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starting to believe in clumping


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Yesterday as everyday I went to the casino, in fact it was yesterday and in the early hours of today. After my daily session of Baccarat, I was curious about all BJ items commented here in forum so I decided to take a look into BJ tables. The casino had 4 BJ tables with 5 or 6 players in each table, it was around 2 a.m. so 7 or 8 hours of playing.

It was amazing how many times the dealers got 20 or 21 on their dealt cards (4 thru 5 dealt cards) and players got between 17 or 18 on their dealt cards (2 thru 3 dealt cards or player broke). Practically the dealers killed all of them and as soon as a player was killed then he or she bought more chips... what a waste of money.

While I was watching this destruction then I was thinking if we have any chance of win. I was about to sit but finally I decided to go home because the dealer seemed so lucky. I went home a little disappointed and thinking if it is the truth that this game is beatable if so then it would need too many hours of practice.

Well today I will take a look at the BJ tables again.

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If you do not believe in clumping, go to AC on a Sat. night and walk down a row of blackjack tables and you will see either a table full of 10's or a table full of lows Dealer break ratio's of less than 10% You cannot possibly believe these cards are random. If you believe these to be random, then I know where you can buy the Brooklyn bridge or would you prefer the Eiffel Tower?

"If you don't think too good, don't think too much!!"

-----------------------

John

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Yesterday as everyday I went to the casino, in fact it was yesterday and in the early hours of today. After my daily session of Baccarat, I was curious about all BJ items commented here in forum so I decided to take a look into BJ tables. The casino had 4 BJ tables with 5 or 6 players in each table, it was around 2 a.m. so 7 or 8 hours of playing.

It was amazing how many times the dealers got 20 or 21 on their dealt cards (4 thru 5 dealt cards) and players got between 17 or 18 on their dealt cards (2 thru 3 dealt cards or player broke). Practically the dealers killed all of them and as soon as a player was killed then he or she bought more chips... what a waste of money.

While I was watching this destruction then I was thinking if we have any chance of win. I was about to sit but finally I decided to go home because the dealer seemed so lucky. I went home a little disappointed and thinking if it is the truth that this game is beatable if so then it would need too many hours of practice.

Well today I will take a look at the BJ tables again.

Yep, in a clumped game which is most of the time most people play, the impossible just keeps on happening. The dealer will often go an entire shoe W/O breaking and she hits so many 5 and 6 card 21s that you are nervous as hell sitting there with a 20.

One lesson you can learn from your experience is NEVER EVER buy in again at the same table. That is purely suicidal.

On the bright side is that 6 deck seldom becomes clumped to the point of unplayable. But 8 deck will always become unplayable if played long enough. Eventually clumping reaches a saturation point and the cards simply can't clump any further. That is when you commonly see 20 tens in a row come out of the dealer shoe. Think about the odds against that. They are far far greater than 20 Banks in a row yet we commonly see 20 tens but never 20 banks.

Clumping is so obvious that arguing about its existence is like arguing the sky is blue. But clumping spoils the whole idea of card counting so the counting gurus must live a lie and never admit to it. Their players live in a make believe world of denial. But clumping is precisely why the counting forums have NEVER been able to produce a single year end BJ winniner out of thousands of counters. Counting is like going to war pretending bullets don't exist.

But clumping is definitely beatable as long as it has not reached saturation. And that presents a very big winning window.

NBJ First Base functions on clumping. It takes the advantage away from the dealer and hands it to you on a silver platter. In Taj 1 and 2 I was playing NBJ First Base against 8 deck clumped cards. I think Taj 1 and 2 were both a world BJ time record for getting to $10,000 profit W/O betting over $200. I can't do it nearly that fast with random cards. At Flamingo I was playing new, random cards at $1000 profit every 12 minutes. At Taj I was playing at a rate of $1000 won every 3 minutes.

But Ellis, it's too hard. Bullshit!

Yes, it takes years to develop such systems especially when NOBODY went before you and you are defying all current knowledge. But it does NOT take years to learn 2 systems when all the work has already been done for you:

NBJ First Base - for clumped cards:

Two bet sizes: I use 1 and 2. Bet high when the last round ended high and low when it ended low. In low cards play Dealer Strategy and in high cards play Basic Strategy. How hard could that be?

NBJ Third Base - for random (new) cards:

Sit at 3rd base and bet a 3 bet negative progression playing Basic Strategy but leave off the high risk doubles and splits. That is what I was playing at Flamingo. How hard could that be? Many of you watched me.

At Flamingo the second night, I was betting the extremely shallow 112. Was good for $2000 in less than a half hour. Forget Taj. Have any of you ever made $2000, let alone $10,000, in less than a half hour W/O betting over $200. I think not. But I just showed you how easy it actually is. And I have done this hundreds of times in public exhibition W/O ever losing.

I have no magic power over cards. EVERYTHING I do is in your manuals. I have no secrets.

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Hi Ellis,

Could you please point me in the right direction. I see that you mention NBJ 1st and 3rd base. I also now see (I don't log on too often) that there are free blackjack manuals. Do the free manuals contain the same info as the pay ones? (I would guess not?) I am trying to get off work now that there is a date for the AC seminar. What should I buy? What is included in which manual? Really what I am asking is: Exactly which manuals do I need to play like you? (haha)

Thanks for reply!!

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Hi Ellis,

Could you please point me in the right direction. I see that you mention NBJ 1st and 3rd base. I also now see (I don't log on too often) that there are free blackjack manuals. Do the free manuals contain the same info as the pay ones? (I would guess not?) I am trying to get off work now that there is a date for the AC seminar. What should I buy? What is included in which manual? Really what I am asking is: Exactly which manuals do I need to play like you? (haha)

Thanks for reply!!

Hi Kramden! First, anybody can learn to play as well as I do with sufficient study and practice. Even better than me. After all. I'm getting pretty old. I admit that several of my students play better than I do.

There are no "free" BJ manuals but several are included when you sign up for a BJ seminar. So I guess you could say that the manuals are free or the seminar is free, whichever way you choose to look at it.

Next, all BJ manuals are instruction on the same 2 part system: NBJ First base for clumped cards and NBJ 3rd base for random cards. They are just different points of view.

I think 0 Prox and NBJ are the best place to start. That is why those two are currently offered as a 2 for 1 deal at an extremely low introductory price. At the risk of being redundant here is some more info:

"Card Counting vs New Blackjack; which should you play?

1.) There are only two ways to play BJ. Card counting (CC) with Basic Strategy (BS) and New Blackjkack. (NBJ)

2.) CC considers one factor: the count determines your bet size. From there it always makes the BS play, right or wrong.

3.) CC generally assumes the dealer has a ten value card in the hole. This is correct 4 hands out of 13.

NBJ has an exceptionally accurate method of determining whether the hole card is high or low. This is all you need to know to make the best possible play decision.

"Clumping" is the fact that cards form clumps of mostly high, mostly low and random in the dealer shoe caused by the dealer always picking up the mostly low break cards first and then picking up the mostly high non break cards. Shuffling does not dissipate clumping, it enhances it.

4.) CC assumes all cards are random. This is correct about 10% of the time.

NBJ recognizes and utilizes clumping when it occurs. This is correct 100% of the time.

NBJ considers many factors including:

Table selection.

Which seat?

The number of players.

The degree of clumping.

The age of the cards.

The dealer hole card read.

The fact that the dealer CAN'T break in all low or all high cards.

The dealer break rate.

What up card the dealer is mostly breaking on, high or low.

What betting strategy is best for the game at hand?

And many other factors

CC does not consider ANY of the above factors.

As a result, CC has a maximum 43% hands won rate in random cards which decreases as clumping increases to less than 10% in a highly clumped game.

NBJ has about a 55% hands won rate overall. Experts do even better.

CC has a 50% double down win rate.

NBJ doubles less and achieves a very high DD win rate in the 90% area.

CC loses overall on splits.

NBJ splits less and achieves a very high win rate.

NBJ doubles and splits according to what is running.

CC simply goes by BS and totally ignores what is running.

CC never insures.

NBJ has an extremely high insurance win rate, sometimes achieving 100%.

NBJ produces thousands of year end BJ winners.

CC hasn't produced a single year end winner.

To explain this, the CC motto is: "It doesn't matter whether you win or lose as long as you make the correct play."

I leave it to you to be the judge of that."

NBJ is really a simple concept. The hard part about teaching it is to first get you to forget everything else you ever learned about BJ. All the books are wrong, dead wrong. Everything you ever heard about BJ is wrong. Even the movies are wrong. It is best to start with a clean slate, if that is possible.

There are only two games worth playing in a casino, Blackjack and Baccarat.

Here is the question you should be asking:

What game is the most profitable way to win money in a casino? I am very often asked that question and my answer is always the same. Blackjack.

In which game can you win the most money? Again Blackjack.

Forget the casino party line numbers. They say they have only a 1/2 % advantage in BJ. Bull!

They say they have a 1.25% advantage in Bac. Again, BS

Look at the published casino profit numbers.

Casinos win 15% of the buy in money in BJ.

They win 26% of the buy in money in Bac.

Those are the real handicaps you must overcome by skill. Which do you think is better?

Yes, Baccarat is easier to learn because the game is so much simpler. And yes, there is good money in Baccarat for those who learn to play NOR.

BUT there is more money in BJ for those who take the time to learn NBJ.

What are your questions?

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Hi Ellis,

Thanks for your reply. So just so I understand it...NBJ contains the entire approach to the 1st and 3rd base play. Zero proximity contains what different strategy? I will buy them both together as listed, and studying them both separately accomplishes learning what different aspects of the game?

Thanks again!!

Oh, also, at the top of my screen there are downloads available for "free manuals". I didn't download them yet, but they are there.(I am talking about separate free "icons" to download WCB and NBJ)?

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Hi Ellis,

Thanks for your reply. So just so I understand it...NBJ contains the entire approach to the 1st and 3rd base play. Zero proximity contains what different strategy? I will buy them both together as listed, and studying them both separately accomplishes learning what different aspects of the game?

Thanks again!!

Oh, also, at the top of my screen there are downloads available for "free manuals". I didn't download them yet, but they are there.(I am talking about separate free "icons" to download WCB and NBJ)?

I referred your second question to Keith.

But on your first question: Recognize that both NBJ First and Third Base require selecting the right table. 0 Prox helps you zero in on the right table. Recognize also that it is possible to win at BJ by table selection and Basic Strategy alone. 0 Prox shows you exactly how to do this. But 0 Prox is also a good overview of the whole NBJ concept.

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