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Actually, that was excellent! You're back! Happy Easter

I think the casinos will love it. After all, it pushes card counting and the casinos know they already have that beat. I don't think it should worry us in the least.

Sorry Zenwin I got a little carried away there! You are exactly right. EVERYBODY has a bad day sooner or later. But some good can come of it. Rather than cry over spilt milk we need to use this as a teaching tool and Carlos needs to learn from a big mistake. I think I should give Carlos first crack at this. Carlos, see if you can list item by item everything you did wrong. You go first, then I'll go.

Ha ha ha holy shit! Guess what guys. I'm famous! I just got a call from Keith at 6;30 AM so I knew he was excited about something. You know that new BJ movie coming out supposedly about the Mit BJ team, well beatthecasino got a special invitation to the opening premier so Keith went. Now that's pretty strange already isn't it? Why would we get an invitation? But then the movie started and Keith saw immediately why we got an invitation. The movie starts with an exact replica of MY BJ seminar. Yep! Shell game and all! For the few of you who never attended an E Clifton Davis BJ seminar, I started every seminar off with the shell game. I did this to demonstrate the difference between SURFACE MATH that every card counting book uses and DEEP MATH which NBJ uses. Yep, they stole my whole idea and started their movie with it. How's that for coincidence. If you think that's coincidence I've got a bridge in Brooklyn I wanna sell ya. Then, they send us an invitation for the premier. Shit, how about paying us for the start of their movie! I don't mind. Everybody copies NBJ these days because it is the best. I always said that there is something awfully familiar about what that MIT team is doing. Mad Dog?

That makes 17 mistakes! Your quota is only 16. That's what happens when you play someone else's money. You just exaggerated it a little. But don't worry about it. I'll see if I can get Zenwin to help you.

Yes, a game can be random giving up virtually no tells. That is the best possible game for NBJ Third base 146. However, at the same time it can be strongly dealer biased. That is not the strongest game for the casino but just wait a while and it will turn into the strongest game: Clumped and dealer biased. You have two choices when the casino is full of such games: Go home or break the dealer bias. The first choice is the better one. But this is why we have been discussing the ways to break dealer biases. But my question is how did you end up in that predicament? You would have to completely ignore your In Search Of Manual. It was designed to keep you out of exactly that kind of fray. I can understand Zinwin who has little choice, but what were you doing there Carlos? You know better. NBJ is not about beating tough games. It's about avoiding tough games and beating easy games. In BJ overconfidence is a fatal sin. It is to be avoided at ALL costs. There are no parts of the manual you can take for granted no matter how good you get. Its the other way around. The better you get the more you avoid tough games. You were asleep at the switch. Why? I already told you why. You were playing someone else's money, weren't you? That's the only way I can see YOU, of all people, making such an amateurish mistake. I NEVER play someone else's money. It is impossible to do that and still play YOUR game. You can't help but let the fact influence your judgement and your play, no matter how hard you try. The real Carlos would have walked away. The real Carlos would not have been there in the first place. The real Carlos would have been there much earlier. New cards have no dealer bias. You KNOW that. You've walked out of many casinos W/O playing a hand BECAUSE you know that. Why didn't you this time? Because it was not your money. Don't ever make that mistake again. Now, you know. We learn more from bad experiences than good ones. Let this be a lesson learned. The hard way!

Cool, now I'll work on that thick headed Carlos! I can't believe this thread went two pages. This shit belongs with that MIT shit. Movie? God help us!

I think you mean Tall Tells. I think you guys have flipped your lids! There are no leprechuns! Elvis is dead! Take two aspirin and go to bed! It you can't find a sound mathematical basis for it don't bet hard earned money on it. NBJ is about FACT, not fiction!

Your question goes right to the heart of the matter. The dealer CAN'T break in a low card clump. So why stand with less than 17. You'll lose most of the time. When other players see you do this the smarter ones will catch on and do it too. It is the essence of NBJ. B.S. players are taught to GIVE the hand to the dealer in low card clumps. This is stupid.

Hi Zenwin. I'll defer to Ron for your shuffle machine question at least for now. But for your hot seat question, no it definitely is not your imagination. Its a very common phenomenon. Hot seats usually gravitate to the dealer. The next most common is next to the dealer, first or third. But sometimes they land on mid table seats. I have often used the trick Carlos mentions with great success but often the preceding seat is not open. No, you wouldn't go to two hands permanently. That is not the answer. But a momentary change in player number usually makes the hot spot shift. There are two ways to accomplish this. You can go to two hands for just a hand or two. Sometimes this works on the first try and sometimes it takes more than one try. Another way is to put up a place marker and step out about 3 hands before the end of a shoe. Leave the table but come back for the next shoe.And yet another way is to step out for an entire shoe. Come back during the next shoe but tell the dealer you'll wait for the next shoe. BTW that also works when the hot seat is at the dealer position. Give it a try.

Hitting to dealer strategy and beyond breaks up clumping and therefore breaks up dealer biases - IF you can do it enough and cheap enough.

Sometimes I think guns should be allowed in casinos!

This is correct and serves to dramatize why scheduling your play, as pointed out in In Search Of, is so important. Go the opposite way of the crowd. The crowd loses. Schedule your play when the casino is least crowded. Now you know why the casino closes tables to crowd up the open tables. Again, EVERYTHING they do is for their benefit, not yours. The more players at the table the harder it is to win. The less, the better. This, again, brings up team play. A 5 player team can take over a table and whenever dealer bias raises its ugly head, two players leave the game for a couple of shoes leaving up place markers. The remaining three players will usually have a great couple of shoes while destroying the dealer bias. You can do this all day long. If anyone tries to take one of the two remaining seats you all say to him: "Man you don't want to take that seat, the last two guys got killed there." "That seat is jinxed!" All is fair in war!

Dealer biases, also called cycle biases, are the No.1 problem we face in today's shoe game. They are extremely apparent to any heads up player. The telltale signs are we see dealer's getting FAR too many first card tens and we see the dealer hitting with impunity to 5 and 6 card hands while we hit and break. It seems magical. Magic or luck has nothing to do with it. It's pure mathematics. The solution is also pure mathematics and fortunately there are several. Dealer biases are caused by a combination of two things: clumping and Basic Strategy. Clumping causes the low card clumps the dealer so frequently hits into with impunity. Remember, the dealer CAN'T break on any card less than 6. Neither can you! This is why I constantly tell you to favor hitting in low card clumps. Basic Strategy preserves these clumps and reserves them for the dealer because Basic Strategy fails to hit enough in low card sections of the shoe. B.S. players fail to take their fair share of dealer favorable lows out of the game. They say STAND and let the dealer break precisely when she CAN'T break. And they leave sufficient lows in the game to insure the dealer's hand. This is why I frequently say that Basic Strategy is eventually self defeating. You cannot beat a strong dealer bias and EVERY shoe game will eventually produce a dealer bias - 8 deck more so and quicker than 6 deck but 6 deck will eventually get there with enough players in the game. This is why I say favor games with fewer players. An empty table is often empty BECAUSE it has a strong dealer bias. BEWARE! But head to head play will eventually break any dealer bias AND head to head play CANNOT produce a dealer bias. Likewise, new cards cannot have a dealer bias. Dealer biases are caused by continuous play with multiple players. When faced with a strong dealer bias we cannot win. Nobody can. We have two choices: get out of the game or break the dealer bias. Now we get to the meat: How do you break a dealer bias? First, recognize that your play alone is often insufficient to break a dealer bias. The more players in the game the less your play effects the dealer bias. You need a more radical approach. The Mad Dog approach is one good way. Go to minamum bet and play a couple sacrifice hands. Hit until they won't let you hit anymore. One hand will likely not be enough unless you get lucky and don't break until you have usurped enough lows. This is a good way especially if you are playing third because you are usurping the dealer favorable lows right in front of her hand. You are really not breaking the bias but you are moving it off of the dealer. Biases tend to move clockwise. So the First Base player may well get full benefit of your action. No matter. You don't have to beat the first base player. Your object is to beat the dealer by destroying her hand, her bias. This might give you the idea of why we do so well at team play by putting several sacrifice players in front of the dealer while putting our Big Player at first base. Get it? Another way is to change the player number. Play two hands for a couple rounds or get someone else to. "NO MIDSHOE ENTRY" Now see, you thought that sign was for the players benefit didn't you. That's what the casino keeps saying. That's the party line! There is one thing you can be absolutely sure of. The casino NEVER does anything for YOUR benefit. YOU are their mortal enemy. They only do things for THEIR benefit. They understand that as long as the player number remains the same, the dealer bias is preserved. THAT is the reason for the sign. If you can't change the player number, use Mad Dog's approach. But, either break the dealer bias or get out of the game! This might all suggest one other concept to you: Partners Play! What are the best positions for the partners? First and third. Frequently you have games that are right in the window where BOTH systems play well. But if you aren't that lucky one partner can go to min. bet and feed the other. This works best when third is weak. Third base hits through lows and stands as soon as a ten shows. Yes, it feeds dealer breaking tens into the dealer while usurping her lows. But when the dealer is pat, where do those tens go? Right, they go straight to your partner on the next hand! Try it! The dealer up card becomes virtually meaningless in low card clumps. A dealer 6 up is actually stronger than a ten up in a low card clump.

Ha ha, no NBJ player ever gets offended by another NBJ player. We are all keenly interested in each other's experiences and we all love war stories. See Zenwin, you are starting to develop war stories of your own. Of course we didn't set out to take the dealer's break card, its just an occupational hazard. All B.S. B.J. books teach their players to totally ignore how other players play. They say it makes no difference. Just go by your hand and the dealer's up card. WE know that both of these instructions are ridiculous. But the result is that other players will likely not even notice how frequenty your odd behavior SAVES the table. They only notice when you COST the table a win. Sometimes they react! NBJ players react to WHATEVER is happening in a game. If you are taking the dealer's break card TOO frequently, you react by playing that game closer to basic strategy. But, in general, low cards favor the dealer. In a low card clump, the dealer is very likely to get a low up. The other players have NO conception that the dealer CANNOT break as long as the low clump lasts. They therefore stand as soon as they reach a stiff total of 12 through 16. This, of course, makes the low clump last longer very often giving the dealer her hand. The other players are totally oblivious to this fact of BJ life. The truth is that it is Basic Strategy itself that gives the casino its 15% edge. Misery loves company! This popular saying might just as well have been created for BJ. It fits perfectly. What are the other players actually thinking? He's winning because he is playing wrong? Now, how stupid is that??? It fits right in with other stupid things we hear from them all the time. Like: "I'll be right with you, Honey, as soon as I lose these chips!" And then they proceed to do exactly that! They play to a plan! They plan to lose! And then they succeed! Next, they yell at you for not doing the same thing! Yep! Misery loves company. One of the hardest things for a new NBJ player to learn is to avoid being influenced by other players. But this comes with experience. Soon, you will totally ignore them. You know you've got it made when you can't remember if the other players were male or female or white, black, or yellow. The fact is, they just don't count. No pun intended. There is one exception. Dealers! Experienced dealers often make great players. They watch Basic Strategy NOT work all day long. They play according to the run of cards. Much closer to the way WE play. Dealers usually have great admiration for NBJ players. And NBJ is required reading for dealers at MOST casinos. We often tell war stories about the upstairs high stakes pit at the Claridge. That's where the pros played. It was actually on the Mezanine floor or however you spell it. Much of NBJ was written from my frequent play there. It was frequent that all the other players in the game were dealers. They play remarkably different than the book players and it often pays to watch their play. I often speak of dealer body language. It is common for us to get the dealer on our side. Experienced dealers get a great feel for what is coming out of the shoe next. I often change my call when the dealer obviously disagrees. But only if I know the dealer is on my side. Some dealers are through and through casino oriented. They play AGAINST you. But you get to where you can read their body language too. And play it. Hey, every little bit of knowledge helps!

Don't worry about this. I spoke of it often in NBJ and the Newsletters. Eventually it goes away as your reputation grows both with casino personnel and players. I've never heard of a casino using this excuse to ask a player to leave. The opposite is much more likely. Players play B.S. by the book and lose. This makes them extremely irritable to begin with. Then you take a dealer break card at third. Now they've got something to blame it all on. I'm usually looking to reduce the number of players at the table anyway. Certain remarks back at then work every time. Like: "You don't need any help from me to lose buddy. You're doing a fine job all by yourself." Or: "you play so bad, I'm just doing the opposite of whatever you do." I recall taking First Base with two other players in a clumped green game at Foxwood late one night. It was a perfect NBJ First Base game. They were playing perfect B.S. and making every mistake possible esp. doubling in the long low card runs. I had gone from 1,2 to 1,3 to 1,4 when one of them opened up on me. I replied: "look buddy, just since I sat down, you bought in 7 times and your buddy 4 times. I'm $3000 up and you guys are a total of $5000 down. Yet YOU guys insist on telling ME how to play BJ. No thanks guys, I'd rather win." Then I had the table to myself!

Hi Zenwin. It has to do with crowding. You always want to do the opposite of the crowds. A.C. is a Summer Resort. We avoid it in Summer. Vegas is mostly a Winter resort. So play AC in Winter and Vegas in Summer. Avoid all casinos on weekends and holidays. Esp avoid Chinese New Year. The two Connecticut casinos are best in Winter but are less seasonal than AC or Vegas. Weekday Winter mornings are best at either.

Sometimes you do and sometimes you don't. Lone tens is a major consideration in BJ. This is why we cover it so carefully in the NBJ manual. We monitor the table during play for the prevalence of lone tens. When lone tens are non existent, or mostly non existent, sure, we treat a first ten as a high clump signal. But when lone tens are prevalent, we confirm a first ten with the next card. This little trick is often a BIG money maker in an otherwise mediocre shoe. Try it, you'll like it. The difference between the winners and losers in a shoe is usually tiny tidbits of information. When a little trick like this saves you just one or 2 hands, it often makes the difference. What if that one hand is your 6 bet? Good players react to what the shoe tells them. Every rule in BJ is superceded by what your shoe is telling you. What is, is. Rule of thumb decisions are to be avoided whenever fact tells you otherwise. Fact is always stronger than rule of thumb. Basic Strategy is rule of thumb. Card counting is rule of thumb. Look where that got them! In perfectly random cards, tens are meaningless. Stick to 146. Fact over fiction.

Yes, I'm talking a 1 3 5 8 13 21 34. I think thats close to what Silverthorn teaches. Jim got it from Silverthorn. A true Fib would be 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34. Yeah, I had forgotten about your use of the Fib. So it wouldn't be the first time a Fib was used in some way in BJ. Right on.

Hi Jim, It's perfectly OK to note to the guys here that I have taken you under my wing. Guys, Jim has not yet begun his NBJ WCB studies but is about to. Jim, As you will learn, BJ is extremely sensitive to player number. An entering player will often turn a good game bad. But he can just as easily turn a bad game good. The key word here is "often". Note that I did not say always. What we are witnessing here is a general phenomenon created by what we call cycle bias. We have been known to exploit this phenomenon. Two players leaving a bad game will "usually" turn it good. Sometimes we use a team to exploit that phenomenon. Guys, I'll be working with Jim here, to target a specific game at that same Indian casino. It's a green, 8 deck, hand shuffled game. As most of you know, that is precisely my favorite cup of tea. Since Jim is a new player, I'm thinking the best approach here is First Base, Tripoint. That will automate play as much as possible while reducing the need for correct play study. We, of course, will need to teach Jim how to qualify First Base opportunities and how to schedule his play to best find those opportunities. I know that Jim's long progression up there probably raised some eyebrows. But Jim, at least for now, is sold on that progression. Rather than attempt to disuade him from that, I'm thinking this. The higher your hands won rate the less dangerous a long prog becomes. If Jim flat bets at table min on the low bet signals and continues his prog only on high bet signals..... In other words, he would interupt his prog to make table min. bets on low bet signals and only continue his prog on high bet signals. This would mean that a 7 bet prog would actually last for about 20 hands on avg. In yet other words, his prog would be restricted to only cream of the crop hands. I don't recall ever losing anywhere near 7 high bet hands in a row in a well qualified first base game????? In fact, I don't think I've ever lost 3 high bets in a row. This means that the emphasis must be on GOOD table selection and trip scheduling. This will be a high dollar experiment but I'd rather risk high dollars in the better green game than low dollars in the lesser red shuffle machine games. I'd like your comments. I wish one of you guys could be there to confirm table selection??? I'm thinking that Jim should at first restrict his prog to 3 bets at the outset to build bankroll. If he can do that successfully then perhaps he will see that more than 3 bets is an unnecessary risk. Jim has enjoyed some success with his 7 bet prog in Baccarat where your odds of winning are ALWAYS 50-50 each hand. I would peg his odds in First Base High bet only hands at more like 55-45 or maybe a little better in a good game. I do not think the 7 bet decision (or even a 4 bet decision) should ever be made before a game. It should be made only during a game that has already proven itself. Remember, you only have to be wrong once. I fully recognize Jim's choice of red games is primarily due to being able to fit his prog into the table stakes. But Jim lacks the experience to know how much easier it is to beat green 8 deck hand shuffled games. I'm thinking that once Jim sees the power of a 1,4,6 on the high bets only in that green game that he will arrive at the conclusion that a steeper 3 bet prog produces more profit at less risk than a shallower 7 bet prog. Also a 3 bet prog in a green game is more affordable than a 7 bet prog in a red game. The fact is that you can afford to lose that third bet more often than you think and still win. When you lose a 7 bet prog its good night Irene. I don't know Jims prog precisely but I'll guess his seventh bet in a nickel game is about 34 nickels or $170 while even at 146 in a green game your 3rd bet is $150. At 146 a prog loss is 11 units. A 7 bet fib prog loss is 85 units. Hmmm. If you lose 7 bets in a row with a 146 you're talking only 23 units. But along the way the 146 is making money much faster than a 1 3 5 8 13 21 34. That is true at equal units. But realistically if you compare a red Fib to a green 146 its no contest. I wonder which Silverthorn is playing these days? Guys, this is important! What are your comments?

Char, FIRST, congratulations are definitely in order. I can guarantee you that NOBODY other than NBJ players can say, nor will they ever be able to say what you just said so matter of factly. Nobody but us wins every session for several months. They don't even know that such play is possible, let alone normal. Whenever I tell people I played for 3 years W/O a losing day, they think I must be exaggerating. Now you know I'm not. Keep up the good work. And, you are asking the right question. This simple answer will help keep you on the straight and narrow AND keep those winning sessions coming with even better results. No Char, don't document your play by hands. Documentation is used to find when and where the best games are. You want to know exactly when and where you do best. By when, I meam what day of the week AND what time of day. Therefore: Document day, time, casino, pit, duration, unit size, system played and result. You might win at two different casinos on a given day and time but your notes should tell you which did best. That's the one you go back to first. Your notes should tell you two things: 1. Exactly when and where to play for optimum units per hour. 2. Exactly what, when and where to avoid. Remember, card counters are taught to play anywhere, any day, any time. They are taught it makes no difference. It makes EVERY difference. That is why you have no losing sessions and they do. What do they call it? Oh yeah, Standard Deviation. That's an excuse to lose. Never give yourself an excuse to lose. You will. As far as machines go, my first inclination is to agree with Mad Dog. But before you rule them out altogether, watch some games. Note if they present an obvious first or third base opportunity. If so, You KNOW what to do.

Yeah, over under was a cinch. I closed it down at Foxwood back in my greedy days. Not too bright! Been out of town 4 days. Playing catch up. Looks like we got a bunch of new NBJ players while I was gone. Guess I should go more often. Planning to play Tunica soon as I can get a chance.

Dam Mad Dog, I was beginning to wonder if they had shot you. How's the game going? Give us an update.

You're absolutely right playbig. Some heavy stuff went down in AC that todays players wouldn't even believe. Keith is out right at the moment but I'll Email you and get you set up myself. Hey, we are very happy to have you aboard. You still got your old manual? If not, I'll get you one.

Hi Playbig, I don't doubt a bit that you can count faster than me. I'll take your word for it. I'm happy with second place. And I don't doubt that you can call the last card closer than me. It makes a great parlor trick either way but yours will drop chins better than mine. But in the real world they don't deal to the last card. Most of us have to play real would shoe games either 6 or 8 deck. In those we can call the next card out of the shoe as well as the dealer's hole card hi or low more accurately than any card counter. That's whats important in todays real world BJ. And we can insure with incredible accuracy and double with better accuracy. And we can do it today better than ever and we don't have to be in downtown Vegas. I play 8 deck best but I got semi barred in Tunica in a single deck game. They won't count my comp time in Tunica. They've also stopped comping my room for Bac play. With the advent of Poker, NBJ is playing now better than ever because there are far more unfull tables than since the mid 80's. I know you have NBJ. That's why I offered free entry to our group. I'd like to see you start using it. I know card counting was proven but that was the single deck game of yesteryear. Today they shuffle up single deck mid shoe or often quicker. I've had them shuffle up on me every hand. I'd just like to see you start winning again just to see you remember how it was. I don't know of any card counters beating the shoe game today. Jerry and Stanford quit teaching it. I don't know of anybody teaching it today but I'm sure there's a few die hards from yesteryear. I'm sure that Kenny would still be alive today if he had simply learned WHEN to play in AC. Hell, he'd probably still be playing. But, when the cards were at their absolute worst late Saturday night, there was kenny beating his head against a brick wall. I don't know either what happened to John Terramino. He was an NBJ no rent guru and then suddenly vanished from the face of the Earth when he got married. Yeah the Claridge Balcony was special. Even the dealer's liked playing there. I had my first big win there before I went full time. I beat their four deck game for nine straight days. Then they shut it down. The 4 deck game I mean. It stayed one of my favorite places throughout my 3 years of full time play. Then, sadly, they closed the whole thing down. But Ed Winn went on to bigger and better things in Vegas. Well playbig its great to talk about the old days but I'm telling you, you can do it all over again. I don't care if NBJ is proven or not. We win big with it and we win consistently. We don't even talk in terms of drawdowns. Most important, we win TODAY with it better than ever. That's proof enough to me. Why don't you jump on the band wagon.