wolfat
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Posts posted by wolfat
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if you are interested in this matter, there's an interesting article here
wgm8.com
there are many issues, look for "roads" or similar, very well explained
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21 minutes ago, allphar said:
Kevin, I use a bet selection as McVince has described as descending events.
(I will not link to it here, as it is in the premium section)
I have tested it on about 200 shoes and the variance is very low. 200 shoes is not much but maybe others can chime in on this.
Two units on this shoe I was on.
I will be working on strengthening it. i.e if there are indications to not place the bet.
Allphar,
I checked this out in the past, but for me it doesn't give advantage. From my experience (I mean in the casino WHERE I PLAY) it's a 50% bet.
It works well in choppy shoes, with shortage of walls, like this one you presented (3 walls of 2-only- vs 7 singled multiples) but in streaky shoes it's a pain...
Likely in your casino you watch more choppy shoes than me... It needs to adapt to present conditions!
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Lou, great post!
I actually play Vinsap6 as a base, and mix it with the kind of play you well describe in your post.
I deploy one col for the sap count and two more cols for
Player Single/multiple
Banker Single/ multiple
With some practice you will notice some nice patterns .
Sometimes they go straight forward, sometimes ZZ, sometimes appear in groups of two.
On the long run there's no advantage in betting this or that continuously, as the law of figures is perfectly respected, I checked this out ;
but you can get some good plays separating P and B outcomes; consider that each col is long approx 15 decisions, by the end of the shoe, so everything is concentrated in few events. When a pattern holds, you can really clear it up!
...but need patience in nowhere shoes! don't forget virtual bets after 2 losses iar, they often save your ass in bad shoes!
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I suggest a couple of things:
- this thread shouldn't be moved to the premium section?
- kevin should start a new thread. I propose to call it "K PROJECT".
K stays for kevin, that's the promoter
K stays for key to open baccarat doors
what do you think?
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Great K,
I was really curious of how we can turn all this stuff (and much more) into something worthwhile but I'm here
to give my contribution.
Every long path starts with a little step...
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2 hours ago, Pando said:
Hi allphar
Apologies for not giving you a direct answer previously
I put all my baccarat cards in my computer and it shows that in more than 90% of ALL shoes from where I play, if there is a 4IAR or more, then there will be another one in the shoe.
Now of course its not that straight forward that the 4+IAR's will be sequential. The shoe you posted is a good example of that. It is a shoe with very high 3's, approximately double what is mathematically expected.
In a shoe that starts with the 2 x 3's before the first 4IAR, I am very wary and do not make the bet unless 4+IAR's start to dominate more than 3's. By that time we are into a different kind of shoe anyway.
I find this trigger very use full when the shoe goes something like 11122211156111121111123 (an actual shoe I played) - then I would play the unconfirmed 3 to go to 4. ( It did you to 4, and ended up 7IAR).
It is also useful when the end of the shoe is approaching, and there has only been one 4+IAR in the shoe. I would play any 3 to go to 4 in that situation.
Its a trigger that works very well for me.
regards Pando
Pando,
agree with this, also from my experience.
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hey guys!
no more ideas? COME ON!
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On 24/8/2017 at 6:32 AM, wolfat said:
I want to add these ones:
After a cluster of at least 5 multiples (IE 2,3,3,2,4,3,5,etc) or. a so called "wall" of 5 or more events,
and you get 2 singles iar (confirmed), usually this ZZ run will continue for a while.
IE. 3,3,2,4,2,5,2, 1, 1 (trigger) > bet otr till -1/0+2
if this attack is unsuccessful can be repeated after the next 2 singles iar, one more time
btw
you can do something similar in the opposite case (cluster of opts vs single multiples) but it's more complicated as more factors are involved and it would require a kind of work that I think is off topic.
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Fresh shoe, from this morning, as a good sample for this trigger:
It's a basically a RPTs shoe till mid shoe (that allowed me a nice profit)
B 2 1 442 1 3224432 11 (trigger) 1W 2L (notice I usually bet 2 units on the first bet and 1 on the next, so to end with a profit in any case, when getting the first win) 2 1 4 11 (trigger) 1w 1 w 1w 1w 1w 1w 3L end
that's how it works most of the time. Here I decided to play the run till the end as singles was veeery weak during the shoe and need to recover a bit (11 multiples vs 2 singles till the trigger).
Notice that, if singles was strong in a shoe, this trigger is not so reliable, as the wall is the answer to dominant singles.
Triggers NEED to be played in a contest, and you must ponder about the big picture; it's NOT something like "ooh, I see this, bet that!".
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I want to add these ones:
After a cluster of at least 5 multiples (IE 2,3,3,2,4,3,5,etc) or. a so called "wall" of 5 or more events,
and you get 2 singles iar (confirmed), usually this ZZ run will continue for a while.
IE. 3,3,2,4,2,5,2, 1, 1 (trigger) > bet otr till -1/0+2
if this attack is unsuccessful can be repeated after the next 2 singles iar, one more time
btw
you can do something similar in the opposite case (cluster of opts vs single multiples) but it's more complicated as more factors are involved and it would require a kind of work that I think is off topic.
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3 minutes ago, CT70 said:
W
What do you mean by +2/-1 ?
CT70
I mean stop at the first loss or when I get 2 units, In this case, as I have no history, I leave the shoe go as I don't face long run very often...
Sorry I should have written: +2/0/-1
obviously referring to this trigger...
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K,
here are my favourite. I don't believe it works everywhere but they do it in my casino.
4,2 2,4. go for RPTs
when a shoe start with 2 RPTs or 3 OPTs iar, I go otr till +2/-1
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Hi K,
I am currently retired and still "curious" about the game, after more than 25 yrs si...
count on me!
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it has changed into
betselection.is
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11 minutes ago, Jwlhc said:
Thanks for your reply. I live in NYC so unfortunately because there are no live dealers here and the closest casino is Empire where baccarat is played electronically on computer, the best I can do is to judge live shoes playing through Vivo through Facebook. The more I practice using NOR for starters and learning how to read the shoes, I'll have a better way to answer your question. If there's a way you suggest I analyze the shoes I practice on through the live dealers, let me know?
When you manage well basics bet selections like tbl, otbl, sys40, etc you could read a thread titled
LAST 3 EVENTS METHOD
I think bery useful for everyone.
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Welcome aboard,
NOR is a good way to start as you can learn basics. Cannot run if you don't know walk properly.
After that more factors need to be taken into consideration:
what kind of shoes your casino throw to you?
how manage variance properly
learn to be flexible because there's no unique recipe to beat the house, need to adapt to current playing conditions
etc
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7 hours ago, johnnycs1 said:
BaccDJ126..
Senior moment and cannot remember how S40M3 GOES ??
I did a search on the forum , but nothing came up...
I have a Frankenstein Method........is the author a former Vegas resident but now lives in Utah I believe ?
He displays , on Youtube, an actual shoe using his method with his voice disguised , is that the same Frankenstein you mention ?
Thanks......
S40 M3 means:
bet opposite till 3 losses in a row, then go on the run till a loss, then restart with opposites
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allphar,
at first we have to define the word "variance".
For me that's the spread between losing and winning decisions, disregarding the amount bet.
The avg for a statistical spread like this is the square root of the total decisions played.
So, on avg. in 100 decisions played you should be +/- 10, to be on avg
IMPORTANT: I am speaking about decisions PLAYED, not only recorded.
If you are at +20, you are performing better than avg spread.
In 100 shoes, that are ar. 7000 decisions, if you bet ar. 50% of them (so 3500 decisions) your avg should be +/-59
...and so on.
I always keep record of my spread for many reasons but the most two important are:
a) I track how I am performing compared to the past
b ) I know, as I track my highs and lows, "more or less" if some winnings or losses are expected
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LadyBacc,
I am so sorry but what you are looking for DOES NOT EXIST on earth!
I am a senior member here, I play every day and started my gambling career in 1986.
I am not a millionaire because to make millions you must bet high stakes; I bet in my comfort zone around 100 euros avg bet and I am happy with it. I pay for my expenses of a decent living, I no need more, from my point of view.
From the technical aspect of this, no winning player here plays mechanical, nobody uses neg. progs.
Everybody, in different ways, plays FOLLOW THE SHOE. There are so many nuances in this game that an entire life is not long enough to master everything BUT everybody study and learn every given day to be successful at this game.
So, my advice is: don't waste money looking for something does not exist (mechanical system), focus on the stuff we have at BTC and try to find your way to beat baccarat, nobody can do this for you BUT members are here and willing to help you during this journey.
If you are seriously interested in being a part of our community, join the premium members forum and you will get access to all BTC stuff, old and new and, most important, can exchange infos and share experience and getbhelp from other members.
Here there's no competition, everybody share his own discoveries or simply a shoe to comment, THIS make you grow as a player and likely makes you a successful player like many of us.
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6 hours ago, allphar said:
Hi wolfat, When you mention "safe", I'm assuming you mean the (flat bet) drawdown would be quite low over a good range of played shoes?
Also assuming that is doesn't involve negative progressions?
Hi allphar,
by safe I mean exactly this: NO progs envolved, a serious bet selection, easy in betting placement, with low variance.
Here at BTC we strongly believe in bet selection because this game is not always a 50-50% game, more you learn, more you stay away from progs, that are the main door for losing your bankroll; more you learn, more you get new aspects of this game you never imagined before.
No magic potions, no HG, hard work, sharing of experiences, brainstorming. Our members learn from each others, it's priceless what you van get from our professionals, living this game every day.
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6 hours ago, LOU30 said:
Hey Oz... I need a new keyboard! Coffee everywhere .
Lou, Lou,
you KNOW that when reading OZs post you must be like in a surgery: no food, no drink, etc
...some guys never learn!
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K & K,
many thanks for posting your video describing your betting placement technique.
I found it reaaly interesting. What I like is that in this game we never stop learning, investigating, discovering !
I need to ponder it a bit, to fix it in my mind but I like it. It's safe and everybody can manage it.
Again, thanks for sharing your work!
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Fine!
I will do it with another nickn, cannot miss to be in the wall of (in)famous!
hahahaha
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Mechanical versus Educated Guess Work
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Hi sputnik,
may I ask what's the purpose of this post?
you think to share the method (maybe to be improved by someone) or what?
I could be interested as your parameters are the same of my play.
thank you
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