Predicting ties

[brad01]

Well it is commonly said that ties are the worst bet to make as they mathematically occur 1 in 10 and only pay 8:1

Nobody could argue with that fact on the long term

Same as people say baccarat is the best table game to play due to the low house edge

People will also say that the odds favour banker slightly so you should place more bets on banker

I agree with all of the above IN THE LONG TERM

But our short term aim is not the long term its the short term

If we can consistently win in the short term then we will win in the long term

Most players here know that the .5% edge to banker makes no difference to their game as in the short term the bias will be one way or another and that .5% doesn't come into it

They also know that at any 1 time in the game the odds are not necessarily 50 / 50 - the could be but they could be in favour of a banker or player bet in which case the odds are not 50/50 - that's how we gain an edge

SO THEN IF THE ODDS OF A TIE IS GREATER THAN 1 IN 10 THEN A 8:1 PAYOFF SUDDENLY MAKES A TIE BET LOOK PRETTY DAMN GOOD

How can you predict a tie?

Heres a few things work for me:

Ties are running hot - several in a row or 2 in 5, 3 in 8 etc

There hasn't been a tie for over 10 plays or more (ideally 15 - 20)

Player and Banker are running close

Repeats are high

Naturals are high

When several of the above happen together I tend to find the odds of a tie are greater than 1 in 10

When I'm ahead I will put up some bets on ties as a few units risked to hit a tie is a good risk / reward

With 3 hands to go I predicted a tie and bet for 2 hands

I missed the last 1 by a few seconds and it was a tie on the last hand !!

Next game I saw there was no ties for 15 or so hands and there was a few naturals and P/B were running close / repeats were high

I hit it on 2nd bet!

Any comments or ways other people predict ties?

[ClarkD4]

In my short experience, predicting Ties is purely a subjective idea. Meaning, people think for themselves they found some 'criteria' and stick to them, hoping they would prove successful (well, the same is also true, more or less, for all baccarat systems predicting Player or Banker - but for Ties, they seem to be a lot more subjective).

For example, one my 'criteria' for predicting Ties was, same as Brad, no ties for 15-20 plays. I encountered shoes with no ties in the first 30-40 plays! or one tie at the beginning, one at the end and that's it. Others...I've seen 6 ties in the first 15 plays or 4 ties in 5 plays (second part of the shoe). I play only online and also one of my criteria was - when I saw 3-4 ties close one to another, the next shoe (same cards, hand shuffled) I had the tendency of playing Tie in the same portion of the shoe as previously. Ex : if 3-4 Ties appeared between hands 30 and 40 last shoe, the next shoe I would play Tie between hand 30 and 40, hoping at least one Tie would arrive. Sometimes it did, but a lot of times it didn't and I lost big money on ties.

So in the end I gave up, sticking to Kevin's 5D only, which for me works very good. (Thank you again, Kevin, for your ideas and the generous sharing with us!)

[brad01]

Well thanks for your reply Clark

That's a fair answer.

But one thing I would add is that ties can also be useful in being used as insurance bets.

Some casinos have twisted the rules around to deceive people and sometimes the only way is to not play or to place a tie insurance bet.

I know our best players do that already as they have mentioned that before

For example over here we have tables with banker 6 paying half and then we have 'zero commission tables'

You get comfy chairs to sit in but the house takes all bets on ties so if you bet P / B and a tie comes the house takes your money

In return they give you a 2:1 payout or something for a 3 card natural.

Also betting ties you have to get used to a much higher standard deviation than P/B so you cant possibly expect to get a 50% win rate or above

Much the same as betting inside bets on roulette.

If you don't like the risk vs reward then stick to outside bets or P/B

I think if you are ahead and you predict a tie then risking a few units for a high payoff could be ok