My Answer to Johnny A

[Keith Smith]

Hi, Keith,

I don't see much going on in the private paid section........according to the title of discussion | topic, in fact, the forum seems to be becoming pretty quiet.

I think the quality of the discussion is what has value and merit.  One of the complaints I got was there is a new system every month for sale. I am trying to make a reasonably priced forum that has good information and contributions from everyone.  We have learned that it is the collective wisdom and insights of many and not a self-proclaimed genius that makes a forum and Professional Players Club have values to everyone. This is the reason for creation the section called System Seller reviews. 

Think it cost me about 6 or 7 hundred when I joined about 6 or 7 years ago....when unnamed was still around. Plus seminars I attended in Vegas......and nothing has worked, none of many unnamed authored systems he posted on the forum, seem like a new one every few months or so........and none of them worked !!! I mean, think about it Keith, if he had a real winner...why would he have to refinance his house, couple years back.....and one computer that was always breaking down? A man that says he made millions of seminars, books, systems ......never a losing day when he lived in Atlantic City.........should have a house paid for at his age ...and at least two computers !! :)...Right ?............and not be trying to sell nonworking bac or blackjack systems.....but live in Vegas instead of in the boonies of Arkansas........and make a grand a day !! But than of course I never seen Unnamed win after seminar play......:)

While I agree, all systems work sometimes, the lesson learned that you always need two approaches minimum and there is always subjectivity in the approach.  I am not certain why others only demand from our forum lifetime memberships, it seems you should demand this from those who wrote that and claimed it and got the majority of the funds.  As for pricing, it should be extremely clear now who insisted on the pricing and who the beneficiary of it was.

I am quite certain that much was learned from the seminars and also from the approaches you studied,  at least I hope.  Many of the concepts and thought processes have much value in winning at Baccarat, I doubt few would disagree.

I have spent enough Keith......on BTC........with seminars, etc.......and it still remains a flip of the coin game...no really method that wins consistently that I have seen !! And I don't see anyone really raving and ranting ..............oh maybe few guys...Oz........Way To Fast...........McVince....

I have always said, even players who are consistent winners, have to be careful not to think you win because you have discovered the magic sauce. When I listen and observe others who play, I hear things that they assume to be true when in fact they are speculating, to your point a coin flip.  Now those speculations and theories may be good guesses and assumption, but they are unproven.  For instance, I remember a few players said to me,  certain things happen in every shoe on counts and events.  Well in an extreme example yes you could say with pretty good certainty that you will see a 1 in a row in 72 hands.  And yes in a bell curve you will see 99.97% of events fall into the realm of normalcy.  But can you predict that in any subsets of hands of Baccarat i.e a  game), well sometimes? 

If the game is random, the counts ( when I say counts I mean SAP count or any tracking mechanism of events)  are falling into those parameters,  and if you win,  you are winning because you are betting what usually occurs in a population of events ( not one game). Sure a game can produce equal results of counts and ups and down always moving towards the zero line, most will..its just science,  but in a random game, this is normal; it is when randomness offers up the extreme variations due to chance when you get burnt.  Sure money management and common sense betting can alleviate some of this,  but in the end what you must track to prove your approach works is can you predict more hands that win than lose by the statistics you keep. That is the true statistic of a winning system.  After all, if you think about it what else could it be? We have seen this in Stats for Profits if you bet a negative progression, that after 3 two in a rows go to 3s and continue to do this you will have statistical resistants, but if you continue, sure enough, you have games where there are 10 consecutive 2 in a rows without a 3, eating up all you made and losing the vig.

The lesson here for me is that 1,2,3,4,5 in a row happen all the time.  In Baccarat we seem to think in some games they tend to follow patterns,  maybe but not near as much as we believe. Even those who think that,  have two schools of thought, bet what occurs will continue, bet what occurs will not continue. All bases are covered but only one can be correct in each game so to your point it’s a toss-up. We are back to Banker or Player, two will stay 2’s or2’s will go to threes etc.

I have contend from my Six Sigma training is Assignable Cause Variation is the only reason a game will be non-random.  and for the most part it is almost impossible to prove from the player's side.   We look at patterns and counts when what we need to find, is reasons shuffles card prep clumped cards etc.   The best thing that I have seen so far again is only a statistic, my tracking seems to indicate that long run TBL shoes have more ties. It seems to insure opposite runs and longer runs for some reason, cause I don’t know only have the statistic. I look at specific casinos. To circle back, the games that have a true bias that we predict are those that have process variation as the cause.  If we can identify those games then we can assign a system to beat them because they will. If you have two di and one of the di has three 4s on it that is a process variation or flaw, the di’s are not similar needless to say you would bet 4’s would come up more, it the same principle, find the flaw and you find the variation that will continue. If not the game is random and banker wins slightly more than player, and it is next to impossible to know when a long run or sequence of any opposites or repeats will occur except you will see what is supposed to happen, mostly events of 1,2,3,4,5 with diminishing frequency occurring at undefinable locations, unless you know what cards are coming.

 

I respect you Keith and liked you, having met you in Vegas. Maybe give me like a 3 day pass......to look around the private....maybe I would discover I am wrong !! LOL

 

A day does not go by when someone doesn’t ask me for a free pass, mention a life long membership or some other reason not to join and get the benefit that others have.  If this forum was free to host maybe one day I will simply sell advertising and open it all up but now I want it to be a professional players club.  It has no commitment you can cancel whenever you want to and it’s $50 bucks to join.

 

Take care Bro..........thanks for writing !!

johnny/albuquerque

 

ps..........yeah , would love something that really worked well...that I could use at my casino right by my house...just 2 miles down the road !! google Sandia Casino.......nice place.........plus we have a few more right around Albuquerque...real close by !! All have Baccarat ! WHO NEEDS VEGAS ANYMORE !!!....ITS NOT LIKE THE OLE DAYS...WHEN I WORKED FOR TRANS WORLD AIRLINES , AND FLEW UP EVERY WEEK TO BET FOOTBALL.........FLEW FREE OF COURSE AND STILL DO......Now the place is crazy with crime , drugs , rip off hotels and there tacked on hotel fee's and parking fee's and resort fee's...........and its not so much of the cost...but the principal of it...ripping off the tourists !!.......I may , just make another trip or 2...just to check out Stadium Baccarat at the Palazoo............but thats about it for Vegas for this ole guy !

Tell ya works for me at my casino 2 miles down the road..........Sandia Casino........wait for 3 in a row..bet opposite........pick up a $100.........and go home !! A friend of a friend , went to Vegas almost every week from Phoenix and made a killing using it !! Found it in some gambling book from a second hand store...he bet a 124 progression............if he lost that progression..........than he followed the run with flat betting !! Believe it or not..won a ton of money !!! Hard to believe...but claimed it was true !!

TAKE CARE KEITH.......AND BLESSINGS !!

Good approach but my contention with those systems is the cards and casino have no idea when you leave.  You are betting effectively an MDB using statistical resistance to runs to your advantage. We use to do it in the 90s betting a negative progression against three in a row.  Eventually, unless you find an assignable cause or are lucky you will lose all you won due to vig and longer runs.

[brad01]

Great post Keith

Although I'm sure you would make heaps more money if you weren't so honest!

[johnnycs1]

GREAT POST KEITH !

johnny /abq

 

[Juggernaut]

Really great post brother, appreciate you! Don't change who you are at the core! 

[jackeiiibiz]

I've only been on this site 2 months but it is great. Please don't open it up.