mdb Vegas SHOES MDB | ECD GROUP | June 4, 2014

[ECD]

I have been practicing MDB with some old shoes, and thought others might be interested in a few more actual Vegas preshuffled shoes from earlier this year:

#1

B221131622

P11121411131111

B1113

#2

B131236112

B3131112113111

B112141123

#3

P1231111322111

B2111313422

B115

[gman72]

#1

B221131622

P11121411131111

B1113

Shoe #1 is a bust for me. Here's how I played it: image2014_06_04_11_15_220001.pdf

I'm out at play 27 with a -4 facing a 2 bet.

Played a little different than I have been, based on the rules posted this morning by Ellis. I normally would have stayed S1 (BaS40) after play 3, but the rules stated high 2's or 3's is S23 (BaOTB4L). Wouldn't have made a difference, still a losing shoe. What do you think?

[ECD]

I played it before Ellis published the new rules, and played it a bit differently. I started with S1 until after the 2,2 start. SAP was then 0,4,0,0. On play 12 I went to +5. I captured +4 and exited after loosing a 1 unit bet on play 13.

I understand the reason for selecting the system based on highest SAP count, but I do not see that doing that at the very start of the shoe is the best way to use the information. Under these new rules, you will pick a system based on whatever the very first event is. In this shoe, you went to s23 right after the first 2. As S1 does just fine with 2iar, I think that is too early to move off the base system. Now a 2,2 start looks like a better place to go to OTBL.

[gman72]

I played it before Ellis published the new rules, and played it a bit differently. I started with S1 until after the 2,2 start. SAP was then 0,4,0,0. On play 12 I went to +5. I captured +4 and exited after loosing a 1 unit bet on play 13.

I understand the reason for selecting the system based on highest SAP count, but I do not see that doing that at the very start of the shoe is the best way to use the information. Under these new rules, you will pick a system based on whatever the very first event is. In this shoe, you went to s23 right after the first 2. As S1 does just fine with 2iar, I think that is too early to move off the base system. Now a 2,2 start looks like a better place to go to OTBL.

I have to agree with you on the quick switch I think. In all my practice shoes, I seemed to do better sticking with S1 with high 1's or 2's. It wasn't until 3's got high that I would switch to S23.

I worked your other two shoes out and both were also a bust. Shoe #2 I was out -4 at play 21 facing a 2 bet. Shoe #3 I got to play all the way through, but never hit +5. I hit +4 at play 7 but never got over the hump and ended the shoe at the last play 47 with -3.

[Guest]

I played it before Ellis published the new rules, and played it a bit differently. I started with S1 until after the 2,2 start. SAP was then 0,4,0,0. On play 12 I went to +5. I captured +4 and exited after loosing a 1 unit bet on play 13.

I understand the reason for selecting the system based on highest SAP count, but I do not see that doing that at the very start of the shoe is the best way to use the information. Under these new rules, you will pick a system based on whatever the very first event is. In this shoe, you went to s23 right after the first 2. As S1 does just fine with 2iar, I think that is too early to move off the base system. Now a 2,2 start looks like a better place to go to OTBL.

OK, see if you can compose a hard rule that covers that yet doesn't contradict any other rule. I thought about that too but then went with KISS.

[gman72]

I played it before Ellis published the new rules, and played it a bit differently. I started with S1 until after the 2,2 start. SAP was then 0,4,0,0. On play 12 I went to +5. I captured +4 and exited after loosing a 1 unit bet on play 13.

I don't see how this is possible, could you post it so we can see. I'm not able to get the same results and would be curios how you did it? Thanks.

[Guest]

Shoe #1 is a bust for me. Here's how I played it: [ATTACH]3009[/ATTACH]

I'm out at play 27 with a -4 facing a 2 bet.

Played a little different than I have been, based on the rules posted this morning by Ellis. I normally would have stayed S1 (BaS40) after play 3, but the rules stated high 2's or 3's is S23 (BaOTB4L). Wouldn't have made a difference, still a losing shoe. What do you think?

Play 18: Why did you switch from OTB4L? 2s and 3s are tied for high. It can't get any more OTB4L than that. Stick it out to +4 and quit. You are up + 5 from your lowest point in a struggling shoe.

BTW way2fast, at play 12 I was only at +2???

[gman72]

Play 18: Why did you switch from OTB4L? 2s and 3s are tied for high. It can't get any more OTB4L than that. Stick it out to +4 and quit. You are up + 5 from your lowest point in a struggling shoe.

BTW way2fast, at play 12 I was only at +2???

This is straight from the rules you posted yesterday:

"4+ tied with anything is still S4+"

That's why I switched at play 18! SAP count after play 17 was 3,4,4,4.

If this system is mechanical and all we have to do is follow the rules, then that is what I did. The way I had been playing MDB I would not have switched, but I followed the rules as you posted yesterday when I worked this shoe. I think for now I'm going to stick with what was working and continue to focus on the two highest counts when making my system selection decisions. I think you covered this in a post today over in the question/comments thread.

[ECD]

OK, see if you can compose a hard rule that covers that yet doesn't contradict any other rule. I thought about that too but then went with KISS.

I can't. Personally, I do not believe 100% mechanical hard rules will win long term. I'm not against rules per se. Rules, by definition should be based on what works most of the time -- in other words based on experience. Based on my experience, I am not yet convinced that changing system based solely on the very first event in shoe is a winning move. I will use my experience to switch away from S40 when it stops doing well, and your GUIDANCE on how to use SAP to that is awesome.

[gman72]

Ok, I replayed shoe #1. Here it is: image2014_06_05_10_24_580001.pdf

This time I played like I had been before the rules thread came up yesterday. This is what I did and why.

Started S1 and stayed there till after play 10. Even though 2’s were higher, when I start a shoe I stay S1 until 3’s or 4’s go high, then I switch.

After play 10, 2’s and 3’s were high so that’s my signal to switch to S23, which I did at play 11.

I had a decision to make after play 17. SAP count is 3,4,4,4. Three counts are tied. I always find this a tough spot. In this situation I stick with the first two high counts recorded and wait to see if the third count that just jumped up (in this case the 4+) is a fluke or a trend. So I stay S23. A couple of plays later the SAP count continues to confirm S23.

After play 23, the SAP count goes high 1’s and 2’s now, so I switch back to S1 at play 24.

Continue to play this until a decision needs to be made after play 31. Now 2’s are highest and 4’s next highest, but 1’s have been coming on strong, so I decide to stay S1. S1 is confirmed a couple of plays later and I stay with it through play 43 where I finally pick up a +5 and I’m out.

This play doesn’t follow the rules to the letter, but I think I’m taking the spirit of the SAP count and applying it in a way that makes sense to me. Maybe I’m just lucky here, but it’s been working in my practice.

[jmz91]

I was hoping someone could replay this shoe for me. I started out s1, at play 8 I switched to s4. Any input/advice would be appreciated. Thanks in advance!

P 1511471

P 121221111314

B 1122333

[ECD]

This play doesn’t follow the rules to the letter, but I think I’m taking the spirit of the SAP count and applying it in a way that makes sense to me. Maybe I’m just lucky here, but it’s been working in my practice.

Your logic for using SAP in this example really makes sense to me.

[gman72]

I was hoping someone could replay this shoe for me. I started out s1, at play 8 I switched to s4. Any input/advice would be appreciated. Thanks in advance!

P 1511471

P 121221111314

B 1122333

Here is the shoe played out for you jmz91: image2014_06_06_16_18_240001.pdf

Started just as you did with S1, and switched to S4 at play 8 when the 4+ SAP count went high. The 4+ count stayed high, so I played the shoe out with S4. Never got ahead really anywhere, hit a high of +3 in the third column, but it went down hill to end at -4. Those three 3iars at the end would have preferred S23, but the SAP count didn't point you there in time because the 4+ count had gone so high and then the shoe ended.

[Guest]

Here is the shoe played out for you jmz91: [ATTACH]3012[/ATTACH]

Started just as you did with S1, and switched to S4 at play 8 when the 4+ SAP count went high. The 4+ count stayed high, so I played the shoe out with S4. Never got ahead really anywhere, hit a high of +3 in the third column, but it went down hill to end at -4. Those three 3iars at the end would have preferred S23, but the SAP count didn't point you there in time because the 4+ count had gone so high and then the shoe ended.

Right, I didn't do any better with this shoe. We should have an MM rule that says something like: When your score hits 0 for the 3rd time, try to get out at +1 or even 0.

I'm betting this was a regular cards shoe because we simply don't see such shoes with preshuffled. It starts off with 4 4+ W/O a 3, then 4 2s W/O a 3, and then 3 3s. We would be doing very well to get out at 0. Some shoes, 0 is the name of the game, then change tables, or even casinos. Some tables are just not worth our time.

[Guest]

Your logic for using SAP in this example really makes sense to me.

I think its pretty much 6 of one and half a doz of the other. Sometimes you're better off to stick with S1 longer and other times you're better off sticking to SAP. What if the shoe had started 1222? SAP would already be at +5

I like the idea of keeping it purely mechanical.

It depends on how much we know about the table before we start. If we don't know anything, we've got no business starting at play 2.

[Guest]

This is straight from the rules you posted yesterday:

"4+ tied with anything is still S4+"

That's why I switched at play 18! SAP count after play 17 was 3,4,4,4.

If this system is mechanical and all we have to do is follow the rules, then that is what I did. The way I had been playing MDB I would not have switched, but I followed the rules as you posted yesterday when I worked this shoe. I think for now I'm going to stick with what was working and continue to focus on the two highest counts when making my system selection decisions. I think you covered this in a post today over in the question/comments thread.

Ha, that's not what I meant. But I see how you could take it that way. We know that S23 likes BOTH 2s and 3s. That's why we call it S23. So any time 2s and 3s are tied for high, we are likely best off with S23.

But S4+ likes 4+ and 1's so that was also a good choice.