Wendel
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Posts posted by Wendel
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Yep, I'm still having trouble figuring out the correct play after the 1 or 2 unit secondary progression bet wins when it's an ATR bet. Especially when the shoe like this is choppy and there hasn't been any real long runs.
By play 14 there had been a 4iar and then a 3iar, confirmed after play 11, so when I won the 1b secondary progression bet ATR at play 14, I stayed OTR at play 15 and 16 following the last run of 3iar. That's what I did, not sure if correct, I'm still trying to get it figured out.
Now, you have me wondering.
I think we only play the runs on the primary side not on the ATR side.
If we lost our primary and secondary ATR bets we would go on the run. if the OTR
bet hit we would play that run as appropriate.
IF you haven't already take a long look at post 65 in the Million Dollar Bacarat @ 5 thread.
That post has the same attachment as several other threads , but this one gives,
I think, a good summary of how the 0 bet is used.
the subsequent few threads are also pretty good.
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Here's how I played it out, S40M1 +5.
[ATTACH]2924[/ATTACH]
For some reason I can no longer attach the image to appear in the post. When I try to insert image from my computer nothing happens when I click the button to find the file. I can click on basic uploader and then it lets me include a link. I never used to have any problems, not sure why I am now.
I like the attachments separate anyway. I find them easier to print file and reference.
Anyway, I think our solutions are out of sync
At play 8, I played opposite (p1)
At play 15, I played opposite (p1) I can't think of the rational for playing bank here
At play 16 I played under the 2 iar (b0) The previous secondary prog ended at play 14.
at play 20, I played p1 to follow the 0 at 16.
at play 22 I played B2
at play 24 I played P3
at play 26 I played B0
actually we are closer than I thought.
I like your version better, but I think mine was correct.
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Start the shoe at play #2 and stopped out with a -5 at play #6 facing a 2 bet. Brutal. By the time you would hit +6 you'd have faced -5 three times and -6 facing a 2 bet as well. Oops that's playing BaS40, not S40M1, my mistake.
I started with a 0 bet under the first 2iar, play 3, and it went down hill from there for a while.
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Start the shoe at play #2 and stopped out with a -5 at play #6 facing a 2 bet. Brutal. By the time you would hit +6 you'd have faced -5 three times and -6 facing a 2 bet as well.
Brutal is a good word for it , although an understatement.
I got all the way to -8, lost the complete secondary prog. just before the zzz run started. got all my money back + 6.
gotta love those runs.
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Here is a thought especially for those convinced that they should stay on all runs until they lose.
Right now if we stay on a run only through 4, we make 6s culprit. A 6 makes us lose 123 ATR.
Likewise staying thru 5 makes 7s culprit.
And staying thru 6 makes 8s culprit.
9s are nearly always culprit unless they are the first run of the shoe.
In every case we lose 6 units which is pretty much unrecoverable since we are betting so low.
Whether above or below normal, runs are a fact of life and they can occur at any time in any shoe.
The way I have it right now, unless it is the first run of the shoe, runs too long are, by far, our major culprit.
We will lose a shoe on runs far more often than by losing our secondary prog. So runs too long are our major culprit right now.
But there is a simple way to reduce our Maximum exposure from runs to only 2 units. -2 is very recoverable. -6 isn't.
So ok, we still come off of runs at the currently prescribed point determined by the prior run.
But when the run keeps going so we lose our ATR 1 bet, we simply go back on the run with 1 and stay until we lose.
The WORST that could happen is we attempt going back on the run but it ends right there and we lose a second 1 bet. Big whip! There are lots of ways we lose two 1 bets in a row and we think nothing of it (plays 12 and 13) (plays 16 and 17) because, while a nusaince, we know -2 is recoverable.
In fact a minus 112111 was recoverable (plays 12 thru 17) so back to back -1's are easily recoverable.
This way ALL long runs become profitable and really long runs of 10 or more get us to +5 automatically before the forced loss at the end of the run.
We eliminate runs as a culprit altogether. We eliminate our major culprit.
Do you think that's maybe a smarter way to play?
Also it is a good compromise with the OTR boys.
It seems to me , that if we stay on the runs to the end, we stand to lose 1 unit at the end
and don't have to play the losing ATR to lose 6units.
Further , I think that a run longer than about 3 is a bias, and who bets against a bias ?
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took s40M1 +5 version to the casino yesterday.
Here is the shoe:
B42131221121
B1221111111116
B31
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???
Would someone be willing to point out where in the posts Ellis says that after a ATR secondary progression bet loses that the next bet is an OTR primary progression continuation bet?
What other reasonable option do you have ? you are sitting there, having lost your secondary progression bet ATR.
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Chief,
Jumping in to head off a confusion crisis....
I see the play at hand 27, 43, 53 and 61 are all consistent. They go back to opposite after a red win.
The only one that doesn't is hand 7.
The second question is the play at hand 17. Is that correct?
Other than that, the shoe moved along nicely and more importantly, it actually made sense in the play!
Thanks.
MVS
Hi MVS,
I think that hand 17 may be an OTR attempt similar to what we discussed yesterday. (361).
He lost all three bets ATR which includes the bet for the secondary prog.
Now there is nowhere to go but OTR.
Wendel
p.s.
Are you numbering your plays beginning with 0 ?
we seem to be out of sync by 1.
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Well, you're right it ain't pretty and you are likely better off with OTB4L
But it isn't the end of the world either.
Remember you always bet that 3s will go to 4;
[ATTACH]2919[/ATTACH]
Thanks,
That solution works for me .
Wendel
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Wendel,
It would appear that we're all all the same page and coming up with the same questions. I think this is a good thing!!
Anyway, I believe the answer to your question, and this is only because I've run into it a few times already is this:
B36 is what we're working with at the start of the shoe.
Hand 1 - NB
Hand 2 - NB
Hand 3 - a red zero and it wins meaning we will be betting the 2's do NOT go to 3.
Hand 4 - lose 1 and it ends that sequence.
Hand 5 - is the first oppostite (S40M1) wager and it also loses.
Hand 6 - bets that the two will stay a two. It loses.
Hand 7 - restarts the opposites of S40M1. It loses.
Hand 8 - Bets under the previous hand as it is NOT a "2" and we're playing S40M1, which is the normal wager.
Hand 9 - Wins as it is a regular S40M1 wager OTR.
At least that's how I understand the logic of the play.
With a "2" in the mix, there is no "progression in a progression" wager.
If I am incorrect, I'm sure someone will come to our aid.
MVS (for some reason this method has grabbed me pretty good)
Hmm, I see Commander Ellis posted up the reply while I was making mine! Oh well, it was a good try. I missed the "3's will go to 4" thing. Arrrrgh.
Thanks, MVS
I am glad to see that I am not the only one.
I found myself hanging out there after the 1 bet ATR and wondering if I should follow
immediately with my 2 bet and 3 bet.
Wendel
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Hi,
I just can't hold this question any longer . I apologize if it is obvious and I can't see it
or if it is yet to be dealt with.
I cannot see how to deal with a sequence of
B36
or any sequence where a long(er) run follows a winning 0 bet
at the beginning of the shoe or later where there are no unresolved 0 bets.
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No, he does not. After loosing a progression, he switches sides for 1 bet and stays on that side unitl he looses. If he should win his progression M3 bet, he remains on that side until he looses. It is a hybrid of SD40M3 and FSS. He is playing chop unitl it turns into a streak and just follows the streak until it ends then resumes SD40M3. It is working for him just fine thus far in his Millionaire in a Month quest. Do you happen to know what system Norm played before he passesd away?
I kind of like that approach, including playing on S40 M3. Unfortunately , I only have a 1 table casino and a 2 table casino, so I have to play what
there is or not play.
I believe that Norm played a 2 hi mandatory 2 prog, mandatory 2 means that all a 2 bet follows a 1 bet whether the 1 bet wins or loses.
I think that he also would suspend the mandatory 2 bet if it fell where he didn't want to make a 2 bet there for some reason.
He intended to explain it in more detail, but there is a post somwhere where he gives a brief description. If you search through
the posts by Norma (there aren't that many) you may find what he has posted on the topic.
A lot of his posts are good reads anyway.
I have been experimenting with something similar I think, but I like to play it with S40 M2. this works out to the second optional OTR
bet alway being a 2 bet.
I don't have your scorecard in front of me, but I would have bet 121 atr and 2 otr (or 0 otr to maintain the integrity of the M3)
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Thank you for your kind response.
1) yes, the 2 shoes were played on different tables.
2) no, I selected M3 based on the advice from one of our forum members who plays SD40M3 all the time. I did not use the OR count to select the mode.
3) I replayed both shoes using OTB4L entering the shoe at the same place that I entered the shoe using SD40M3. The results are that the first shoe would have yeilded a result of +2 units and the second shoe would have yeilded results of +1 units.
4) Yes, I should have recorded the next few plays after I stopped playing to see if I should have played on, I shall do that in the future.
I think my mistake was that I was searching for a SD40M3 shoe and I did not see enough of a history of that bias before I entered. It was only 4 or 5 plays that showed SD40M3 and perhaps 4 or 5 plays is not a true bias? Perhaps I should look for 12 to 15 to 20 plays to show me a true bias? Not sure??
Although the 4 iar at the top of the first shoe may not have been a "true 4 iar" ,being the result of the cut. It may
have been enough to disqualify this table as a s40M1 table. At the very best a 4iar puts you on the run and down 5.
Does your experienced friend recommend to you that you play s40 M3 and quit if you lose a progression ?
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I have attached my 2 loosing shoes from today's attempt at the $50 level on my Millionaire in a Month quest. Please take a look and tell me everything that I did wrong and how you would have played these 2 shoes. I am eager to learn, so, let it rip!![ATTACH]2910[/ATTACH]were these 2 shoes played on different tables or on the same table ?
Did you select M3 for your mode based on the O/R count ?
One could have justified playing both of these shoes with OTB4L.
I think playing the less aggressive prog in the second shoe to confirm the mode was a good idea.
I would have liked to see the next outcome in both shoes.
Perhaps you quit too soon.
I have no real criticism of how you played S40 M3, but I noticed that both shoes would have played
better with OTB4L.
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In one of his posts describing Bas40, which is a +5 strategy,
Ellis has written
"In all cases stay on the run until you lose," after describing some OTR scenarios.
So, if BACDJ126 is playing BaS40 , he is doing it by the "BaS40 book"
and not the NOR Book.
I think everybody is right on this one.
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I jumped in with system 40. Which is probably the wrong thing to do, based on NOR, but I play 40 a bit different. I use a 1,2,3 negative progression and stay OTR if I lose the 3rd bet, until the next opposite.
So shoe started like this:
P412213271223111
I was confident to use 40 , since the long 7 run of Banker, there was mostly 1 and 2 runs...the next part of the shoe went like this:
B3231122 (I got out at this point up 5 units) but stuck around to watch the remainder of the shoe, which was:
P111111121111211122341
I would of killed the remaining shoe...gggrrrrr
I thought that the 3 iar and 3 ones at the end of the first section might have
been indicating a change in the shoe to S40. I am not sure how I would have handled this in the "heat of battle"
I was as high as +17 at the end of the first section (I found an error in translating the first part of the shoe)
so I was actually plus 15 at play 28 and plus 18 after the second section. With any kind of luck
I would have left with a +15 and not even looked back to see how the shoe ended because it may have taken a while
to recognize what was going on in the third part.
wendel
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Hi,
Hi Hamster,
I would play this shoe with NOR. If you want more specific answers ,you should post the
question in the NOR Forum. I don't think you will get a more detailed reply from
NOR members in the general forum.
Wendel
Wendel
ps
I hit +10 @ around play 28, where I have enough to quit, but something interesting appears to be happening after that point
in the shoe. I am looking forward to your post of the remainder of the shoe.
W
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Question for members and non-members.
I played a partial shoe the other night, and when I walked up to the table, this is what the tote board showed:
P412213271223111
Tell me how you would play this shoe and I will post the remainder of the shoe and how I played it. Then we can compare results...
Hamster
Hi,
Hi Hamster,
I would play this shoe with NOR. If you want more specific answers ,you should post the
question in the NOR Forum. I don't think you will get a more detailed reply from
NOR members in the general forum.
Wendel
Wendel
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General question for everyone...
How many shoes must you play before you can determine if you are a long-term winning player or losing player in Bacarat?
For example:
Let's someone starts playing Bacarat and attempts to learn or develop their own system.
They play 2 to 3 times a week and probably go through 10 to 15 shoes a week.
Next, 3 months goes by and they are up $8000 betting $25,50, and $75 progression.
They decide at this point to quit their job and play full time... only to find out...etc...
I imagine this has happened to many people in the gambling world...especially poker players.
I don't think there are "enough" shoes to guarantee long term success , and the fringe benefits are lousy. anyway.
Never quit you day job, or find one that you can live with.
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Thank you Wendel! That was great information you gave me! Do you think I should have selected F system or OTB4L before I started playing the shoe instead of the S40 that I used?
I think that you did quite well with S40. Starting where you did, the appropriate choice was S40.
If you had waited a dozen hands or so , you may have chosen OTB4L , but I am not sure you would have done any better.
I wouldn't have chosen F for sure. I seldom play F , but when I do I probably will have switched someplace mid shoe.
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p.s.
The enhanced rule for zz runs is exactly opposite to ST runs
for zz runs
if the o/r count is greater than 0 (+) play mode 2
if the o/r count is zero or - play mode 3
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[ATTACH]2878[/ATTACH] Hello everyone, here is my shoe from Casino Niagara in Niagara Falls, Canada. Can you please all chime in and tell me how YOU would have played this shoe compared to how I played it? I am new to NOR and need all the feed back you veterans can offer! Thank you for your help, greatlyey apprecaited!
Hi Tracy,
Actually, I thought that although you got in pretty deep early you managed it quite well.
This shoe is not easy to play.
But, you may not be aware of the refinement that has been made to mode selection
and is buried somewhere in the forum.
if the o/r count is greater than 0 (+) play mode 3
if the o/r count is zero or - play mode 2
Had you done that you would have beaten the first 4 iar and lost to the following 3 iar,
but the rest of the shoe may have gone better. I haven't played it yet.
and, as the previous poster has said it is easy to play a shoe after the fact,
but I would try it using the above rule for selecting mode
Wendel.
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Wendel its case sensative you have to type in all caps
Thanks, BaccDJ126
I finally got the last one 4d-Analyzer-live-play(1) to work.
I think I may have the wrong version of Excel and it was not presenting the password screen after I had tried to save
the work sheet. I at least got to try what I wanted to try. I will play with it some more. Its probably just something procedural
that I am not getting right.
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Hi,
These analyzers aren't recognizing the password supplied in Post #1.
Does that mean the versions posted here are obsolete ?
Which version of these analyzers is everyone using ?
Thanks.
Wendel
I have attached my 2 loosing shoes from today's attempt at the $50 level on my Millionaire in a Month quest. Please take a look and tell me everything that I did wrong and how you would have played these 2 shoes. I am eager to learn, so, let it rip!![ATTACH]2910[/ATTACH]
+6 the hard way (S40M1 +5 version)
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted · Edited by Wendel
addwd 2 line3s at bottom
I think if you lose the OTR bet , just go back to playing opposite the winning side, which would put you under the bet you just lost.
If you win , you should be sitting on a 4 iar. decide if you want to continue betting OTR , or if you want to leave the run after 4 iar
and play opposite. If the last previous run was 5 or more , you would probably stay OTR for a bet or 2 . If 4 or less play opposite.
Check Ellis's most recent posts in the S40 m2 thread.
The specifics may be a little different for M2 , but the length of runs should apply as per Ellis's recent posts on the topic
or your preferences. If you win OTR in M2 , I think you are sitting on a 5iar.
At one point , I think Ellis was using a minimum length of 4. so if your o bet won you would
bet once more otr regardless of whether there was a previous 4 or more. I think that still applies.