Guest Posted December 24, 2007 Report Share Posted December 24, 2007 Hi Zenwin and Merry Christmas. This is an excellent question so I'll transfer it over to the Pro BJ forum.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------> To: email@example.com> From: firstname.lastname@example.org> Subject: Doubling Down Questions> Date: Sat, 22 Dec 2007 22:39:47 -0500> > Dear Ellis,> > I am reading your NBJ manual about doubling down at the moment. > There is a sample of: Our hand 5,4 vs. dealer 8, we would double > when highs are running. You explain that very well. I also recall > that I had seen it done before but I don't remember the outcome of > that round.> > As I think about this now, I think there may be difficulties that occur in > making the decision to double on this hand. Here is what I mean:> > Suppose I am at 3rd base as you teach us to play in random cards. > Suppose I have 5,4 vs. dealer 8 up. And unless most > players have pat hands, some of them will hit. (And I presume this is > how I can tell if L or H is running).> > 1). If the first hit card is L, shouldn't I think that the hole > card is also L, after my own last card 4 ? Wouldn't it be dangerous > when I make 19, only to find out the dealer has a 3 under > and hit another H=10 which made her a 21?> > 2). If the first hit card is H, should the hold card be H, or L ? A > bit unknown, yes ? (Let's suppose it is H, a ten, which makes her 18 > to suit this discussion). When the majority players need to hit, > therefore he sees H or ten is running. Since he is the last, being > the 4th or 5th person to hit, would the 10s be running out ?> > I am wondering how this should turn out to be an advantageous > double ? Can you recall or describe a perfect scenario of this > doubling down ?> > I would really appreciate this.> > > Sincerely,> ZenwinHi Zenwin. Well you are already showing excellent examples of the benefits of thinking the game through rather than letting some chart do all your thinking for you.Doubling is the second most important thing we do so it is crucial we get this right. The MOST important thing we do is finding the RIGHT game in the first place. From there doubling really becomes an art form. Let's look at the statistics surrounding doubling first so we can look at exactly what we are trying to do.I was a little surprised to see our heckler over on the public channel mock our claim that the overall hands won rate of Basic Strategy is 43%. I doubt if you bothered to read this idiot. We knew that statistic because we checked it over tens of thousands of hands of actual casino play. I was surprised because many card counters checked our claim and found that it was not only accurate but that even achieving 43% took excellent BJ conditions. Usually they can't even make 43% and in a clumped game on Saturday night, they are lucky to break 30%. But let's call it 43% for our purposes here. Think what this means??? They are going to lose the game unless they can make up the difference by doubling and splitting and insuring. Well, we can leave out insurance since they are taught not to insure. This inspite of the fact that our insurance performace is right at about 50% win rate with 2 to 1 pay out also checked over tens of thousands of hands. BTW, any BJ instructor, worth his salt, knows this 43% statistic. But he doesn't like to mention it because it is very bad for business.We can leave out splitting as well. Our casino statistics show conclusively that the average B.S. player loses money overall on splitting. Most B.S. players are not at all surprised to hear this because their own results had made them very suspectful. The fact is that B.S. players would be better off to never split. Splitting, therefore, is also an art form.So this leaves the job of making up the 7% gap to doubling. That is an impossible task under any circunstances. And remember, that would only get them to break even. They have yet to win! To this end, B.S. includes every possible double in their chart right up to 50/50 odds. We know this because the better, more complete, card counting books include the odds of every play they advise. But these odds were computed using random cards which is almost never the case in the real world. In the real world, clumping decreases their real odds in direct proportion to the degree of clumping. Well, as you know by now ALL bj games contain SOME clumping - even the games WE dub random.So, of course, we looked at tens of thousands of B.S. double results in actual casino play and found that B.S. players break even on their doubles overall. Now, if they play on Fri or Sat night as most of them do, they won't even make the 50/50 double success rate. The 7% gap wins no matter what they do. And including the borderline doubles makes matters worse, not better.For us the task of doubling is vastly different. We know that our overall hands won rate is 48 to 52% in the games we choose to play depending on your NBJ experience level. Thousands of NBJ players have successfully achieved a 50% hands won rate. It is one of the easiest parts we teach. Therefore the task of doubling (and insuring and splitting) is purely to make profits, not to fill the gap. We already did that. Therefore, we can afford to look at doubling far more critically. And we DO!The art of successful doubling depends almost entirely on the accuracy of your Hi- Lo read dependability as well as your dealer hole card read dependability in the game you are playing right now.We KNOW that the more clumped the game is the better the reads. Therefore, the more clumped the game is the better our reads, the better we can double successfully and split and insure.As well, the more random a game is the less we can depend on our reads the less we double or split or insure. This works out perfectly because the more random a game is the easier it is for us to beat it WITHOUT doubling, insuring or splitting. Now, with the real motivation in mind let's take a look at your question. Why and when would we double with a 9 vs an 8 or for that matter with an 8 vs a 7. Why indeed, when you consider that, overall, we double far less than the pure Basic Strategist. Neither of these plays is included in any Basic Strategy chart because Basic Strategy totally ignors clumping. They totally ignore what is running. What is running and what the dealer has in the hole are THEmost important criteria when it comes to doubling. Your doubling success rate depends entirely on YOUR accuracy of these two observations. The weaker your read the less you double. When you have no read at all I strongly recommend that you limit your doubles to the STRONGEST doubles, 11 vs 5 or 6. The more random the cards are the weaker your read and the less you need doubles anyway because the more random the cards are the less we need doubling to win all the way to not needing doubles at all. Now, there are two ways to look at what's running. Recognize that when the cards are random it is useless to look at what's running. We only look at what's running in clumped cards. We can look at it as highs running vs lows or we can look at it as tens running vs lows. Tens works better in 8 deck. Highs works better in 6 deck. Carlos, for instance looks at highs because he plays mostly 6 deck and highs is more accurate in 6 deck. In 6 deck you seldom have tens running but you often have highs running. Tens running is an 8 deck phenomenon. I prefer tens running because I prefer 8 deck. Tens running has less overall accuracy but greater accuracy for insurance purposes. It's easiest to see what we do when you look at it as tens running. Recognize that highs are mostly tens so neither way is wrong. When tens are running I call these two plays having the dealer beat on the board. The dealer gets her second card last so if tens are running she most likely has a ten in the hole. She "might" have a 3 or a 4 but she is most likely to have a ten. Ten is of course more common than any other card even in random cards at 4 out of 13. But in clumped cards, when you read a ten it is even more likely. So you are betting on two things that the dealer has a 10 in the hole and that you will get a ten. If so, you win. Will you ALways be right? No, of course not but BJ isn't about ALWAYS. BJ is about USUALLY. Therefore, when you are getting a good read, and we teach you exactly how to do that, you double whenever you have the dealer beat on the board: an 8 vs a 7, a 9 vs an 8 or 7, a 10 vs a 9, 8 or 7, and an 11 vs a 10,9,8 or 7. These are all even stronger doubles than an 11 vs a 6 or less simply because there are far more ways the dealer can make a winning hand out of a 6 or less than out of a 7 or more. Remember, for the BS player doubling is everything. For you it is only about profits. Use discretion and win or double on everything and lose, whichever you prefer. In your particular case, no you would usually not double a 9 vs an 8 from third because you selected third because the cards are mostly random. However, in spite of the fact that the cards are MOSTLY random, you might easily find youself in a rare clumped section of the shoe where we DO get a good read even though it may be short lived. Here we can often make key NBJ plays. Here, if your read is depedable even though only momentarily and your read tells you to double, yes, you would double. Recognize that our double rate of success is 90% and we'd like to keep it that way. Let the other players double indiscrimanently. Not you, You are there to win. Every BS book tells you "it doesn't matter whether you win or lose as long as you make the correct (their) play". Let's have some truth in our lives. Winning is not the best thing, IT IS THE ONLY THING! That is why you are there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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