. However, day 2 disaster day came up. The sessions started with an abundance of OBL shoe types. However, these shoes were really what I call "trapping shoes". The modes kept changing frequently between modes 2, 3 - for BOTH repeats and also ZZZ modes. I tried to follow along and suffered some small bet losses. Then I tried to focus on mode 2 - and played progression on OTR. Again, no luck. After sitting, waiting, and trying to select key setups, I still ended the day 2 shoes at a horrible -20u loss. Now this amounts to giving back the day 1 profits - plus more (like my time, energy, mental capital, etc). However, in debriefing myself, I noted that I made several losing bets (at least 5 bad bets) that were outside of NOR OBL criteria. Probably because of frustrations, desperation, impatience, plus whatever other gremlins were leaning on me! In any case, ughhhhh!!! Self sabotage happened. Poor situational awareness of my own conditions and poor table conditions! In hindsight, it was still a losing day - but losses would have been more at -11 or -12 units without self sabotage. Perhaps also was the internal stress to fight back and "not give up the previous day's profits" mentality. But - it is impossible to fight bad luck by throwing more $$$ into the equation! Unfortunately I do not have the shoes to post - I had left the shoes on the table - and went to dinner. Then found out one of the table supervisors had thrown it all out - thinking I did not need/want the shoes anymore. I wish I could also "throw out" day 2's results and my own sub-par performance! :>) In closing, lessons learned: 1. Playing 2nd liners in super difficult OBL days would have been okay - not great - but still winning per day. O/R was negative, 1s low. Could have played progression but only on 2nd line bets. 2. I failed to follow my intuition and dropped situational awareness on day 2. 3. Key factor: I lost a couple of 3-bets early (only using 111 progression initially) - on OBL shoes with changing modes. This was a signal to exit the table or the casino for that day! Trapping shoe types = take a break, perhaps try next shift??? 4. There is an extremely fine and fragile line when impatience and disbelief and desperation can sneak into my game! 5. I must continue to monitor my intuition, energy level ,patience level, my 3 bets results, etc. to maintain peak situational awareness and adjust accordingly. 6. KEY RULE from Ellis: GET OUT OF LOSING GAMES QUICKLY! Lesson 6 learned! Probably will continue to revisit - and relearn Lesson 6 more times yet! :>) Human nature. I wish I could have performed better and given you a winning trip report. But, please - do not fall into the same quicksand of errors like I did on day 2 this wknd! I will continue to post more trip reports and details. Thank you. Regards, Daytrader77459

Hi Danicito, The Team BJ manual is simple to read, but also very complete. Bankroll info, playing tactics, much more. The details and examples are clear. Plus practice, u will quickly be able to play it correctly. Regards Daytrader77459

Hi, Danicito, From my purely very limited sample size of 10 sessions of Team BJ play (with deviations of couple of playing rules), I have found no difference so far playing w 6dk hand shuffled shoes. Remember, I have been playing on 1 hr sessions, and average of 4-5 shoes per 1 hr session. I've been focusing on two separate casinos and watched their shuffling procedures. Definitely different shuffles between the two casinos. However, the team BJ play results have been very close to each other. Both places have been positive. For now, also, I am not playing Team BJ on shoes that use machine shuffles of any sort. Again, perhaps all luck thus far - way too early to tell. Wait until I have 10,000 sessions under my belt - AND - plus details and records from another 10,000 BJ teams playing this way!!! Then we will really have a Team BTC network! That will be the day! :>) Regards, Daytrader77459

Hi, KR, Let me take your questions in order. 1. When I played my sessions, remember that my rules had some deviations from the Team BJ manual rules. I had one other non-team player but he did not last very long. He busted out quickly. My play was not impacted by other players. HOWEVER - if you follow the Team BJ rules, Ellis is correct when he says other players will definitely leave quickly - believing that Team BJ playing tactics are completely off-base!!! So limpers would not be an issue with Team BJ play. 2. I played by myself - 3 spots in total. Primarily played 6 dk hand-shuffled shoes. I played 1 session (1 hr) that was 6 dk with dual shuffle machines. Boy, losing session. Could not get dealer bust rate up even after 1 hr. I don't know if it is just bad luck, or had anything to do with the dual shoe shuffle machine. But in any case, went to another casino with hand shuffle, and won my losses back and more. I must defer to Ellis and his experience with Team BJ play to determine if dual shoe shuffle machines had any adverse impact on team profitability. 3. Yes - I had some early "recon info" from Ellis himself on reading the drafts of Team BJ manual. I already had some ideas about it, but the real shocker is a strategic key deviation of the rest of the positions' playing tactics. 4. Ok. I recommend that you buy the Team BJ manual - attend the Aug 25th seminar. Experience BJ and NOR players will be there to answer your detailed questions!!! Great learning opportunity. Hope to see you there. Regards, Daytrader77459

Hi, Danicito, I tried Team BJ play just a couple of days ago - and already I have several sessions under my belt. Ellis has been helping to answer my research questions on tactics in great detail. He is an excellent and patient teacher. Let me take your questions by the number: 1. I do think that Team BJ play is easier than NOR. From execution perspective, Team BJ play is fairly mechanical and consistent. The NOR baccarat approach is not a mechanical system. It is a compilation of systems designed to exploit sections of baccarat shoe biases. This takes some experience and also always require the NOR baccarat player to have focus and situational awareness as to what exploit may be developing right now in front of his/her eyes. There is some judgment and bias that comes into NOR. However, when coupled with 123 4 progressions and table/shoe selection criteria, we have been able to have high win rates. The Team BJ play approach is different in that there is really no key decision making except to follow the rules. The focus is to feed high cards to the dealer to increase the dealer break rate. My own play (however brief now after 9 sessions) has seen that it takes at least 2 shoes to begin to see some positive changes. Of course, I had some deviations of play. Ellis said it takes about 1 shoe to see changes begin to go against the dealer hands. Summary: Team BJ play is "easier" than NOR baccarat. 2. Can a high performance gamer achieve wins every day? Well, certainly Ellis did! For me, it is a question of semantics. If I had several rough sessions in baccarat or BJ - but able to get back most of the loss or break-even for the day, I consider that a WIN. Can a gamer hit a specific daily target like +5 units? or +50 units? or +500 units? Per day? Much more difficult here. Certainly setting a lower daily target is easier to reach. If you are playing for more than +15 units per day, then you must become an expert in table/shoe selection - for both BJ and baccarat!!! No getting around this - you must learn and develop the skill, situational awareness, to know "this is going to be a winning shoe" AND "I need to bail out of this shoe ASAP". I personally have not won every single day from a $$$ perspective. But my results are better and my winning trip sessions are higher % nowadays. Plus, I debrief in detail on all sessions - BJ and Baccarat - so in that manner, I am in fact "winning" as I continue to review and implement lessons learned!!! I hope this helps you gain some perspective - I enjoy playing both BJ (Team BJ and WCB) and NOR baccarat. One is not any better than the other - although complexities and bankroll variance and achievable targets may differ some. My opinion is: eat it all up and enjoy!!! Know both and its details, and know yourself as a gamer in detail - and you will be much farther ahead than most gamers!!! Regards, Daytrader77459

Hello, Ellis, BTC members, and new visitors, I have reviewed the final Team BJ manual from Ellis this morning. I know in detail how much time and effort he put into this project! And on top of it all, he also had to be dealing with detailed questions and reports from me ad infinitum!!! Ellis has tremendous patience and energy to put it together like this. My summary of the manual is this: NO ONE can decipher how to play Ellis team BJ play without the team manual. Second, all serious gamers should make every effort to attend the Aug 25th seminar: 1. This may be Ellis' last detailed seminar - and will include both Team BJ and NOR!!! 2. From a personal perspective, any manual CANNOT handle key questions on tactics and betting and risk mgmt. You must meet the man himself and others who have executed and played thru the vacillations of Team BJ play. I know a few former Team BJ members will also be there! The manual itself is relatively short but you must read, and re-read, several times over, to make certain you did not overlook or misinterpret some details (I did misread few items). The style of Team BJ play is very counter-intuitive and will open your eyes!!! I am sure quark711 can also confirm this, right? I know Ellis and Keith are working on a Private Forum for Team BJ play - and this is a must for detailed trip reports, detailed briefs, sharing network info on tables and "heat", etc. Ellis and Keith are # 1 when it comes to support and ongoing continuing education. I have all of the other BJ works like Zero Prox, NBJ, WCB. But, Team BJ is a more simple but highly focused strategy. Easier to learn and execute without errors after several practice sessions! Thank you Ellis again! Daytrader77459

Ellis, Please note the edited trip report in post #1. I have focused the edited report on the results of the play. I have also emailed you the full trip report in RTF format. Thank you for all of your time and help with my private questions and details!!! Daytrader77459

Hi, Ellis, BTC members, I have attached a PDF file that contains our first BJ Team Play results and debriefing details. It is rather long and I elected NOT to post it here in this thread - but instead to post it as an attachment to BTC members who may be interested in our results. Please feel free to add your comments and insights. There is still much to be learned here! And, I hope to hear additional Team BJ trip reports from other teams. This can be a "lean forward" intel network for our BTC members who enjoy playing BJ. Thanks to Ellis for your tireless efforts and comments and answers to my endless questions! Regards, Daytrader77459 BJ Team Play Results from 08.07.12 - Edited Version.pdf

Hi, Ellis, SXC, I have not played in Macau for many years. Mostly I play in Vegas by far - and in the major Strip places, the baccarat shoes come prepackaged and preshuffled and supposedly verified in terms of complete 8 decks. When scouting baccarat playing areas, I often see multiple computer screen displays showing the current shoes being played out. Many times, several tables will be showing similar shoe types - like ideal for S40, or OBL. Less often, occasional F/SS shoes. Having gone thru evolutionary and revolutionary learning processes, all the way back to Twister, etc., I have found that many of the tools and methods in BTC are quite valid and very playable. For example, Net Betting - either with 0 vs 00 start, or 11 start, etc., or S40/OBL/F starts. All work fine if you have the critical success factors in place: 1. Disciplined, quiet, well rested mindset and mental capital at the start of your playing day. 2. Sufficient bankroll to weather the "per shoe" volatility depending on your system(s) employed, and the progressions utilized. 3. An idea or bias as to which system is best for the "current and immediate" shoes you are seeing in your playing areas. 4. Having the discipline to EXIT quickly if you are not winning after 5-6 bets consecutively - probably choosing incorrect system. 5. Having the mental flexibility and confidence - to switch to alternative system(s) when things go badly. I personally do not like to switch systems mid-shoe, and prefer to EXIT myself at small losses if necessary. Then reassess. Ellis and senior members may have the experience depth and flexibility to change and adjust mid-shoe. However, for beginning students, I would recommend not to switch. Instead, you can sit out 10-15 hands if necessary, track several methods at once, and see which system is having the best "hit rate" with the 1st or 2nd bets. Then select to play out that method - and look to exit if the shoe begins to turn against you. Ellis had termed this the "overlay process" in earlier threads. Your question of NB vs NOR is a good one. From a learning/research basis, definitely try to learn and understand deeply BOTH. However, from a playing system with focus on high "per shoe" profitability, I still believe that the guidelines and selection/filter criteria described in depth in the NOR manual remains the easiest to understand deeply (thus allowing your belief system to gain confidence and trust in your own judgments and playing/betting decisions) and easiest to execute with few errors. And, of course, hopefully you can couple whichever system with the strongest betting progressions such as 112, 123, U1D2, etc. If you are serious about trying to play for higher unit stakes, you must believe and trust in whichever (NB or NOR) "vehicle" will get you to your destination. I remain committed to NOR and SAP but as a permanent student of gaming, I continue to learn and test NB, and other developments all the time. I play baccarat and BJ almost daily. But it is NOT my primary income source so technically I am NOT a professional full-time player, I guess. I only play when I have criteria (1) - (5) above solidly focused in my mindset. I play with a VERY SPECIFIC FOCUS - to execute my strategy well, and to exit profitably per shoe, and to have a high probability of % of winning shoes and winning days. My % winning shoes is not as high yet - as Ellis stated at 90% per shoe win rate. My % win rate per shoe remains at about 70%. However, my % daily win rate and % weekly win rate remains very high at 85%. I do not have any secrets to sell or teach. Only hard work, tons of patience and personal discipline, and deep focus on strategy/betting execution with zero errors. When I feel uncertain, when I feel "I can't give back too much of my profits" - these are good internal signals that I should close the day, or at least take a good minimum 1 hour break to regain my balance and reset for criteria (1) - (5) again. Fear of giving back profits is a HUGE gremlin of mine - and I try to benefit from this weakness as a signal to take a break so I can refresh and get aggressive and competitive again to extract profits from the shoes. As the saying goes, "scared money never wins", "scared money is lost money". In closing, just choose one - the power of the approach, coupled with a powerful betting progression, plus having sufficient mental discipline, trust, confidence is critical to your playing success. Do NOT allow yourself to undergo self sabotage. When shoes go badly, often it is NOT the system fault - it is the player's incorrect system selection or failure to correctly execute the system. Perform detailed note-taking after your playing sessions. Learn from your internal dialogue and internal emotions. Learn to "coach" yourself in the most positive and beneficial way possible! Research, ask questions, test your assumptions, be critical of your decisions and results! But, know that we all have to go thru these processes - there are no shortcuts to immediate mastery/gains! Playing well will bring in permanent rewards in terms of self confidence, patience, and discipline. The monetary rewards and profits will come accordingly later - after you have developed a rigorous high-standards professional profile as a player. Good luck and win lots there in Asia!!! Regards, Daytrader77459 PS - Don't hesitate and challenge assumptions/guidelines. In addition to Ellis, Keith, there are so many experienced players in BTC that can share all their battle scars, lessons learned, critical success factors. PSS - As a great side benefit of being in BTC, I have also enjoyed making friendships and playing with skilled players including Way2Fast, NormA, HawaiianAl. Hopefully you will also make such connections there in Asia. I would imagine most skilled players in Asia will focus in Macau, and Singapore, at this time. You should definitely try to communicate and meet and play together and develop a collective learning "trust".

Hi Way2Fast, That is a very good observation, question. Often, we had discussed how many F shoes also played into TBL well. I played into TBL on this first BB occurrence. After loss, then played F w M3 as per your thoughts. Either approach is fine, I think. Just hv to play consstent. You r also correct, not easy play consec hds. But fortunately had v good profit locked up,for wknd. Wait until u see the next F shoes, one late last nt, one just played now. Will post and discuss later. I look fwd to c u again soon hopefully. And maintain our high daily hit rate w SAP, NOR! Safe travels! Regards Daytrader77459

Hi LJ, U can always ask dealers, floor persons, when shift chgs occur. They r happy to help. I play best in late afternoon thru 1am time periods. Best if u know ur own peak performance waking hrs. Regards, Daytrader77459

BTC members, Here is the F/SS shoe debrief: 1. Hd 14 – started off using 112 (already ahead for the day in profits). 2. Thru Hd 23 – noticed that there were 2s but no 3s – so I maintained with F/SS. 3. Hds 27, 31, 36 – played U1D2 base 1 but mandatory 2 after a 1 bet. 4. Hd 39 – hit my first 3 consecutive losses – but played 121 after hitting +10. Note this is NOT typical play for me – Way2Fast and others that play with us can confirm that I hardly play entire shoes. Even this shoe is unusual for me to play consecutive hands/bets – however – I did not hit three consecutive losses until Hd 39. In closing, I have definitely been observing a much higher frequency of OBL shoes and these types of Stealth F2/F3 shoes where the is a lack of 5+s or more, and the O/R drift hardly goes extremely negative. SAP/NOR is strong enough to survive and profit for most of these shoe types. However, having specific F/SS selection and betting criteria helps to keep my mental capital "uncluttered" and "consistent/congruent" for long-term playing success. Please feel free to offer any constructive observations – more F/SS shoes upcoming. Regards, Daytrader77459

BTC members, Take a look at this shoe start that I played yesterday and compare it to my F/SS criteria. Shoe start: PP B PPPP B PPPP B Pls note that this start can easily be interpreted for playing also either TBL shoe type, or OBL (less likely S40). However, the lack of 2s, 3s, make for the OBL shoe type to be weaker. The two series of 4s really puts early “strain†on S40 (at least “strain†psychologically for me to use S40 in this scenario). Look at the shoe below and note that the 4s SAP count definitely puts it into F/SS. Plus, the P > B dominance of more than 2:1 argues for the F/SS approach. Again, lack of 5+s but this is more typical in recent months with preshuffled decks. Note: the O/R count is showing “drift†which may be typical in F/SS shoe types. Next post, I will put up the actual shoe play/bets that I did. Daytrader77459

Hello, Ellis, BTC Members, In my previous posts, I had stated that Way2Fast and I had been seeing at least 75% of all shoes across 2 major casinos being at least OBL type shoes during the playing hours of 11am to 1am primarily. I do not play the 3am – 11am shifts. However, over the past two days, I played at a 3rd casino in qualifying for a large tournament. Here, I ran into a couple of very specific shoe types that led me to review and refine further certain internal issues I had with F/Strong Side type shoes vs OBL shoes (when the F shoes did not contain any/many 5s or 5+s). I recognize F and OBL coupled with the U1D2 were very strong, and in most instances, both F and OBL would allow me to exit with winning profits. Still, for my own satisfaction, I wanted more specific criteria to distinguish when to play F vs OBL for the style of play/betting that I implement. So below, I hope to share with our BTC members my biased F criteria By the way – I hope you all will indulge me for some fun metaphor. I have seen and been in awe of the performance capabilities of the new Stealth F22 Raptor fighter jet in the USAF. Likewise, I remain impressed with the performance capabilities of SAP/NOR using U1D2. For this specific thread discussion – I hope Ellis won’t mind if I term it the Stealth F2/F3 “Ellis†Strong Side criteria! So when do I decide to implement F/SS vs OBL? My past “image†for the F/SS shoe was long runs w 5+s, strongly negative O/R counts, and dominance of either P or B. However, this “image†has been made obsolete with the appearance of preshuffled boxed 8-deck shoes. Very rarely now do we see shoes with one or more long streaks of 6+s. Here are my criteria for considering playing the Stealth F2/F3 approach: 1. Strong Side dominance of P or B. How strong? For my own use, I like to see at least a 2:1 advantage to the Strong Side. 2. The SAP count showing a strong advantage in the 4+s column, at least 4s or more occurring twice very close to each other. 3. Abundance of sporadic 1s – and even sporadic 2s on the weak side is ok. 4. The O/R count metric is more difficult – in F shoe types, it can run from negative to positive and back to negative. So I have given the O/R more leeway for F shoes but instead focus on (2, 3) above. Briefly summarized below are my basic playing and betting preferences: 5. Play 111 until at least to +2 and then switch to 112 until to +4 or +5 and then remain with 123. I use U1D2 primarily. 6. For protective stop loss, exit at (-8) from the extreme swing equity high. 7. For profit lock, after hitting +10, play very tight – either 111 or 121 – and play to 3 consec losses. If I am leaving the casino soon, I frequently also exit after the 1st loss after hitting a lucky shoe of +10. 8. Bet primarily with M3 as it is very strong coupled with U1D2. 9. For OTR after M3, I bet 1x. Then if OTR continues, I remain OTR until 1st loss. I may bet 121212 for OTR runs if I am at least +6 for that shoe. I know there are probably some criteria I have missed – but for now, I hope BTC members can follow along my F/SS approach. I will soon post a shoe start for your review/input. Regards, Daytrader77459

Hi Ellis, When will the BJ Team Play manual be ready? Can paid attendees get manual earlier than Aug 25th so we can study it? Try it? And develop good play execution questions which may be helpful for seminar attendees? Thx. Dayttader77459

Hi, Ellis, Wow! Thank you for the detailed report. Your unique team play approach seminar will definitely be worth study and attendance. I look forward to it. Regards, Daytrader77459

Addendum to last post: I also observed that because of the strong OBL biases this past wknd, even on shoes that started off strongly S40 or having 4s or 5s, quickly "settled" into 2s and 3s and into the OBL biases. Hence I could afford to wait for these 2s, 3s, and then begin looking for my tactical exploits. On my winning shoes, most were in the +1 to +3 per shoe (over less than 35 hds usually). My best shoes averaged in the +5 but this only happened in about 5% of shoes played. BTW - if I hit +4 or more, I will exit the shoe on the 1st loss. I know this probably reduces my win rate and profitability. However, it fits well with my very tight risk mgmt style of playing. Final tally - won +65 units playing short shoe segments, putting in long hrs of waiting/watching for entry setups, over 3 days. Is +65 units worth the time and energy and stress? Who really knows. But, our unit size is strong enough to make it worth our time. And, we did not consider it as "stress" - but as fun as a "random" game can be played! :>) Nobody said gambling was "easy" - but it was fun to "stalk and hunt" for the big game! Wouldn't you agree, Way2Fast? Regards, Daytrader77459

Hello, Ellis, Keith, BTC colleagues, and also, Way2Fast, I just wanted to briefly update you on my never-ending journey of learning to exploit with SAP, NOR. I had the very nice fortune of having met and played and discussed and debriefed on our plays this past weekend with Way2Fast in Vegas. Note: sorry, a bit long post trying to highlight my thoughts, observations, details, stats. Here is my trip summary. Background review: 1. I am not an aggressive gambler - perhaps my weakness is too tight. I use SAP, NOR - but do not play every hand with NOR. I use the SAP and O/R count heavily on all plays. 2. Bet/risk mgmt - I always start with a 111 progression. If unlucky, protective stop loss of (-8) forces me off table/shoe. If I get lucky to +2, I switch to a 112 progression. If lucky to +4 or +5, I switch to 123. Unfortunately, I have not gotten to 234 or 345 - because of the nature of my playing SAP/NOR, I sit out many hds (more below). Thus, rarely get so lucky to be up +6 to +8 quickly to transition to 234. Most bad shoes I am out at (-5) or (-6) and try to get back to even in 1-2 shoes quickly. 3. Table observations - everywhere we played, the shoes are preshuffled and wrapped in 8-deck packets. Very hard to qualify precise filters. However, I observe all tables in the room, and often see that most are OBL shoe types. Hence my preference is for OBL starts when I see this type of room-based biases. 4. Shoe starts - I rarely start without seeing at least 4 events go by (usually at least 12-15 hds played out). I prefer to enter mid shoe late into the 1st column or start of 2nd column where I can determine which NOR system is best. 5. Alternative table selection filter - NOT a part of NOR system - but fun based, non-science based filter. If the shoe type is not able to be determined by my SAP, O/R counts quickly in 8-10 seconds - I automatically assume either OBL or unplayable shoe. In addition, if players are quiet, upset, sad, losing --> there is a good likelihood I have found a strong OBL shoe game. So what happened this wknd? My strategies included: 6. I do not like to play OBL "jumps" if O/R count is negative. So I play lots of OBL 2nd liners. 7. I also like to stick with a Mode count - from the start instead of flipping between M2, M3. Many times the switching proved worse. I have found that M3 with 111 or 112 or 123 is very strong! 8. I also attack ZZZ and ZZZZ off a good OBL shoe type by betting on a repeat to occur - especially if O/R is negative. Results: 9. Played 3 consec days and nights - looooonnnnngggg hrs with a strong group of bettors. At least played 10-12 hrs each time - but mostly standing and avoiding most hds except above strategies. Way2Fast can confirm our tables were playing for very long hrs! :>) 10. Worst shoe (-5). Every losing shoe - next shoe able to recoup lost units. Then restart fresh. 11. From 3 days/nights - only saw 1 strong F type shoe! 85% of all shoes were OBL biased. Even S40 ZZZZ runs were short - and if O/R count was positive - still had 2s and 3s developing so OBL would equal or outperform S40. 12. Most shoe wins were in the +4 to +5 level. Shoe duration often less than 35 hds exposure before hitting +4 or (-4). 13. Win rate 95% of all shoes played. Learning points: 14. Ellis has repeated many times, and correctly highlighted, about the torque and power of the 112, 123, 234, 345, progressions. I am not to the 234, 345, level - because I do not play many hds/shoe. But, these progressions coupled with SAP, O/R, NOR selection filters - definitely have a high survivability rate. And, also give a strong chance of profitability! 15. Having the ability to wait, apply selection filters, explore for table bias - all much "softer" skills - but still applicable. Way2Fast and I were able to identify and exploit OBL shoes consistently. 16. Not pressing my bets - staying at 111 - if not having good luck - is critical for having the bankroll and mental/emotional capital to attack good areas of good shoes! Allowed us to get back to even quickly! Of course - always need a good degree of good luck - but I think Ellis' NOR, SAP, O/R systems and betting progressions, clearly helped me to create my own "good luck" more frequently than other players. I don't think I will evolve to be able to play every hand that NOR systems can be performed. So I will accept less winning units per shoe, but also know that my drawdown and negative equity exposures will also be lessened. In closing, SAP, NOR, O/R, continues to perform well this wknd despite preshuffled boxed 8-deck shoes. I enjoyed having the time to play, review, debrief, with Way2Fast! Also, thank you Ellis for your ongoing efforts and tireless energy to make us better players! Regards, Daytrader77459

Hi, Ellis, BTC players, I hope you can indulge me with my observations of this net betting research recently on BTC. I've been reading and researching the entire NB dialogue including the PvB, OvR, OvT. Plus the various start loops of 0, 00, 0L0. Plus the dialogue on handling sporadic 1's, and of course, the variations on the delayed or no bet hds and the proposed re-start bet triggers. I must admit after all of the studying, I think it is important to highlight to new members and players - that the NOR approach is still one of the best balanced approach to winning baccarat. Within the NOR approach, Ellis had incorporated the various 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, 4+s, events into the system. He has elaborated in detail which shoe types match best to the NOR systems. And of course, the nemesis patterns for the NOR systems. In addition for new players, the NOR betting scheme is relatively modest - can be started with 111, or 112 - and then ramp up quickly to 123 or better if the shoe is "paying out" using the NOR systems. Finally, NOR also teaches the important concepts of locking in profits via the dozens, or hitting max highs 2-3x. And most often, losing shoes are only at (-8 units). In reviewing the variations and questions related to the net betting systems, it reminds me of the Twister, Anti-Twister, U2hi, U3hi, etc. All are excellent methods, BUT - every system and betting scheme will LOSE to some nemesis patterns. To spend time optimizing, and sub-optimizing, on these variations may not prove to be profitable in the long run for the high performance baccarat player. When a few shoes lose, and the restart, or no bet, or bet progressions, or whatever, are altered in light of a few losing tough shoes, the "new" net betting systems/triggers will again fail to something else. In addition to the inherent flaws of microscopic suboptimized "rules and betting schemes" based off a few tough shoes, there is another problem for BTC players in terms of complexity and "enjoyability" of playing baccarat at a high level. When one changes starts like 0 vs 00 vs 11 vs 0L0, or the bets 12 34 56 are altered - and delayed and no bet areas are included - these can often overwhelm the players and take the enjoyment out of the baccarat playing. Handling sporadic 1s, or excess 1s or long runs, etc. Well, the facts are that many shoes will have areas of heavy chops vs heavy streaks vs concentrated areas of 2s and 3s. That is the nature of random chaos of events. Especially given the high numbers of casinos now using preshuffled boxed 8 decks in midi bacc tables and big bacc tables. The beauty of the NOR systems is that these are self-adjusting. Within the rule base are "adjustment plays" like the OTR plays plus the "adjustment betting" such as upgrading from 112 to 123 to 234 quickly. NOR has been found to handle virtually all shoe types. Face it - most players get killed with OTB4L type shoes where the modes often change from M2 to M3 and vice versa (especially if modes are changing rapidly on both runs and chops!). In these shoe types, the student player can exit asap at a small loss. Or the player can just pick one mode type and play thru where M3 plus 1 OTR can often recoup from severe OTB4L "bad" shoes. My point is that I hope the net betting threads do not go off too severely on trying to microscopically optimize and reverse engineer from only a few shoes that have been backtested. Baccarat is a dynamic game, and volatility of the bankroll can easily waver anywhere from (-8) to (+8) in any given shoe. Ellis already recently detailed the key critical success factors for high level baccarat playing (also often repeated by Kiddo): 1. Have sufficient bankroll and multiple buy-ins. And must be wiling to be able to afford to lose bankroll. 2. Have sufficient mental and emotional capital - 100% confidence in NOR or net bet approaches. 3. Have sufficient rest/relaxation in between playing sessions.l 4. Identify table biases - if any. More difficult nowadays given pre-shuffled boxed decks in midi and big bacc tables. I am an advocate for ongoing systems research, backtests, etc. But - I believe the NOR systems have a high robust "survivability" factor. And these are much easier to teach, share, and debrief - amongst players. I hope there is no offense to net bettors here in BTC. But it is important to find the most simple, robust, low-betting systems for successful baccarat playing. Aside from selective SAP plays, I believe NOR is well balanced and easy to learn and implement. NOR can make baccarat gaming fun, relaxing. Plus, often, 2 of the 3 NOR systems are robust enough to lead to profitable shoes - so the student player does not have to precisely choose only 1 correct NOR system. Ellis - thank you for your ongoing contributions and ideas for SAP, NOR, net betting. All excellent. But please - do not forget to focus on "playability and enjoyability" for the sake of the baccarat games. And - BTC members - do not forget - please have fun and play in a relaxed mind set, have adequate bankroll, and confidence in your ability to follow whichever systems you select. Let the shoe type determine your system - and lead you to profitability. Thank you for letting me share my observations! Regards, Daytrader77459

Hello, Echo, Nice job posting and trying out NOR for the first time! Congrats! Just a couple of things that may help you stay on the fast track of your learning curve: 1. I prefer to write out what NOR system I am seeing - and starting with. 2. Then I write out my betting scheme - usually begin 111 or 112. Then can escalate to 123, 234, 345 - if the shoe is giving out profits. 3. I also try to write in the columns difficult areas of the shoe vs that specific NOR system. 4. Finally I categorize the shoe as one of the NOR systems. I am a bit compulsive with recordkeeping and tracking bankroll equity - so I also organize my shoes on the basis of best NOR system, max negative drawdown to the bankroll from 0 unit (or maximum adverse excursion), max negative drawdown from my max profit in that shoe (or max drawdown). I usually want to get a good feel of what is my bankroll equity per shoe. I also focus on the first 8-9 plays I enter from - what is MC and LC as per the SAP format. Specifically I look for at least consistent MC and consistent LC - for 8 consecutive hands - before I make any plays. I try to make certain the shoe is as "stable" as recently possible immediately prior to my first bets. As Ellis has said repeatedly, a shoe that is not positive (or not stable - drifts from one NOR system to another - or drifts in LC and MC) for my bankroll after my first 20 plays is usually not a good shoe - and I can look to exit that shoe. Then I study and annotate and categorize that shoe for lessons learned. Good luck with your NOR plays. We all enjoy you sharing with us - helps our own learning curve get better! Regards, Daytrader77459

Hi way2fast, Sounds good. Hope catch u all at Aria at least some shoes. Thank u. Daytrader77459

Hawaiinal, Jerry, Which casinos? Aria? May be in Vegas soon. Thank u. Daytrader77459