jerseyslim
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Posts posted by jerseyslim
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Yes, things are still doing well. I play the same way on BP as I do in the casino. I'm pretty much following what the SAP count is telling me. If I have a high count on 1's, then I'm looking to either bet opposites or F2, depending on what's been happening lately in the shoe. If the 2's are running higher than the 1's, and you have a high count on 3's or 4's, I'm playing RD. Sometimes the shoe start out one way, but change later in the shoe. I once again keep my eyes out for what's happening with the 1's and 2's. I will also keep an eye out for an abundance of 2's running together. This of course would call for otb4l. To me the key is keeping an eye on what's been happening now, say over the last 10 hands or so, and balance that with what's been happening the rest of the shoe based on the SAP count. If things appear to be changing, you have two choices. You can either wait for it to come back in line with what the rest of the shoe has been doing or jump on what's happening now. If you go with what's happening now, be ready to bail after let's say 2 or 3 consecutive losses. Then wait and see where it's headed. Was this last series an aberition or is the shoe actually changing. It doesn't cost you money to sit on your hands and wait for things to sort out.
Jerseyslim,I've been following your exploits. Still having success? How are you playing ? Are you playing the same in the casino as bet phoenix ?
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Sinatra............It's been many years since I've been to A.C. I used to play at Trump Plaza all the time. It had the most occupied tables for baccarat of all the casinos in A.C. I'm surprised to hear they have a $20 table. In those days, the only $20 table was across the street at Ceasars. Howver, they had $10 tables in Trumps whereas Caesars always started at $20. Now I play in PA since it's only an hours drive for me rather than the 2 1/2 hours it takes for A.C. However, they never go lower at Mt. Airy than a $25 table. Do you live in NJ? Oh and by the way, are all the tables no commission or just certain ones.
I go to TRump Plaza. They always have $20 tables available. Most others only have $25 and up. The Taj only has $50 up. Some have recently gone own to $15 on daytime weekdays. The plaza has toteboards and no commission bacc. All of the shoes I have played at the plaza have done very well with OTB4L. -
Not fun for everyone else. If you must continue with this do it via private messages. Thanks..............Jersey
awwww so much fun!!!!!!!!!!!! -
Davem.........the 0 bet is just that. That would be used as an example if you keep losing the first bet of your progression you'd bet 0 there. With 3,4,5..the next bet is 3.
Hey guys - probably a basic question - but still learning.. 2 questions actuallyIf you are betting 023 is the 0 simply NO BET?? I keep getting confused on this. I've seen the 0 mentioned on a few posts, but figured I'd read the manual, do some practice shoes before I asked. Hoping I would have figured it out! I didn't
Next - if you are progressing, say 345 - what do you do if you lose on the 5? Do you go back to 3?
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Ellis.......You have 4 options for sytem 40a. I understand the - as streak, the + as chop, the 0 bias for otb4l, but what is the 4th option that is - and + with 40/F2?......Jersey
Whoops......see the answer in another post. Sorry.
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Off this subject but does anyone have the link for directions to this weekend's bash along with the link for the hotel. Didn't think I could make it but there may be a change in my other plans......Jersey
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Ellis......In this example you had 11 B's in a row. In this case, as you said you would have switched to F2 right away and got off 40. However, if you were on a S40 mode in another shoe and you had 4's as culprit, how would you have handled an 11 in a row since you only go once OTR if 4's are culprit. In this shoe you kept the otr going but you're saying only go once and then go to opposites, at some point you've got to go otr again. Would that be after the second string of 4's. That could be costly. It seems the risk is less of you go otr and ride it out. If it only goes once and then to opposites you risk only one bet. Here with the progresions you will cylce through more than once before it's over.........Jersey
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Don't know if you forgot, but could you please post an example of this new 3rd rule when handling the F2.
Ellis.........would you please give an example of your latest idea here on handling this new maneuver with F2. I think I've got it but just want to make sure............Jersey -
Ellis.........would you please give an example of your latest idea here on handling this new maneuver with F2. I think I've got it but just want to make sure............Jersey
I just noticed over on the Maverick forum that Mark says that RDh makes better sense than RD1. Well to each his own.I suspect that of the 4 systems comprising S40A that RD1 will come up the least in actual play because it only has a slight advantage over F2 in only one situation which is straight runs following straight runs. But in that same situation (very rare) F2 does almost as well. Think about it - F2 LOVES runs following runs. We could drop RD1 altogether.
But the reason I chose RD1 over RDh is that RDh loses to the 212s - EVERY bet, and 212s is the most common pattern in Baccarat because it is comprised of the two most common events. Half of all events are 1's and a quarter of all events are 2s. You simply can't have a system that loses every bet to the 212's. For instance, in the Hollywood shoes we had a full col. of 212s TWICE. RDh would have lost every bet in BOTH cols. But RD1 has a built in 212 defense because it is a MUST. So, in my experience, RDh is the system that makes no sense - no sense whatsoever. And, while RDh has that huge DISadvantage, it has no redeeming ADvantage over RD1. So NO, I could never recommend RDh under any circumstances.
Now, you sharpies might be thinking "But wait a minute, F2 CAN also lose to the 212s when they start on the weak
side!"
True but the key word is "can". RDh ALWAYS loses to the 212's. F2 USUALLY beats the 212s soundly.
But we could eliminate the wrong side 212s specter from F2 altogether by adding an override rule. F2 is the simplest system in Baccarat and only has 2 rules. We could add a third rule W/O making F2 overly complicated. In fact, it would STILL be the simplest system in Baccarat.
Look, one of the biggest advantages of F2 is it is designed to ALWAYS be on the strong side - and it always is. EXCEPT when the 212s start on the weak side, however rare.
We could have a third override rule that simply says: Always switch to the strongest side of the last 5 plays. We are always on that side anyway except for half of the ZZ runs and the wrong footed 212s. Such a rule would cause us to win an extra bet in ZZ runs while making us always right footed in the 212s.
The question is, is it worth the added complexity? Well, since it adds to complexity only very slightly I think it is probably worth the effort to make F2 that much stronger. We will be playing F2 almost half the time.
What do you think?
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It would seem if you are getting an abundant of 212's, and you were monitoring things closely, you could switch to otb4l. I hate F2. You get 4 or 5 losses in a row in a heartbeat. If I'm seeing single 1's I'd just as soon switch to opposites and watch for the LC to go long. If I have high 1's, low 2's, and MC is 3 or 4 I once again would rather bet opposites and go OTR after 2.
Oh, I left a couple of important progs out. I mentioned above the situation where we are mostly LOSING our base bet.Even if our OR count says otherwise we can easily find ourselves in a shoe where the OR count went from mostly minus (which got us into F2) and then went mostly plus with ZZ runs and / or 212 runs. F2 kills both even though we are using F2 as our basic streak system. It also kills the 313s! F2 is a dynamite system. It ALWAYS kills streak but it often kills chop as well.
[We NEVER change systems when we are Killing a shoe regardless of what the OR count seems to be saying.]
BUT we are killing the shoe in spite of the fact that we are generally losing our base bet. Fine! we can take advantage of the situation by making our base bet 0 and our prog 012 or 023 or 034 depending on how we are doing on our second bet.
For instance again we find ourselves killing them with F2 in a shoe chock full of ZZs. We are losing our base bet but we have a very high hit rate on our SECOND bet. Great! Go straight to 034 or even 0345. Now we are exploiting an already good situation. By adding a 4th bet (0345) we double our chance of winning each prog W/O the increased risk of a 4 bet prog. By the time we lose our 3 bet prog IF we lose a prog, we can easily afford it IF we decide to make the 5 bet. We might be so far ahead that we decide to Quit rather than risk a 5 bet.
That is one of those great situations where everyone at the table ends up staring at you. That same situation kills all the other players. Hey, it happened to us at Hollywood when we hit a long run of 212s playing F2! Everyone else quit the shoe and watched us (Ron, Keith and me) win 2 out of every 3 bets for an entire col. We made 11 units every 8 plays betting a 345. We never got to the 5. We hit +45 while everyone else lost!
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Ellis.........I'm not sure why you say this shoe stayed otb4l favorable throughout. At hand 38 I've got a +9 OR count and if that's not screaming opposites or system 40 then I don't know when it does. It stays basically at this level until hand 49 where it's still +5 then stetches back out again to a +9 at hand 54 once again. So to me, this shoe may start out with otb4l but certainly calls for a change by hand 38. When you were doing otb4l, when did you go otr, after 4? Also, when using otb4l how do you handle the long zz runs like from hands 27-31. And we've all seen zz this long as even much longer. This will kill otb4l unless you go on some kind of run at some point.
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Ellis.........it would seem on a long streak you could lose a lot of money if you just keep betting otb4l. Why didn't you use otr whenever appropriate. I see during the course of the shoe you did have 3's LC. Why keep betting against that?
Good posting job Ace. Except its better to make your cols 20 plays long, although it fits better the way you did it.Your shoe is a perfect example of what I'm talking about over on the S40A Questios thread. An OR count that goes nowhere and keeps crossing 0. This count is screaming at you to play OTB4L. So I played it straight OTB4L all the way with no OTR (on the run) bets whatsoever. Played U1D2 M2 it scores +36 (stopping 2 plays from the end) with a highest bet of 4. PERFECT. Played straight OTB4L with a 345 limited it scores +44 stopping the same place with a high bet of 5.
So how did I know to do that. EASY
The OR count goes nowhere actually staying between +2 and -2 the whole shoe with lots of 0s.
The shoe is full of 2s and 3s which OTB4L loves.
No rocket science here.
Also, the table is VERY likely to stay that way because it is exactly what casinos strive for. WE will definitely be the ONLY winners at that table. Just as you found by trying to make 40 fit an obvious OTB4L shoe.
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Could you be more explicit as to how much you bet at one time. I assume you're betting the 50/50 chances with enough on the 0, 00 to cover your total bets in the event they come in.
hello, I dont think it can hurt,but save you time to write down on your score card what you see on the board,like the last 10 hands. but i dont like to make my first bet til I get the lc and mc.it is best to wait and see the way the shoe is going.
and by the way Ellis,and every new players of 40, I just got the manual,read it and went to play it at the roulette table since they dont have baccarat.
I covered the zeros with a small bet,and guess what,I won 5 out of 6 games,and probably lost that one because like stupid deviated from the system one time and played against the trend.
system 40 is what I play,and for all players out there who get confuse by so many systems, you can win consistently with it,and it simple enough where you dont get brain dead like some other more complex systems do.
system 40 is all I really want to play as my foundation.,with f2. like Ellis said before,it can be applied with few changes depending on the shoe and that is common sens.
if I am not sure on a decision, i make my "not-sure bet",and bet 0. if am pretty sure and things are clear, you can make your high bet. and if you think you know but not 100%,make your medium bet. 90% of the time is good enough for me. the bookeeping of system 40 is what i love the most,along with the philosophies that make it such great system.
keeping things simple is what I love. some may think they are so smart by using so many codes that they easily confuse everybody.
I can play one system,want to get good at it,and that is system 40. it is not difficult to learn at all. what IS DIFFICULT is not to be seduced by other systems who rely too much on gut-feelings. instead of practicing just that one system and get an expert at it,one can surf for years for the holly grail. dont let anyone fool you because it only cost $150, because I paid over one thousand dollars in the past,with someone who claimed we would play together hands on,only to find out later I was just lucky when i played with him.
Ellis is for real, and I heard him way back with his first nbj system, which is the best blackjack system ever, and with system 40.he has done the same thing!
he did not ask me to write this, but the man has my most respect. he always take my calls and never rush me to get off the phone and I am thankful.
Rinaldo
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We went to Mt. Airy today. It was my brother-in-law's birthday so we took him out for the day. I've been experiencing some problems on BPC with the dual SAP charts. I started dwelling too much on them with less than favorable outcomes and missing the larger picture. So today I canned them and went back to the single SAP chart and did quite well. I used a 3,4,5 progression. First shoe started out RD1 then at hand 15 I switched to F2 then by hand 21 was on sys 40. With focusing what was going on I picked up the changes much better. Scored +30 on the first shoe. Second shoe I stayed sys 40 all the way. Since I had company I stopped for the day at hand 31 for a +19.
Shoe #1
P11251111211111
B21212141321
B121233233
P11211321
Shoe #2
1131221122112
B11222121
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I find that extremely interesting. Never thought of using 2's as culprit in a strong minus count. That takes care of those pesky 1's that come along when you're playing RD1. Of course you'll have to keep a close watchout on the 2's. If you get too many of those it will hurt too.
Ellis Can you please post this shoe the way you played it each way.( F2 & 40 )Thanks
Norm
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Played this all the way through with RD1. Using a simple 1,2,3,4,5 with no M2 I wound up +34. If more aggressive with a M2 it would have been well over +40.
You wouldn't have used opposites with the strong O/R count for repeats.
Here's an interesting shoe that I encountered tonight from my local casino. Ellis and whoever is good with System 40 Advanced, please play this shoe and post the result. I would like to know the result based on this new method that we have.B5313112112
B113112344
B741131111
B312232
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Best advice I can give you is if it isn't working, don't bet it. Wait until it starts working again or the LC/MC changes.
System 40 QuestionsI've taken a break but am now getting ready ready for a few days in Vegas.
Questions:
1. In the Sys 40 manual, 5+s aren't counted. Why?
2. In the sample game on the last page, 3s are most common (if I remember correctly) but you lost to every one (confirmed and unconfirmed). With real money, would you try to win all the MC as well as lose to the LC?
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What I do is if an LC isn't holding, don't continue to bet it until it does or something else becomes LC. I do the same thing with MC. If it ain't working, don't keep betting on it.
I'm not really losing sight of the O/R count. I guess my problem is when I am looking at the SAP chart and LC (2's) has a huge disparity (10-0-16-16) then 2's start coming back to the pack. I'm doing well and it is still LC but in the meantime I'm getting killed by continuing to bet against it. The O/R is still about the same but I'm losing to the LC comeback. I hope you understand what I mean. If so, what should I do in that situation? Thanks for all your help. -
I've been very fortunate on my trips to PA. I had one bad trip a month ago or so, but now that I'm using sys40 along with the saps, I think it's really improved my playing and I feel I have a lot of control over my game. I've been here since July. It was overwhelming at first seeing all this new terminology and then trying to decide just which system or sytems I wanted to use. But I must say I got a lot of help from you and other members in this group. It's been the best fee I've ever paid out. I still use the opposite signs designating a repeat from an opposite but that only really matters to me.
Good job Jersey!Don't you ever lose anymore?
How long have you been a member now?
BTW, I remember when you didn't know an Opposite from a Repeat.
I think you are a very positive inspiration for the new guys!
BTW, that reminds me: Any of you guys who were a little worried about Black Tiger, he's beginning to "get" everything at the same time now. Just had to overcome a little language shock.
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Another successful trip to Mt. Airy casino yesterday. Played 2 shoes with system 40 and sap. One shoe +20 units the other +23. I'd post them but for some reason I can't get my scanner to work.
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The SAP's will put you on the streaks and if you watch your 1's you'll know whether to get in a the zz's after a 3 or 4 zig. If 1's are high or MC, you should jump on after the 3 zig, especially if the side the 3 came on is high or MC with 1's. Otherwise wait one more hand and jump aboard. I used to play a lot at Trump Plaza about 10 years ago and occasionally go next door to Ceasars. I liked Trumps since it seemed to attract the most Asians and have the most tables operating. Do you go during the week or weekends and is it still busy in there......Jersey
Ellis, Great stuff. It's always great in this forum when you are posting a lot as you have been the last couple of days. I have been playing at Trump Plaza in AC the last two weeks with some success but had one bad day. I would start out in System 40 and move to RDH-1 when 40 faltered. When I came home and replayed my score card (several ways) I found that good old OTB4L killed all 6 shoes. The lowest score of the six was +15 with the highest +42. It is such a great system and easy to play. and all you need is to get on the ZZ runs after a predetermined number and the same with straight runs. Your always winning 1 or two bets at the start of a run by the time it gets to 4. I think OTB4L really should be a key component in 4S system. -
Went to Mt. Airy on Friday. I was going to stay over Thursday night also but came down with something and had to give up my free night. I played two shoes. The first one, which I'm attaching I played for 44 hands. The reason I quit at that point is due to the fact it came back to +10 units for the third time so I figured someone was telling me something. Unfortunately it went higher to a maximum of +23 units. But I'm always very happy if I can come out 20 units ahead after playing a couple of shoes. The second shoe went really smooth and I was out very early on that one. My wife was with me so I figured I had done what I wanted to do and I'd give some attention to her. Anyhow, I started the shoe off in the system 40 opposite mode. Unfortunately I could have made more units because by hand 17 the 2s' were MC and like a darn fool I figured opposites would handle them too but had I gone to otb4l I would have missed the first losing bet on the opposites and landed right on the first be in the first place. However, since I'm using the dual saps they made sure even if I was doing things wrong, they'd straighten me out. The SAP's are definitely looking out for me and help over ride some dumb mistakes I could be making. When you see red figures on the player side, that is the combined count both sides of the saps. You can see how at hand 13, even though I'm playing chop, the 2's were LC on banker side so the sap's told me not to be opposites at that point but rather otr, so that's what I did. This in my opinion gives you the best of both worlds. The dark circles around the sap's are indicating which ones are working and they have red circles when they're not. The saps' over ride my mode bet which in this shoe was opposites. It's amazing sometimes just how much these dual saps' help guide you through some tough times by directing you away from your mode bet and making the sap bet. This was a decent shoe which could have been much better had I paid better attention but the combing of the mode and saps' helps a lot in my opinion. I had a high of 23, low of -1, and ending of +17. As I said I only got +10 of it but I'm very happy with the results. Didn't get involved with any large drawdowns. Hope this gives you all some thought...Jersey
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I play at Mt. Airy and what I see some people do who want to bet less than a $25 unit. Let's say they want to bet $10 on Banker. What they do is bet $35 on banker and $25 on player. The net result is a $10 bet. It depends if you're casino will let you do that.
Yep I agree Ellis !! Keep it simple! Kinda like a "40a Kiss " !Thanks for answering my time frame question!
I'm anxiously awaiting its coming out day !
I for one am putting everything else on the back burner, and will strickly concentrate on this new " Kiss" 40A Manual !! I think its gonna be all one needs to take a little out of the casino on a regular basis . My game plan is to hit 'um....and run!! I got a casino just down the road , couple of miles ! Only concern is, one table, $25 mini . Ellis any advice for these conditions ?
Thank You once again........sure appreciate your knowledge, input and advice !!
johnny
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Here's a shoe I just completed with real money at Bet Phoenix. By the time I tuned in there, they were already into nearly the 20th hand. By time I had everything written on my score sheet and was ready to rumble, they were at hand 21. At this point when I start a shoe, it will either be OTB4L or system 4.0. If there are a lot of singles, then it's 40. If there are a number of multiples, I'm going OTB4L. In this case as you can see it started off with multiples so that's how I went. I bet that mode UNLESS I've got some good SAP data that tells me to bet differently. I'm using the dual SAP chart as illustrated by PJ in this room. It just so happens I stayed in OTB4L mode for this whole shoe but I did vary the bets when the SAP indicated it had good data I could bet on. It will usually take a good 20 hands or more before I feel confident about it. If you'll notice, I've got some red or blue circles around the events that the outcomes are matching the SAP. In other words I've got good enough data with my SAP's that I can rely on them to make actual bets which may vary from the OTB4L mode. Once I get a red circle on my SAP chart, it tells me not to bet the count again until it shows me I can rely on it. This shoe had a high of +42 on the last hand and a low at +1 whiich was from the first bet I made at hand 21......Jersey
Hollywood Casino Shoes
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted · Edited by jerseyslim
Don't know if anyone else is having a problem but I can't open any of these.
Now it works