Action Mike
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Posts posted by Action Mike
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I'd love to input this into the database I just built.
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Hello All,
I have a new application underway to analyze baccarat shoes. I can already display complete shoes with scorecards including several of the counts we commonly use. The next step is to start reporting on statistics. I already have the 1000 shoes from Wizard of odds in the system and will be keying in over 100 shoes of my own collected data by the end of the month. If anyone has shoes in computerized form, I'd be interested in uploading it the database to improve the stats. Doesn't matter what format the data is in, if there is enough of it, I can have my programmer translate it into the database.
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I'm working on 3 potential new candidates that do not currently belong to the forum at all. Two players from South Florida and one person who is a friend of mine that I know would be able to apply the knowledge and begin playing. What is the cost for them to get in? For my friend, I might pay for it.
P.S. If it becomes free, you can use the money I paid already as a donation to the forum.
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Code is working now. I'll see you guys there.
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Just read this thread. I wrote specs last year for a web/database application to do exactly what was proposed here with tracking data uploaded by multiple people. Between my business ventures and my on and off table action, I have yet to sit down with a programmer to implement the idea. Seeing Way2Fast reach his million has reminded me that I need to get my act together and get moving towards the million again, as well as getting this software up and running. Hopefully by the end of this year I will be well on my way to both goals.
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I'm playing at the same place trbfla is playing. Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood, FL. We finally played together yesterday. I left for the day +20 over 6 shoes, after a very rocky start. Went back today for another +13 in two shoes. Hoping for another good day tomorrow.
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Sorry I've disappeared. My Vegas trips were as much about leading a double life as they were about Baccarat. I spent 80 nights in Vegas last year, but I haven't played in Vegas since October, and my last trip there was to pack up all of my belongings in November during which I didn't even play. I've been playing high limit in South Florida since October. I haven't had a losing day in the last 6 weeks, knock on wood. I'm not playing any particular system per se, but I commonly bet that 1s will go to 2s and I went back to only tracking P/B and O/R. I don't bet every hand. I aim to play a couple of times a week, and only for a few partial shoes. Generally in and out within 1 to 3 hours. I'm playing mostly $500 units and I generally limit myself to a 20 to 40 unit bankroll, cashing out as necessary to make sure a bad day can't set me back too much. I have not completed MDB, as I am not comfortable going beyond $1000 units yet. It has become all business for me. I don't go with friends and I don't talk about it much. I log everything into QuickBooks on a daily basis as I have reached a point of so much profit this year, I'm already preparing for the taxes I can't avoid paying. I'm not planning on going back to Vegas until May this year, and even then it will primarily be for fun based on the comps I have accrued from last year's play. I'll be more active again once I get to a point where I'm comfortable what I'm doing is documentable and teachable. Right now the best advise I can give is play only when you're at 100% of your faculties, don't allow emotions to exist while playing, get in and out quickly once you are up, but remember at all costs stop loss is way more important than stop win.
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I'll be there. Anyone else going, feel free to hit me up!
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I'm scheduled to be in Vegas from the 26th to the 29th of September anyway, so I'll have to give this a shot. Anyone have some ideas on tournament style play?
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Brendan, AOW is the All Out War System. There is another post about it in this forum. How often do they change the cards for the Palazzo Stadium game? Is it every shoe, every few hours or every day?
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Does anyone know how the cards are handled there? Is it preshuffled, reused, etc? I remember the limits were $10-$50,000. That would make for a very interesting AOW game, especially considering it might be a little easier to use a video machine to handle the chips given the amount of units flowing through.
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AOW brings up an interesting concept... Using a $20000 bankroll, one could play AOW with $100 units or play MDB+ with $1000 units. For Vegas preshuffled touch shoes, this might be viable. Doubling the bankroll in 5 winning shoes is the foundation for my million in 30 day plan. If AOW is averaging 50-100 units per shoe, than it is certainly on track. Considering this could be attempted with $25 units at some smaller casinos with a $5000 buyin, it is quite tempting.
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Hi guys i have to tell you this story real quick!!! As alot of you know i haven't been on consistently since Memorial Day I'm DJing at the Jersey shore 7 nights a week but i promise I'll be posting again after Labor Day I'll be back to playing 3 days a week!!! Last night i was DJing at one of the Jersey Shore Casinos and a high roller came up to me and handed me $500 to play a song which i did..i was done at 4am and on my way home decided to stop at the Borgata. They have a great selection of Baccarat Tables my new favorite place i saw a stone cold S40 table which i spotted from whaty Pompano Mikes says "From Clear Across The Casino" i sat down at this $20 Mini-Bacc table and bought in for $500 all black i started at play 11 Bet Bank my mindset was to play my normal S40M3 i was out at play 18 B121112 for a net of $585 never got to M3 lol so not bad for less than 15 mins of work!!! Hope everyone id winning and having fun...i cant stress enough Gambling is over approach this as a business discipline is the key if +3 4 or 5 is your goal stop get out the longer you stay the casino will eventually get you...will there be days you can do no wrong yes but there are days you will hit that -5 stop/loss leave tomorrow or next week is another day. I promise if your Discipline is right you will succeed if not you are just a gambler. How do i know...i was a gambler now I have discipline. Thanks for all the PMs and i hope i answered everyone but alot have said how can you leave the casino while you are winning...lol GAMBLERS!!!! +5 is the goal when you hit the goal you go....the ultimate goal is to make this a steady income...and something Pompano Nike said on the hour long You Tube Video that hit me..$25-$50 means nothing its not exciting hes a $100 player i too am a $100 player but my goal is to be a $1000 player and i want to play 3 days a week at that point my goal is to make $3000 a day $9000 a week i believe i can live comfortable off of that couldn't you? +3 is ALOT easier that +5 and i bet you GAMBLERS out there will get discipline really quick when you are investing that kind of money!!! Remember to pay yourself while building your bankroll...The best thing Ive learned from Ellis was pay off all your bills become debt free it makes a big difference!! i'm almost there TY Ellis!!!! any questions PM I'm happy to share but my system is basic NOR S40M3 is my system of choice and i look at the tables to find it ....I'm only looking to be at the table between 6-20 hands that's it!!
Mike
When I was winning every single day, day in, day out, trip after trip, this is how I was playing. I've changed a bit and I am now seeing massive swings. Really good days and really bad days. Greed gets to us all. I'm looking forward to going back to 5 unit hit and quit sessions.
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I played before and after the crawl and stayed a few extra days. Just returned this morning a bit tired. I played off system a bit, had mixed results. I did however run into two tables where I was playing MDB+ and lost the progression on 2's going to 3s. It happened to me Saturday and Sunday. In one case it went 8 twos without a 3. In at least one case there were ties mixed into the 2s. Aside from the issue with 2s not going to 3s, I didn't see any other failures. I don't have any scorecards to post as I ended up losing my score book in Vegas. While these shoes were killer shoes, they certainly only represented a small percentage of the toteboards I noticed that were very successful for MBD+. I believe the logical conclusion is that no system will beat 100% of shoes, but I am still impressed with MDB+
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Glad to see we are all thinking the same. I mentioned this to Keith two days ago. Play MDB for first 15 hands then switch to MDB+ We would already have the necessary counts by then for MDB+ This way every shoe is a winner.
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That's the problem I had when I replayed the shoes on paper over the weekend. I had 4 shoes in a row that were strong TB4L, then hit a TT run and I got murdered. I even played it on paper to end of shoe and in most cases it only got worse and the SAP count didn't help. On the other hand, when I looked at the shoes again, by using 2 highest SAP counts it made a difference. There will always be losing shoes, but it seemed to point back to 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 losing shoes. Either way we are still talking about a 15-25% advantage which is enough for me.
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Played last night. 7PM to 10PM
First shoe here I arrived at the table on hand 60, so I just logged the shoe and didn't play it.
Last shoe was a bit off system as I was getting impatient. I could have left and taken a loss, but it was going 313 and I was determined to stick it out. I managed to pull out of it.
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I must disagree. Evidence we have shows MDB worked very well as reported by people at various casinos across the country, Vegas included. While it might not be 90% I would be interested to see the results by using differing shoe starts, and differing stop win rates. Purely mechanical is the ultimate goal, but there needs to be enhanced rules to ensure that such as quitting a shoe at x positive count after x negative count. If we get to -4 and then rebound to +3, that's a 7 unit gain. If we start to slide do we really need to go all the way to -5? That can still be built into rules. I shudder to think that one report of 21 shoes showing a -7 net is reason to abandon a system that earlier showed double digit PA. I think tweaking that system can be done to reduce risk and fix the system.
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Gman,
Your last 3 months was not lost. Nor was mine. I'm replaying my shoes as well based on some simple tweaks and tying to get together with a programmer locally to build an automated system to test and log this data as well. I think MDB does work and I'm not ready yet to drop it for a system that spends 1/2 the shoe sitting waiting for an event. I can tell you that wouldn't work in South Florida because they won't deal any free hands after play 5 and I would prefer something that works locally and in Vegas.
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Ellis. My concern with playing only "secondary progression" bets is that we will be sitting waiting for 1/2 shoes and only placing 10 or less bets per shoe over the course of 40-80 hands played. The time spent on this would require larger unit sizes in order to realize the same profit per day. So where we might be able to play 5 shoes to +5/-5 in 30 hands or less (often 15-20 hands) in under 20 minutes, we are now going to be at a table for an hour or more. If this means we are increasing bet size to compensate for that we may need very large bankrolls. The risk/reward seems to be off.
I'm going to spend time today and this weekend testing my results on TB4L/OTB4L, shoe starts time, and using highest 1 vs highest 2 counts for system selection based on the shoes I have played at real tables in June. My concern is only for new preshuffled cards because if you are willing to play $100 units, there really isn't a casino that won't deal them this way in any of the major areas so I am not concerned if it doesn't do well on reused cards. I think we are on to something powerful with MDB that will allow a $100 to $5000 unit player to play consistently at any major casino with a double digit player advantage which is all we really need.
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We found last week that starting on play 4 using the system defined by the SAP count worked the best.
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I haven't tested it yet against my shoes, but my thought is basically looking into something that uses only TB4L and OTBL, choses it mechanically based on SAP count and has the primary and secondary progressions.
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Looking at this data, maybe replacing S4 with TB4L would be a good idea, and all 3 systems would use a 120123 progression. That might simplify things a bit for teaching.
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I've played nearly 50 shoes in June. Overall I am seeing above 70% winning shoes when replayed by MDB rules, which is fine by me. Furthermore, several of the shoes were above +5 which increases the average assuming a -5 stop loss. The most common problem is shoes high in 1s and 3s which is why we aren't seeing 90% win rate. On the other hand, if we are winning 70% of shoes, it is feasible to gain 20+ units per day playing partial shoes with less than 3 hours per day spent in casino.
Baccarat Database
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
The database is extremely flexible. It can take anything from what you just mentioned, all the way up to inputting every card dealt along with the suit. It will also accept input on how many units were bet on each hand, how the cards are shuffled, the ID of the actual table you were sitting at, etc.