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The NOR 3rd bet rule for Mode selection.


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I can see from your posts that many of you are not getting this right. Too many of you are saying that you play a Mode until your OTR bet loses. That isn't right at all.

You play a Mode until your 3rd bet loses regardless whether it was OTR or not.

Your 3rd bet is the bet you make after TWO lost bets in a row regardless if it is a 3 bet or a 1 bet or even a 2 bet or 0 bet for that matter. Your 3rd bet after two losses.

If your 3rd bet loses you change Modes regardless of which Mode you were in.

Take the shoe Keith just posted:

He started in Mode 3 and stayed in Mode 3 because his OTR bet always won. Wrong! He lost his third bet so he should have switched to Mode 2. Had he done that he would have won ALL of his 3 bets rather than losing all of them forcing 4 bets. THAT is the purpose of the rule - to keep 4 bets to a minimum. Had he played the 3rd bet rule correctly he would have had NO bets higher than 3.

Many of you are making that same mistake.

Now, it didn't happen in his shoe but if the 3rd bet rule is wrong 2 or 3 times starting out, you are best off to stay in Mode 2 and play a 12345 prog on your OTR bets.

Also you are best off to start in Mode 2 unless the shoe has already determined the Mode. This also helps to reduce bets higher than 3 and sometimes eliminate them altogether.

It is critically important that you understand this 3rd bet rule correctly. It is probably the most important rule in NOR.

Also, I don't mean to be picking on Keith but the shoe he posted happened to be the perfect example of the power of the 3rd bet rule.

Once he correctly decided on OTB4L and correctly decided to stay on all straight runs the 3rd bet rule alone would have kept his highest bet at 3 instead of 6 and his U1D1 betting would then have scored +21 instead of +6 or whatever it was.

I would think that would drive the whole point of the 3rd bet rule home for everyone.

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I can see from your posts that many of you are not getting this right. Too many of you are saying that you play a Mode until your OTR bet loses. That isn't right at all.

You play a Mode until your 3rd bet loses regardless whether it was OTR or not.

Your 3rd bet is the bet you make after TWO lost bets in a row regardless if it is a 3 bet or a 1 bet or even a 2 bet or 0 bet for that matter. Your 3rd bet after two losses.

If your 3rd bet loses you change Modes regardless of which Mode you were in.

Take the shoe Keith just posted:

He started in Mode 3 and stayed in Mode 3 because his OTR bet always won. Wrong! He lost his third bet so he should have switched to Mode 2. Had he done that he would have won ALL of his 3 bets rather than losing all of them forcing 4 bets. THAT is the purpose of the rule - to keep 4 bets to a minimum. Had he played the 3rd bet rule correctly he would have had NO bets higher than 3.

Many of you are making that same mistake.

Now, it didn't happen in his shoe but if the 3rd bet rule is wrong 2 or 3 times starting out, you are best off to stay in Mode 2 and play a 12345 prog on your OTR bets.

Also you are best off to start in Mode 2 unless the shoe has already determined the Mode. This also helps to reduce bets higher than 3 and sometimes eliminate them altogether.

It is critically important that you understand this 3rd bet rule correctly. It is probably the most important rule in NOR.

Also, I don't mean to be picking on Keith but the shoe he posted happened to be the perfect example of the power of the 3rd bet rule.

Once he correctly decided on OTB4L and correctly decided to stay on all straight runs the 3rd bet rule alone would have kept his highest bet at 3 instead of 6 and his U1D1 betting would then have scored +21 instead of +6 or whatever it was.

I would think that would drive the whole point of the 3rd bet rule home for everyone.

Oops.. I'm a bit confused now.. how does one stay in Mode 3 then? since in Mode 3, there's gonna be a 4th Bet.. so 3rd Bet will always lose in mode 3? Sorry, quite confused atm :(

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Oops.. I'm a bit confused now.. how does one stay in Mode 3 then? since in Mode 3, there's gonna be a 4th Bet.. so 3rd Bet will always lose in mode 3? Sorry, quite confused atm :(

Exactly! Which means you should have played Mode 2. So now, you do. The 3rd bet will win half the time in Mode 3. It just isn't OTR. How can you say the 3rd bet always loses in Mode 3? Think about it. You certainly do not make a 4 bet in Mode 3 if your 3 bet won.

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Exactly! Which means you should have played Mode 2. So now, you do. The 3rd bet will win half the time in Mode 3. It just isn't OTR. How can you say the 3rd bet always loses in Mode 3? Think about it. You certainly do not make a 4 bet in Mode 3 if your 3 bet won.

Ok.. So lets say we are in mode 3 at the moment, and we just lost the 3rd Bet , We still proceed with the 4th Bet (4 Units)? or After the the 4th Bet we switch to Mode 2?

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Ok.. So lets say we are in mode 3 at the moment, and we just lost the 3rd Bet , We still proceed with the 4th Bet (4 Units)? or After the the 4th Bet we switch to Mode 2?

In your example, that 4th bet would be OTR. If that OTR bet would have won last time a 4th bet came up, I would go ahead and make the 4 unit OTR bet. If it lost previously, or had not yet come up, I would go 1 unit OTR. I have really improved my results since adopting procedures to minimize the frequency of 4 unit bets. Because your 3rd bet lost in Mode 3, you now switch to Mode 2.

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In your example, that 4th bet would be OTR. If that OTR bet would have won last time a 4th bet came up, I would go ahead and make the 4 unit OTR bet. If it lost previously, or had not yet come up, I would go 1 unit OTR. I have really improved my results since adopting procedures to minimize the frequency of 4 unit bets. Because your 3rd bet lost in Mode 3, you now switch to Mode 2.

Ok, I think I got it. So Even If we win the OTR bet (4th Bet) with a 4 unit bet, we still switch to Mode 2 and continue from there right?

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In your example, that 4th bet would be OTR. If that OTR bet would have won last time a 4th bet came up, I would go ahead and make the 4 unit OTR bet. If it lost previously, or had not yet come up, I would go 1 unit OTR. I have really improved my results since adopting procedures to minimize the frequency of 4 unit bets. Because your 3rd bet lost in Mode 3, you now switch to Mode 2.

Right, a perfect answer!

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When playing mode 2,and lose the 3rd bet,do I make a 4th bet or go back to a 1 bet? Thanks

You go back to 1. You lost your OTR bet so the run is over, so you start over with a FIRST bet of 1 unit. There are no 4 bets in Mode 2 unless you are playing the 234 or 345.

BTW, had Keith gone to the 234/345 at the correct plays (# 8 and 11) he would have made +35 in a 36 play shoe! Remember, once you have made the decision, you go to the 234 after a winning 2 and then the 345 after a winning 3.

+35 in a 36 play shoe is about as good as it gets!

He correctly stayed on the runs because he was seeing too many 6 or mores in the prior shoes. But otherwise the shoes were very choppy. That is why that particular circumstance is in your manual. W/O the 6 and 9, this was a +6 OR count shoe in only 21 plays. Very choppy but with long runs just as he called it and just as he described to me over the phone.

S40 would also do OK in this shoe but he was seeing too many 3s for S40. OTB4L loves 3s but they force S40 into Mode 3.

This also demonstrates how the prior shoes can help you make the correct decisions especially in a casino with only one Bac table open.

We had already noted in that casino that whatever the table is doing it keeps doing it shoe after shoe. And Keith had noted that this was still the case.

But I figured if Keith didn't know when to go from M3 to M2 probably many members didn't know either. And that seems to have been the case and the purpose of this thread.

Betya he knows NOW! Hopefully you all do too.

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