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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
kachatz1

Hello, everyone...

Ever notice how casinos seems to be in the most out of the way places? The desert ( Vegas), A Riverboat ( all over), An island ( Bahamas, etc.)...maybe this is not just by accident, but perhaps is meant to weed-out those 1% WINNERS ...

So just to get yourself thinking straight, take 5 minutes and listen to the Band - America's song " A HORSE WITH NO NAME"...yes, you will feel right at home , just like you do playing in your favorite casino...guaranteed if you do this, next time you play you will not be able to get this song out-of-your-head!

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OK, so here I'd like to explore a theory actually espoused by many Bac Dealers, NOT MY ORIGINAL IDEA!!, and I have to admit my experience ( after much resistance) does indeed bear this out...

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Here it is:

Plain-and-simple, the more wins-in-a-row-on-one-side ( PLAYER OR BANKER), when it finally does switch to the other side, it has a higher than average propensity to "switch-back" to the strong side after just a single play in the opposite direction...

EXAMPLE:

5-BANKERS in a row ( or PLAYERS)

Then 1 on PLAYER

SWITCH right back to the BANK for the next play!

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I have had many Dealers call this the "80%" play, though I find my experience to be a bit different...BUT TAKE A LOOK BELOW!!!!!

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If you have a bunch of cards with actual live casino play ( which I do), take a look and see what your experience has been. I have played for more than 10 years, and I have saved the last several hundred cards ( shoes) to actually examine this "myth" and here I have just looked back at the cards in my possession and think I have found an exploitable advantage...

Here are my actual results:

1) Note: TIES do-not-count as an interruption to the progression ( i.e - 2B in a row, then a T, then another B = 3 Bankers in a row)

2) 3-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side ( B or P) = 52.2%

4-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side ( B or P) =54.9%

5-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side ( B or P) = 56.7%

6-or-more-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side (B or P) = 59.4%

3) After 6-in-a-row or more, the % did not seem to be changed much...probably due to the infrequency/low sample size of > 6-in-a-row??

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Sooooooo, does anyone out there in the FORUM have a bunch of live-casino cards they could look at to see what their experience has been??

I was very excited to see this myself, and I am anxious to see if this is an exploitable advantage we can use or not?

I know it does not seem possible, and in many shoes it does not play out this way, but take a look yourself and let us all know what you have experienced...Remember I do not count the TIES in a progression...ALSO, I HAVE NOT INCLUDED MULTIPLE OCCURRENCES ON A SINGLE SIDE AT THE END OF A SHOE...

Call me or email if questions...

kachatz1

kachatz@treomanagement.com

850-687-3128

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OK, so I grabbed 10 shoes off the top of the pile and counted them up.

3's Win 19 Lose 22

4's Win 12 Lose 7

5's Win 6 Lose 1

6+ Win 0 Lose 4

It's obviously too small of a sample to make a decision but an interesting start for sure.

I'll watch and try to keep track of them in future shoes as a side note, just to watch the trend.

MVS

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
kachatz1

Thanks...

Played in Biloxi the other day with Bill and again this played out to be at a level greater than the normal odds, especially after a 4-or-more-in-a-row on one side...

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