4D Disparity Measures

[newbacplayer]

A quick question. As I understand the disparity as described in the forum and in the videos, it is a number which can never decrease from whatever its maximum would have been for each of the four columns. However, it would seem that if one of the counts has been highly stable for five or six plays, the the actual disparity on that measure should be lower than the raw disparity figure of the disparity of the highest and lowest counts within the shoe.

Would it make sense to calculate the disparity within the most recent 10 plays, or something of this nature, rather than the entire shoe?

Thanks, Ellis, for your thoughts on this.

Greg

[Guest]

A quick question. As I understand the disparity as described in the forum and in the videos, it is a number which can never decrease from whatever its maximum would have been for each of the four columns. However, it would seem that if one of the counts has been highly stable for five or six plays, the the actual disparity on that measure should be lower than the raw disparity figure of the disparity of the highest and lowest counts within the shoe.

Would it make sense to calculate the disparity within the most recent 10 plays, or something of this nature, rather than the entire shoe?

Thanks, Ellis, for your thoughts on this.

Greg

Yes it would! Absolutely. And I've had lengthy discussions about this with John B.

A disparity of 6 over 10 plays can be a major concern. But a disparity of 6 over 40 plays it totally absorbable.

Therefore disparity alone makes a weak signal and cannot be fully trusted.

Plus disparity is an extra computation - easy enough but still time consuming right when we are trying to simplify.

What you CAN trust is your score. When it starts struggling you need to change what you are doing. It is the final judgement.

You can also trust the fact that the lowest disparity creates the most opposites. So betting opposites on the lowest count makes perfect mathematical sense until your score says stop. You stop, no matter the disparity and strictly bet high side.

But betting opposite the lowest count eventually hits a run. That is inevitable.

Sure, you could stop betting until the run ends, But eventually that breaks even - hopefully.

I don't think you can play Baccarat successfully W/O an effective way to go ON runs.

Sure, you could go ON that offending low side run. But Why? The 4D has the high side option which bets ON runs. Maybe a low side run is the best trigger to go high side??? High side likes runs.

The prog within a prog method is the tried and true way to handle runs.:

When you lose a 1,2 go ON the offending run with 1 unit. If that loses you are back to opposites but on the next run your OTR bet is 2. If that loses, the next run your OTR bet is 3. You are betting a secondary prog within a prog of 12358 because it is virtually impossible to lose the whole prog. In fact the shoe is likely to end first.

And you don't have to always make your secondary prog OTR. If ATR is mostly winning that bet position, fine, bet your secondary prog ATR (Against The Run). Whichever way the shoe history is favoring. And if it is back and forth, stick to one or the other.

Once successfully ON a run, shoe history can tell you whether to stay OTR or go back to opposites.

Look, that method of dealing with runs is tried and true. That is why I'm using it in the million dollar +5 program for both BaS40 and BaOTB4L.

I am seeing that it is inevitable that the 4DS will be incorporated in the +5 million dollar program. All things considered, it is another way of guaranteeing a +5 average or better. It might just be the BEST way.

[Quizzical1]

Yes it would! Absolutely. And I've had lengthy discussions about this with John B.

A disparity of 6 over 10 plays can be a major concern. But a disparity of 6 over 40 plays it totally absorbable.

Therefore disparity alone makes a weak signal and cannot be fully trusted.

Plus disparity is an extra computation - easy enough but still time consuming right when we are trying to simplify.

What you CAN trust is your score. When it starts struggling you need to change what you are doing. It is the final judgement.

You can also trust the fact that the lowest disparity creates the most opposites. So betting opposites on the lowest count makes perfect mathematical sense until your score says stop. You stop, no matter the disparity and strictly bet high side.

But betting opposite the lowest count eventually hits a run. That is inevitable.

Sure, you could stop betting until the run ends, But eventually that breaks even - hopefully.

I don't think you can play Baccarat successfully W/O an effective way to go ON runs.

Sure, you could go ON that offending low side run. But Why? The 4D has the high side option which bets ON runs. Maybe a low side run is the best trigger to go high side??? High side likes runs.

The prog within a prog method is the tried and true way to handle runs.:

When you lose a 1,2 go ON the offending run with 1 unit. If that loses you are back to opposites but on the next run your OTR bet is 2. If that loses, the next run your OTR bet is 3. You are betting a secondary prog within a prog of 12358 because it is virtually impossible to lose the whole prog. In fact the shoe is likely to end first.

And you don't have to always make your secondary prog OTR. If ATR is mostly winning that bet position, fine, bet your secondary prog ATR (Against The Run). Whichever way the shoe history is favoring. And if it is back and forth, stick to one or the other.

Once successfully ON a run, shoe history can tell you whether to stay OTR or go back to opposites.

Look, that method of dealing with runs is tried and true. That is why I'm using it in the million dollar +5 program for both BaS40 and BaOTB4L.

I am seeing that it is inevitable that the 4DS will be incorporated in the +5 million dollar program. All things considered, it is another way of guaranteeing a +5 average or better. It might just be the BEST way.

Yes Ellis, I have proof the S4D works this way (incremental play disparity checks). I jumped in on a live game at Black Orchid which was in mid shoe. All I did was record the last 4 outcomes and started my mechanical play after the next 3 hands (7 hand start) and ended up +5 within 9 plays. Good stuff!