Yes, F3 is still a viable play

[MVSeahog]

Hi guys,

Well, with me totally stuffed with too much food and while waiting for the Patriots/Jets game to get started, I stopped in at BetPhoenix to see if anything was going and I was right at the start of this shoe. Actually I got there at hand 3 and it looked good to just test a bet at hand 4.

As most of my blood supply was trying to digest food while leaving a few drops for my feeble brain, I somehow figured out that maybe F2 or F3 might work here, depending on what the P's were doing.

I'm normally not a big fan of F3 but it seemed like the play at hand 13 and if it had lost, I was only down 1 unit and could have just regrouped and moved on. As it turned out, F3 was the play and I continued on.

As I was just working on F3 and expecting to exit the shoe in a reasonably short order, I only kept the SAP counts when they switched or it looked like I needed it. SAP did not really come into play here but you never know when it might be needed.

Anyway, played almost the entire shoe on Banker and wound up with just over 2 units in commissions!

The funny thing is that if that very first wager had lost, I would have probably jumped on S40 and played down to hand 32 for a small profit and then exited the shoe. Funny how things like that turn out.

Also notice that I became super conservative at hand 47 with the 5 in a row loss. +16 would have been the bail out point.

It is now time for my next feeding!

MVS

[bo_da]

I deleted OT+ thread Sorry everyone's I Rest my posted , Ellis OT -+ are all yours now Good luck everyone

[bo_da]

MVS im teasing on this shoe and have a score +27 on 2nd colum playing OT+ Exploits, I know i know OT+ sucks just a teasing around we all know that NOR is the best, stuck with it and good bye PRos suckers

[MVSeahog]

MVS im teasing on this shoe and have a score +27 on 2nd colum playing OT+ Exploits, I know i know OT+ sucks just a teasing around we all know that NOR is the best, stuck with it and good bye PRos suckers

bo_da,

There were obviously many different ways to play this shoe and show a good profit. F3 just happened to be the one I chose in real time with real money.

Any time I post one of my shoes, I also include my thinking of the "WHY's" of what I did, as mentioned in the thoughts on losing the first wager and then moving on to S40 for the plan.

We are all here to learn and to continue to learn. When I have something that may be of use to the entire baccarat group, I post it up as most people will not want to see the day to day bland shoes that produce small (but consistent) profits.

Playing Ellis' "3-4-5" on this would have made me a ton of money, but that's after the fact. The real fact is that this is the way it got played and not how I "should" have or "could" have played it.

MVS

[Guest]

bo_da,

There were obviously many different ways to play this shoe and show a good profit. F3 just happened to be the one I chose in real time with real money.

Any time I post one of my shoes, I also include my thinking of the "WHY's" of what I did, as mentioned in the thoughts on losing the first wager and then moving on to S40 for the plan.

We are all here to learn and to continue to learn. When I have something that may be of use to the entire baccarat group, I post it up as most people will not want to see the day to day bland shoes that produce small (but consistent) profits.

Playing Ellis' "3-4-5" on this would have made me a ton of money, but that's after the fact. The real fact is that this is the way it got played and not how I "should" have or "could" have played it.

MVS

Hi MVS and Happy Thanksgiving! Right, I don't think F3 was an odd choice at all. As I have mentioned in all the Bac seminars I always play F when a shoe starts with a 4 or a 1,4. It is hardly ever wrong. And since I am always playing NOR+, I'm always playing Mode 3 which eliminates the possibility of always switching to the wrong mode. The only difference is I would have been betting U1D2 instead of 123. This makes very little difference in this shoe and the vast majority of our bets would be the same.

You hit the F3 culprit once which is a 3 on the wrong side. You got through it in good shape with only a 3 bet hi. I would have done only 2 units better but would have incurred a 6 bet hi instead of only a 3 bet. It is too bad your one attempt to increase your bet on a straight run didn't pan out better. U1D2 picks up 1 more unit there so I would have gotten to +30 3 units sooner where I definitely would have quit. There is a Baccarat God up there who punishes those who try to exceed +30 with either a 123 or U1D2. No dispensations for Thanksgiving!

MVS, that was excellent play and completely by the book! I'm sure you completely outplayed everyone at your table.

Hmmm, seems like every time I leave town lately a thread gets deleted. We never had that problem before. The one Cardinal sin on this forum. I wonder what Keith's solution to that will be???

Edited November 24, 2012 by Guest

[Guest]

You know, I like to hear player ideas on system rules and cash MGT when those ideas have a sound mathematical basis. Members frequently come up with very good ideas. That is what forums are for.

I can even abide the temper tantrums of 4 year olds. Listened to them all through Thanksgiving with family. Don't need to hear them on this forum.

I can even believe a member could accidentally delete a thread even though it is supposed to be impossible and has never been done before in the whole history of BTC. But when the same member does it again inside of a week.....

I started this forum saying that Baccarat is no place for superstition regardless of race or religion. To be successful at Baccarat we must live in the real world. Therefore I draw the line when players start recommending such things as "breakaway bets" and other BK superstition bets that have no basis in mathematics. These bets win consistently only after the fact but always seem to win after the fact.

Some members forget that I invented SAP. I know an SAP bet when I see one. When a player invokes SAP as his reasoning for making happen to win after the fact bets which in fact were not SAP bets at all, he's playing me for an idiot - Not a good idea. Worse, he's scamming YOU on MY forum. Also not a good idea.

Not to mention declaring SAP doesn't work right after invoking SAP as his excuse for blue sky winning bets with no idea, whatsoever, of how to play SAP. Just make up a bet that wins after the fact and then blame it on SAP.

So why did he go to all this trouble? So he could invite you to HIS forum, just as BK and Maverick did. You saw how that worked out. A lot of prior members got severely scammed. One "donated" his entire bank account.

I apologize to the few members who fell for all this. Hey, I did too - for a little while.

I think we need to clean up the NOR+ thread and get all the rules in one clear place.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Guest

[Baccarat A]

Ellis, that is very well said.

[Guest]

Before we leave the bo_da era and get back to NOR+ lets take a look at some of the bo_da remarks:

One day he's supposedly using SAP to defy the NOR+ rules and the next day he's saying SAP doesn't work.

So it seems the question is, does SAP work?

It is not a matter of opinion. SAP is a mathematical fact of life:

Fact: A 72 play shoe averages 36 events.

Fact: Each event has its normal frequency of occurrence:

18 1's

9 2s

4.5 3s

2.25 4s

1.125 5s etc.

or it can be stated thusly

a 1 every 4 plays

a 2 every 8 plays

a 3 every 16 plays

a 4 every 32 plays

a 5 every 64 plays

We call this the 50% rule. It is a mathematical fact of life.

Fact: You will never see a shoe where each event hits its normal mathematical frequency on the head. This is impossible because, for instance, you simply can't have 4 and a half 3s in a Baccarat shoe. Therefore every Baccarat shoe ever dealt, some events happen more than normal meaning that some MUST happen less than normal. You can't have a shoe where all events occur more than normal or all less than normal. This is a mathematical impossibility.

SAP measures the weighted average of each event against it's normal frequency. It bets ON events occurring more than normal while betting AGAINST events occurring less than normal.

At the end of a shoe, one event was always favored the most and a different event was favored the least. We have a double whammy. SAP had you betting ON the event that was the strongest and against the event that was the weakest.

SAP is not a matter of opinion any more than 2+2=4 is a matter of opinion.

Saying SAP doesn't work demonstrates a lack of understanding of basic mathematics.

SAP is much like saying there will be more 1's in a shoe than 5s. You might be wrong one shoe in several million.

But to use SAP you must understand how to do it. You must know what weighted averages are and what they mean. You must know our simple way of tracking weighted averages. Since the bets bo_da labeled as SAP bets were not SAP bets at all and in fact went directly against SAP, I can only conclude he has no understanding of SAP, or worse, he figures we won't have any understanding of it and therefore won't recognize his out of thin air winning bets were not SAP bets at all.

Do you need to know all this to play NOR or NOR+?

No. NOR uses the 3rd bet rule to replace SAP. It is an SAP shortcut and simplification.

NOR+, on the other hand, eliminates the need for SAP by always staying in Mode 3. It can stay in MODE 3 by using U1D2 betting.

Saying that Modes don't work is beside the point since NOR+ does not use Modes. But Modes are another mathematical fact and not an opinion. The fact is that half of all shoes will favor Mode 2 and half will favor Mode 3. The 3rd bet rule keeps you with the Mode that is winning the most in the shoe at hand. But some shoes tend to go back and forth between Modes and NOR+ eliminates this specter.

But to say Modes don't work is just another demonstation of juvenile temperment or jealousy when we aren't using Modes with NOR+ in the first place.

To say that you are better off W/O F or S40 demonstrates a lack of experience. The MVS F shoe posted at the beginning of this thread clearly demonstrates why we have multiple systems in the NOR approach. Real experts have been trying to design a single system Baccarat method for over a hundred years. No one has been successful yet. I doubt it will be bo_da.

Which brings us to the OR count:

We use the OR count mostly to determins which NOR system to play.

+ OR favors S40.

- OR favors F

hovering 0 favors OTB4L

This is MUST KNOW information and extremely easy to monitor.

To eliminate the - count is much like saying I'm going to win the football game by eliminating the other team.

Half of all shoes favor a - count. We need to know the strength of that minus count to know when to deploy F and how strong F will be. We learned - numbers and counts in what, 5th grade? I can't remember back that far. A + count is meaningless W/O knowing the effect of the - count on it.

But that is not what bo_da is doing. He is eliminating only the - count below 0. This is even more preposterous since the shoe has no idea of where 0 is. But you do. What you end up with is a totally meaningless OR count. Your strongest weapon in the game is completely destroyed.

BTW, bo_da is not banned. Keith simply removed his posting permissions. We can't allow permissions to a member who deletes entire threads every time he loses a shoe. He deleted all of the directions and rules for NOR+. Only to attempt to replace it with pure fantasy that changes with every shoe. Any who want to follow his rantings, be my guest. We prefer serious adults here.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Guest

[JackBac]

Hello Mr Clifton or should I call you master Clifon.

I new to this web site , I am a regular Bac player at the casino I pick up tip as I go from other players, some time I win some time don't I need to win more consistency. So I decided to buy the NOR manual as a gift for my self on my birthday. The manual it self it easy to understand , But some of them I try to put them together does'nt make sence to me for instance the OR counts an the table 1234 counts Please expland more. I try to read most of the thread to understand but i could not understand,Maybe Im over well with the information Im a visual learning . Please help

[Guest]

Hello Mr Clifton or should I call you master Clifon.

I new to this web site , I am a regular Bac player at the casino I pick up tip as I go from other players, some time I win some time don't I need to win more consistency. So I decided to buy the NOR manual as a gift for my self on my birthday. The manual it self it easy to understand , But some of them I try to put them together does'nt make sence to me for instance the OR counts an the table 1234 counts Please expland more. I try to read most of the thread to understand but i could not understand,Maybe Im over well with the information Im a visual learning . Please help

Well. Happy Birthday and just call me Ellis.

Tips from other players won't do because other players lose at an incredible average rate of 26%.

The OR count is the most important information in the game. So you must get it right. It is extremely simple IF you are using a vertical score card like we are. But you are probably trying to make do with a horizontal score card since you learned from other players.

So your first step is to learn how to use a vertical score card. You should have got some played games on score cards with your manual. But if not, there are plenty in this forum to study. In fact there is a good one in this thread if you simply scroll down a few posts.

OK, when P wins we put a circle in the P column and when B wins we put a circle under B. Each play is entered BELOW the play before. We do our cards in columns of 20 plays. After 20 plays we start a new column. Those little numbers in the circles or along side the circle are our bet size in units. The last column is our running score in units.

An Opposite is when the opposite side wins from the play before. A Repeat is when the same side wins again.

The first play of the game is neither a repeat nor an opposite because there is no prior play to judge from.

So your OR count starts at play 2. (Always number your plays.)

To do an OR count, an opposite is +1 and a repeat is -1.

So for instance if your running OR count is +3, this means that so far, the game has had 3 more opposites than repeats. The game is favoring opposites by 3.

Study the shoe below until you totally understand this. Then, read your NOR manual again and I think it will make a whole lot more sense to you.

But ask questions. That is what we are here for. There is no such thing as a dumb question on this forum.

Also, whatever language you speak, there are other members who speak your language. Don't be afraid to speak to them in your own language. That is what our PM system is for.

OK, that should get you started on the right foot. So do your homework and then ask your next question.

Edited December 11, 2012 by Guest

[MVSeahog]

Well, this looks like the right place to put this shoe.

Was out with the wife while she did her monthly slots free play thing and I had some time to actually get a live game in for a change.

The single table had one Asian guy playing and not very thrilled about it from his expression. He wasn't the usual guy I see from time to time, but perhaps a mid-30's, early 40's type. Heavy Bank better, too.

Anyway, I asked to see his card and transcribed it quickly from what I saw. I think he may have not had the entire shoe as it ended with MY hand 53 so maybe he didn't have the exact front end of the shoe.

From what I could see, it looked like a ripe shoe for F2 or F3 on Player to me. Just one lone "2" on Bank up until the time I showed up and just the occasional single so Player looked like the way to go.

I got started at hand 29 on my card (probably hand 35 or 40 actual) and jumped in running F3 on Player. Good choice for a change!

Two broken pencils later and not a "B3" in the deck!

My playing buddy at the corner seat was chasing the Bank anytime it showed and he was taking a beating on it. My max bet was 3 units.

On the play card, had I lost the bet at hand 45 I would have exited the shoe with a respectable +5, but it won so I continued on.

The game was running fast and I never did get around to catching the SAP count up but it was obvious the 3's and 4+'s on Player were running rampant while Bank's runs were few and far between.

B14132513

P11314111412

P2231212

MVS

[Guest]

This is an excellent example of a strong sided shoe. I wonder how your Asian co-player felt when you killed his shoe W/O a single chip in your commission tray!! Somehow I don't think you won over a new friend. Most of these guys take things personal.

For the life of me I can't figure out the math that causes this phenomenon. And it is always Player when the odds favor Bank!

I've had hundreds, perhaps thousands of such shoes where I end up paying no commission where Bank just can't muster a 3 in a row. Sometimes it can't even muster a 2 in a row. But the same phenomenon never seems to occur on Bank. Go figure.

Card depletion can't explain it because there is no depletion at the beginning of the shoe. Card counters have never been able to explain this. Yet there it is completely defying random odds. I wonder if the casinos even know.

I guess this just calls for that old expression: Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.