Another Newbie.

[Ms. Dee]

Hello.

I have read through the NOR manual a few times and I think I understand most of it. I have already been practicing on a few free apps and on some of the online casinos that allow you to play without signing up. However, I have always felt that the best way to really learn is in the real atmosphere. This way you get the distractions. Maybe someone wouldn't mind showing a rookie around from South Florida. Thanks a bunch in advance.

Ms. Dee

[Ms. Dee]

Hi everyone.

Here's a shoe I played online. I won 5 units and left but, I think someone here could've done better.

B3121141111112

B11111113244

B21111152121. Ended here since I was up 5 units.

[Guest]

Hi everyone.

Here's a shoe I played online. I won 5 units and left but, I think someone here could've done better.

B3121141111112

B11111113244

B21111152121. Ended here since I was up 5 units.

So then, this is your first personal lesson.

Well FIRST, welcome to the forum Ms Dee!

OK, it was an on line shoe so we know it is regular cards.

This means our first inclination is to play NOR.

Your first clue might have been the last shoe played with this color cards.

This shoe is so TB4L (time before last) oriented that I'm guessing the last time this color shoe was dealt it also favored TB4L.

Your next clue is the shoe begins with a 3. TB4L likes 1's and 3+s. It hates 2s. Shoes beginning with 3s are usually TB4L.

Yes, unfortunately you get an early 2. BUT, you have ONE unfavorable TB4L event vs 4 favorable TB4L events confirming TB4L early on.

As soon as I saw your shoe started with 31211 I already knew it was TB4L. In fact I pretty much knew when I saw it started with a 3.

But 31211 is so TB4L favorable I'm already thinking TB4L Exploit.

We have 2 Exploit progressions: 3456 and U1D1M2. I just played the 3456 yesterday so today I went with U1D2M2 just so you guys could see both in action.

TB4L is not in your manual but it is coverd in the forum under S40M1- exactly the same thing except for the first bet S4oM1 starts with an opposite bet but after that it is TB4L. So you are going to bet on whatever won the hand before last.

U1D1M2 means, starting at 1 and never going below 1, you bet up 1 when you lose and down 1 when you win. M2 means mandatory 2 - You always bet 2 after 1 regardless whether the 1 wins or loses. If you win half your bets you win the shoe and all your bet odds are 50/50 so the game odds expect you to win half your bets. And if you are following a strong bias, like you are here, chances are you will win considerably MORE than half your bets.

As it turns out in this shoe TB4L wins 34 bets and loses 17. Now that is a highly biased shoe - an Exploit shoe. We don't see many so we need to ALWAYS be alert to them. They can do wonders for you overall win rate. If you didn't know for sure early on, it should certainly occur to you somewhere in the 8iar ZZ run in the first col.

From a money management standpoint you hit your highest Player Advantage (ROI) by quitting at any 1 bet or a winning 2 bet. But we are also going by half decade cash Mgt. I could have quit at +30 and again at +35. But I was winning such a high % of my bets that I kept going. But then when I hit +41 and then lost a 1 bet - that is a mandatory quit point for us.

BTW, I would have scored even higher had I played a 3456 and my risk would have been lower. But I just showed you such a shoe just yesterday.

So here is how a pro would have played your shoe:

TB4L is, of course, the exact opposite of OTB4L.

Whoops, I see I added my score wrong at play 15. So we actually made 2 additional units.

[Guest]

So why is a 3456 actually less risky than a 1234 ???

Because, add up the numbers.

If you lose an entire 3456 you are 6 first bets down. Not good BUT

If you lose a 1234 you are 10 first bets down - Game over!

So why isn't TB4L in the NOR manual?

My mistake! Back in the '90s the 400 year old TB4L was the most common Bac system played. That one system kept casino Bac profits down to 3%. Casinos went all out to eliminate TB4L shoes with their card prep and shuffle technique. They were very successful. TB4L shoes virtually disappeared from the face of the Earth. When I released NOR there simply were no TB4L shoes so I didn't include it.

But along came on line shoes. Those guys aren't nearly as sophisticated and TB4L shoes made a strong come back.

And along came preshuffled cards - Fixed. Casinos figured players no longer knew how to play TB4L. And from what I observed in Vegas 2 weeks ago, the casinos were right. Players lost drastically to TB4L shoes because they had never seen them before and had no idea how to play them.

So in the MDB forum, I am reintroducing TB4L and redefining NOR.

[Ms. Dee]

Wow! I still have much to learn. Thanks for the advice. I'll go over TB4L. Looking forward to the seminar on Saturday.

[tsenks]

OK, it was an on line shoe so we know it is regular cards.

Hi Ellis,

How do we know that the on-line shoe is normally a Regular Cards?

I used to play on-line also (Thailand on-line casino and Philippines on-line casino), before they start the shoe, they open the cards that wrapped with plastic and use the shuffling machine and shuffle the cards in front of the us.

So this should consider Regular Cards or Fixed Cards (Pre-shuffled)?

Thanks

Tsen

[ECD]

I don't understand how 3456 is less risky than 1234. I see how 1234 add up to 10. And 3456 add up to 18 units. So why is 3456 less risky?

[tsenks]

I don't understand how 3456 is less risky than 1234. I see how 1234 add up to 10. And 3456 add up to 18 units. So why is 3456 less risky?

Hi! Nazar,

See the example, assuming that I already won 1st 10 bets as follows:

If using 1234,

1st 10 bets win = 10 units,

11th loss = -1 unit

12th loss = -2 units

13th loss = -3 units

14th loss = -4 units, total loss = -10 units

Total win (+10 units) less total loss (-10 units) = 0 units

If using 3456,

1st 10 bets win = 30 units,

11th loss = -3 unit

12th loss = -4 units

13th loss = -5 units

14th loss = -6 units, total loss = -18 units

Total win (+30 units) less total loss (-18 units) = 12 units

See the difference?? This is based on the assumption that you already won in the 1st 10 bets.

Then you will be ask, what happen if I loss in the 1st 4 bets....... whoops! this is different stories....... This need Mr Ellis to answer.

Thanks

Tsen

[Guest]

I don't understand how 3456 is less risky than 1234. I see how 1234 add up to 10. And 3456 add up to 18 units. So why is 3456 less risky?

It is ONLY less risky when you are winning your first bets more often than you are losing them.

In other words, when you are playing the right system. The right system is the system that wins the most first bets.

You have to think in terms of base bet - because we play in terms of base bets. So you have to think in terms of how many base bets am I down?

You go up to a 3456 prog when your hit rate on your first bet is high - when you are winning bets in a row.

And you think of risk in terms of losing an entire prog.

If you lose a 123 you are 6 first bets down.

If you lose a 345 you are only 4 first bets down.

The whole idea of U1D2 is to make it easier to get back to your base bet.

When you lose a 1,2 you are 3 base bets down.

But when you lose a 3,4 you are only a third of a base bet down. Much easier to recover - therefore less risk.

So OK you lose 4 bets iar.

If you are betting 1234 you are 10 first bets down - very difficult to recover. BUT

If you are betting 3456 you are only 6 first bets down - much easier to recover, therefore less risk.

We assume that U1D2 will get us back to our base bet because we need to win fewer bets than we lost to get back to our base.

Look at the other side of the coin:

If you win 4 bets iar betting a 123 you are 4 units up.

when you win 4 bets iar betting 345 you are 12 units up.

Once you are winning first bets more often than you are losing them the 345 carries less risk than the 123.

Another benefit of the 345 is you can play $5 units at a $15 table.

Look at it this way:

If I lose a 345 and then win a 333 I am 1 first bet down. I can be even in ONE bet.

If I lose a 123 and then win a 111 I am 3 first bets down. It will take me at least 3 bets to get even. See that?

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

How do we know that the on-line shoe is normally a Regular Cards?

I used to play on-line also (Thailand on-line casino and Philippines on-line casino), before they start the shoe, they open the cards that wrapped with plastic and use the shuffling machine and shuffle the cards in front of the us.

So this should consider Regular Cards or Fixed Cards (Pre-shuffled)?

Thanks

Tsen

At least so far to date, I've never seen an on line casino use preshuffled cards. And I don't think we will. The way things stand, on line casinos have the regular cards market captured. If they are smart, they'll keep it that way. Players prefer regular cards over fixed cards. Vegas has been dieing on the vine ever since they went to preshuffled cards. If on line casinos stick to regular cards they will capture a bigger share of the overall Baccarat market.