ECD

One thing I failed to mention D, perhaps the most important thing. You mentioned that the tens ratio dropped off at the end of the shoe. This provides a good picture of how the signature is used to your advantage. First, recognize that the drop off could have been anywhere in the shoe. It happened at the end only accidental to where you happened to place the cut off card. Now that drop off in tens ratio created an imaginary large trough below the axis line. This means that there is an equal and opposite "wave" above the axis line. If you didn't see it that is only because it fell in the cut off section. But it is still there someplace. For every low there is a high. For every bunch of lows there is a bunch of highs. The highs HAVE to be there someplace. How do you USE this information? OK, you now KNOW that the shoe is mostly random. But you also know that at some point there is a large wave of highs and an equal large trough of lows. You are interested in both abnormalities and you watch for them in the next shoe. It is close to impossible to shuffle these abnormalities out. In fact they tend to "grow" from shoe to shoe. OK so as soon as lows (or highs) start getting abnomally plentiful you recognize that you are in that section of the shoe from the sine wave you committed to memory and you react accordingly. In the low trouth you will want to bet less and hit more and avoid double downs and splits. You would also avoid any third bets in the low trouth. Give her a run for her money. You will be the only player at the table doing so. In the high wave you want to bet more and hit less. But NEVER go more than three bets in your prog. That is suicidal. As you practice, make a conscious effort to stay in sinc with the shoe signature. This does 3 things: It optimizes your hands won ratio, minimizes money bet on losing hands and maximizes money bet on winning hands. This may seem nonsensical and coincidental when you first start but as you go, track your hands won rate and watch it grow. This provides incentive to carry on. Right guys?

Thanks Carlos, here is an Email reply: From: dbaker7@woh.rr.com To: ellis@beatthecasino.com Subject: Tens Ratio, Shoe signature Date: Tue, 27 Nov 2007 20:32:00 -0500 Ellis, Thank you for your response to my questions. Welcome to the group Donna! I'm relieved that I discovered who wrote that Email I lost. At least I remembered what it said. I was practicing blackjack at home last night and in one shoe the tens ratio was very consistent with 3 or 4 tens (6 deck shoe with 6 practice players) every round until the last 2 or 3 rounds when the ratio suddenly dropped. So am I correct in thinking that the “Waves†were small and that I would be better off playing more with basic strategy in this type of shoe. And, if given a choice, choose to play 3rd base? Also, how would you recommend betting in this type of shoe? Very good Donna! This was a good third base game. While good 6 player games usually don't stay good very long this would be a good hit and run game to hit while the iron is hot. Your focus here would be to expect and watch for game deterioration. You should have one foot on the floor ready to leave quickly at the first sign of deterioration but you might get several good shoes out of it. Signs of deterioration here would be first, of course, the tens ratio going South. But you would also watch dealer first card tens. Is she starting to get more than her fair share of 4 out of 13. And dealer breaks: She will probably be breaking about 1 out of 4 while the tens ratio stays healthy but as the tens ratio deteriorates she will break less and less. Is the dealer still breaking when she should or is she beginning to make good 4,5,and 6 card hands? You know that eventually you will start losing in such a game so the idea is to get out before you do while staying in as long as you can. Yes, you should definitely be at third in such a game. But that many players will develop a dealer bias quickly. For a while, hopefully several shoes, her hands will be very similar to your's. That's good because you always have 3 hands to beat her. But watch for her hands to start getting better than yours. I would start with a 112 prog but quickly move to 123, 134 and 146. I would move up quickly while the game stays hot. Often in such a game you find yourself winning every other hand. Watch for this and if it occurs, reduce your prog to 2 bets instead of 3 to stay in sinc with what is happening. 6 players plus the dealer is a very dangerous situation. Too dangerous to go higher than 1,3 or 1,4 at the most. This is no place to start making 5 bets. Save those for fewer players. If possible, I would try to reduce the players in such a game to reduce volatility. They don't let you shoot anybody but sometims remarks work. Like hey man, nobody has been able to win in that seat all night long. That seat is jinxed. Or if somebody starts playing 2 hands I'd say, you know, this game was a whole lot better when you played ONE hand. Sometimes I wink at the guy next to me. THAT ALWAYS WORKS! Thanks for your patience with me. These concepts are so new to me. I really have a lot to learn.

You can't go wrong by noting what's going on in the game you are playing right now and adjusting to it. That is really what NBJ is all about. As far as noting what hole card she is breaking on. No, because you note the most frequent breaking up card to aid your hit or stand decision. For instance, if she is never or virtually never breaking on 5 or 6 ups, which is quite common in clumped games, you would not bet that she will by standing on a stiff against a 5 or 6 like basic strategy makes you do. But the breaking hole card can't help you because you haven't seen it yet when you make your play decision.

Sure, start with NBJ and In Search Of. If you can't afford both at the same time Get NBJ first. Also start looking for a place to get casino quality cards cheap. You'll be needing lots of them. If you've got anything that plays the old video tapes, Send me 50 bucks and I'll send you a home practice video. I've also got the NBJ and WCB audios. I know Keith has some so you can listen on computer but the guys like to listen to them in their cars. Those are $50 ea. Ea audio package is 4 tapes about 2 hrs each package. The video is as long as my son could balance a Sharp stereo super eight on his head. But even my critics say that the WCB audio tapes are the best in BJ history. I take you right along on a casino trip to Turning Stone and tell you everything I am doing and why. I still listen to it myself before a casino trip to get my mind in the right place. But first step is get the nbj manual from Keith. Read through it quickly the first time. A couple of light bulbs will turn on. Then read through it slowly several times. With each reading more light bulbs will turn on. Then set up a practice area at home. The video shows you how and start practicing. Then read some more. BTW, you certainly won't be the oldest person I ever taught, not by a long shot. And remember, you'll have some darn good mentors who like being mentors.

Good going Carlos! You're making a real habit of this. You might mention for the newbies here that good 8 deck games last much longer than good 6 deck games. It simply takes longer for the same number of players to change an 8 deck game. You know, in our old NBJ forum a few years back I used to get inundated with criticism from the many card counting groups and their gurus. Now, we don't hear from those guys at all any more. That fits right in with that news release you sent me about my big competitor Doug Grant. He quit teaching card counting altogether, joined up with Ron F. who I taught NBJ to, and now they teach a form of NBJ. You would think this would make me angry but it doesn't at all. The way I look at it is NBJ is so little known by the general public that every little bit helps my overall cause. Besides, they can never teach it as well as the originator. I don't know if you know this but likewise, Stanford Wong, the biggest living card counting guru, also recently quit card counting altogether and threw in with my old NBJ publisher Jerry Patterson who also had quit card counting to teach a form of NBJ. It's like rats off a sinking ship. Given enough time, the truth always wins out. Of course it always helps to have show offs like you, Mad Dog and Charr running around America performing BJ feats, the likes of which, no card counter has ever experienced. Thanks for your trip report and keep up the good work.

charr, you are thinking about this correctly. There is no harm in getting rated and it can only help your bottom line. You can't hide. They have other ways to find out who you are anyway. But room comps get tricky when playing pro. Except for very high rollers with a losing history, casinos will usually only comp your room for 3 nights. They figure it this way: In 3 days they should have all your money so there is no point in comping you further. But, they figure, if they don't have all your money then you are too good to comp. You will be in the later category. Either way, when you are staying at casinos, you end up needing a new room every three days. Therefore, from a comp standpoint you are better off to only play a casino for two days. On the third day, change to the casino you hope to get comped at next. When I did this, I played the morning session normally at the new target casino. But in the afternoon session I bought in for $1000 instead of $300. I always separated the $700 in chips from my normal pile of $300. The only purpose of that $700 is to get comped easier. On your comp tiket at the pit boss desk the most important entries to the pit boss in deciding your comp is your hours of play and your buy-in amount. Ok, your next trick is to wait until you have a big bet out to ask for your comp. Also wait until you have max hrs of play. Using this technique I was often able to stay comped for a month or more even though I had to "move" every 3 days. Limit your belongings to one easy to carry rugged duffle. I used the same rickshaw driver with every move and tipped him well. They carry cell phones these days so thats easy to do. Keep it quick and convenient. You don't need distractions.

Re: Going Full Time Pro. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Charr here: Thank You Ellis. Your insights and experiences continue to be so valuable to me. It's funny though, that we've never met. I too had learned not to play new cards so I'm glad you had mentioned the prep issue. Please more insights on this and any other details. I believe I will be starting on this new life in the early part of the new year. I thank you once again (for sharing your knowledge) and for allowing this to be an option for me. Well, i need to go practice so I will await another post. I hope you realize how important your posts are to us. Oh by the way, if you are ever in georgia and want to have some great golf I'll hook you up with my brother who is a club pro. Plan on any AC trips in the future? I'll be there for sure. charr 11-10-2007, 11:25 PM charr here again Re: Going Full Time Pro. Ellis and everyone, As a pro relying on the game for your income do you think we should get to know the casino personel or a particular person or be in complete stealth mode, in and out of there?? Pros / Cons? charr #27 11-11-2007, 05:30 AM E. Clifton Davis Professional Player Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 297 Re: Going Full Time Pro. Char, forget stealth mode. Forget getting to know them. THEY will get to know YOU much quicker than you think. Don't make the mistake I made! Be friendly with these people. They make strong alliances. Tip well when you win and DON'T tip when you lose. They catch on quick. New cards make a great asset. Your biggest obstacle is not clumping, it's dealer biases. New cards do not have dealer biases. Dealer biases are inherant in repeated play of the same cards but cannot exist in new cards. It's very refreshing to see dealers getting only 4 ten ups in 13 hands rather than 6 or 8 like they do later in the day. It's also very refreshing when the dealer CAN'T push your 20's and 21's with the amazing frequency she will later in the day. And it's refreshing not to see dealer 5,6 and 7 card 21s like you will see later in the day. But recognize that there are THREE types of new cards. First base, Third base and unplayable. You will learn how to watch card preps and know what to expect. But it is MORE important to record which casinos produce which results with their preps. It takes an act of God for a casino to change their initial new card prep. They all think THEY have the best one but they aren't prepping for NBJ players. We are only 1 in a thousand. When you find a good morning First or Third Base situation it often stays that way for weeks. The card prep Mgr doesn't have the authority to CHANGE the prep. This must go through channels. But, the more morning "gifts" you find the better. Because The less you exploit the same one, the longer it takes for them to change it. Find 3 or 4 because they aren't that hard to find. Find them playing nickels. That's what nickels are for. Once you find them and prove them out, go straight to quarters. But also watch the card preps from afar to make sure they didn't change their routine. If you suspect a change, go back to nickels until you "verify". Remember, when you go pro, you have the extra time to take advantage of these things. BUT, advantages are not advantages unless you take advantage of them! __________________ E. Clifton Davis #28 11-11-2007, 05:37 AM E. Clifton Davis Professional Player Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 297 Re: Going Full Time Pro. Hi Charr, You know, you have one big advantage over me when I went pro. You have a reliable mentor. I thought I had several. Until I found out that they were WRONG about virtually EVERYTHING! __________________ Order Universal Baccarat - $500; Order NBJ - $195

You know, you have one big advantage over me when I went pro. You have a reliable mentor. I thought I had several. Until I found out that they were WRONG about virtually EVERYTHING!

Char, forget stealth mode. Forget getting to know them. THEY will get to know YOU much quicker than you think. Don't make the mistake I made! Be friendly with these people. They make strong alliances. Tip well when you win and DON'T tip when you lose. They catch on quick. New cards make a great asset. Your biggest obstacle is not clumping, it's dealer biases. New cards do not have dealer biases. Dealer biases are inherant in repeated play of the same cards but cannot exist in new cards. It's very refreshing to see dealers getting only 4 ten ups in 13 hands rather than 6 or 8 like they do later in the day. It's also very refreshing when the dealer CAN'T push your 20's and 21's with the amazing frequency she will later in the day. And it's refreshing not to see dealer 5,6 and 7 card 21s like you will see later in the day. But recognize that there are THREE types of new cards. First base, Third base and unplayable. You will learn how to watch card preps and know what to expect. But it is MORE important to record which casinos produce which results with their preps. It takes an act of God for a casino to change their initial new card prep. They all think THEY have the best one but they aren't prepping for NBJ players. We are only 1 in a thousand. When you find a good morning First or Third Base situation it often stays that way for weeks. The card prep Mgr doesn't have the authority to CHANGE the prep. This must go through channels. But, the more morning "gifts" you find the better. Because The less you exploit the same one, the longer it takes for them to change it. Find 3 or 4 because they aren't that hard to find. Find them playing nickels. That's what nickels are for. Once you find them and prove them out, go straight to quarters. But also watch the card preps from afar to make sure they didn't change their routine. If you suspect a change, go back to nickels until you "verify". Remember, when you go pro, you have the extra time to take advantage of these things. BUT, advantages are not advantages unless you take advantage of them!

Well, you haven't got it quite right but Close. While I have done that on occasion when it was too crowded to play that isn't how I got ejected. First, recognize that the more crowded the casino is, the more the cards are clumped and the more the cards are clumped the more accurate your insurance bets will be and the higher your win rate will be on insurance bets. In fact, as the cards clump more and more, particularly on a Friday or Saturday night, there comes a point where you are much better off to not play but just back bet insurance bets over somebody's shoulder. While you only need to win a third of your insurance bets, on such nights you can easily win 80 - 90% of them or more. When you know how, it is easily the best bet in the casino by a mile and puts you in a can't lose situation. At a $10 table the dealer should get an Ace up 1 out of 13 hands but in a clumped game, and the $10 games will be clumped the most, you will find the dealer getting an ace up 1 out of 10 or more due to the cycle bias caused by basic strategy. While normally you would find yourself only betting about a third of those Aces, on a crowded clumped night, it will be closer to half. You make up for your scarcity of bets by betting insurance on all 7 hands. Yeah, you'll lose now and then but when you win, you get paid 2 to 1. Yeah, every BJ book but mine tells you never insure. Its a good thing those guys can write books because they certainly can't play BJ. But the incident you are referring to occurred at the Claridge, AC. I hd been playing the same $25 table for nealy 5 hours when the dealer called the pit boss over right after I successfully insured yet again. She said this guy can see my hole card! He's been here over four hours and hasn't made a mistake on insurance. Every time I have the ten he's got insurance up and everytime I don't he doesn't. The pit boss said that's impossible! He came around behind me and placed his chin right on my right shoulder and told the dealer to deal. Sure enough she dealt herself an Ace. The conditions were right so I insurred the whole table. She turned over a BJ! He says, I don't know how you are doing it but buddy you're out of here. Well, The Claridge is GONE but I'm still here and still insurring in spite of what all the books say. What do they know? If the books were right, the casinos would have gone broke a long time ago.

Well the italics didn't come out the way I hoped but I think you guys can decipher ir.

These are all excellent questions Char and point out to me how serious your contemplations are. I'll take your questions one at a time below but first a couple of general notes: I think that both of you should recognize and make use of the fact that you know a whole lot more starting out than I did. If I wrote NBJ over again only for professional players I wouldn't change a thing. NBJ & WCB are the pro's bible even if that wasn't my initial intention. But you need to be proficient in ALL of it to turn pro. You need to avoid the mistales that I made. As a pro, table selection and searching out the right table on the right day at the right time is just as important as card play. And First base play and Third Base play are equally important. It is true that NBJ conditions are better today than ever before but recognize that advantages are advantages only if you take advantage of them. Also, while casinos are having a hard time keeping their tables full these days, they are still 20 years smarter than when I played full time. This means that you must continue learning from your experiences. They will always be deploying new tricks. The game is never stagnant. Going pro isn't a new job, it's a new life. It isn't just about playing right, its about living right. Certainly Mad Dog is right. You need to send up some trial ballons. Try playing for a week or two full time. See how you handle the stress of it and the rigors of it. Sure, you can do it when you're doing it for fun. But can you do it when your life and the lives of your dependants are at stake?

WHEW! Carlos never asks just one question! Well, first recognize that in the time period that I played full time, I had not yet written NBJ. NBJ was the end product of those 3 years. I had my card play down pat when I started but not my table selection. In fact, when I started, I didn't even reaize that table selection was a topic for learning, let alone half the battle. Nor had I developed the first base system yet. So when I started, I strictly played Third Base 1-4-6. If it didn't ALWAYS work at the FIRST table I sat down to, it ALWAYS worked at the LAST table I sat down to. It NEVER took more than three. Almost never. I had read every BJ book there was and already knew that MY card play was ten times better than theirs. So I had thrown out the books BUT that part about it doesn't matter when or where you play or where you sit still lingered with me when I started. In fact, when I started, I was still waiting 2 hours before I would play new cards. But playing three sessions a day every day and keeping copious notes, it wasn't long at all before I realized that EVERYthing in those books was wrong. The FIRST thing I learned was to play third base. My notes clearly determined that. The 2nd thing I learned was to avoid Fri and Sat nights, again, from my notes. The third thing that I learned was the fewer the players the better. But the night you are referring to was before I had that third revelation. In fact, that night BEGAN my third revelation! It was a Fri. night, the LAST Fri. night I ever played. I had been playing every day for two months and I had had an excellent day. I was about $8000 up for the day when I hit the Boardwalk to find my night game. I was totally confident that I was about to have my first $10,000 day. After all, $8000 up in two sessions playing quarters was extreme even for me. I ducked into Caesars. I sat down in the first empty third base seat I saw and lost my 12 unit buy-in in 4 or 5 hands. Changed tables and did it again, and again and again and again. It all took less than an hour. At that point I had broken two of my own records. It was the first time I was ever up $8000 in two sessions and the first time I was ever down $1500 in one session. The casino Mgr. had watched the last three buy-ins. This was not unusual at all for me. I was on a first name basis with a dozen of them by then. I didn't like a one of them and they hated me. So he says, "Ellis, it's just not your night! Try again tomorrow! It wasn't what he said that got me, it was that mocking tone he used. I said, when I leave, I'll leave here a winner. He says a hundred dollars says you don't. I plopped down ten hundreds on the table and said a thousand says I do! YOU'RE ON! he says! Then I took a long walk around the casino with my mind racing. I had about $6000 in my pocket which was more than enough. But what was I doing wrong? What was I doing different from what I had done all day. NOTHING, It's not me, it's the game! I've seen nothing but class C hands since I got here. WHY? What is different from what I've been seeing and playing all day long? PLAYER NUMBER! I played two and three player games ALL DAY LONG and tonight I'm only playing 6 and 7 player games. I had seen this 2 player $100 game in the back before and had immediately discarded it because it was a $100 game. I had never played a $100 game before. Recognize in current dollars, that's a $1000 game! I went back to look again. These two players had been playing at least two hours and were both obviously way ahead. They were also lying across the seats taking up 6 seats. Why? They obviously don't want anyone else to sit down. Why? Right back to it. PLAYER NUMBER! They KNOW something I don't. Much to their disgruntlement I took third making them sit up a little. I bought in for $1200. A shoe later they were sitting up straight and taking notice. All unfriedliness had vanished. I was breaking the dealer like crazy! The casino mgr came over and watched me break even for the night. But I didn't quit. In about four shoes I had my $10,000 day plus a bonus from the casino mgr. I never made that mistake again! I learned two valuable lessons that night. Don't play Fri nights and don't play full tables. Oh, and one other thing, Stakes are meaningless. Game quality is everything!

WHEW! Carlos never asks just one question! Well, first recognize that in the time period that I played full time, I had not yet written NBJ. NBJ was the end product of those 3 years. I had my card play down pat when I started but not my table selection. In fact, when I started, I didn't even reaize that table selection was a topic for learning, let alone half the battle. Nor had I developed the first base system yet. So when I started, I strictly played Third Base 1-4-6. If it didn't ALWAYS work at the FIRST table I sat down to, it ALWAYS worked at the LAST table I sat down to. It NEVER took more than three. Almost never. I had read every BJ book there was and already knew that MY card play was ten times better than theirs. So I had thrown out the books BUT that part about it doesn't matter when or where you play or where you sit still lingered with me when I started. In fact, when I started, I was still waiting 2 hours before I would play new cards. But playing three sessions a day every day and keeping copious notes, it wasn't long at all before I realized that EVERYthing in those books was wrong. The FIRST thing I learned was to play third base. My notes clearly determined that. The 2nd thing I learned was to avoid Fri and Sat nights, again, from my notes. The third thing that I learned was the fewer the players the better. But the night you are referring to was before I had that third revelation. In fact, that night BEGAN my third revelation! It was a Fri. night, the LAST Fri. night I ever played. I had been playing every day for two months and I had had an excellent day. I was about $8000 up for the day when I hit the Boardwalk to find my night game. I was totally confident that I was about to have my first $10,000 day. After all, $8000 up in two sessions playing quarters was extreme even for me. I ducked into Caesars. I sat down in the first empty third base seat I saw and lost my 12 unit buy-in in 4 or 5 hands. Changed tables and did it again, and again and again and again. It all took less than an hour. At that point I had broken two of my own records. It was the first time I was ever up $8000 in two sessions and the first time I was ever down $1500 in one session. The casino Mgr. had watched the last three buy-ins. This was not unusual at all for me. I was on a first name basis with a dozen of them by then. I didn't like a one of them and they hated me. So he says, "Ellis, it's just not your night! Try again tomorrow! It wasn't what he said that got me, it was that mocking tone he used. I said, when I leave, I'll leave here a winner. He says a hundred dollars says you don't. I plopped down ten hundreds on the table and said a thousand says I do! YOU'RE ON! he says! Then I took a long walk around the casino with my mind racing. I had about $6000 in my pocket which was more than enough. But what was I doing wrong? What was I doing different from what I had done all day. NOTHING, It's not me, it's the game! I've seen nothing but class C hands since I got here. WHY? What is different from what I've been seeing and playing all day long? PLAYER NUMBER! I played two and three player games ALL DAY LONG and tonight I'm only playing 6 and 7 player games. I had seen this 2 player $100 game in the back before and had immediately discarded it because it was a $100 game. I had never played a $100 game before. Recognize in current dollars, that's a $1000 game! I went back to look again. These two players had been playing at least two hours and were both obviously way ahead. They were also lying across the seats taking up 6 seats. Why? They obviously don't want anyone else to sit down. Why? Right back to it. PLAYER NUMBER! They KNOW something I don't. Much to their disgruntlement I took third making them sit up a little. I bought in for $1200. A shoe later they were sitting up straight and taking notice. All unfriedliness had vanished. I was breaking the dealer like crazy! The casino mgr came over and watched me break even for the night. But I didn't quit. In about four shoes I had my $10,000 day plus a bonus from the casino mgr. I never made that mistake again! I learned two valuable lessons that night. Don't play Fri nights and don't play full tables. Oh, and one other thing, Stakes are meaningless. Game quality is everything!

Hey Char, I think you are setting your daily sights too low. I think you should win more per day and play fewer days. I did the worst when I played seven days a week. I actually made more PER WEEK when I played only 4 days a week. Actually 3.5 because I always quit early on Friday. I eventually learned to also avoid Mondays along with Saturdays, Sundays, and Friday nights. While of course you would avoid Holiday mondays, I found that Mondays contained too many weekend straggelers trying to win back their weekend losses and you were better off to avoid all Mondays. Save your energy for Tuesdays. The best day was Thursday. Like you, at first, I did a lot of financial planning and goal setting. But what really happens is a lot of that went out the window. The stakes you play end up pretty much dictated to you. You will quickly learn to avoid the red tables except first thing in the morning. After that, they get too much play to be viable. Then, eventually you learn to play green in the morning because new cards give you your best unit win performances. The same phenomenon happens again in the late afternoon around 4P. Except now it is green that is becomming less viable, forcing you to black. Night play is almost always better at black tables. So on a good day, and most of your days will be good, you end up making a lot more than you planned. Overall, this works out well because the good days carry you through the bad days. By bad days, I'm not referring to losing days, I'm referring to days where its a struggle to make anything. There are two kinds of bad days. First there are days when you just don't have your shit together. And, there are days when the casino DOES! You may know it as soon as you get up in the morning. Or, you realize in your first game that you aren't playing well. Or maybe you failed your alacrity test you give yourself every morning. Good! That gives you a good reason to take the day off. Treat youself to a day at the spa or the pool or even the beach. Just don't swim in the ocean there. Long hours of BJ take their toll. You need rest and relaxation. The test is to keep yourself in tip top shape mentally and physically and to recognize the first signs of fatigue and correct the situation. Those really good days allow you to do that without any feelings of guilt. You earned it and you need it to keep earning it. Tomorrow will be a better day for it.

Perhaps both methods can find a middle road in this: The main tennant of both NBJ and going Pro is this: Find the conditions you play and play the conditions you find. We all recognize that conditions have a big and ever changing range from barely playable at the bottom to can't do anythig wrong at the top. We all adjust our card play and our betting to match the conditions we find ourselves in. Our degree of aggressivity must do exactly the same. How easy was the last pile and how consistent was is? Was it getting easier or harder or remaining constant? Now we have a basis for an enlightened decision on how to procede. In great conditions we match our aggressivity to those conditions. We "go for the jugular"! But the Pro, likewise uses measured restraint in tougher conditions. Sometimes 3 piles after your buy-in pile is captured is the right approach. And sometimes one pile, raise the stakes, is the right approach. Sometimes doubling the stakes is right and sometimes the Fibonaci is right. Pros don't march blindly on, they're Pros!

Ha ha, not on your life. Yes, that is the most revealing tip I ever gave for free but there is a method to my madness. When I started, there was no internet. I gained all the prominence I needed doing live casino exhibitions in front of large crowds. This generation doesn't know me from Adam. When it comes to gaming, nearly all of what they see on the internet is phony baloney. Some is obvious and some not so obvious. I get calls and Emails on a regular basis from good people who fell victim to these scams. How do they know that my program is any different? How do they know that NBJ is not a scam but is the best way BJ can be played. They don't, and there is nothing I can say to remedy that. So, instead of making a bunch of groundless claims like everybody else. I decided that a sample of how NBJ works is far more convincing. Yes, maybe my sample will be over the heads of some novices and some it won't be. But they can always ask questions of someone who knows, like you, for instance. I'm hoping they will learn that tip really is a hot tip and want to know more.

Yes, I do that also and A similar thing with a hit decision. In a close hit/stand decision I go by the last card dealt. If it would have improved my hand I hit, and if not, I don't. In many games it is more accurate than B.S.

A similar question always comes up: Don't people complain when you don't make the book play? Very, very seldom. Remember that you are ALWAYS at either first or third. People don't question you when they have to dodge around your chip piles just to see you. But once in a while..... I recall a late night green 3 player game at Foxwood. I was at first. The third base player complained about a play I made even though the play won. I said, look Buddy, I've been playing here for an hour. I bought in once with 12 chips. I now have 6 more piles of 12 chips. Since I have been here, you have gotten your wallet out 6 times while I patiently waited for the dealer to count out even more chips to you. Yet YOU insist on telling ME how to play BJ. After that, I had the table to myself which is exactly what I wanted in the first place. NBJ players are at their greatest advantage head to head. So how do card counting instructors fare in such games? I have no idea. I never saw one in a real casino.

Excellent question! You aren't making money walking the isles or monitoring tables but you are preparing the way to make money faster. So your time is not wasted. Time in a losing game IS wasted. So one object of good table selection is to avoid losing games. Characteristics of such games stick out like a sore thumb when you know exactly what to look for. Most tables can be eliminated from consideration W/O even breaking stride in your walk down the isle between tables. You can check both sides W/O breaking stride. Often entire pits can be eliminated by time of day criteria and day of week criteria. But good tables also stand out. Certain criteria makes a table worth a second look. It can be included or eliminated within about 3 hands so you are not there long. Your objective is to find the EASIEST table for you to beat in the entire casino. That's what Pro BJ is all about. You may include several tables as candidates. A third look will tell you the best table. You aren't ALWAYS right. That is why we have such a small buy in. When you ARE right, and you usually are, that small buy in is all you need. THAT is how pros play. How the other players are doing is of little consequence. You aren't going to play like they play. Heaven forbid! You are looking for YOUR criteria for YOUR brand of play.

Ha ha, well in Vegas, not driving is probably more of a blessing than a handicap. The reason I needed to know is that NBJ does take some footwork for proper table selection, not nearly as much as Target, but some. I once told Jerry that Target is a great weight loss program. The no rent first base ploy requires a lot of time on your feet. If you were not ambulatory I would have pointed you toward the U2Hi. I've had many students confined to wheel chairs. One even made the Bahamas team play trip with us and had a ball. His team won the most money and he continued on to be an excellent player. When he died his wife posted on the forum that we had given him the best years of his life and had returned him to his roll of chief bread winner. Did my heart good! In the First Base ploy we use a simple parlor trick to tell us when we have the advantage on the NEXT hand. When we do, of course, we make our high bet. The rest of the time we make our low bet. We call the low bet hands "rent". Now, mind you, this is not as easy as it sounds because first, you must know how to select good first base games. But that is fully detailed in your NBJ manual and it is ridiculously easy when you know how. I've often said: "it's much easier to walk into a casino with a million dollars trying to make $25 than to walk in with 25 trying to make a million. In fact, as you know, it is virtually impossible to make any money in a casino out of $25. That is, unless you know the First Base No Rent Ploy. Then it is easy to make a good bankroll out of $25. Here's what you do: First you find a good first base game. You need a manual for that but it is not hard at all. Good first base games are very easy to identify. Then you say to the first base player, "You are a real good player, do you mind if I make a few bets over your shoulder." See, you have just circumvented the two most casino favorable rules, the minimum bet rule and the must bet every hand rule. Those rules simply don't apply to "back bettors" in any casino. Now, of course, you only bet the advantage hands. You pay "no rent" for your game. It is a sure winner. Maybe not the most fun way to play but we aren't there for fun and winning is always fun no matter how you did it. You can start with nickels and work your way to quarters. At $300, you have enough for a buy in at a green table. Hey, where there is a will, there is a way! I can't cut back and copy the insurance post now that I've begun this post but its just a page or 2 back in this same thread so you can find it easy. Now THAT, you don't need a manual for. You could do it tomorrow. I even told you how to find the right games. It's the biggest tip I've posted to the public in 20 years. Think about this! There is nothing to stop you from betting insurance no rent! There is a little known ruling in BJ that says you can insure anybody's hand, not just your own. Casinos allow this because insurance is normally one of the worse bets in a casino. But not if you know how. And I told you exactly how. Find a game where tens are following tens out of the dealer shoe half the time or thereabouts. This is NOT hard to do. On a crowded Sat night it may very well be most tables because the more cards are played the more they clump. When you find this table the players are usually losing big time because basic strategy can't beat a sufficiently clumped game because the dealer will be nowhere near a 28% break rate, a must for basic strategy. Stand where you can see the third base players hand. Ok, the dealer gets an ace up. She will do this more than 1 out of 13 in a clumped game. Ever notice that? Ok, the dealer gets an Ace up. Check the third base players 2nd card. When its a ten, insure! His second card is the card just before the dealers hole card. If its a ten, the dealer's odds of having a ten in the hole are exactly the same as the tens following tens ratio. Get it? This is not an opinion, it's an absolute mathematical FACT. Now you don't just insure the 3rd base players hand. You insure EVERYBODY's hand at the table. YES, you are allowed to do that. It's perfectly legal! Now, if somebody has a $1000 bet out, you don't insure for $500, you insure for what you can reasonably afford. The dealer will wait for you because she is taught that insurance is a stupid bet. You can always insure for less, You just can't insure for more. Your odds of winning are 50% but the payoff on insurance is 2 to 1. Do you see that? It is the best bet in the casino and in the long run its an absolute winner. You don't have to win half the time, you only have to win a third of the time to break even. Do you think you can win a third of the time when the odds are 50 50? I certainly hope so. If not, you better start going to church. Look, open your mind! Insurance is not insurance! You aren't insurring anything! Insurance is a simple side bet. You are simply betting the dealer has a ten in the hole, nothing more, nothing less. When she does, they pay you 2 to 1. You can bet up to half of the TOTAL money bet on the table by all of the players combined! This is the tip of your life, you will never get a better one anywhere. It is a reward from me, E. Clifton Davis, to all of you just for being a reader of my forum. The only thing I ask in return is please, tell your friends about this forum and how to get on it. Is it a scam? No. Ask ANY mathematician. It's pure math, nothing more, nothing less. Does it work? You bet! Nothing up my sleeves, count my fingers. Do the casinos know about this? Thank God, no! Not yet! Is it legal? Absolutely! Can I do it next Saturday? Have you got $25? Then absolutely. Now go out and tell your friends about this forum. I want everybody reading MY forum to have a great way to make money. When you've got $200, buy the NBJ manual. We've got a thousand tricks just like that one. No bull! Our players win! Ask them! I HATE casinos. I want ALL my players to take their money. I make darn sure MY players do exactly that!

Well Chuck asked a similar question before on the 146 thread and I told him less than a month ago that our buy in is always 12 units. Quote from 9/28 "our buy in is ALWAYS 12 units. We call that a pile. Our first goal is to make 3 piles not counting our buy in... Quote. I spewed on for another page about our cash mgt, That's why I couldn't understand Chuck's post on GR. Made no sense to me. Out of context. Let's forget it. I think he understands our cash mgt. now and maybe just had a momentary lapse. That's what happens when you get my age. And since Chuck is very familiar with play conditions in the '70's....? But Chuck, did you understand our insurance strategy? That one tip can make you enough money in a matter of days to pay for several NBJ manuals particularly at todays prices. Also I mentioned to you that you could make a good bankroll with our first base no rent ploy. I'm surprised you didn't want to hear more about that???? And, are you catching the mathematics of why our play decision basis and our betting basis is so much more accurate than....your prior cohorts let's call them? And, not to be intrusive, I'm curious about your downtown to strip hardship. Are you handicapped in any way? If so, I have a lot of experience with handicapped players and can make certain recommendatios. For instance, First base no rent may not be an option for you but there are others??? If this is the case, let's get it out in the open either right here or Email me private if you want.

Right, and Patterson learned it many years ago from me. In fact, Patterson inspired me to write NBJ and was my first publisher. Clumping, as I wrote in my breakthrough article in '86 in Eddie Olsen's BJ Confidential, is caused by the card pickup and preserved and often enhanced by the shuffle. Recognize that this is precisely why the casinos pick up the mostly low break cards first and the mostly high stand cards last. This sorts the highs vs lows as cleanly as the double discard shoe at the Bahamas Playboy Club did in the mid 80's. They got shut down for that, among other things. Even the Bahamians saw through it. Of course, the casino party line is "we do that so we don't accidently pay a breaking hand". Pure bull! When is the last time you saw a dealer pay a losing hand? If they didn't pick up the break cards first and simply swept up all hands in order, they could settle all arguments at the table by simply dealing the cards right back from the discard shoe. But no! They'd rather have fights and keep their 16% take rate. One of the Minnesota casinos "called my bluff" after I did a seminar and casino exhibition In Minneapolis. They picked up the cards in order for a month. Their take rate dropped like a rock from 50%, published in all the MN newspapers, to 6%, exactly what it was in Vegas back in the single deck days. I rest my case. Red faced, they went right back to their normal pick up routine and right back to their normal, but incredible, 50% take rate. Then, in the shuffle, high clumps get shuffled with high clumps and low clumps with low clumps creating longer high and low clumps. The LAST thing casinos want is random cards which only produce a 6% take rate. They would go broke in short order. We use clumping to make both our bet and play decisions. This is a hundred times more accurate than the count and/or basic strategy which fully depends on a 28% dealer break rate which NEVER happens in the real world. What gets my ire up as you so politely put it, isn't you or even card counters. At least they play. What really gets my ire up is the FACT that card counting book authors and instructors aren't stupid. They certainly know all this but its bad for sales. So they deceive their own students for the sake of sales dollars knowing full well that their players will certainly lose playing that way just as they have been doing for 20 Years. To me, that's criminal! I end up picking up the pieces of literally thousands of broken card counters and putting their life back together again. It gets tiresome. Their teachers knowingly did that to them and they did it for money. THAT gets my ire up. Card Counting instructors MUST teach Players Ruin because all of their players are headed straight for it. They want their players to expect it so they condition them for it so that when it happens they don't ask for their money back. They teach both, players ruin and standard deviation. If card counters simply checked with each other they would soon realize that they are ALL on the negative side of standard deviation. It is an instructor created excuse to lose and it works every time. The losing counters never ask for their money back because they are conditioned to believe that they lost because they played wrong, just as happened to you. One card counting student was told in writing, on the internet, look it up, "of course you lost! You played your pairs of 4's wrong". How in God's name could a player be that gullible? You probably won't get a pair of 4's all day and when you do it doesn't matter a hoot how you play them. The real odds are the same! But the player went off happily to lose some more and it never occurred to him to DEMAND his money back! So now you know why my ire gets up when somebody starts spewing card counting lingo on MY channel. The card counter is between a rock and a hard place, his instructor and the dealer. Both are out to see him lose. To me, its discusting and it should be illegal! Players ruin is totally unnecessary and 100% avoidable. Listen to these NBJ pros. You are still suffering from remnants of your brainwasking. Until you get rid of all that crap and open your mind, you will be unteachable. I've been through it all a thousand times. I don't teach players ruin because MY players don't need it. Card counting students absolutely do.

I think you missed it in my post. That's what shocked me. I'm giving you the tip of your life and you want to talk player ruin. Go back and read it again. I told you exactly how to do it. Surrender is a much more complex subject. I wrote a whole chapter on it. I think its in the WCB manual. There is a lot of hidden math in the surrender option and my Chapter on it is the most thorough and most comprehensive study ever undertaken on that subject. But is is far too complex to take up here. Proper Surrender is VERY tricky. Insurance is cut and dry. It is amazing to me how all of these BJ authors never figured it out. They are asleep at the switch. But it is no surprise to me that card counting can't produce a single winner. I challenged every card counting channel on the internet to produce one single winner that's ahead just for one year. Nobody could. I invite them to play and they don't show up. I don't think they have a single writer that actually plays. I never heard of any of Them doing a public BJ exhibition. Why? While they are struggling to keep an exact count they miss what is happening right under their nose. Insurance went right over their heads. Even their big Guru Standford Wong quit and went to work for Jerry Patterson on Craps. Why? I played full time and never saw any of these writers in a casino. Not a single one except Kenny Houston. He couldn't win and that was before shuffle machines were invented. Btw, it wasn't shuffle machines that killed card counting. It was multi deck. Card counters started losing before shuffle machines were invented. The count is the count. What Earthly difference does it make how the cards got shuffled. Might as well blame it on the waitress. Card counting authors say there is no such thing as clumping. That is ridiculous. Haven't they ever even watched a real BJ game? Every street player in the world and every dealer KNOWS the cards are clumped. What does the card counter think he's counting? How else did the count get to -12? You just passed a high card clump. Why weren't you betting? That's when the Player has the advantage. They are hopeless. They are living in a world that passed them by 20 years ago. Those days are gone forever.

Right! I did when I knew. In fact Caesars Vegas was first and they offered to pay more or else....But that gave me the idea to charge them ALL more. I knew on about 40 or 50 of those deals but I know there was a LOT more than that. They had both NBJ and WCB in the dealer room at Turning Stone and all my newsletters. But Turning Stone never ordered direct from me. When Mohegan Sun called they asked me to come in for a job interview teaching NBJ to their dealers. No thanks. I was making about $400,000 a month in those days so I certainly would not do it for a mil. Now had they offered ten mil.....