ECD
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Posts posted by ECD
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19 minutes ago, avion said:
FYI sonics.....SBI DOES spit out one decision at a time.
Also, there is no additional "purchase" of SBI -- it's available to all premium members. So you say you were a member, yet never participated in anything and never even saw/used SBI? If you really were a member, why did you bother?
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1 hour ago, canuck50 said:
Hello. I am just trying to understand why the Big Bead shows results for many one or two shoes in each grouping, and nothing for the majority of the rest? Am I doing something incorrectly? Thank you.
I only use the "show one hand at a time" function and it works a treat (and I am the most non Geeky person on the Forum) Not sure what you are doing wrong but I suggest that you ask specific questions on Stat Bacc on the Private Forum or PM Keith.
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You need to post them in the “private forum”.
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1 hour ago, Hellboy said:
In fact I think way2fast commented that his game improved markedly after playing MDB so long just through the subconscious recognition of these frequency of events.
100% correct @Hellboy. My MDB rules can be great training for a player's baccarat mind. I'm happy to discus this further on the forum if anyone is interested, but given the nasty behavior and lies spread by some on other forums, I won't be saying much here.
See everyone in Vegas tonight.
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1's win 87% of the time?
Holy S40 Batman!!!
Just play opposites and see how that 87% holds.
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2 hours ago, Keith Smith said:
No I bought them
you gotta be kidding!
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See...that wasn't so hard...Paragraphs are "The Boss"...LOL
Nah...Your post wasn't long...just wait until you see one of Jimmy's "War and Peace" efforts. I barely tolerate Jimmy because his posts are the only sure-fire cure for my insomnia.
You may have guessed by now that we don't take ourselves too seriously here except when talking Baccarat and Baccarat scammers.
Welcome to BTC...and one quick word of advice should you be contacted by "Whispering Mike Sullivan" to join him in one of his playing sessions...I'll give you the tip...Industrial strength earmuffs are the go.
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Memo to self: If Jimmy Bacc ever writes a Novel...Do not attempt to read. The likelihood of me living long enough to finish it is right up there with the likelihood of Ellis playing $5K chips.
Looking on the bright side...At least you use paragraphs. I should be thankful for small mercies.
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On 21/02/2018 at 2:23 PM, Phelps83 said:
First and foremost this is my first post in the forums. Myself and a friend have been working on beating baccarat for about a year (we did take a break for quite a while over last summer so honestly we have only been at it at the tables for 5 or 6 months). So lets start from the beginning, when it comes to casino games we had mainly been poker players. Then about 5 years ago we finally had casinos approved in our state . We remained poker players for a while but both of us worked jobs and did not rely on poker as a main source of poker. I think we both had burned our selves out at poker after years of playing and eventually stated to play pit games(craps, BJ ext...). Obviously we were both losers at the games overall. The one day he had mentioned playing baccarat, i had never played it before and did not know how the game worked, all i remember from the first session was how i thought it was stupid that when i bet the banker i would literally get paid with quarters(because of the 5 percent commission). So he originally brought the idea of what if we played baccarat and just bet the drop, we use the terms drop and chop, i believe it is referred to on here as 1's and 2's. So a chop would be 1, drop would be 2. I had played a couple times and started winning right away, my unit size was 25 and i was averaging 5 or 6 unit wins each session. I proceeded to win 15 out of my first 16 sessions, and the one loss was only a couple units. I have been around long enough to know that you just do go on win streaks like that at the casino, so i felt like we were really on to something. Also i pretty much flat betting, if i did press it was after a win not a loss. During that run i was on my friend was also experiencing similar results. Then i made the mistake of playing on a day where i did not feel very good and as i said, i work full time so you can understand i was burning the candle at both ends, but i wanted to know if this was a legit income source. So anyway i went on a day that i should not have and had a big loss, i got stubborn and stayed way to long, then went back a day or two later and had a similar loss. That's where the long break came in because i was discouraged. So we have been back at it for a couple months now, i tested a few different strategy's with terrible results, then i finally went back to the strategy we first used because it was working and i am back on an upswing, i do not know why i tried messing with a strategy that worked. That being said it is not a perfect strategy. Relying solely on drops or twos can get you in trouble at times. So lately we have both been using the drop as our guideline but we follow the shoe a bit more now. The question we are really asking ourselves is what is an acceptable loss and how many units should the average win be. I think the win goal should be around 3 to 6 units, the problem is one big loss could erase several wins. Also, lately if i get up 3 units real quick, like winning the first 3 hands, i play till i lose one hand then leave. So if i lose the next hand i leave up two units. The reason i do that is too many times i got up a few units right away, kept playing and found myself going on a big downswing and stuck there for hours, i am sure we all know that feeling. Also, do you need to stay and go for big wins sometimes to offset potential big losses. I feel like this is where the game is won and lost, you can create any strat you want but your bet is essentially always gonna be 50/50, so we have to work on what we can actually control. Anyway, any thoughts would be appreciated and i will keep everyone updated with our progress.
Jimmie Bacc...When did you change your "Username"?
Paragraphs...Paragraphs...Old people need "PARAGRAPHS"...
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Each hand is usually at least 4 cards, and in swine cases 5, or even 6. But for arguments sake let’s use 4. 50 cards divided by 4 is only 12 hands. I don’t see how you can get a feel for the shoe so quickly. You are likely to have a better hit rate if you gain some history before betting.
Please explain using $200+ to determine hands at table. I don’t understand what you mean.
I kind of agree with not staying on the straight line run until the end of the streak, but again, history on THAT side may tell you something of what that side is doing. Finally, if you’re already up in the shoe, and you’ve made at least 1 unit on the run, then yes it’s ok to ride it out till the end.However in the beginning of a shoe, I like to bank a few units and get ahead before taking more risk than necessary.
CT70
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23 minutes ago, varmenti said:
1) 50 cards (average 20 hands)
2) Betting every hand from the start but.... there will be a time when you will see a "50/50" in many of the shoes... I avoid betting those ones.
3) In single play, I've been using the $200+ to determine hands played at each table.
4) (Never look back when walking away from a table streak) I used to stay till the end of a long streak and although I would make an extra $1000-$1500 at those tables, I find in the long run it's better to make $200/table and walking away.
1) 50 cards (average 20 hands)...What game are you playing because it sure ain't Baccarat...Leastwise not any Baccarat Shoe that I've ever seen.
Minimum of 4 cards per hand...50 cards divided by 4 = 12 Hands max and most likely less.
If you are betting every hand from the start...you are playing a "Guessing Game"
I make my living playing Baccarat...It is my sole source of income and I figure that I know a little about the game. As such...I have no wish to continue this conversation or I am likely to say something that I shouldn't.
It is better that we agree to disagree...Everyone is entitled to an opinion
Memo to Keith: Those "Anger Management" classes that you recommended are working a real treat...Leastwise when I'm not drinking...
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2 minutes ago, varmenti said:
We are talking a full 8 deck shoe here... I've yet to hear anything positive coming from gamblers making progress on the game from playing a full shoe. In the 25+ years of playing Baccarat I still think it's a "Bad bet" Hey sorry for coming on so strong with my questions but just sharing some experience. I find that the many strategies posted on these forums, some are awesome and completely do'able but "utilizing only the first 50 cards of every shoe.
1Firstly...Are you talking 50 cards or 50 Hands?...It is kinda important.
I'm still not sure if you are talking about betting every hand (even if only to the first 50 cards) or opting out of the shoe after 11 or 12 hands which is roughly 50 cards but still betting every hand. Most shoes require 10 or 12 hands just to see evidence of "History"... anyone who thinks they don't need previous history to win at Baccarat is simply playing guessing games.
BTW: I often play the whole shoe but mostly making fewer than 50% of available bets...I let the shoe and the state of my session Bankroll decide whether to continue to the end. Most shoes have at least one sweet spot and often it doesn't materialise until near the end of the shoe.
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13 minutes ago, varmenti said:
Question? Why would anyone ever even think about wanting to play a full shoe at a baccarat table?
this has got to be one of the worst things anyone could ever do at a baccarat table.
I'm not sure what you are talking about...Do you mean that "betting every hand of the shoe is a bad thing" which pretty much anyone with half a brain would agree? or do you mean "playing the entire shoe while making selective bets" is a bad thing?..or do you mean "uploading entire shoes to Strategic Baccarat" is a bad thing?
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On 25/02/2018 at 7:46 AM, JimmyBaccarat said:
Keith,
I agree with what CT is saying here about auto-populating the casino name and date when entering shoes with the last one entered. At first I was entering only 8-10 shoes at a time and didn't mind selecting them each time. Now I am entering them 30 or 40 at a time. Having them auto-populate would make entering easier.
Thanks,
Jim
Welcome back you obnoxious little shit...I was starting to worry.
Hope you are having increasing success at the tables.
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While you're at it, can you also look at why the bottom part of the casino list drop down menu in SB is not sorting and when I add a casino, it does not automatically appear in the list the next time I use it.
Also, when entering a shoe, after the 1st shoe is uploaded, can we have the date default to the same day so we don't have to keep entering it again and again? For the most part, players are playing multiple shoes in the same casino and on the same day, so the date and casino name should stay the same after entering the first shoe, UNLESS the next shoe is from a different casino or a different date.
Thanks
CT70
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Keith,
Is there a feature on SB that displays what were the last shoes uploaded and how many shoes are currently in the system?
CT70
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I received this in my inbox and thought it was worth further investgation...
5 THINGS PRO TRADERS DO
There are 5 things Pro Traders do that novice traders don't, but the good news is you can learn to apply these 5 things to your investing.
Following are the 5 things Pro Traders do.
1. Win big & Lose small.
Pro traders don't concern themselves with how many times they win or how many times they lose. Pro traders focus on ensuring when they do win they win bigger on average than they lose. If an average winning trade is a $5000 profit they will ensure the average losing trade is half this or even less. They will aim to average 1:2 or better with their risk-reward. As an example, if they lose $1000 on the losing trades they will average $2000 or better on the winning trades. This ensures they don't need to be correct even 50% of the time to make money. If they take 20 trades in a month and only achieve a 40% success rate they will still comfortably make money. 20 trades at a 40% success rate still makes them money. They would only have 8 winning trades that total $16,000 ($2000 * 8). They will have 12 losing trades that totals $12,000 ($1000 * 12). This equals a profit of $4000 only being correct 40% of the time.
I operate with a -2 STOP LOSS and Hit Rate of over 70% and a Shoe WIN rate of over 90% so I guess that I've got this covered
2. Ride the coattails of investment banks and hedge funds... Follow the Shoe?
Pro traders understand how investment banks and hedge funds invest money and when they are likely going to price in their expectation of a future economic or fundamental events. Having this knowledge allows the Pro Trader to enter trades that have the potential to trend big and these trends that are backed by investment banks and hedge funds allow them to win big on their winning trades. If you want to learn how investment banks and hedge funds invest their money then surround yourself and learn from traders who know. BTC? = Professional and top class players that make money at the Casino and not from selling systems with unverifiable claims of huge wins in combination with laughable "War Stories".
3. Trade with a fundamental and technical view.
Pro traders will generally use a combination of a technical analysis trading system and their knowledge of the core fundamentals of the market they are trading before they will enter a trade. For example, if their technical trading system is showing signs of providing them with a buy signal they will generally always ensure the fundamentals are also supporting the trade.... Much like detecting a Bias in the shoe and looking for a confirming signal...ie Pattern Recognition...MC and LC events etc... As an example, currency values are determined by interest rates and if a Pro Trader reads the Bank of England are looking to raise the official interest rate ( a fundamental buy signal) and their technical set up is also suggesting a buy signal this would be a combination of a potential big winning trade with a fundamental and technical view.
4. Think counter-intuitively to the herd. Given that the vast majority of Bacc Players lose consistently it makes no sense to be guided by their decisions
When a market is at its most fearful, when everyone else is selling the Pro Trader is using looking buy something of value. They won't be buying just any market they will be taking a position in a market, on a stock or currency that may be out of favour with the market as investors panic but overwhelmingly the position they are about to take is backed by core fundamentals that will see the price recover. They love to buy value propositions in oversold markets and to understand how to pick value propositions in oversold markets requires you to learn about the key fundamentals of the market you are trading...Not Mechanical decisions that require greater risk in the hope that you will eventually get it right.
5. Remain clear, calm and decisive.
Pro traders are human and emotion does play a part in their trading, but they don't let emotion dictate how they enter and exit the market like a novice trader does...Not so sure that I agree with this...depends on your personality. I am risk adverse and recognise that my decisions can be affected if I lose a few shoes first up (YEAH...it can happen...LOL) so I walk away and live to fight another day. Pro Traders have three things they are focusing on.
1. They are looking for their edge, the signal of when to enter...Wait for a discernable Bias NOT H2...LOL
2. They will have a specific risk management strategy for each trade they enter to ensure they are risking a lot less than they are looking to make... ABSOFRIGGINGLUTELY ...NEVER increase your BET/TRADE to make up for previous losses...SET your STOP LOSS and never exceed it...and NEVER EVER make what you recognise is a BAD bet because a stupid frigging mechanical Progression says that you must
3. They focus on executing their edge and risk management without errors every time they trade and they do not get transfixed on how many times in a row their system is winning or losing...Norm A (The best of the best) used to state that he would rather miss out on 10 winning bets than make a losing bet that he shouldn't have made...
For a Pro Trader making money is simply a numbers game and what defines them is their ability to apply their edge, manage risk, and replicate the first two steps again and again. Pro traders understand their trading success is a numbers game, win more than they lose on average, don't allow emotion to dictate how they enter and exit, remain steadfastly disciplined in the three steps and meaningful profits are virtually assured year after year.There is another similarity between Baccarat and Day Trading...Snake Oil Salesmen abound...promising the world for little effort. Sorry to inform... it's not that easy...but nothing worthwhile ever is.
Oz
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5 hours ago, cptcomp said:
A $25 BETTER can do 3-4 5 $30-40 50. I do that a lot, negative and positive progression.
Which part of "The 3 4 5 prog is not much better than Flat Betting" didn't you understand? That's what makes it so safe and to call it an "Aggressive Exploit Progression" is beyond stupid.
Sure a $25 Bettor can bet a $30-$40-$50 prog if he bases at $30...but no way is anyone with even half a brain going to base at $25 for several plays and then treble their base bet to $75 as Ellis suggests...just as a $25 Flat Bettor won't suddenly switch to basing at $75...
Do try to keep up...
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Count me in Keith...Oh wait...I don't have a choice...
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I honestly can't be bothered replying to anyone who thinks that Random Generated Shoes are the same as Casino Shoes. The top players know different which is why they are Top Players.
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55 minutes ago, ozscouser1 said:
I wonder if any of his disciples actually wonder at his opinion of their lack of intellect when he says "Hey... Look at me...I can make 20 units in a shoe that a Flat Bettor makes 5 or 6" not mentioning that he is comparing to a Base unit of 1...
The problem is if you question his statement, or gently try to correct the meaning to be in line with the facts, or even just offer an alternative view, then your post is removed and you will likely be banned from the forum with no refund. It has been done to many of us. The absolute stupidity of @DeanJ who runs the forum knows no bounds. If he actually kept semi-intelligent players around, it would be so easy to increase membership. Instead, he has to beg for membership -- went from bragging a couple months ago about charging $3,000 for all this great stuff to begging for members at $25 month. Still no takers even at that. While they remain quiet, I would say everyone is on to the bullshit and not willing to give Dean their money.
I have to laugh out loud every time CFC brags about "teaching" three millionaire players while not a single one of those three made their success playing what CFC teaches, and none of them are even allowed on the forum to help other players which would help Dean grow membership. You can't fix stupid.
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42 minutes ago, brad01 said:
as u said oz and ct the myth of it all is not how safe the 345 is but the jump u have to make from a base bet to get on it.
as ct said a $25 player winning say 4 or 5 bets is up $100 and feels confident so decides to employ a 345
their initial bet is $75 to get on the 345 progression and everyone knows it's when u raise your bets you are at the most risk.
if they lost that bet that's wiped out more than half of their winnings in what was a good session.
thats psychologically pretty damn hard to deal
As I see it...the 3 4 5 is the least of several evils and for those who insist on playing a NP ...probably the least damaging if it all turns to shit but it certainly is not by any stretch of the imagination (except in Ellis's World) an "Exploit" or an "Aggressive" Progression. As I said...not much difference to just Flat Betting. The best chance of the 3 4 5 working is if you have a record of consistently high Hit Rates...are selective in your bets and you use 3 as your Base unit from the get-go.
Very few are going to treble their base bet after a few hands as stipulated by Ellis. I wonder if any of his disciples actually wonder at his opinion of their lack of intellect when he says "Hey... Look at me...I can make 20 units in a shoe that a Flat Bettor makes 5 or 6" not mentioning that he is comparing to a Base unit of 1...
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1 minute ago, CT70 said:
Not to mention the $25 flat bettor is NOT going to raise his/her bets to $75, 100, and 125 just for the sake of playing a 3,4,5 prog. It's just NOT going to happen.
You can see that...I can see that...anyone with half a frigging brain can see that but a 160 IQ supreme intellect can't...Go figure...
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Not to mention the $25 flat bettor is NOT going to raise his/her bets to $75, 100, and 125 just for the sake of playing a 3,4,5 prog. It's just NOT going to happen.
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Really angry...
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
I think the message being conveyed is that the idiot running the CFC forum is trying to create the illusion that he and Norm were old drinking buddies. That is far from the truth. I had not had the pleasure of meeting Norm but I think we all owe him a debt of gratitude. I am sure each and everyone of our games have been influenced by his beliefs.