# The 4S Manual by Ellis

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First, please to not post on this manual. Somebody start a 4s Manual Questions thread and we can ask all questions and make all comments there.

I will go back and fill in the preamble to this manual later but first we need to go right to basics for several of the new members.

The 4s manual will start with System 40 because a player can do well in Baccarat with System 40 only once he has all 4 versions down pat. But Iâ€™ve encountered problems attempting to teach System 40 because not everyone has the prerequisite basics down pat yet. Lets start there and I will give you some drills to go through to get these basics down pat.

System 40 simply bets opposites until it runs into problems and then strategically goes to repeats to get out of trouble. So 40 is primarily a chop system because it primarily bets opposites.

So the first thing you need to know is what an opposite is and what a repeat is. But even before that we need to know how WE construct our score card so everyone is on the same page.

Our score card is arranged in 4 columns of 20 plays each. Each col has at least 4 lanes with the headings: Play#, Player, Bank, Score which we shorten to # P B S. But leave an extra lane or 2 between B and S so that you have lanes available for our various counts. As the game is played we enter our bets in the appropriate column and CIRCLE the side that won. So when we talk about Circles that is what we are talking about. Always put P first because P gets dealt first. We have score card blanks you can download - just ask.

An Opposite is when the opposite side wins. (The side opposite the last circle)

A Repeat is when the same side wins again. It â€œrepeatedâ€.

The first play of the game is neither because we donâ€™t know what it followed.

When we bet Opposites (System 40) we simply bet on the opposite side of the prior circle.

When we bet repeats we bet on the SAME side as the prior circle.

You need to know this thoroughly before you can learn to play Baccarat.

OK, hereâ€™s a drill to get this down pat and automatic.

Take any score card with the circles already filled in and perform a C/S count. A C/S or CS count is the exact same thing as an O/R or OR count. CS stands for Chop vs. Streak and OR stands for Opposites vs., Repeats. For the purpose of this manual Iâ€™ll always use OR count to avoid confusion.

OK, starting at play 2 count an Opposite as +1 and a Repeat as -1 and enter your running OR count in a spare lane on your card.

Keep doing this until you can do it in your head and only enter the running count at the bottom of each col. Practice until you can count a shoe in a matter of seconds and get the column counts right every time. BTW, I still enter the col OR counts on every shoe I play in the casino.

OK, why are we doing this? Because the first thing you need to know about a shoe to play 4S is: is the shoe streaky (-count) or choppy (+count). BTW OR counts that go beyond + or - 8 we call â€œsuper streak (-) or super chop (+). But that is what you need to know to make your first system decision.

I want you so proficient that you can look at a Tote Board across the isle and W/O breaking stride, tell me if that table is streaky or choppy or neutral.

Neutral is when the OR count hovers 0 and doesnâ€™t go far in either direction. No long straight or ZZ (Zigzag) runs BPBPBPB etc.

OK, two things to recognize here:

1.) On avg, shoes have just as many opposites as repeats. So we call OR a balanced count.

2.) Casinos prefer Neutral shoes because they make the most money for the casino. The streak players lose because the shoe is NOT streaky. The chop players lose because the shoe is not choppy.

That is why we like to â€œnet betâ€ in such shoes. Net betting does best in â€œlow OR Disparityâ€ (Neutral) shoes. So we not only beat those shoes, we excel in them and we are usually the ONLY winners at the table in neutral shoes. And if we did it right we usually win a lot! The casino is left scratching their head. â€œShit Boss, I did everything right!â€

OK, get the OR count down pat and then we will go from there.

Oh, letâ€™s go over how we post a shoe with our shortcut method:

We do this in columns of 20 plays.

A PPP BB P BBBB P BBB PPP B PP becomes simply

P 321413312 Get it?

Start each col with a P or B, whichever headed that col.

Shoes posted this way are very easy to transcribe. Once you are proficient at this you can transcribe any shoe correctly in seconds only looking at the shoe 6 or 7 times. Itâ€™s like telephone numbers. They stay in your head for a few seconds.

OK, enough for now. Iâ€™ll try to add a little more to this manual most every day. But donâ€™t forget, ask your questions on the 4S Questions thread, not on the manual.

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System 40 Discussion:

We are going to start the manual with System 40 because one of the 4 ways of playing System 40 will beat nearly every shoe there is. We could call System 40 "4s Level 1".

I don't like the term "base system" because that would imply that we always start with Sys 40. It is foolish to sit down to a table you know nothing about but sometimes unavoidable. All we need to know about a table to determine which version of 40 to play is: Is the table basically choppy, streaky, or Neutral? A glance at the tote board should tell us. If there are no tote boards, use another player's score card. Lacking that, sit down but don't bet. Say, "I'll start next shoe". But, in reality you can start as soon as you have identified the shoe type as Choppy (+OR count favoring Opposites.)

Streaky (- OR count favoring Repeats)

Neutral (The OR count hovers 0 with Opposites and Repeats about equal.)

System 40 is a near perfect baccarat system because it adjusts to conform to nearly any shoe type. It always starts by betting opposites but recognize that we can't just sit there betting Opposites all the time. Half of all shoes are Repeat favorable. So if we only bet Opposites we would only win the half of the shoes that favor Opposites. So we MUST go on the run at some point or stop betting against a run at some point.

So when do we go on the run and when to we get off the run and go back to opposites. This is where skill and Baccarat knowledge come into play. This is what separates the winners from the losers.

We MUST lose to something. But we have a choice. We lose to whatever event we go on the run after. Our choices are 2s, 3s or 4s. We go on the run (OTR) after whichever of those 3 events is occurring the least relative to its normal frequency of occurrence.

2s normally occur once every 8 plays

3s normally occur once every 16 plays and

4s normally occur once every 32 plays

2s, 3s and 4s are all called events along with 1's, 5's and so forth but here, we are only interested in 2s, 3s and 4s. Recognize that whichever of those 3 events we go OTR after we call that event our culprit because that is the event we lose to.

Also recognize that for all events occurring below normal we must have equal events occurring above normal.

Lets take 3s for instance. OK 3s are least LC or Least Common so we make 3's culprit and go OTR after every 3 in a row. Well if the 3 stays at 3 we lose our OTR bet but if the 3 goes to 4 we win our OTR bet. Once we make the LC event culprit the game is no longer 50/50. It swings to our advantage. If LC stays LC we win the game plain and simple. Fortunately LC USUALLY stays LC but if it changes, we change right with it.

The important thing here is to NEVER be found betting against the MOST common event. That's how you lose.

We want to go OTR on the LC event so that we lose to the LC event in order to win on the MC (most common) events. That is how you win the shoe.

Example: We determine 3s are LC so we bet OTR On every 3 betting the 3s will go to 4 because if 3s are LC most 3s are going to 4. Now we have a mathematical advantage in a game that is supposed to have no mathematical advantage. Get it?

OK now we can talk about how we know which event is LC in the game we are playing right now. THAT is how you beat Baccarat

Edited by ECD
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When you are at home practicing, the shoe at hand is the only thing you have to go by.

But in a casino you have prior shoes, tote boards and or other players score cards.

Yes, we want to know what the shoe at hand is doing. But more importantly we want to know what the table is doing. We don't want to play "in the blind". That is what the other players do - and they lose.

We want to know the history of the current shoe but we would also like to know the history of the prior shoe.

When I say history, I'm only talking about was it Streaky Choppy or Neutral.

I always note the color of the shoe I'm playing on the top of my card: red or Blue. Usually they are the same. But not always. Some casinos prep and shuffle the red shoe differently from the blue shoe. They figure that different shoe types will catch the players unaware. This usually works, for the other players but, hopfully, not us. Know what both shoe colors are doing from an OR standpoint. If you don't know before you start, make sure you know after you start.

Tote boards:

Most tote boards are set up like your score card up side down. This makes no difference to your count. Your OR count is the same regardless if the shoe is right side up or up side down. Learn to perform your OR count on tote boards as well as your score card. I want you so adept at this that you can declare a table choppy, streaky or neutral by glancing at the tote board W/O breaking stride down the isle.

Which table do we select?

A bias is when a table favors someting. First, we want the chopiest or the streakiest table we can find. If you always spend a little time selecting the best table BEFORE you sit down you will forever improve your results.

If you only know System 40, you are looking for the chopiest (highest + count) you can find. But sometimes the whole casino is streaky. Remember, System 40 with 2's culprit handles streaky shoes quite well. Maybe not as good as our streak systems RD1 and F2,3 but good enough if System 40 is the only system you know. Just be sure you know all four ways of playing system 40 - which will be coming up shortly. Also note here that System 40 with twos culprit is exactly the same as TB4L (Time Before Last) and TB4L is a streak system that does not like 2s. So to play this way we want to see 2s below normal. They usually are in streaky shoes but not always.

The system that likes 2s the most is OTB4L but in strealy shoes with high 2s, your best choices are RD1 first and F3 second. We will cover all this matching systems to shoe types more thoroughly a little later with a table of best system for each shoe type. But lets get System 40 down pat first.

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I'm hoping that by now everyone can accurately perform an OR count. That comes first. The OR count tells us the basic system type to start with.

A + OR count means we start with a chop system. In 4S System 40 is our ONLY chop system so a + OR count means we start with some chop version of System 40. Either 43 or 44 because 42 is the streak version of 40.

A - OR count means we start with one of our two streak systems. This will usually be RD1, 2 or 3 but in low twos or low 3s we can start with F2 or F3 respectively.

In a Neutral OR count (hovering 0) we can start with System 40N or OTB4L.

We will certainly be going over the rules of each version of each system and what tells us which version to use in far greater detail as we progress.

Right now, in preparing the new guys for System 40, I'd like you to do one more drill.

I'd like you to play several shoes AT HOME just betting opposites. This means that starting at Play #2 with a 1 bet just keep betting opposites throughout the entire shoe.

Use an U1D2 M2 progression. That is up 1 when you lose, down 2 when you win except don't go below 1 and M2 means always bet 2 after 1 regardless whether the 1 wins or loses.

The purpose of this drill is twofold. First it gives you practice at the normal betting routine of System 40. All I need teach you is one more step, when to go OTR (on the run). We'll do that AFTER this drill

You will win slightly more than half your shoes which should demonstrate why we MUST go OTR at some point to have a winning system. Playing Opposites only you will find that you win all of your + count shoes. Which reminds me, Keep an OR count in these practice shoes. You will also likely win your Neutral shoes. But you will lose the shoes with a significant - count which is about 45% of all shoes. This should demonstrate to you why we must go OTR at some point or at least stop betting against straight runs at some point. It will also demonstrate to you that System 40 basically bets AGAINST straight runs.

Once you can do that routine smoothly, you are ready for System 40. Have a go at it and ask any questions you come up with in the questions thread.

OH, I'm also hoping to demonstrate that there are some shoes that are SO choppy that your best bet is to never go OTR but simply stick to betting opposites until you are faced with a 4 or 5 in a row. But these runs can be so rare in a super chop shoe that your best option is to simply stop betting until the run ends and then continue with opposites. We have been seeing a lote of such shoes at Bet Phoenix lately which has caused much excitement because they are so easy for an experienced BTC student to beat! Such shoes can also be common with new cards in the morning at many casinos. And also with casinos using factory preshuffled cards. I'll be teahing you these lucrative tricks of the trade as we move along. Stay tuned!

Edited by ECD
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System 40 shoe start tips:

Where, when and how we start depends on how much we know about the table/shoe we are sitting down to. The more professional we are the more we know about the shoe and the better we will do overall.

There are two things we want to know about a shoe preferably before we sit down or as soon as possible after we sit down:

1. Is the shoe basically Choppy (+OR count), Streaky (- OR count) and roughly to what degree? Or is the OR hovering 0 (Neutral).

2. What is the LC (Least Common) event between 2s, 3s and 4s?

If we must sit down before we know it is best not to bet at all or, if necessary, flat bet at 1 until we know.

If we have a definite Chop, Streak or Neutral signal, we can start right away and worry about LC later but we want to determine LC as soon as possible. Again, its best to know before you sit down.

Recognize that there are 3 bias sources: Casino biases, table, biases and shoe biases.

Casino biases are when the whole casino is favoring Chop or favoring Streak or favoring Neutral. These can occur anytime but are most common with new cards in the morning right after the card prep. It's good to KNOW the casino you are playing. Recognize that most casinos don't start up all their tables at the same time.

A table bias is when a table is consistently favoring either Streak, Chop or Neutral. Sometimes the blue shoe will be favoring one thing and the red shoe another. That is Good information.

War Story: When I played with some of you in Vegas, I canvased the 16 tables at Gold Coast just before we all met there for the dinner reception. Table one had the strongest bias with extreme Chop. After dinner, I noted that table one STILL displayed an extreme chop bias. So I selected that table mid shoe. We KILLED that shoe losing only 3 hands. Our trip was off to a very good start. Always know what is going on. It pays to be observant.

I'm going to assume, at this point, that 40 is the only system you know but I'll cover starting tips for each of the other systems under their headings later.

Streak: We play 42 - 2s are culprit.

Chop: we play 43 if 3s are LC or 44 if 4s are LC.

Neutral: we play 40N

Lets assume its choppy. If I don't already know what is LC, which is often the case, I start with 44 until I can make a determination. Recognize that I'm going to win all 1's, 2s and 3s. (87% of all events) Very often there are no 4s (one every 32 plays) in the first column. So I'm often way up while making my LC judgement with my SAP chart. WE will go over SAP charts shortly. What is the worst that could happen? I lose 10 units (1234) on an early 4 but I'm usually up that much or more anyway and you can make a pretty good LC judgement before that anyway. (Tricks of the trade)

But recognize that you are at your most vulnerable until you make a sound LC judgement.

BTW, I just played a very tough System 40 shoe. It ended with a -2 OR count and the LC changed 3 times during the shoe (very unfavorable). I played a 23456 prog U1D2 M3 B2 and scored +41 with no draw downs in spite of the 8 in a row. System 40 can overcome ALMOST all odds when played correctly.

Tip: Once you know that you are at a favorable table you are best off to switch from a 12345 prog to a 23456 prog. because this DECREASES your risk while increasing your win. You would think this would increase your risk because it increases your avg bet size. Right BUT it decreases the slope of your prog. Slope = risk. In the 12345 prog your 5th bet is 5 times your base bet. But in the 23456 prog your 5th bet is only 3 times your base bet. Now you would think you 'd have to win your 2 bet most of the time for the 23456 to work out. Ha, NO! I actually lost the 2 bet 3 more times than I won it. Yet my score went from +25 with the 12345 prog to +41 with the 23456 prog. Math is funny that way!

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System 40 rules:

1. Starting at play 2 (at the earliest) bet an U1D2 M2 prog on opposites until the LC appears.

2. When the LC appears, bet OTR (on the run) by betting right under the LC event

3. If you lose your initial OTR bet go right back to opposites.

4. If you win your OTR bet:

A. 42 - Stay OTR until you lose then go right back to opposites with a 1 bet

B. 43 - Stay OTR for 2 winning bets *

C. 44 - Stay OTR for 1 winning bet (or one losing bet)

* If you note that you are usually losing your 2nd OTR bet, STOP attempting it and only go for 1 winning bet

Important: In an extreme chop situation where you are seeing very few straight runs it is best to NOT go OTR at all. Instead, after losing 3 Opposite bets (44) wait for the run to end before continuing with Opposite bets where you left off. This is usually your strongest System 40 situation.

Important: When you come off an ongoing run after 1 or 2 winning OTR bets and lose your first Opposite bet it is best to wait until the run ends before continuing. Another option if you are seeing long runs is to go back on the run and go off, on, off, on until the run ends. Remember if you are seeing lots of runs the shoe is streaky so you make 2s culprit and stay on all runs until you lose. At that point its best to go back to a 1 bet unless you are well ahead.

Again:

42 = 2s LC, 2s culprit = Streaky = Stay on all runs until you lose.

43 = 3s LC, 3s culprit

44 = 4s LC, 4s culprit

Note: You MUST lose to something. So the object is to lose to the LEAST common event so that you lose the LEAST often.

Important: As soon as you can learn to always lose to LC and only LC you are already a winning player.

Heres why:

The average player loses half the time and his biggest losses are about equivalent to his biggest wins. His biggest losses occur when he is unlucky enough to be betting against the MC (Most Common) event.

But, when YOU are always making the LC event culprit, you are therefore NEVER betting against the MC event so you Never suffer these catastrophic losses. Therefore, on average, you win! It's simple 4th grade math. Remember when you studied Averaging for the fist time? That is what we are taking advantage of - simple 4th grade math. Hmmm, and you thought I was a genius.

OK, now, try a few shoes and lets hear your questions.

Edited by ECD
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System 40N:

Don't attempt this until you have regular System 40 down pat.

First: When do we deploy this?

1. When the OR count can't seem to make up its mind between + and -. It keeps crossing 0.

2. When regular System 40 keeps winning close to half its bets.

Play regular system 40 in black or blue pen with either prog 12345 or 23456

Enter the SAME prog exactly opposite your 40 prog both U1D2 M2 or both U1D2 M3 B2 in red pen.

When 40 wins an OTR bet it alternates OFF the run, on the run, off, on until the run ends, then back to normal. The opposite prog does the opposite.

When either prog loses 3 bets in a row it stops betting until it has a paper win while the other prog continues "unopposed".

You have two opposite entries each play. DON"T bet both sides. Subtract the low entry from the high entry and only bet the difference on the table. Bet it on the side of the higher entry. When both entries are the same, you have no table bet that hand.

While you choose LC the same way as before, try this first with 2s LC until you get it down pat.

I'm sure there will be a couple of bugs in this at first so lets hear your comments and questions.

Advantage: Your actual table bets are MUCH lower but your wins can go higher. Commission is also lower.

Note: This is very similar to OR, net betting Opposites vs Repeats, except for you OTR bets.

Give this a try AFTER you get Basic 40 down pat.

Next, we'll do SAP charting which confirms your LC. It's not as hard as you imagine.

Beginners: Remember, you can always opt out of 40N to start by only choosing Coppy or Streaky tables to begin with. Preferably Choppy. If this is too much for you, I'll also be covering OTB4L which is another great way to handle Neutral shoes and far simpler.

Everybody: It pays to find the strongest most dependable bias in the casino to begin with.

Edited by ECD
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SAP Charting for System 40:

Sap charting for 4S, including System 40, purposes is slightly different from SAP charting to Play SAP.

First, if you haven't already, make a copy of the score card PJ kindly posted on page 3 of the Questions thread. He posted a link right below the score card.

OK, those 1234s you see entered every 4 plays are for making you SAP entries. The 1s represent 1 in a rows. The 2 is for 2 in a rows, etc.

Recognize that you can't merely count the quantity of each event thus far because 1s would always be highest MS and 4s would always be LC. That would do us no good.

Here is what you do:

Under the 1's you enter the actual number of confirmed 1's thus far.

By "confirmed" I mean the next play has confirmed that a 1 in a row is a 1 in arow and did not go to 2.

Every opposite confirms the length of the last event. So you can fill in your SAP chart retroactively after every opposite. That way only one entry will change each time you fill in your chart line numbers.

OK, under the 1 headings enter the actual number of 1's thus far.

Under the 2 headings enter 2 Xs the actual number of 2s thus far.

Under the 3 headings enter 4 Xs the actual number of 3s thus far.

Under the 4 headings enter 8 Xs the actual number of 4s thus far.

Now your entries on any line are directly comparable. Which ever heading has the lowest entry, THAT event is LC, Culprit.

Now for System 40 we are only interested in the lowest entry among 2s, 3s and 4s because we never use 1s as LC. But fill the 1 headings in anyway because they will provide a purpose in the other systems.

Recognize that the fewer times LC changes within a shoe, the better we do.

Also recognize that the greater the disparity (difference) between our LC entry vs the other event entries the higher we will score. So we like LC to be LC by a lot.

When two entries are tied for LC make the longer one LC - Culprit.

When all entries are tied we have no advantage but we usually win anyway or close to it because there is no MC to hurt us. - No disadvantage.

OK, if 2s are LC we are betting OTR under every 2. We are betting 2s will go to 3 because most have.

if 3s are LC we are betting OTR directly under all 3s.

The same for 4s.

OK, if you can do this right, you are already a winning player. That puts you in the prestegious 1% group!

Will you win every shoe? Sometimes, but when you lose, you won't lose a lot.

You can judge the quality of a table or shoe by the disparity and consistency of LC. If you are seeing little or no disparity or consistency its a good idea to change tables or quit for the session.

Please recognize that the whole LC concept was developed right here at BTC by Andrea and me. It is taught nowhere else. Yet it separates the winners from the losers. Once you deploy LC, you are no longer guessing. You are playing with a purpose and an edge. The greater the LC disparity, the greater your edge. When the other event(s) start catching up to your LC start looking for a place to quit after a winning bet. You are losing your edge.

After you play this a few times it will all start making sense to you. The whole idea is you MUST lose to something so choose to lose to whatever is happening the least.

OK, you sharpies, please check me out for any mistakes.

I'll get a shoe posted deploying LC with System 40 as soon as possible.

Edited by ECD
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System 40 progression selection:

1. No bet

2. Flat bet

3. U1D2 M2 but go back to 1 with your first OTR bet

4. U1D2 M2 throughout

5. U1D2 M3 B2 throughout

My first remark here HAS to be this:

I always start System 40 playing U1D2 M2 with a 1 bet at play 2. BUT I have ALWAYS already qualified the table and the shoe color as Choppy (+OR count) FIRST.

You should do the same whenever possible.

If you have no opportunity to do so it is best to not bet at all until you know the directon of the OR count as +, - or Neutral.

Now, as soon as I know the shoe is going well I switch from a 12345 prog U1D2 M2 to a 23456 prog U1D2 M3 B2 because the 23456 prog can make more money with less risk in a good + count shoe. ALL +count shoes are good.

I'm getting an 80 play +5 final count shoe posted both ways so you can see the difference.

But what if you are unsure?

Go to the 3rd option above:

Progression Cash Management:

We will devote a whole chapter to cash mgt. later But for now, note this:

In the 12345 prog I almost never make a 6 bet W/O waiting for a paper win first. Even then, I may well make another 5 bet instead of a 6. (Capping at 5)

Likewise in the 23456 prog I'll wait for a paper win before making a 7 bet which often becomes another 6 bet.

It just depends on how much I'm ahead. If I'm not ahead at all, I'll likely quit the table right there and either find a better game or quit the session.

One other thing from a cash Mgt. standpoint. Note in the 23456 version of the sample game I went back to basing at 1. OK I can see the shoe is about to end. I can either quit, which would have been the better judgement in the sample shoe, or I can base at 1 to avoid the specter of ending the shoe in a runaway 23456 prog. I should have quit.

Much more on Cash Mgt later.

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Edited by ECD

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The RD1 Chapter

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RD1 Discussion:

You know, I originated System 40 about 15 years ago. But we have only just recently perfected Sytem 40 by combining it with SAP charting which I originated about 4 years ago. I think we have now perfected system 40 very close to perfection. The playing of System 40 by many players now might bring up a tweak or two but we are pretty darn close to completely fine tuned.

I originated RD1 what, maybe three years ago. The only option to it is RDN but I don't believe RD N is better, just a trade off. I'm not totally happy with either version. But I AM happy with where System 40 has gone.

Then I noted that played a certain way RD1 can be the exact opposite of System 40. It further occurs to me that if we have System 40 fully tweaked would't the exact same tweaking also work on its exact opposite? I see no reason why not.

System 40 as basically a chop system has its pitfall - runs following runs. RD1 Loves that scenario. But RD 1 does not like 1's either sporadic or ZZ while System 40 loves them. Each system likes precisly what the other dislikes, especially if each are played as exact opposites. So the two are perfect to team up with each other especially if both are guided by a SAP chart. I think we can do exactly that.

Let me give you a good example of how one likes what the other dislikes:

Draw out 12 circles of a shoe starting with P444.

Play System 40 by the posted rules.

OK we start with 4s culprit at play 2 with a 1 bet on Bank.

We lose our 123 on P and switch to P and lose our 45.

Now, since the count is -3 we switch to 2s culprit and win our 64 on B but lose our 23 on B and win our 42 on P. Following our System 40 rules perfectly the best we can do is a -4.

Now play the same 12 circles with RD1 with the rule switch to opposites after 2 Repeat losses.

OK starting at play 2 again we win our 121 on P and lose our 2 on P, win our 312 on B and lose our 1 on B and win our 212 on P scoring +12. That is a 16 unit swing to the good in only 11 bets.

Do you see why these two systems are made for each other and why its better to play them as exact opposites?

OK, let's study RD from that standpoint. See how I called it RD? That is because its neither RD1 nor RD N. It's something brand new, RD.

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• 2 weeks later...

In the system 40 manuel why did they not use 42,43,44 using the culprit on the Progression Cash Management Page 12 &13?? Would some what show a sample shoe on how to play 4S.

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