Wendel
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Posts posted by Wendel
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S4 is still a streak system, it's purpose I believe is to get you on runs quicker. Your idea might work as a tweak to S4 in a high 3's and 1's situation.
I'll have to think it through some more, but this might work. Not sure what the consequences will be if a run of TT or 4+'s hits before the SAP count points to a different system, but I think we can test it out.
If we lose our opposite after 3 iar and win the bet back I would bet repeats until the run ended.
The TT's occur before the tweak, so the consequences will be the same. Hopefully with high 3's we will get to OTB4L,or s1 before losing our prog. Higher 2's may have to come at the expens of 1's or 3's.
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Excellent remarks gman!
Moreover, it looks like it is going to be mostly you and I designing this system.
Correct, the primary prog is where the money is and success on the primary prog is a function of selecting the right system at the right time.
I don't think we can get away with just looking at the highest count. I think you were right about that - we need to match the highest two counts to the right system. There is no getting away from it. The 2nd high count often decides the issue.
An example is high 2s: Together with high 1's it is clearly S40.
But together with high 3s it is clearly OTB4L.
I think our weakest link at the moment is high 3s.
We are good when high 3s are together with high 2s.
But none of our 3 current systems covers high 3s with high 1's.
It was previously suggested that we also incorporate S40M3 because it beats 1's and 2s and 3s. That is a pretty strong argument.
While M3 with a 123 prog only breaks even on 3s it does make a unit on both 1's and 2s.
Since we are already well covered for high 2s and 3s
I'm thinking about S40M3 with a 102 prog for high 1's and 3s. It would make 1 unit on a 1, lose 1 unit on a 2 and win 1 unit on a 3.
It would lose 3 units on a 4 but a 4 would then put us OTR.
Does this give you any ideas?
S40M1 may work for High 1's and 3's , IF we bet opposite after 3 iar instead of repeat when 1's and 3's are high.
Then bet back OTR if we lose the opposite bet.
In the shoes I see it wouldn't hurt to bet opposite after 3 iar always with s40m1. Its purpose is no longer to be a streak system . Right?
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Well, there is only one set of standard rules and they are purely mechanical. The rules for each of the 3 MDB systems have never wavered. Certainly the odds of 4 or 5 3s before there is a 4 is far from 50/50. More like 90/10.
If we see any true improvements we could make to the rules we'll check them out.
For instance, I'm not completely happy with only looking at the event that is highest.
High 1's and 2s: S40 has that well covered
High 2s and 3s: OTB4L has that well covered
High 1's and 4+ S40 M1 has that well covered
But what about high 1's and 3s???
And what about high 2s and 4+???
We can't pretend that only looking at the highest event solves all problems. Because there are two right there it doesn't solve.
We are still missing something.
There has to be a component I'm just not seeing yet.
How about just going with the most recent event(s) when there is a tough call ?
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I'm always looking for shoes to practice on. I decided to use the simulated shoes over on the Wizard of Odds site. You can find them here on this page down under Simulations. http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/
Here is what the website says about the shoes:
I'm using the simulation 1 file and have worked the first 40 shoes.
The results are 23 shoes won and 17 shoes lost, for a shoe win rate of 57.5%.
I won 150 units and lost 81 units for a net win before commission of +69 units.
That's an average of +1.725 units per shoe. Let's just say for simplicity, +1 unit per shoe net of commission.
This is not too great, but it's better than losing. I've gotten better and learned/had clarified a few more things since I started working the shoes, so I'm going to work the next 40 shoes and see how MDB fares.
The way I work the shoe, so it resembles live play by not seeing the whole shoe, is this:
I downloaded the file to excel. Each row is a shoe. What I do is highlight the row and change the font color to white, that way I can't see the whole shoe. Then I select the first cell where I can see the result in the top bar. I then make my bet for the next play and then hit the arrow button to the next cell to the right to see the result. Works ok.
Edit: I forgot to point out, I started each shoe at play 2 using S1 and switching systems based on SAP.
Hi Gman,
I really like your practise method with EXCEL.
This also seems to be a viable way to preserve our own shoes.
If only we had macros to translate BTC shorthand (i.e. P2211) to comma delimited format (P,P,B,B,P,P) or directly into EXCEL.
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Well, I've often said, don't play simulater (RG) shoes except maybe to practice getting your systems down pat. While System selection is our greatest asset, it is totally meaningless in RG shoes. So is table selection. So is whatever system you play.
The Wizard is a great Mathematician but a horrible player. He doesn't even grasp the basics of winning play - otherwise he wouldn't be posting RG shoes.
Also, he doesn't grasp the basics of how players play. His 3 iar, for instance is a 4iar to the whole Baccarat world. His 3 iar is 4 vertical circles or 3 Repeats iar. Therefor, all of his frequency of events computations are off by a factor of 100%.
He also doesn't realize that players play in individual shoes. Nobody plays continuous Baccarat in the real world. His 10iar for instance could be one shoe ending in 5 Banks and another shoe beginning with 5 banks. This throws off his frequency of events by a second huge factor particularly looking at his longer runs.
The Wizard applaudes himself for creating fictional random shoes.. That misses the whole point of how players play in the real world and what Baccarat systems are based on. He is playing in a fictional world. Like most Mathematicians, he has no clue of real world Baccarat. Statistics generated playing RGs are totally meaningless.
I consider RGs a complete waste of time. I consider the Wizard a complete waste of time. If he was teaching golf he would be telling you to forget wind and weather altogether - and that would be another complete waste of time.
Watch my lips: Whether regular or preshuffled cards, you will NEVER play random cards in a casino. Think about it: If the cards were random, casino profits would be reduced to commission because it wouldn't matter a hoot whether you bet P or B or how much. The cards are random for crying out loud. In such a world, casinos would drop Baccarat altogether as non profitable. They certainly cannot live on 1.25% commission. But in the real world, casinos could drop commission altogether as Horseshoe, Vegas demonstrated and Baccarat would STILL be their #1 profit maker.
Guys, stop wasting your time. If you don't have a collection of your own real shoes to play, play Norm's.
Also, Zuma has real shoes but they are taken out of sequential order making them almost meaningless but not as meaningless as an RG.
Sorry, but your 1 unit average against RGs is totally meaningless. Eventually you will break even no matter how you play. They are RGs for crying out loud. That is what "random" means.
Whew !!!! . He had me worried there for a minute.
Thanks, Ellis
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Ask your MDB rules questions here.
Hi Ellis,
so far your MDB rules are superb, but there is no mention of zz runs.
Are we playing zz runs the same way as the ST runs ?
Thanks
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Hmm, you mean "upstream".
upstream on a river, upwind on a lake
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Hmm, you said a lot there Wendel. The question is, why are you getting to -5 so frequently? The shoes posted thus far get to -5 infrequently. I'm thinking you are playing a pile of regular cards shoes that are in no particular order. In a casino, you would normally have a good idea what system to start with. You are usually starting your first casino shoe mid shoe so the tote board is telling you which events are high.
With preshuffled cards your second shoe at the same table is the same cards you just played.
With regular cards it is the same cards as the shoe before last.
To make a practice session realistic, You need to give yourself the same benefits you would have in a casino.
The only way you could be hitting -5 so frequently is starting with the wrong system frequently.
When playing a pile of practice shoes, you are best off to wait until SAP tells you what to play.
And if, for whatever reason, you are playing in the blind in a casino (something I always avoid) again you would need to wait for a SAP count to emerge.
Always starting at play 2 with BaS40 assumes you are playing preshuffled cards which are usually high in 1's and 2s. So your odds of winning your first prog are better than 75% if you bet a 1,2 prog to start. And by then, your SAP count is beginning to dictate.
But if you wait for a winning one to bet 2, you reduce your odds to 50%.
Therefore if you like the idea of waiting for a winning 1, you should also wait for your SAP count to reveal a system. Otherwise you are betting 50/50 - something we try to avoid.
It is best to conduct your practice sessions as close to casino conditions as possible. Why hadicap yourself with unrealistic conditions?
In a casino, if you've been seeing lots of 3+s, you need to wait for SAP. And with regular cards, you need to go by history to start.
In other words you only want to start at play 2 with BaS40 if the tote boards are, in fact, showing high 1's and 2s.
Hi Ellis,
Thank you for your comments.
I am beginning to see that if I am NOT playing pre shuffled cards in Vegas then I am basically paddling (to be polite) upwind.
Further, I have available to me 2 casinos . 1 has 2 mini bac tables and I has 1 EZ Bac table, so I have virtually no table selection.
I mainly practise against shoes that i have personally played at these casinos and shoes that are posted on the forum.
The better game is at the EZ bac table . If I exit a shoe early ,that probably ends my session, because killing an hour between games is not an easy thing to do in a casino without blowing some of your winnings. Blackjack here offers little table selection.
Last evening , I waited around for an hour for players to show up. I started playing when 1 player showed up. After 3/4 of a shoe ,
I quit(+0) and didn't even wait for the next shoe(all the players had left).
I will put the suggestions you have made into practise as opportunity presents itself.
Thanks again.
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Sorry Ellis,
I'm not seeing the switch to OTB4L. At hand 9 you have SAP = 3 2 4 0. Not knowing what's coming next in live play what is prompting you to switch? If anything, wouldn't it be a weak S40M1 switch per the SAP count?
I always thought that we should ignore the first event of a shoe,because it may be a fragment of a larger event created by the cut. My first choice at 9 would have been S40M1 which if played through would have won, but I think the subsequent 2's would have put me on to OTB4L. I think I played this shoe that way , but the outcome is buried in a pile of practise shoes somewhere.
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How do I upload a scanned shoe image? This site is asking for a URL ? This is different from how we used to upload? Do you know how to attach an image?
hi GolfGirl,
when you start a new "post to thread " or "reply with quote" there will be a box marked "Go Advanced in your bottom rh corner.
Press that and go to halfway down the next screen
and press "manage attachments" .
That should get you started. Just follow the prompts on the next screen.
Wendel.
p.s. on re-reading your post, I think that you may have already gone that far
and are experiencing "technical difficulties" as I am.
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Lou, I try to stay with the -5 stop loss. You see that I hit it in that #4 shoe. In live play, I probably would have gotten out, especially when facing a two bet. I just played the shoe out for practice.
One thing I'm struggling with in my practice of MDB +5 is that I seem to hit -4 and -5 often, but when I continue to play, I almost always seem to finally get to +5. And when I do hit -4 or -5 it rarely goes any lower. I know I've only worked a small number of shoes in the grand scheme of things, but I've worked a lot and that is what I keep running up against. I'm afraid this is going to tempt me to press that -5 stop loss a little bit.
I have been at or close to -5 in practise and in live play most of the time.
My latest theory on this topic is that if we don't take our stop losses seriously in practise , we are less likely to take them seriously
in live play. After all we see in practise that -5 isn't the end of the world, and more often than not we can recover by playing
perfectly.
Having said said that, I have gone past -5 in the casino, using flat bets until a lost 2 bet won't put me at -5 or lower and recovered everytime (not that many times and despite not playing perfectly).
My next thought is that when we are trying to recover , flat betting may be counterproductive.
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So, when SAP indicates a change of systems, would we end the shoe there ,draw a line on the scorecard,
abandon any on going sp's & reset everything as though we were beginning a new shoe ?
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Thanks Gman,
Yes, I was hoping the S40M3 would have performed better. Maybe it can if played in "conservative mode"....
btw - I played this shoe starting at hand 5 (the first opposite) using BaS40 and didn't fare well so I switched to BaOTB4L mid-shoe only to find that BaS40 was becoming dominant. That's the whole reason S40M3 came to mind to try and catch a bit of both.
Sorry guys, I'm still looking for that "go to" default system that could catch a few of each type of shoe and get to +5 units. Maybe in vain.....
FWIW - if you start at hand 6 (after you notice the 1st opposite at hand 5) using S40M3 1230123 I get a +5 by hand 20. Could that be a hint in the right direction? For this shoe anyway, it seems that if you wait for the iar runs to exhaust themselves you could capitalize on the ZZ / S40M3 method. Anyone else seeing this?
I have thought for some time that what we are trying to do is get past these "weeds" to the parts of the shoe that we like . There is not much money in betting ATR (beyond 1-2).
A lot of my recent wins have come from hitting a moderate to long run close to the top (zz or ST). otherwise i would have been lucky to be even.
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Wendell,
could you please explain this again...I seem to somehow got lost in how to apply this...thanks..
I will give it a try !!
I am sorry , but I am having trouble uploading and attaching the diagram for this post.
Scenario 1 a sequence of b1312
the bets starting at play 3 are B1 B2 B1 P2
since the third bet won our next bet
is 2 opposite the winning bank bet
This is just a normal S40 opposite bet
The last bets do what a single 3 unit bet used
to do and we are even.
If the 4th bet bet loses we are down 4 instead of 6
going on the run.
If we were playing m2 we would be down 3 going on the run.
Scenario 2 a sequence of b1412
starting at play 3 are B1 B2 B1 P0
since the third bet Lost our next bet
is on the run . 0 if it is our first on the run bet
We are down 4 going on the run.
Overall our worst case is down 4
Does this help ?
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Wendell,
this post is cancelled due to technical difficulties
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I thought I would run this past the S40M3 guys who want a secondary prog
Play s40m3 with a 121 prog (all ATR)
If the third bet wins (having lost the first 2 bets) bet 2 units opposite the the third bet (or according to shoe history for the 2 unit bet)
If the third bet loses go OTR with the standard 0123 secondary prog .
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Yes, Wendel that is correct, but since it was the first ZZ OTR win and it was at 5iar at that point, I continued the ZZ OTR with a B1 bet at play 48. All the prior ZZ runs had lost after a 4iar (plays 30 & 38). This is why I was confused on the correct course of action at this point, since the run had already gone longer than the prior runs when the secondary progression bet won at play 47, I just decided to stay OTR.
Play 65 I had the same thinking with the ST run that went to a 5iar, which was longer than the two prior 4iar ST runs, so I stayed OTR.
Personally, I prefer to do as you did. Having just gotten out of an ATR situation, I don't look forward to going back into it against a potentially stronger run.
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Hi,
At Play 48, wouldn't the normal OTB4L play be a P1 ?
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I played your shoe in BaS40M1 and BaS40. FYI: I had to adjust the shoe since your second column only had 19 plays. I took the 1 banker first play in the third column and made it play 20 and started the third column with P2.
Here it is BaS40M1: [ATTACH]2940[/ATTACH]
Here it is BaS40: [ATTACH]2941[/ATTACH]
I'm trying to follow the rules, so I hope I got it right. Check it out and please point out any errors.
I'm still working on BaOTB4L. Have to wrap my head around understanding OTR and ATR with the secondary progression when we take ZZ runs into account along with straight runs. I'm practicing. I'd love to see a shoe played out by Ellis with this method.
Hi gman,
I agree with the BAS40 solution
I found a discrepancy at play 6 in the BaS40SM1 solution.
If your intention was to continue the previous run, the run was stopped by the banker win
and the 0 bet at 5 was a loser,
I think 6 should be a p1 (opposite the banker win at play 5.
This would change the next handful of plays at least , so I didn't continue.
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Problem is even good OTB4L shoes can have 4 iars both straight and ZZ. And if that happens back to back you're gona lose.
Hmm maybe trying OTB4L mode 1 is worth looking into. Might be a lot of 0 bets with that though... seems like it would be tough to get to +5 that way due to lack of bets.
I have tried OTBL4 M1 NOR (not +5). You don't have a problem with 4's and 5's but with 3's . Other than that it works great.
I have been meaning to revisit that using a 1-2-1-2 prog to make it easier to get out of the issues with 3 iar's.
good luck.
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I honestly don't know if these are preshuffled or not, but it is shoe #28 from Norm's 60 Vegas shoes.
And aren't we constantly told that Vegas is all preshuffled?
I don't think it matters if it isn't a pre shuffled shoe. All we are trying to do is practise the mechanics of s40M1 +5.
Besides , this seems to be a low risk mode free way to pick an average win of 5 units.
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Here's a shoe to practice on. Try this one with S40M1 and see how you do. There are a few spots where I can't decide what's the right way to bet.
[ATTACH]2926[/ATTACH]
Hi Gman,
Could you please let me have a blank copy of this form (without the circles ) so that I could draw my
own circles on it ?
Thanka
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It's the decision after play 7 that I'm talking about.
In this instance you bet play 8 as opposite (p1), which is going back to the primary progression after the ATR win at play 7.
I bet OTR at play 8 (b1) after the ATR win at play 7, since the last run from the 0 bet went to a 4iar. That was my thinking.
there is no run at play 7 ,just a sporadic 1 , any play ending in R(un) does not apply.
just go opposite, which is the primary bet of s40. The sporadic 1 terminated the 2iar on the player side.
Well, actually there is a 2iar zz. play the opposite.
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Reasonable would be to just restart your primary progression. Might work, might not, but it's reasonable.
I think you would have to wait for the current run to end and restart after the next 2iar. Run it past Ellis.
p.s. OTR is 1 unit.
Reward for the first MDB Millionaire. Just an Idea
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Hi gman,
I have almost completely forgotten the length rules for zz runs playing the MDB systems.
I had hoped they would be written in the NEW mdb rules thread.
Are you letting the zz runs run to the end or are you following rules similar to the ST runs ?
If you could point me to where the zz rules are written , I would appreciate it.
Thanks
Wendel