jerseyslim
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Posts posted by jerseyslim
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I think I get it. If you're using OTB4L then you go OTR after the lowest LC. Is that correct
But I've been toying with the idea of declaring the LC between only 3s, 4s, and confirmed 5s with OTB4L. Right now we ALWAYS make 4s LC. That is pretty lazy and goes right back to my complaint about waiting for a certain number of losses. We should take what we've learned and also apply it to OTB4L and choose the lowest LC between 3s, 4s and 5s. Why not get every bit of advantage we possibly can?What are you saying is the connection between LC 3's, 4's, and 5"s with OTB4L. Under what situation are we using OTB4L with one of these s's? -
What are you saying is the connection between LC 3's, 4's, and 5"s with OTB4L. Under what situation are we using OTB4L with one of these s's?
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Correct me if I'm wrong, and I probably am wrong, but where are we thus far. If we have a negative count, we're betting syst40. If we have a neutral count we net bet sys40. Now the $64,000 question is if we have a positive count we bet???????? I think it's some version of RD but I'm not sure since we threw in this thing about 1's and a sap count on 1's. Ellis.........why don't you clear this all up because things are being thrown around and I'm not sure whether you are saying this is what we should consider if the count is X. At this point do you have some preliminary rules. It appears things are getting scattered and I'm not sure if you are intentionally doing this or what. Please give us something to work with.
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It would seem to me the better way to go is by looking at the history of the shoe and see which side is throwing out the most 1's. Let's say ist's P. Then whenever you are on a streak with B and it goes over to the P side, that's when you would want to bet for it to come back to B. Just because B is the dominant side, it wouldn't necessarily mean that P doesn't have a lot of 2's.
Ellis for it to be a sporadic 1 it has to move over to the weak side. Have you given any thought to playing any strong side banker or player options when in a game like this rather than assuming the repeats will continue on both bank and player sides at the same frequency. I am thinking that you may be able to exploit the strong side rather than a repeat strong bias -
Come on Ellis. Let's get it on!
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Sure hope my "free time" doesn't get expensive. LOL
Same story here, but injoy your Free Time.NormA
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MVS........I know one thing I'll be doing a lot more of than I did before and that's go to the casino. It only takes about 1/3 of the time it used to take me to get to A.C. One hour vs almost 3 hours. I did all my work from home so for a change, I'll be able to get out of here and enjoy it. And I'll enjoy my home more now since I won't see it as my work place other than of course spending time studying bac. shoes. Thanks for the welcome and I'm enjoying meeting new people here from this group. So many give of their time with no compensation here and I find that very refreshing. So it's good to have joined the ranks of the retired and just as good joining this group of players.
Jersey,If you think you're going to have more free time now that you're retired, you're in for a rude awakening!!
I retired (actually forced out) at 60 and thought I'd have all kinds of free time due to the nature of my previous work keeping me away from home about half of the month.
WRONG!
I think I've got less free time now and I can't even imagine how in the heck I got anything done at home when I was still working!! My dad told me that same "no free time" thing when he retired and I thought he was making a joke or something! He was right!
So, welcome to the ranks of the "retired folk" in the neighborhood and try not to run out of free time now!
MVS
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Just got this last post before heading out to a birthday party for two of my grandchildren. So I won't get time today to think about what you're saying, but it sounds like a lot more than just net betting sys40. You've got me very intrigued about this I must admit. I did do a net bet sys40 on that shoe I put out there which had difficulty with simply sys40. I wound up having a high of +11 which is good because many times I quit at +10 and it had a low of -2. If you'll recall with RD1 which is how I did it in the casino, I had a high of +10 and a low of -6. Of course that was my interpretation of RD1 which I did use F2 during part of the shoe. The net betting didn't require me to think if I should be F2 or RD1 but I achieved slightly better results net betting and didn't have the larger drawdown that I experienced from AD1/F2. You've got me on the edge of my chair, and I'm looking forward to "your solution" to this dilemma. Wish I had more thought time but I'd probably not have an answer anyhow.
Here's a clue:Single 1's are half of all events.
Double 1's occur at half the frequency of Single 1's.
Triple 1's occur at half the frequency of double 1's
So the 50% rule applies to Opposites exactly the same as it applies to Repeats.
We just never had a reason to look at it that way before. But perfect RD play demands we look at it now.
We probably should have considered this phenomenon with SAP. It just never occured to me. Well, better late than never.
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Ellis............I've only been in the forum for a very short time. But my thoughts on you are that you're a man of high intelligence and there isn't another person on this planet that knows the game of baccarat more than you. I also believe that you, just as a good lawyer, woudn't ask a question unless he already knew the answer. I know you're looking to draw some discussion here and I'm hoping there is some, but if not, let's here what you have in mind for this mind boggling question.
For the far out thinkers among us:It occurs to me that we are now playing 40 as perfectly as it can be played. I'm trying apply the same to RD, but its a brain twister until you look at it in different lingo.
When we say go OTR under a two in a row we are also saying:
After one loss.... or after ONE REPEAT
SAP does not track opposites in a row, just repeats in a row
a 2 is one repeat
A 3 is also 2 repeats in a row
A 4 is also 3 repeats in a row
So we are tracking and properly reacting to Rs in a row but what about Os in a row to play RD perfectly. How do we do that?
See, LC among Rs in a row we have for Sys 40
But how to we get Os LC? for RD
Which is LC among single 1's, double 1's and triple 1's. How do we know, How do we track it?
But it seems to me that if in RD we know which is LC that we can play RD far better than ever before just as we are playing 40 better than ever before.
I'm sure the info is there waiting for us to decipher it. But I blew my brain out just trying to figure out how to ask the question. Any ideas?
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By the way, if you are talking about net betting Sys40 chop, I'm a step ahead of you because I did a couple of shoes that way also, and did pretty good with that although I don't know what rules other than simply net betting it that you may have come up with. I've put your forum and posts to good use, doing a lot of work on my own because I intend to do this on a professional basis since I'm newly retired, and have the time and now have the location within an hour of my home. I had my own business and decided to retire at 62 and enjoy the rest of my life.
Well thought out Jersey. You are definitely starting to think Baccarat rather than think like a gambler.A couple of your discriptions pointed to Sys 40 N which is really the same as RD N. We'll be getting into that. Also, you aren't yet playing RD 1 as perfectly as possible because I haven't taught you how yet.
My next post here may perk your interest even more.
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Don't tease me Ellis. LOL
Well thought out Jersey. You are definitely starting to think Baccarat rather than think like a gambler.A couple of your discriptions pointed to Sys 40 N which is really the same as RD N. We'll be getting into that. Also, you aren't yet playing RD 1 as perfectly as possible because I haven't taught you how yet.
My next post here may perk your interest even more.
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Well spoken Ellis. When I go to the casino, as I did today, I was the first one there as always so I can sit where I want, and have it established a non smoking table. So at that point, there has been no prior history, and they have no tote boards. I've heard you mention several times about the color of the shoe. I've never heard that term before, and frankly don't know what the color is or is about. I went this morning prior to seeing your post on RD. I had gone over several shoes that I had problems with in practice. I used your choppy shoe 40S as was illustrated here yesterday. So what I decided to do was play the chop system or RD system that I know of from Maverick for a change rather then ADOT. The first shoe I checked the count and it was positive. I waited until hand 10 to jump in. The count was only slightly positive and hovered around 0 and +1. It was alll I had to go by so I jumped on board. By hand 26 I had 10 units profit so I decided I had half my daily goal so that was it as far as real betting. Well hand 26 was the high of the shoe. The shoe started out slightly streaky. This shoe went back and forth between a + and - count for the first 20 hands. Then from hands 20-30 it got streaky. Then for the next 15 hands or so danced on both sides of 0. Once I got into hands 50+ it took off like a rocket. So what appeared to be slightly streaky turn back to choppy then back to streaky again. I don’t know how you are supposed to adjust to this when it’s not consistent one way or another and in fact jumps back and forth and eventually takes off like a rocket in the end. However, I made 10 units and if I stayed on would have still ended up with 8 units but I just don’t know how you are supposed to adjust to these kind of swings. At home I worked this with just the chop method and it was a real nightmare. When I got on streaks I went one hand OTR then waited for the run to quit and move over. This shoe at one time had an LC of 3 and then 4 then back to 3.
Anyhow, I wanted to work the chop method on a shoe as you sent us last evening. So the second shoe the first hand was player and the second was banker so I said I’m jumping in on this now. Now this shoe stayed choppy all the while by the count. It’s at the same table that was a good deal streaky the shoe before and now was nothing but chop. So I picked the right shoe without knowing. I figured if it went streaky I’d hop on RD1. If this was a choppy table, it didn’t show it really in the first shoe as it did in the second so I’m not quite sure about when you say a table is choppy or streaky. I played this one for 32 hands since it was doing nicely. I wound up with 14 units on this one. So for two shoes I finished up 24 units for the day.
Now it appears you are combining Sys40 and RD so I’ll be interested in what you post about this method. So here’s the shoe. Shoe 1 I played in RD! mode and later played at home with Sys40 chop method that to me was a disaster. Second shoe actual chop shoe played in casino.
P1322121242
B4212112112111
B241171445111.
Shoe 2 Chop shoe
P111213511112
B131112211
Jersey, read the chapter on System 40 shoe start tips again. First, you would not start betting until you have an OR count. That tells you what mode to play.But even before all that you want to know if the table is basically Choppy Streaky or Neutral. You have the tote board to tell you what the current shoe is doing. Always note the shoe color. But you'd like to know about the prior shoe and the shoe before that.
Fortunately Baccarat players are the friendliest in the casino because unlike BJ, nothing you can do effects the game. So ask and look at the player cards of the prior shoes. Choppy, Streaky or Neutral. BTW don't ask the dealer.
If at all possible, you want to start in the right mode. You want to AVOID betting for the sake of betting. Get the lay of the land. The more you are forced to change modes the worse off you are. Don't bet until you know. If there is no other way to know keep an OR count until you know. then flat bet until you know for sure.
Remember your first task upon arriving at the casino was to find the chopiest or streakiest or Neutralist table you could find. That is what separates the players from the gamblers.
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Ok, I'll bite again. So we start a shoe in one mode or the other. If we don't know what mode it is, I guess it doesn't really matter. So after two losses in a row, I'm going to switch to the opposite mode I was in, let's say I started in chop (40s)chop, and then go to RD which follows the prior hand. So I made bets of 1 unit and lost, then 2 units which I lost, and now I'm in a new mode. Will I continue with the next bet in the sequence which is 3, using a 1,2,3,4,5, or do I start my progression back at 1. That would be more conservative and if you're more aggressive just continue up the ladder from the last mode. Do I understand you correctly Ellis?
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Sorry Ellis............I knew the 4's were different with having a value of 8 but I didn't know you only count the 4's. Sorry for the over sight.
Jersey, everything in the sample shoe is exactly according to the manual posted. I've said on two occasions now that unless you have reason not to from previous play of the same color shoe start with 4s culpritNow, look at the 4s column in the SAP chart. At no time was there any event with a lower LC number than the 4s.
Again, it is NOT 4 or mores we are recording under the 4s heading. It is confirmed 4s. Remember, I said you can't confirm the length os an event until it is ended by an opposite. Then you go back and retroactively fill in your SAP chart. A 5 or 6 in a row is not a 4. We are not interested in 5s or 6s or whatever, just actual 2s and 3s and 4s confirmed. There are no confirmed 4s until late in the shoe and 3s are never lower than 4s. There is nothing arbitrary about it.
I also completely covered the long run scenerio. Again, I said that if you come off the run and lose the first opposite bet you can wait for the run to end. OR, you can bet off on off on off on until the run ends. If you are seeing long runs at your casino you should choose either of those remedies. I don't usually bother with that when 4s are culprit unless I've been seeing long runs because it takes such a long run to hurt you. Where I play it is very rare to see anything longer than an 8. Cash Mgt would protect me from a long run anyway. One of the cash mgt rules I'll be teaching you in that chapter is once you hit 16 Never make a bet that could take you below +1. But I did say in the manual do not make a 6 bet in the 12345 prog or a 7 bet in the 23456 prog W/O waiting for a paper win. You can't get a paper win until the run ends. But if you want to stay on all runs until you lose because you see long runs where you play, that's a good idea and I'm sure you won't be the only one doing so.
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One other question when starting the shoe. If you don't know if it's a chop or streaky table would you recommend waiting possibly 8-10 hands to determine whether you should be betting for streaks or chop via sys40?
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It would appear in the example shoes you put out, that you have violated the rules in regards to LC and going OTR under an LC. It would appear you have arbitrarily chose 4 as the LC. There weren't any bets made until after a 4 in a row were recorded. For some reason the 4's weren't even recorded early in the shoe and didn't begin to show up until hand 56 with an 8. It appears the LC for a good deal of this shoe should have been 3's. I've gone to the casino once per week for the last several weeks. I've for the most part only played 2 shoes each day. Yet during those few shoes I've seen streaks of 10, 13, and 14. What do you recommend doing so that after you've made your OTR bet, you don't get creamed when you run into streaks of this length and you are continuing your bets against the streak after your one OTR bet. I suppose you could either stop after your one time OTR bet or just keep betting with the streak. Either way you will then miss the first opposite bet after the streak ends which will alter your results but at least it shouldn't ruin your bank roll in one sweep.
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Ellis..........what I'm not quite sure of is when you enter to go OTR and the LC is 2, how long do you stay on the OTR. Is it until it runs out, for just one bet, or some other predetermined number of hands.
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Ellis...........It might be helpful, as you put up each segment of the 4S, that you include an attachment of an actual shoe, illustrating exactly what it is you're talking about. I can understand what you're saying about the net betting of 4S, but it might be very helpful to those having difficulty with what you're saying. It might help eliminate a lot of questions some may have.
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Ellis...............Being new here and not understanding what the advantage of having 4 systems to consider, my question is why would it be necessary to consider 4 separate systems when a shoe is pretty much either streaky or choppy. If it's streaky it would seem RD1 would be the mode to be in and if it's choppy, system 40 should handle the chop. Isn't more really too much. It would seem that fine tuning to 4 systems might be an over kill and only make cause for more adjustments on the run. As I say, I'm new here and new to the various systems so I could be way off base on my conclusions.
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MVS.............what's the deal on the moneygram. How much do they charge and have fast does it arrive and is it via mail or money transfer via an account you already have?
John,I just put in a request to pull $500 from the account and they're telling me it's now "10 business days" for my check to be processed. As this is the first time I've tried the free, once a month check, I was kind of surprised to find that it would take this long. The moneygram thing seemed to work nicely in the past but figured I'd go the check route this time to save some money. Their "banking" page shows the mailed checks should be processed in 24-48 hours, Tuesday thru Thursday and arrive in 3 days or so. This makes the 10 day thing a bit odd I think.
As I have no bonus problems and all of my information is already held for the account, I find the "10 business days" thing to be out of line.
My other sports book paid by check in TWO DAYS every time I requested a pay out by check and they sent it via FedEx of all things!
We'll see if there's any other problems that crop up for this "free check" withdraw and I'll report back when the check actually shows up.
MVS
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Nice post MVS. I can agree 100% on what you're saying. My only question is that you are playing at BP and you've seen the recent posts by one of the members. I hear reports of getting knocked out of the room if you don't make a bet for 5 or 6 hands and just today someone saying that are having troubles with a withdrawl. Please enlighten me as to how you get around the limitations of having to bet within 5 or 6 hands and how you are getting money out of your account, meaning the best way for a withdrawl, how long it takes to receive your funds, and any other thing of importance you might be willing to share about BP. Thanks
All,As anyone reading this message has already at least registered on this board, that's a good sign so I'll post it here instead of in the private area.
One year ago I made the "leap of faith" and bought into this forum strictly for the baccarat information and plays.
It took me a while to settle in, get organized and get SERIOUS about my baccarat play.
A year ago I was playing at the game, but not beating it. Basically I was in some sort of neutral mode of uninspired play, no profits and just drifting through the tables.
I figured I needed to change my game and this is where I wound up. I paid the full admission price at the time and jumped in.
One year later I'm in profits with my local live casino play and way up with my online account at BetPhoenix in live dealer play.
I went through probably four major system plays to get to this point, but the time and effort were worth it, at least for me. I managed to find and play three plays that fit my style and bankroll.
There is no magic bullet of baccarat or a Holy Grail. This takes work, discipline and study. If you're lacking any of those, you will lose. I have also found that the discipline to play the game according to a plan is probably the most important quality to possess! The best system play in the world will collapse if your table discipline is weak. Believe it!
Anyway, I was going to post a similar testimonial on the other few baccarat boards, but after reading them all for the last year or so, I decided that it would be a waste of time so this will be the only one.
You don't have to believe my comments here. I only post this to complete a year long journey that I started with a specific goal and I've reached it. Now I can continue to play and enjoy the game while making a tidy profit each week. I"m still learning little tricks along the way to help with the game as the crop of members in the private areas are very baccarat savvy and work as a pretty good team.
So, don't let the "administrator" badge under my name fool you. I'm only an admin of the general board actions. I paid my way in here like the rest and have not regretted it a bit.
The bottom line?
Ask yourself this question:
Is your game better in August of 2010 than it was in August of 2009?
Mine is!
MVS
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This is not good and something I feared about in joining an online casino. Are there any other online casinos that accept players from the U.S. that deals live hands that gives good service. Also, what about the fact that they kick you out after about 5 or 6 hands of inactivity. That's no good when betting like we do.
John I know some of the management at BetPheonix,PM me your betphoenix nickname and amount you are trying to withdraw, i will have a talk with them to see whats happening.
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Hi Andrea..............after going over this in that email between you and I, I misinterpreted what you were saying. Nexxt day I did that shoe which I posted not thinking much about it. Then I did some other shoes and in examining it, I said this couldn't possibly be right. It was putting me in the opposite direction of the way I was to start off a shoe. I was doing C/S instead of O/T thinking that they were maybe the same but used under different terms. I made the corrections however, and discovered the error prior to this post. In fact, went to the favorite ATM of mine today in Mt. Airy and had another great trip which is reported under ADOT. Thanks again for all your help.
Hi Slim,I just wanna outline that "your" OT count it's not an OT count, your is a CS count (chop/streak), even if you mark a "-" instead of a "+" how we're used here.
Just for info for other members the O/T countshow how a shoe is neutral or streaky/choppy.
To do this you must treat the plays like opposites/repeats:
opt/opt = -
rpt/rpt = -
opt/rpt = +
rpt/opt = +
andrea
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Here's how I played Steve's shoe with ADOT. It may be a little messy in some areas. This is my first shot at importing an image so here goes. I know I made a mistake or two like missing the ZZ's at 21 but everything worked out all right anyhow. Oh and one other thing, when it's a repeat I use +1 and an opposite -1. I just naturally went this way since in my mind an opposite is a negative and a repeat is a positive. Don't ask why but I kept making mistakes doing it the other way. Screwed up brain I guess. After the shoe gets going I don't record the + and -. I let the losses determine what mode I should be in after that.
It's been a year
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
You did answer your own question but it must have been somewhere else because I remember your receiving it after 5 business days.