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New NOR player from Singapore. Excited and eager to learn.


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Hi all,

I am an amateur bac player from Singapore. After a week of reading up on many threads in the forums, i am proud to announce that i have decided to give the NOR method of playing Baccarat a go!

I used to frequent the local casinos and played only the bac tables. After much observation and thinking, i thought i had developed a tentative way to play the game, emphasizing each time the importance of discipline and removing emotional betting as much as possible. My system worked decently, making small profits in the long run. It did involve some form of table selection and was very reliant on choppy tables in particular. It also included some small attempts to have bet size management. However, i had the feeling all this while that there was something wrong with the system i employed. I could not properly/mathematically back up the rationale to this system and the amount that i bet, even thou i stuck to it for a long time. Eventually it was this lack of confidence with the way i played, that prompted me to stop playing bac altogether, this despite still being in the green after a few months. I knew that there must have been a way to play better and always believed that there must be some system out there that could achieve a higher P.A%.

I'm glad i chance upon this website and Ellis's teachings. I like the way there is a community of support here, even in a hobby that can be highly individualistic. I hope to learn as much as possible, and play with many like minded NOR-based Singapore players to garner experience. Hopefully one day i could play with the rest who are overseas!

Thank you for reading this introductory post. Will devour the NOR manual and start posting questions on the game soon.

Cheers

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  • 4 months later...

Hi core! Glad to hear you are doing OK. Yes, I like your facebook page. I think we have a few too.

Lauahpek and Tanpohh, Welcome to BTC.

Lauahpek, I enjoy your honesty with yourself. The FIRST discipline all Bac players MUST learn is to be honest with yourself. You just can't get anywhere without that quality trait. ALL must learn it.

Guys, I don't have anything against flat betting. I do it myself sometimes when I end up playing a strange casino where I don't yet know exactly what is going on. Several of our members choose to only flat bet especially while learning. In Baccarat, all of us are still learning, including me. In this game, you can keep learning and keep improving forever. It is really endless learning. Never be satisfied. You can always improve no matter how good you are or aren't.

Now don't get me wrong. I'm not picking a fight with anybody. But let me point out a few mathematical facts.

The odds of the game are 50/50 plus commission.

If you simply flip a coin, you will win half your bets in the long run.

That already makes you better than the avg player.

Casino Baccarat profit reports show conclusively that most players somehow find a way to lose more than half their bets in a 50/50 game. So your FIRST goal in Baccarat is to get your game up to at least 50/50.

As near as I can tell from my own play and hundreds of shoes and trip reports reported by our members, NOR+ is achieving close to almost a 60% hit rate. Now it might be slightly lower for preshuffled cards and slightly higher for 8 individual standard decks, but not by much.

When you flat bet, if you win half your bets, you break even but still owe commission.

To win money flat betting, you must win more than half your bets and enough more to cover commission.

But, if you only win half your bets with U1D2 NOR+ betting you win substantially. See that?

So your second goal is to win more than half your bets and get your hit rate above 50%.

Once you achieve that goal I no longer see any point in flat betting because you win so much more with our progressive betting at the same hit rate.

Lets say we both win a game at only a 55% hit rate. That is a good hit rate for both of us but I'm going to win more than you if you are flat betting and at 59% I'm going to win substantially more.

At a 59% hit rate, a flat bettor is going to win about 10 units depending on where he starts the shoe and how long he stays in the game. But in the same game with the same hit rate, I'm definitely going to be out of that game in the 3rd col. with my goal of +20.

But, you might say, flat betting is better if you lose.

I'm not so sure about that. With our -8 stop loss and our captures, our avg losing shoe is in the -5, -6 range. About the same as a flat bettor. The flat bettor might have a 1 or 2 unit advantage in losing shoes, maybe. But I've got a ten unit advantage in Winning shoes and the NOR+ shoes won rate is close to 80%.

So, as I see it, flat betting might be slightly better if you plan to lose. Maybe, BUT, you can't play Baccarat if you plan to lose!

So once you get your hit rate and your shoes won rate above 50%, I no longer see any point in flat betting.

But to each his own! Who am I to say? I've only been playing this game for 30 years.

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Hi core! Glad to hear you are doing OK. Yes, I like your facebook page. I think we have a few too.

Lauahpek and Tanpohh, Welcome to BTC.

Lauahpek, I enjoy your honesty with yourself. The FIRST discipline all Bac players MUST learn is to be honest with yourself. You just can't get anywhere without that quality trait. ALL must learn it.

Guys, I don't have anything against flat betting. I do it myself sometimes when I end up playing a strange casino where I don't yet know exactly what is going on. Several of our members choose to only flat bet especially while learning. In Baccarat, all of us are still learning, including me. In this game, you can keep learning and keep improving forever. It is really endless learning. Never be satisfied. You can always improve no matter how good you are or aren't.

Now don't get me wrong. I'm not picking a fight with anybody. But let me point out a few mathematical facts.

The odds of the game are 50/50 plus commission.

If you simply flip a coin, you will win half your bets in the long run.

That already makes you better than the avg player.

Casino Baccarat profit reports show conclusively that most players somehow find a way to lose more than half their bets in a 50/50 game. So your FIRST goal in Baccarat is to get your game up to at least 50/50.

As near as I can tell from my own play and hundreds of shoes and trip reports reported by our members, NOR+ is achieving close to almost a 60% hit rate. Now it might be slightly lower for preshuffled cards and slightly higher for 8 individual standard decks, but not by much.

When you flat bet, if you win half your bets, you break even but still owe commission.

To win money flat betting, you must win more than half your bets and enough more to cover commission.

But, if you only win half your bets with U1D2 NOR+ betting you win substantially. See that?

So your second goal is to win more than half your bets and get your hit rate above 50%.

Once you achieve that goal I no longer see any point in flat betting because you win so much more with our progressive betting at the same hit rate.

Lets say we both win a game at only a 55% hit rate. That is a good hit rate for both of us but I'm going to win more than you if you are flat betting and at 59% I'm going to win substantially more.

At a 59% hit rate, a flat bettor is going to win about 10 units depending on where he starts the shoe and how long he stays in the game. But in the same game with the same hit rate, I'm definitely going to be out of that game in the 3rd col. with my goal of +20.

But, you might say, flat betting is better if you lose.

I'm not so sure about that. With our -8 stop loss and our captures, our avg losing shoe is in the -5, -6 range. About the same as a flat bettor. The flat bettor might have a 1 or 2 unit advantage in losing shoes, maybe. But I've got a ten unit advantage in Winning shoes and the NOR+ shoes won rate is close to 80%.

So, as I see it, flat betting might be slightly better if you plan to lose. Maybe, BUT, you can't play Baccarat if you plan to lose!

So once you get your hit rate and your shoes won rate above 50%, I no longer see any point in flat betting.

But to each his own! Who am I to say? I've only been playing this game for 30 years.

After reading your post...I decided (out of curiosity) to check out my last 100 shoes played. It didn't take that long as my record keeping is not bad.

Some were still short shoes for various reasons (stop/loss pull out...half decade rule ..3rd hit...prostate probs..:redface: etc)

Online shoes tend to be a little shorter than a bricks and mortar casino anyway so that has to be taken into account.

Over my last 100 shoes played, I am 957 units in front (9.57 units/shoe)

But here is the interesting part... If I had just flat bet every shoe...I would have been exactly 500 units in front (5 units/shoe)

I'm no maths genius...but I figure that would screw with the heads of a few maths Gurus.

I figure that my own records say a hell of a lot about the veracity of NOR+ (and I'm still just a newbie at this game)

I can understand why some would be attracted by the flat betting idea...with flat betting $200 units, that pretty much means that every time a shoe is played, you would expect to walk away with $1000 in your pocket... and that ain't hay. Do that over a day's play and over several days and the bank balance will look pretty healthy.

As for me though...I'll stick with the NOR+ betting strategy...It seems to work for me.

Just had a thought though...I wonder how much more I would be in front if I kept a pee pee bottle next to me when I'm playing online?:redface:

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Oz, as one of the most knowledgable players in this game, I think I can safely say that no, they won't let you pee at the table. Other than that though, it's not a bad idea!

I believe the numbers in my post are very accurate and your numbers on your shoes are very supportive of my numbers.

Our players are averaging anywhere from 6 (NOR players) to 10 (NOR + players)

Yes, the flat bettor might score +10 in the situation I constructed below. But he is not going to average +10.

More like +3 or 4. I would take core's word on that - whatever he thinks. But recognize that core is an exceptionally good player so his personal flat bet avg is likely significantly better than the avg flat bettor. Maybe we can get core to tell us. But even then, we'd have to take core's word with a grain of salt because it appears to me that core is striving to start his own teaching business if I'm not mistaken. Hey and why not? Core is an excellent player. Ha, while I'm getting too old. That is my honest appraisal. But core, I've still got a few good years left! After that, go for it!

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