jerseyslim

Ellis.....thanks for the great analysis.

Ellis..........here's an example of a shoe that starts out perfectly for system 40 chop, with the O/R count and the 1's above normal. Obviously, you can see from the shoe as it's posted, that this shoe turns and requires an adjustment. Of course when you're sitting down doing this shoe you don't know for sure when things have turned, but tell me at what hand do you finally say this is no longer a chop situation, and requires you to change your mode. O/R count by itself doesn't change your mode becasue it stays positive for most of the shoe which would be too late to make any changes. So here's the shoe, give us some insight as to when you must change what you're doing as well as why. B1311122111141 P3241231211 B332411114 B231312 This shoe is fresh off Bet Phoenix.

Was going out to dinner so I decided to take a quick jump into Bet Phoenix to pay for the upcoming dinner. Was just looking to make 10 units and leave. When I entered BP they were already just over 20 hands into the shoe. I quickly scored my sheet bringing the SAP's and O/R count up to date. Remember to me + is streaky. The shoe at that point looked streaky and the count was slightly to the streaky side so that's how I started playing. By hand 26 things started to turn choppy. So at hand 29 I started to bet for the chop. Good thing. You can follow my play along and at hand 45 I hit my +10 and was off to dinner. Only problem now is it's going to cost me $50 to get that money out of there. LOL

Well if I got it backwards then RDH keeps betting for repeats.

On RDH while on a zz pattern, after you have the isolated 1, you bet straight down from you last losing bet, which in effect keeps you betting for the zz's. On RD1 you keep betting for a repeat of the last bet. Now what's my prize. A free copy of your baclkjack system? LOL

Is RD2 different from F2?

According to the post Ellis put on the public forum we have the rules. I'd like to have a link to them if someone knows where they are.

Ellis........something we've been waiting to hear from you for some time, and that is when, as you see it, do we switch from one mode of system 40 to the next. It would be nice to have some kind of general rules to go by. More to the point something in writing to give some discussion of system 40. Something possibly about SAP's or so many losses in a row look for X. Something the group can use to do actual shoes and get a discussion going on in here. We're dying. We started this discussion some time ago, and I thought I remember reading in about 12 days we would conclude it. But I think it's been months by now. I think it was called 4S at the time. What do you say?

It would be nice if you could see them. Could you give a breakdown as to how each shoe turned out? Gotta get them to show larger if possible.

Had an enjoyable over night trip to the casino from Thursday night into Friday. I took my wife along and had a very enjoyable trip. I wound up playing two shoes late Thursday night into Friday morning and then played two more shoes late Friday morning and then early afternoon. I used PJ's dual SAP charts and basically let that along with the O/R count direct to me to whatever system 40 mode it dictated. I know I may be complicating things a bit, but along with the dual SAP charts from PJ, I keep a combined total SAP also running with the divided count. This really keeps me in tune with what's going on with each side as well as the total picture. The first shoe I played the O/R count was indicating a chop shoe early on. The SAP count was shoeing 1's high on both sides so this was obviously a system 40 start using chop. Later in the shoe the count turned around on the O/R and I was getting multiples in a row so I shifted to RDI at the 47th hand in the shoe. I should have started it sooner. Now keep in mind I'm playing a very conservative 1,2,2,1,2,3,4 progression with a M2. First shoe had a high of 25, low of -1, and finished at +18. I got out at +20. The second shoe started at about 1:30am and I was getting tired. The shoe started with an O/R count indicating chop but the 3's were MC. So I wanted something for chop but that could accomodate the 3's so I went with OTB4L. Now this mode does enable you to go on streaks once you reach the LC which I missed the boat on. I could have gone OTR two different times but didn't at a cost. I went as high as 6 and as low as -5. Finished and when I quit I was at +3. This was hand 53 and with my mistakes and bad judgement decided it was time to go to bed. The first shoe of the next day was once again showing a chop system 40 start. The player side of my SAP chart was showing 1's and 2's. About hand 22 the Banker side was starting to show 2's, 3's, and some 4's. Even though the O/R was still showing the shoe to be an overall chop shoe, the Banker side was actually showing streak. However, I chose to stick with the over all chop mode using sys40 which I'm sure cost me some. I'm going to keep watching this, but you might find it's best playing each side according to it's own SAP count. It would have helped here even though the overall SAP was showing chop. At hand 46 I was up 10 units and thought about getting out but I didn't. So I contined on and in hand 61 I was at +20 and quit. I continued marking my scorecard until the end. Wound up H 20 (which is where I quit) low -1, and F at +16. For my final shoe I started RD1. I had P with a streak of 4 at the beginning then banker with a 1. Back to player with a 3 so I decided to use RD!. I only played to hand 27 but every time it went to B, it only was a 1's. There were only tow more multiples on the player side but with the ZZ's, even though in an RD1 mode, I was able to hop on the runs. Once I get the confirmed 1 by itself, I choose to go for the zz's rather than betting the standard RD1 which has you looking for the multples at some time during the run. The shoe ended for me with a ZZ pattern of 11. So this shoe ended for me at hand 27 with another 10 units. So for the trip it was 4 shoes for 53 units. So for being so long winded with this but I wanted to let you know how I'm watching the SAP charts, both dual and combined along with the O/R count which should help confirm to you what mode along with the SAP chart you should be going with.

I was in there the other day and the server went down. When I got back in shortly thereafter the tote was back to the beginning so I'm assuming if they lose their server they aren't saving any of the tote board.

I think at the moment, being system 40 is the hot button, eveyone is trying to make every shoe work with that system. That's just how you're going to get your self in trouble. System 40 can handle small streaks of let's say 3's but if you get a number of them or they are back to back you can get creamed. If the shoe, based on the SAP charts or the O/R charts say it's streaky, by all means use a streak system. I've found myself getting caught up in the hype. You get some people showing shoes that worked ideally for system 40 and then everyone thinks all you have to do is start out with 40, and you will win 20+ units. Instead of putting shoes out here that did perfectly with 40, put some losers out here and I'll guarantee the reason they were lost is because an individual was using a chop system, 40, when they should have been using RD1 or F2 as an example. If you want to play professionally, you've got to work like a professional. I've been making the same mistakes myself so I've learned the hard way. One other thing I'd like to comment on that I think a lot, including myself are guilty of. When you lose two hands in a row, step back and see what's going wrong. Don't keep betting into a mistake. Too many show shoes that just because they ran in to 5 or 6 units, and it worked out, and they wond 20+ units, that this is the way you should play. I think you've got to step back and see if things are changing via the SAP charts, and if necessary wait for things to resume as they were or identify things are changing. But the best thing is when losing, stop what you're doing and observe. Observation doesn't invade your bankroll.

Probably if 3's and 4's are MC on both sides you should be getting another mode rather than 40. You probably should be on some streak method like F2 or RD1. Remember, keep an eye out on the O/R count along with the SAP situation.

PJ.......why not add 1's to the mix. If 1's are LC, then we can go OTR right off the bat.

Personally, I'm finding that especially when 4's are LC, I'm questioning whether it's worth betting opposites more than twice. These are the kind of situations I think we should be trying to avoid. When 4's are LC, we hang in and lose 3 bets in a row betting opposites. Then what I've seen happen many times is that it stops at 4 but you are betting for it to continue. So now you've lost 4 in a row. So it goes no further OTR and you missed the bet coming back to the other side. Now if the LC on the other side is a 4, you're right back into betting in the same situation you just went through. Even if you had a good shoe going, it's now been destroyed. If it was early in the shoe, you're more than likely at your stop loss. However, the first question you might be asking your self is "should I have been betting system 40 in this shoe to begin with." Ellis will tell you to bet S40 in shoes with a + O/R. That's where it will perform the best. Trying to force a choppy system on a streaky shoe does have some risk. This is one of them. I realize you do get streaks during a choppy shoe and vice versa. That's why they call this gambling. Sometimes you just have to lose. But to me, the key is playing the shoe according to what it's giving you. You can't make chicken soup out of chicken crap so don't try to do it. System 40 is not going to be the answer to everything. If the OTR's aren't working in the chop shoes, stop betting on them. Hopefully during the course of the shoe you'll wind up with and LC of 2 let's say so you can get on the run early for a bet or two. When I see 4's as LC, I really don't like that situation and opens the door to just what you were describing. And if you see that the otr's aren't working, don't bet them until the situation corrects itself. One other thing you might consider is cutting back on your progressions. I use a 1,2,2,1,2,3,4. You don't scores the +20 unit shoes as often as you doing betting the progression you're showing but I'm only looking to take 10 units out of a shoe. If you want to make more money, bet larger units not larger progressions.

Funny MVS I played this same shoe today.

Nice post PJ. One question, if 4's are MC and 3's are LC, we have one otr bet. After that you say to go off the run. Would you wait until the run is over or just stop betting until it changed sides. I've seen some runs go 10 or better lately, including on BPC today with a 10 run Banker which I just happened to look in and then went back out again right away.

At 11:00am estern time I placed a call to Bet Phoenix at their member services number. There was no answer, or recorded message. I tried it twice with same result. 1-888-889-4368. Anyone else have this problem. Not good when you have money with these people.

Ellis.....If I'm understanding you correctly, you would be recording the inverse of the streak SAP. So as an example if it was PPBPBPBPP you would record this under a 7 because when "counted correctly" this would be a 7 streak. But I've probably got this one all wrong. Oh please, please, tell me what you mean. LOL

Bill..........Nice job. Very sound reasoning for how you are playing. I was curious why at hands 26 and 27 you didn't have opposite bets?

It's funny, but the casino where I go, there's an older man who comes in everytime I'm there and he's probably there everyday. He buys in with a few hundred dollars, stays there and wins a net of about 3-6 units at a $25 table, then gets up and leaves. So I'm sure his goal is like yours but the funny thing is he stands out because of how short a time he's there but let's face it, the casino doesn't really care.

Without having hardly any knowledge of Maverick, I'd like to say my thoughts on your statement Johnny. You are going to have times when System 40 kicks Mavericks butt all over the place. You will have shoes, which are mostly streaky, that Maverick is going to kick the heck out of System 40. Maverick can't have a monopoly on winning. It's a methodology that really does well when you have some kind of streaky shoes. Now I realize that with Maverick, you do have the option of going anti for chop. But when you start doing this, you are at risk of jumping onto a mode that existed for a short time, the anti, and now is reverting back to what the shoe has been doing for most of the time. After all, the opposite of System 40 is RD1 or F2 etc. So with System 40, you could make that an option just as anti is an option of Maverick. So it would appear to me, that each of the two are similar, and when you start a shoe, and you are using the O/R count, you could start a shoe actually the same as you would under Maverick. Maverick would say this shoe is starting anti so I'm going to start in a choppy mode. System 40 would be starting off the same way. So both methods are flexible, yet neither has a big advantage over the other. The biggest difference in my opinion is that System 40 is included in the price here. Maverick comes at a cost of $1,000. With Maverick I understand you have mentoring and maybe that's worth $1,000 to some. But in my limited experience here, and not having been around when Mark was here, other than the mentoring, Maverick doesn't have an advantage over someone properly using System 40. And just because you use Maverick, there's no guarantee that you are going to be anymore successful than you would be using System 40. Both methods are flexible and it's a matter of how and when you are going to use another available option in the course of the shoe. When do you switich, why you switch, and does the switch really mean you are going in the right direction or does it mean you got on the new direction just in time to see it switch back in the original direction. Right now you have an individual who knows how to market himself and that's Mark. He will naturally hype the good points and not put as much emphasis on the low points. But that's only natural and that's ok. I think if you can be successful with Maverick, you can be successful with System 40. If you flounder around, winning only when you are not betting for real with Maverick, then you'll flounder around with System40. The biggest difference is that you'll still have your $1,000 in your pocket that you can blow in the casino. I only hope at this time that Ellis can spend more time with us so we can get this thing ironed out once and for all. Now I'll step down from my soap box.

It's probably the progressions you used. If you used a U1D2M2 on a decent shoe you will score much higher than I did with a 1,2,2,1,2,3,4. I wanted to stretch this out as far as I could. As I said , I had a 7 in a row loss at hands 57-63. It would also depend whether you used a different SAP B and P as I did. Sometimes you're the fly and some times your the windshield. Also where you started betting will also produce different results. Sometimes a slight difference can me a big difference later on. The progressions will make a huge difference. I'm trying to avoid disaster so when a tough shoe comes along, you'll get pretty beat up while I'll have a much smaller loss and still be able to go on to the next one. I ideally only want +10 units per shoe. Don't need the added risk of going for +20. But that's just me. The progressions are real easy when doing a shoe at home. In the casino it's whole different world. Look forward to seeing you shoe.

Sorry I didn't finish or even nearly finish the second shoe but I had the wife with me and I was up over $400 so I figured why hang around.

Well I fell off the horse and figured today it's time to get back on. With PJ's magic formula score sheet, which no one is supposed to know about, I was able to go back and have a successful day at the casino once again. I took my wife so I let her go to the spa for a massage and I massaged the chips at the baccarat table. I look to play two shoes, and come out with 20 units or as much as possible less than that. Once I'm +10 I'm looking to get out. You will notice on my very first shoe, using system 40, by hand 23 I had my +10 and thankfully stopped. I dropped down from there but had I stayed in I had another shot at hand 56 to get out once again but I was already long gone. The bad part is if I played this shoe until the end, I would have wound up losing 4 units. Guess a bird in the hand (+10 units) is worth two in the bush. Hey what is this a Geico commercial. I'm waiting 8-10 hand so that I don't jump on a long streak from the very beginning which I would have on shoe #1 with a five in a row. Then as you can see it chopped around for some time allowing me to be up +10 at hand 23. I was using a conservative progression of 1,2,2,1,2,3,4. Good thing for that because I had a hell of a string of losses starting at hand 57. Keep in mind, at that point it was on paper. Don't know what you can do about that. Does anyone, possibly Ellis, have an answer for that other than riding it out. In the second shoe, I didn't start betting until hand 10, again looking not to get in on any streaks if I could help it and once again you had a four in a row starting at hand 4. Not a real long one but don't like getting in one of those if I can help it. Notice my SAP count on both sides. Both were basically going for 2's and then crossing over. So I decided to take advantage of that on some bets and only make a paper bet after the 1 on each side and then actually betting it would stop at 2 which it did at hands 17 and 20. I ran up an 8 unit profit at that time and thought to myself, this can be a good day if I stop right now. With a profit of 18 green units, it was nice, my wife was there so we went to eat on the house, had a glass of wine, and called it a day. I like PJ's score card, shhhhhhhhh, but don't tell him that or he'll want some of the profits. I'll attempt to attach the two shoes to this post if I can. Other wise the second will be on the next post. I do hate those streaks though and don't know at this point what you can do about it. Oh, and those numbers to extreme right outside the S column, are my O/R count. A minus count to me is chop.