wolfat
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Posts posted by wolfat
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IMO, this is due. to Variance start working. You cannot win long term more than 60-65% of your bets. When your time arrive, you will lose to put things under the right average. If you will be able to ride these waves, you can get some additional profits at your game.
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I play at 888 and use hand shuffling everytime
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35 minutes ago, brad01 said:
And I actually heard that Norm used to play and win at roulette as well......
I can confirm that...
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my decision is a NO BET here but if I need to bet I'd go B.
My choice would have been to bet OTR after 3Bs as B side has mostly 2s.
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Vinny,
my suggestion is the more obvious one: read all recent threads in private forum and get a general idea, then decide what's your style of play and what's the best way to betting it...
ONE of the most interesting is: "Are casino creating biases..."
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These are the original rules, in brief:
"We can call it RD1 for now.
Starting at play 2 with a 1 bet, bet U1D2 M2 on repeats except bet straight down when you lose the bet under a 1 in a row and straight down when you lose the bet under a 1, 2 (under a 2 in a row that immediately follows a 1 in a row). Otherwise, repeats (Under the previous circle.)
You'll see that now you beat every straight run, every ZZ run, every TT run as well as the 212's."
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Hi,
nott too much to add at this thread...
Just wanna say that your stop-loss must be proportional to your avg. winning shoe.
Flat betting will prevent you from losing, if you are ready to lose an amoumt close to your avg winning, this doesn hurt you too much.
Personally I make my probe bet at 1/2 u, tasting water and then switching to standard unit of 1 when getting results.
For me -4/-5 is the max loss I can allow to a shoe but dont forget to bet when you have a strong reason for doing it.
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7 minutes ago, douglasb53 said:
Good question Wolfat . I was also wondering if you win your 1st 3 goes to 4 after you see a 4+IAR do you bet that multiple times when you see other 3IAR's or are you done?
This is also my question...
I guess that if 3s are low/LC you should continue, anyway you need also to look at last events. It happened to me that, in a shoe full of 3s till half then switched to 4s+ that heavily hit in the last part of the shoe. So... be ready to adapt your play!
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On 10/8/2016 at 9:01 PM, Baccman said:
Ok, we have 93 % winning triggers using this rule...i 60 shoes that i have tested it was 130 triggers and 122 of them won...that means that after first 4 + there was not 3×3 after it. If we were using 1 2 4 NP we would have won 122units and lose 8×7 = 56...that means 66 units for 60 shoes....some of this shoes were very short and sdnt had any trigger... if someone is happy with score he can play like this...Pando and i have same result from different shoes, it means that you sholud get same on tour shoes. NOW, big question is... do we need to stay on the run all the way...i think that we can use this rules...we can go on the run all the way if 4+ is stronger then 4, also go on the run if 4+ are not stronger but run have gone to 5....then do not bet if 3s are MC by 3 point spread and stop to bet when you see 3×3s.
Any oppinions ?
Baccman
I would like to put here my two cents...
I don't know how many 4s or 4s+ you find in your shoes, we can assume that you can find, on avg, 3-4? so its difficult, unless you find an early long run, to have a reliable SAP count to compare them. IMO it should be better track your own stats about 4s and 4s+, after some events, I think you should be amazed about patterns you will see...
About not betting on runs when 3s are high or MC, this is extremely savvy and safe.
I have not detailed stats on 3s going 4s after a 4s/+ but since Pando talked about it, I gave it a smart eye and mostly is a pattern that holds, win some money with it.
...but I have a question for Pando: when you get the first 4s or 4s+, you continue looking for other long runs? I know you assume that at this point 3s are low, so it's a good idea attack for 3iar going 4, but do you have stats at regard? thanks
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Avion, I agree with you. Helping others is a great thing for many reasons:
IE you can revise your own strategy, you feel good doing something for other people, you return part of knowledge got in the past and have the opporunity to leave a heritage of what you learnt in decades...
On the other side the "student" need to put big effort in learning and must be ready to listen the master. I remember two yrs ago I teach my technique to a guy from Macau. I dedicate him a lot of time and... when he had been "in the battle" start behaving like a compulsive gambler and lost the b.roll. I wasted my time with someone hadn't the mindset for professional play. ...Other times I have had nice and worthwhile experiences with many good players.
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9 hours ago, Pando said:
I always look for a shoe that starts with no 1's, such as 324, something like that but it can be played from the second hand of the shoe
...but starting from 2nd hand you cannot know how the shoe will go in advance, it's just something like a "probing" bet?
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I'd like to discuss about this because I am a conservative player, but think that sometimes I am TOO MUCH conservative and I am not able to exploit some bias I watch in the shoe.
I also think that a win is a win and only 1 unit is not bad at all; I know that adding these single units, by the end of the month, thay become real huge money!
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To set when a side get "lucky cards" I consider this when it gets 1 of the 2 or 3max cards availables to win the hand.
Every card worths 8% (1/13), so the winning hand get the winning card when it was at 8/92% to lose, or 16/84%, or 24/36% (with 3 cards availables).
IE, this happened to me yesterday:
first deal: P4 B3
then P get a 8 totaling 2
..and the B get a 7 totalling 0!
lol I was on B...
sometimesit it happens|!
PS I have one more question for my fellow players:
Do you usually play a pattern straightforward, IE when you decide to play, sy OTBL, or prefere to play, more selectively, a "pattern within the pattern" like Avion said.
Be selective is less risky, but also less rewarding.
What's your opinion on this matter?
thanks
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8 hours ago, brad01 said:
Yes this is true
Exactly right that sometimes the side that is winning doesn't draw naturals or great hands or scores but the other side just loses no matter what
Both situations cause the same outcome - a SS bias
It exists that's for sure and we should look for it rather than just outcomes.
Another reason why its always better to follow bias than to try and predict the change in a bias
This happens not only with streaks but also in case of long chop run.
anyway same phenomenon, but alternating side...
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I am used to notice this:
there are some hands where one side get the 1 or 2 cards available to win the hand, it's a hand won with little % say 8 vs 92% or 16 vs 84%.
IE: P has 7, B 5. now B get one card and it's a 3 (or a 4) and win the hand.
This is what I call a "lucky hand" for B that won the hand with one out of two cards available to win.
but I didn't found a way to exploit this...
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Fear does not avoid to you to lose but avoid you to win!
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Pando, which one of the two casino you suggest?
talking about friendly ambiance, tables availables, etc
thanks
PS have you similar suggestions about Macao casinos, likely will be there soon...
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There are some days when it seems you can't hit a decision. When I realize this, I try to get out even or +1 asap.
Change shoe or change day. Hit and run approach break these ones.
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I adopt old Norm's MM.
FLAT till in plus, then 1,2 till in positive, or 1, 1.5
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the mental side of a player is very important. I divided the must for a professional into 3 main courses:
knowledge, you must know mostly everything about your game
bankrolo, with poor or scared money you ll. never win long run
mindset, that allows you to overcome difficulties.
I wrote an article on this matter of about 9 pages; in this article there are some statements I took somewhere from other authors, so I can t. post it here but if someone is interested, post here his eml address and I ll sent it to him.
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Trillion,
the gain is proportional on how the trigger holds. You can have from 1 to 3 occasions to bet. matching it with MDB I can cover both biased/unbiased shoes.
I mostly flat betting. If I am winning I can push to 1.5 or 2 max.
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Don't know if this is the correct thread, anyway...
it's a couple of days that I am playing L3EM with "delayed triggers" as companion system of MDB.
By delayed trigger I mean that, applying L3EM as per Brad stated, I put money on the trigger only when this trigger wins 3 iar or 3/4.
This way I catch long biases that usually appears at least one time for shoe, at a very low risk. I add to this way to play MDB+, to get more opportunities to bet.
I usually bet ar. 1 times per shoe and for me is ok. I get 2-4 units quite easily, it depends on how triggers develop, and very safely.
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On 21 gennaio 2016 at 11:16 PM, brad01 said:
Brad, regarding your triggers I need to clarify this:
I think that the triggers regarding OTBL plays must be "confirmed" before betting, instead those regarding opposites or repeats need an on the run betting. correct?
thank you for answer and for sharing your work.
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On 21 gennaio 2016 at 11:16 PM, brad01 said:Triggers I am currently using:
Neutral (OTBL)
22 or 32 or 23
Opposite (S40)
1211 or 1111 or 2111
Repeat
42 or 24 or 33 or 34 or 43
Repeat (Strong Side)
213 or 313 or 312
S40M1 (TBL) - wait for a bunch of 2's or OTBL or repeat bias followed by:
113 or 4113 - Straights and ZZ runs with NO 2's
Answers to your questions
Mostly 2 events I use except for opposite events are short
What is better to measure is NUMBER OF PLAYS
An opposite bias trigger of 1211 is 5 plays long and 4 events
while a repeat trigger of 34 is only 2 events but 7 plays long
so generally 2 events but its not all the same
NUMBER OF PLAYS IS MORE ACCURATE
But the exact trigger are there above to look at.
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PATTERNS, in the widest possible way.
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"You can't handle the truth"
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
I agree William 100% and this is also my style, I called it "Small Ball Baccarat", this is copyrighted yet, ok?
I look for small winnings in every shoe, can be also 2-3 units but a LOW RISK! sometimes I win 2 units in a row and leave!
...but my bankroll increases slowly but steadily and have made many Level ups! cards don't know the value of your chips!
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