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I'm starting to get a little wary of wearing out my welcome by asking too many questions...but here I go again.

I keep reading snippets about SAP counts and their importance as another tool in defeating the insidious Casino Bosses

So my questions are ..."Where the heck do I find a detailed explanation of SAP? and...How important is it?"

Thanks in advance


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  • 1 month later...

Guys, go to the front page index of the forum and hit Baccarat. Then hit NOR/SAP Forum.

Recognize that the 3rd bet rule and the 2nd bet rule in NOR+ automatically gives you the SAP play. One advantage SAP has is when it notes that 3s are higher than 2s. This occurs in the shoe Paul is discussing right now.

What we do in NOR+ when we notice this is simply bet below a 2 instead of crossing over as we normally would with OTB4L. Then we cross over under the 3 - unless 4+s exceed 3s.

In general, SAP bets against events occurring the least and on events occurring the most just like the 3rd bet rule does.

To my way of thinking, the 3rd bet rule is simplest. That is why we came up with it.

But not everybody thinks that way. Some think it is easier to keep a SAP chart than to note whether you won or lost your 3 bet or whatever you bet in place of your 3rd bet.

But it certainly doesn't hurt to look at the same arithmetic from a different perspective - the SAP perspective.

Eventually, you want to arrive at a point where you need neither the 3rd bet rule or SAP to tell you the best play according to the history of the shoe at hand.

Recognize that:

1's vs 2+s is normally 50/50

2's vs 3+s is normally 50/50

3s vs 4+s is normally 50/50

+ means "or mores"

But shoes are almost never normal. Some events are occurring more than normal which means that some MUST be occurring less than normal - The laws of math.

The greater the SAP spread the safer the SAP bet. But it is usually the same bet NOR+ gives you. SAP is just another way of arriving at the same bet.

But looking at both methods and understanding both methods will improve your play because it helps you understand WHY you are betting the side called for. Once you fully understand WHY you are betting a certain side, your next step is to learn to bet the right side automatically W/O charts or rules.

When 1s are MC (most common) we play S40

When 2s and/or 3s are MC, we play OTB4L

When 4+s are MC we play F

Modes give you the correct SAP play for going OTR

But, when in doubt, it is comforting to check the SAP play called for at least until you no longer need to.

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Guys, I'm thinking a refresher thread "Basic Baccarat - Basic NOR" is called for at this point. There are certain things you should be noting (picking up on) as you practice and as you read threads. But I'll start a new thread for it. Also, it is critically important that you pick up a couple pads of 1/4 " 8.5 X 11 graph paper pads at WalMart or wherever. Not only to play shoes but to draw out patterns to get a FULL understanding of the likes and dislikes of each system and each Mode.

Now you experienced guys may think you don't need this but everyone, including me, needs a review now and then.

For instance, I shouldn't have been switching so often the first day in Vegas and it shouldn't have taken all Saturday night to figure out what I was doing wrong. In fact, I shouldn't have been making such an amateurish mistake in the first place. We ALL need a review of basics now and then.

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Thanks for the clarity Ellis.

When you are referencing most common, do you mean most dominant occurrence within the shoe at hand, or occurrences vs their expected probability?

We used to to it relative to the expected occurrence but we are now realizing that a simple count of events tells us all we need to know and is much simpler.

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  • Keith Smith changed the title to SAP COUNTS AND WHEN TO PLAY THEM | ECD GROUP | March 1, 2013

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