Jump to content

wolfat

Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,720

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    164

 Content Type 

Posts posted by wolfat

  5. test sampels and reversal or back to back question

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    IMO it depends also from the expected reward from your method.

    IE: my shoe bankroll is 4 units, I play till +2 or -4. IMO +2 is a nice reward for my investment 

    bur if your play is more aggressive and/or LAG, and needs a bankroll of 20/30 units, your expectations must be higher

    soo everything depends from how money you put in play and from the winnings (or losses) expected on avg

    • Like 2

  15. Short Term SAP

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Paul, great job!

    I must admit that didn't understand everything but it seems a great analysis of SAP.

    I like the idea to look for MC and NMC matching, maybe it's a good way to go.

     

    "it seems that looking back 7 hands and subtracting is the best way to go"

    I didn't make your deep analysis but, in a previous post on this argument, I speak about looking for an "updated" SAP count on the last 4 events, that's equal to 8 hands on avg.

    I also think that a MC event to be playable must be RECENT. I like the idea of matching it with pure MC event.

    A

  21. Short Term SAP

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    ok, here is a sample of my sap chart.

    I track a line every 4 events, on avg you should have 2110 or 2101 or something... It helps you to stay focused on RECENT EVENTS.

    #1 is classic one but with events NOT weighted. you must put the event you are interested in relationship with bigger events to realize how is running.

    #2 is the one I currently use, it fits my needs. 1s are only circled, I want only know if they come in multiples or singles.

    2s and 3s work together and show me how OTBL is going.

    Groups of 4 or more are separate, I want to know how long they are and in what side they fall.

    This is it! 

    I find it helpful in tracking the shoe, you must use the data to improve your play.

    A

     

    IMG_2171.JPG

    • Like 1

  22. Short Term SAP

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, McVince said:

    There are ongoing discussions to disclose my version of SAP.  I will say that in my opinion SAP does not need to be changed "Much".  What will need a huge change is on HOW IT IS PLAYED.  A problem with SAP which was pointed out by some of our talented players is that SAP just shows you what has happened in the past.  I guess SAP worked well when there was regular cards.  Unfortunately with pre-shuffled cards, the shoes that are totally biased are few and far between.  I use SAP for future events that have to happen.  I also use SAP in addition to NOR ( Another obsolete system according to another forum).  I have said this before, SAP should be used IN CONJUNCTION with whatever method you are playing.  It really is a great tool.  

    I use a 24 shoe cycle.  In the past five cycles which includes live play, online play (The most of all) and old shoes (Yes I practice every day), I have an average of a  83.5% win rate over the five cycles.  

    I am not disclosing without the consent of the administrators.  

    ...one sample?

    thanks

    A

    • Like 1

  23. Short Term SAP

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    I am obviously interested in this but before start some testing IMO it should be better fix some rules.

    I suggest to check the sap ct IE, on the last 4 events instead resetting the count, if an event is still hot throughout the whole shoe we can play it, if it cools down, we can switch easily, if the 4 events are tied, you can play reverse sap, etc

    I'd also discuss about weighting or not events. Currently I don't do this, simply put an event in relationship with bigger events, you can do this with a blink of an eye, no need tracking and keeps things easier.

    I usually divide my sap card in sections of 4 events, a MC event, to be played, need to be within the last 4 ev, if it's not RECENT better wait, IMO

    Thoughts?

    A

    • Like 1

  24. Realistic Expectations

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    If I can put my 2 cents in...

    I think that Ellis has a great mind for baccarat, many good ideas came from him, surely he has had the merit to grow a great site for bac players that allow us to grow in knowledge, ideas, human contacts...

    What I don't like is selling something claimed everytime like the "final solution" and then showing the same flaw that every system has, his nemesis. I appreciate more an approach like: this system is good but loses to... are you able to manage this situation? You couls do this... or this... what kind of events you usually find in your casino? etc

    IMO this is a honest approach to people, instead of a permanent work in progress method. I know people paying 1000 bucks for the "Final Word" manual but still not released yet! Not good! 

    Before LCNB was the most powerful weapon, today MvD, tomorrow?

    IMO better fix some things before thinking to new ones!

    ....anyway thanks to him and the forum allowing us to meet so many interesting people with the same passion.

    A

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use

  I accept