A little confused on what to play on this

[bac-cracker]

Lately I have not been winning at all and will probably look at my other charts again. Ive been getting dirty shoes and most of them at mid range around 4-5iar etc and switches. I can't play at hand 2 as there is no history and all shoes change.

It starts off at 2's

B12215414

P15421114

Anyhow, any advice

[kramden]

Hello sir!

My humble opinion would have been to wait till play six or so and then

notice that the disparity between "time before time before last and opposite

time before time before last" starts out being pretty tight. You could then just net bet it(or use opposing progressions)

until the end of the shoe.

One trick I sometimes use is to wait for a single to occur before I place my first

"net bet" if I notice that there is usually a double or triple same outcome

on either side I am watching.

Another observartion is that you could have also net betted otb4l versus tb4l as it too holds pretty tight.

Of course this is the 4d method so if you only play NOR it was more of a "repeats" shoe in

certain sections.

Good luck!

Just be prepared to stop and watch the shoe if you lose two or three iar after you make

your decision to start betting.

[Guest]

Lately I have not been winning at all and will probably look at my other charts again. Ive been getting dirty shoes and most of them at mid range around 4-5iar etc and switches. I can't play at hand 2 as there is no history and all shoes change.

It starts off at 2's

B12215414

P15421114

Anyhow, any advice

Well, yes maybe you can do OK with the 4D but lets stick to NOR since that is what you are attempting to learn at this stage. This is an S40 shoe somewhat in disguise. Why S40? Because it starts choppy - The OR counts gets to +2 in the first 7 plays W/O ever going minus.

A mistake that nearly all beginners make is they are afraid of runs. They forget that both S40 and OTB4L are designed to handle runs. All shoes have runs. You can't be changing systems every time you see a run. And you can't be running the other way.

As you learn you will eventually learn that the OR count is our best indicator of which mode to start with. At the point of your first 3 bet, a +OR is saying Mode 3 and a minus or 0 OR is saying Mode 2.

So OK, this shoe is saying S40 Mode 2. If you play it that way from play 3, you score a very easy +12 W/O ever getting out of Mode 2 and W/O ever betting more than 3. You will quickly see that S40 M2 LOVES both 4s and 5s. It even does fine on 6s.

This in spite of the fact that you are very unlucky on whether to stay OTR for one or 2 bets. You'll only get that right 2 times following history.

Try it and if you don't also get +12 I'll play it for you. No trick required here - just stick to the basic S40 M2 rules with a 123 prog.

BTW, I usually start at play 3. If the 2nd play is a repeat I start OTB4L. If it's an opposite - S40. That works most of the time, particularly when it agrees with prior shoes that color.

[bac-cracker]

Thanks both for the info. Good advice.

Yes, I actually started at play 6 and it looked like OTB more than s40's so I decided to go there.

By the way for my first 3 bet if I did choose s40, how did you get s40m2 as on 2nd bet it was 0 or count.... but even if i was at s40, i would lose 3 bet and hit 4th bet and change to m2 next time.

Also wouldn't you quit the shoe or when you keep making these 3 bets to stay even, Or do you bulldoze through it... I always think its not too good of a shoe when I keep having to 3 bet as it can easily go to 4 the next time.

Also I don't have the luxury of choosing to play that early. I usually try for it, or wait for the 6-7 hand.

So when you do your play on the 3rd bet it usually works... I have tried that and sometimes I get long runs at the beginning or it gets weird.

Anyhow, thanks again both.

[kramden]

Personally if I were consistently losing 2 iar but winning the third I would take a closer look at

the approach I was taking. This is easier said than done in the heat of

the game though.

Especially when a pair of knockers in my face keeps trying to bring me drinks. etc.

So I agree with you. however I wouldnt necessarily quit the shoe right then.

Rather I would wait out a couple of hands because what ever you were doing to

win within three bets is close to following the shoe.

[Guest]

Thanks both for the info. Good advice.

Yes, I actually started at play 6 and it looked like OTB more than s40's so I decided to go there.

By the way for my first 3 bet if I did choose s40, how did you get s40m2 as on 2nd bet it was 0 or count.... but even if i was at s40, i would lose 3 bet and hit 4th bet and change to m2 next time.

Right. At a 0 OR count just prior to our first 3 bet we give the benefit of doubt to M2 simply because it tends to bet lower so we favor it. Look at my initial reply again.

Also wouldn't you quit the shoe or when you keep making these 3 bets to stay even, Or do you bulldoze through it... I always think its not too good of a shoe when I keep having to 3 bet as it can easily go to 4 the next time.

Well had I lost the 3 I would have been betting U1D2. With that prog you are not worried about the 3 bet level. You worry about the 5 and 6 bet levels. That is the beauty of NOR+ - it gives you more room to maneuver.

Also I don't have the luxury of choosing to play that early. I usually try for it, or wait for the 6-7 hand.

So when you do your play on the 3rd bet it usually works... I have tried that and sometimes I get long runs at the beginning or it gets weird.

Anyhow, thanks again both.

Well you can have a run start at play 6 just as easy as play 2, But see, you're still afraid of runs. I get runs too but I play the darn things. Play the shoe out the way the system is designed and you'll see that you make money on every run. That first 5iar your score is 3 before the run starts and 6 after it ends. You can't play this game if you are afraid of runs. Every shoe has runs. Yours has more than its fair share of 4s and 5s but if you play them you beat them. If it had a 6 you'd beat that too.

[bac-cracker]

Again, I thank you both for the good info. By the way, I forgot to tell you prior to my losses this week. I was like 20-3 on shoes.

But at that time I was betting smaller and flatting a lot on losses in the middle of the shoe by just looking at my 4d and just playing more solid and laying off more hands.

Then I noticed that if I did play nor on those, I probably would have won more than not. So I jumped up my initial bet and I played it as I should have, but for some reason, I got really scared and didn't play right, chose wrong systems and played it all wrong I guess.

So I am going back to playing smaller in my comfort zone to not care about these huge bets. Also when I was losing almost every shoe after wards, I was still betting big and bigger as if I was chasing... typically gambler right there, so this is for all those that get really comfortable winning almost every shoe and trying to up your bets, just fyi.

Cheers

[bac-cracker]

Ellis, quick question for you.

I reread your comment.

"At the point of your first 3 bet, a +OR is saying Mode 3 and a minus or 0 OR is saying Mode 2"

I thought it was +3 we stay in chop and -3 we stay on runs... well that was for OTB. Is this still correct? And everything in between?... OR at 0, no bet and -2 to +2?

I didn't recall haven't an enhanced system for s40... is there? If there is, then that would help too!!!

[Guest]

Ellis, quick question for you.

I reread your comment.

"At the point of your first 3 bet, a +OR is saying Mode 3 and a minus or 0 OR is saying Mode 2"

I thought it was +3 we stay in chop and -3 we stay on runs... well that was for OTB. Is this still correct? And everything in between?... OR at 0, no bet and -2 to +2?

I didn't recall haven't an enhanced system for s40... is there? If there is, then that would help too!!!

kilieu. first, Everyone should be paying more attention to the Oz situation.

Next, I AM giving you the enhanced version for both S40 and OTB4L:

While it might seem otherwise:

Mode 2 is our STREAK Mode because it gets on runs earlier

Mode 3 is our CHOP mode because it stays on chop longer

Therefore the enhanced version of both S40 and OTB4L IS:

Instead of arbitrarily deciding which mode to start with, we go by the O/R count:

At the point of our first 3 bet:

If the O/R count is + we go with Mode 3 (chop)

If the O/R count is - or 0, we go with Mode 2 (streak)

This is true for both S40 and OTB4L and it is a strong consideration with F but F is a different animal because it is only concerned with what is happening on the weak side.

Now, with S40 and OTB4L I take it a step further and use the 0/R count to determine mode throughout the shoe; +=M3; -= M2

Why?

Because in the long run, the O/R count has an overall better hit rate than the 3rd bet rule.

And hit rate is extremely important because we are talking about our 3 bet. We want the best hit rate possible on it!

When you think about it and try it a couple times you will come to agree that the O/R count is the BEST way to determine Mode and gives us our highest hit rate on our 3 bets throughout the shoe.

[Guest]

Again, I thank you both for the good info. By the way, I forgot to tell you prior to my losses this week. I was like 20-3 on shoes.

But at that time I was betting smaller and flatting a lot on losses in the middle of the shoe by just looking at my 4d and just playing more solid and laying off more hands.

Then I noticed that if I did play nor on those, I probably would have won more than not. So I jumped up my initial bet and I played it as I should have, but for some reason, I got really scared and didn't play right, chose wrong systems and played it all wrong I guess.

So I am going back to playing smaller in my comfort zone to not care about these huge bets. Also when I was losing almost every shoe after wards, I was still betting big and bigger as if I was chasing... typically gambler right there, so this is for all those that get really comfortable winning almost every shoe and trying to up your bets, just fyi.

Cheers

Well there is a lot to be said for betting 2Hi when you are playing in the blind or in an unknown situation. New preshuffled cards is ALWAYS an unknown situation.

There is also a lot to be said for NOR+ which we ONLY play in a KNOWN situation. NOR+ is only for KNOWN situations known either from the tote board especially after a table search that has found a strong bias or from prior shoes when we have already played that shoe color.

It is good to be aggrssive in known situations with a strong bias.

It is just as important to be conservative in unknown situations.

Personally, I prefer to ONLY play known situations.

However, that has become near impossible in Vegas or anywhere else where preshuffled cards are used.

Some say there is no difference.

I say that's only because they haven't looked for the difference. The difference is huge and obvious to anyone who truly looks for it.

To me, going from Gold Strike, Tunica to Vegas is like going from day to night.