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Posts posted by Action Mike
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This is true in what I'm seeing in my testing. I agree a more aggressive secondary progression could help, the problem then becomes the -5 stop loss, it's just too tight with the progressions that way, especially if you start to go down early in the shoe.
My next concern then becomes if you increase the stop loss, then it makes having a stop win that is smaller more difficult to recover from those losing shoes.
This was brought up at the MDB level up seminar this week. Here's some thoughts:
We might be out of a shoe before completing the secondary progression. MDB favors very short play times on shoes.
Maybe keep separate score and bankroll for Primary and Secondary Progression? Or just have a separate bankroll for secondary progression losses?
Under current MDB rules, the secondary progression should reset to 0 if there is a system change. Under a 0246 secondary progression, it would be harder to recover that.
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6/20 Hard Rock Preshuffled
P181112111151117113311333211111111
6/20 Aria Reused Friday at 9PM
B3141121213212111416511236321111
6/20 Aria Preshuffled
B5111311111111211427221121215121111321216
P1111212111111112112111122112112
B13631122211121113222227361241151
P3512231232211611119111411149
B212114313111241111142133232112119221
6/21 Hard Rock Preshuffled
B2211312211111349552211221311221
P13312211123313226113151113154112131
B2413114318112221541221112213121
P2412413223113333511221111111111221111
B12151121152112144225221221221411
6/23 Aria Reused 9AM
B222422614122421223113211
6/23 Aria Preshuffled
P1211111212111111112313111341112121111111231
B21312135242
B111314112111124312
B221111133221111111132131312253112
6/24 Hard Rock Preshuffled
P12311231171211234212211111
B3123131211351 --- This was the first MDB Seminar Shoe... I had to leave the group to take some phone calls so I missed some shoes after this
6/24 Rejoined Group at Palace Station
B222314312
6/24 Aria Reused -- After group disbanded
P2112125413112111115112144423223521
6/25 Aria Preshuffled
P11653312521111141152118241414
B1211311311342252314331211123127211
P711121131315621
B1411223
My play for this trip was very unusual. I was tired upon arrival to Vegas, having been up all night for 2 nights prior. On Sunday 6/22 I was up all night again. I didn't sleep more than 3 hours in a row any night this trip so my concentration continued to deteriorate every day. I won't be posting my scorecards because they are not indicative of typical MDB play due to my extreme sleep deprivation but I believe everyone at the seminar learned from my experience and was able to see based on the actual shoe data that MDB works.
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I'll be there.
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Played 6 Shoes last night from beginning to end
all at same table (likely the busiest one at the casino all day)
shoes were played from 12:30AM to 8:00am, after my last recorded shoe, they changed cards and I left
these were reused cards, with about 16 hours play on them when I started.
MDB did quite well, so I think I might have recruited a new player or two.
B112132211113111111211215132111412324111
P111111127132211111233251151132233
P211211421142411213911212232412
B1122171232211113312111212211211216
B1221311124212116253111111243113212121
P421112122144211211851111111132
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Heading back to Vegas this weekend, but before I hope to capture a few shoes in south florida. Either way, I'll make sure to record them an post them.
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Well it seems your results weren't too off from mine in regards to the preshuffled cards (Mirage and Hard Rock) but when it came to reused cards the games got a bit tougher. The other point of notice is the reused cards were all well into mid afternoon. I don't know how much play they actually got, but in each case (Aria, Luxor, Mandalay Bay) it represented the only open table at that moment in low limit rooms mid day on a Tuesday. I suspect that the Mandalay Bay table didn't see much action. It is kind of out of the way and nobody even walked into the room, much less the table as I played, whereas Aria was a full table right in the main walkway by the cage and Luxor only ever has one table with that day 3 people playing when I arrived.
For me there are three lessons learned:
1. Preshuffled cards can be beat by MDB.
2. The better records I kept, the closer to the system I stayed.
3. I need to go back to the Hard Rock again
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The scoresheets show how the cards went. If the number is in red, I lost the number of units I wrote in P/B so my bet didn't match where the cards landed. If it is in black I won the number of units I wrote in P/B so my bet was the same as where the cards landed. If there is a line, that was a tie hand. Anything marked 0 was where I didn't bet except for Mandalay Bay hands 41-50 where I played like a typical Vegas gambler.
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Just reviewing my scorecards again and noticing where I made some bad plays. Although less than ideal, wouldn't S23 hold up well in most shoes with high 1s and high 3s. Any time there are high 3s that means there was at least a 2 before there was a 3 and in that case we would win on the the 2 of that 3iar and possibly the 1 as well. We would lose on the 3 but we would still be holding our own unless we are stuck with repeated or 113 or 311 combos.
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Added score cards how I actually played them for most of the shoes
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As I had only 1 losing shoe, I was having better than a 90% win rate. The second loss was on the same shoe, I should have demanded a shuffle but it was their only table at 11AM on a Tuesday. I have however found that initial drawdowns seem more common to me beginning at play 2 and I don't think SAP count isn't going to be reliable below 5 plays. Even though each shoe made it to +5, I would have avoided drawdowns in most shoes if I had waited.
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gman,
good wrap up, however the losses I suffered came from playing tired and not following MDB rules which is a bad habit I have. I posted all except two of the mirage shoes (don't know what happened to those cards, but were both winning shoes) and I had a three more shoes at HR, one was +6 at $100 units which I lost the card for and another one was more of a quick gamblers hit where I was showing off for a friend jumped in for a few hands, made $1000 and left. Didn't record anything. The losses at HR were from the last shoe I played in HR at 6AM and lost 2K, then played same shoe 4 hours later (nobody had been at the table since) and lost another 1600. I was playing $400 units for that shoe. Apparently I didn't write down anything on that shoe because it isn't in my book. Either that or I ripped it up because I was upset for breaking my winning every day streak!
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Mirage B1111112121222
HR B12211112111111321262132321121
HR B11212322121141121116112523122612111
HR B133111311211
HR B1134111151211222723141432122112
HR P2531121111112
LUXOR B1115112221132311212411
MB B231212621111311131111113323251132
ARIA B131422112113225111331112271
ARIA P11343
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One other note. I met with my Host at Hard Rock in Vegas on Tuesday morning. Although I played every day, he told me I had less than 3 hours of table time in 4 days, and I was up over $5000, which was after my morning bad shoe. I was playing $200 units the entire time. He wasn't particularly happy that had agreed in advance to comp a $1000 a night suite for 4 nights to get me to play there instead of playing in the MGM family. Based on my results at Hard Rock, I'll certainly go back and give him more table time because he had confirmed (as did my scorecards because I also note times) that I was hitting +5 and quitting playing 30 minutes per shoe. I'll be back in Vegas on Friday the 20th if anyone is interested in playing before the seminar.
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I don't know about concrete proof, but I certainly think it would be nice to hear about Mike's recent results in Vegas. He mentioned he was going back for a 4 day trip a week ago or so, it would be informative to at least hear how it went. Especially for those going to the seminar in two weeks. (Note: I'm not going, would like to, but family obligations prevent.) Obviously he has no requirement to tell us squat, but if he's going to be a presenter/instructor at a seminar it would be telling to see what his results with MDB have been. I hope they have been great, I'm rooting for everyone to be successful.
I went for 4 days and extended it to five. I didn't play a whole lot as this trip was my annual Hard Rock Rehab pool party trip, but I managed to hit 3 shoes at Mirage on Friday night to +5, then several shoes at Hard rock on Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday I was very tired and having a hard time concentrating. Not sure if the shoes were that much tougher or just 4 days with limited sleep catching up to me. I lost one shoe because I grew impatient at HR, then went to Luxor and captured +10 on re-used cards, followed by +9 at Mandolay Bay. I then went to Aria barely holding my head up. I was at +5 and placed a 1 bet which I lost then proceeded to place a 2 bet but mistakenly placed it wrong and the cards were dealt too fast for me to change it. It would have taken me to +6 and I would have left. Instead I was at +3 and so tired and irritated that I just quit. In any case, I found MDB to take several shoes into the 40+ hands, but each one made it to plus 5. The downside is the party cost me 6K, so all of my winnings all weekend had to pay for the trip, not pad my bankroll.
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Dumb question time:
Forgive me, Ellis - you probably answered already.
How can I tell if the casino's cards are regular or preshuffled?
Glenn
You can guarantee they are preshuffled by playing a touch game and watching them take them outside the box to prep them. That's generally available at $100 minimum and up, however some casinos will allow it for $50.
Ellis, I have a more detailed question ---
When the cards come preshuffled to the table on a NO-touch game where they get recycled all day in an alternating pattern via shufflemaster, would you still call that preshuffled?
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Now that is what I call devotion.
My money says that Mike will be one of the first to actually make a million dollars.
Thanks Ellis. Coming from the master, that means a lot. My money says I'll make it sometime this year or go broke trying
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Timing on this couldn't be better. Headed to Vegas tomorrow and will be trying multiple casinos. I have the official rules thread printed out, so I can read it every hour on the plane
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Why would you play so few hands then get out of shoe up 6 units???
Doesn't really prove much...just saying...
It proves something very powerful. He gets out of every shoe winning.
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In reviewing the S40M1 +5 strategy shoe that was posted I have a few statements and then a question.
1 - After winning a secondary prog bet we go back to a zero bet for the next secondary prog.
2 - When the zero loses we bet our secondary prog bet that 2's will go to 3 (bet OTR).
3 - When the zero wins we bet our secondary prog bet that the 2's will stay 2 (bet ATR).
That's how I understand it. Did I get it right, Ellis?
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Extremely good Mike! That's my boy!
When we were talking yesterday, I didn't come away totally confident that you completely understand the 0 bet. It is critically important that you get it completely under your belt. It's a trick of math wherein we can throw a simple 123 progression at them that they simply can't beat. So I'm going to reexplain it today and give everyone a way to remember it correctly. I think it was big cash's comment I was trying to answer yesterday when out site went down. But I think I captured it in memory.
Hey, I love it when they throw that super chop stuff at us. They might just as well hand us the money.
I did understand it completely, was just wondering if it were necessary. But I played it, and murdered them. Just got back from a 3:30AM run to Hard Rock as well, +20 in 3 shoes playing purple. Switched to OTBL because of ties but S40M1 was holding strong. This time I kept the scorecards, so I'll get them posted later when I have both eyes open.
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Played Coconut Creek in FL today. Shoes were so heavy in 1s that I didn't play 50 hands in 3 shoes. Got out of the casino +30, of that about a third was purple because they were so heavy in 1s that I increased from 100 to 200 to 500 during the coarse of the play.
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Here is another thing I've been thinking about:
We Know that with regular cards, casino shuffle techniques favor OTB4L and we know why - casinos always win OTB4L shoes.
I suspect that with fixed cards, that will be even more true for the same reason.
So the knee jerk reaction is that BaOTB4L will be our strongest system.
I'm not so sure:
See while losing our secondary prog with either S40M1 or BaS40 is remote, OTB4L puts us in double jeopardy. Both 4iars Straight and ZZ trigger a secondary prog.
But also our progs are greater with BaS40 and BaOTB4L (120123) than with S40M1 (10123).
I'm wondering if S40M1 might end up being the safest and surest way to get to +5???
The +5 version of S40M1 is no longer a streak system.
Look at the sample shoe. We actually did better in the 3 chop columns than we did in the streak column - in spite of the 9iar.
Also, 2s are no longer a culprit for S40M1.
And while the progression is shorter, the chance of losing the secondary prog is the same as with the other +5 systems.
Hmm, food for thought. Time will tell.
I'm risking my own money to test BaS40M1 on tables in Florida. I believe it embodies the KISS concept, which will work well on a daily basis.
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BTW Mike, I'm counting on you to make sure Keith wins in Vegas.
Otherwise I'll have to kick his ass.
No problem. I could use a big win too. Trying to get a few practice sessions in before then. I need to be betting yellow by the time that trip comes as I intend on spending 5 nights in a two story villa.
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High 1's or high 1's and 2s = BaS40
High 2s or high 2s and 3s = BaOTB4L
High runs either ST or ZZ or both = BaS40M1
SS is still F3
Just trying to make sure I have this correct. The only difference between BaS40 and BaS40M1 is that BaS40 uses 1,2 on opposites for the primary progression, whereas BaS40M1 uses only 1 bet on opposites for the primary progression. After either one fails to win in the primary progression, they go into the exact same rules for secondary progression.
Also, is there a difference between BaS40M1 and S40M1 or is it just typo's?
South Florida Shoes 6/19 and 6/20
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
6/19 Midnight to 8AM Session
All one table all reused cards
B11213221111311111121121151321114123241111
P11111112713221111123325115142233
P21112114211424112139112122324012
B1122171232211113312111212211211216
B1221311124212116253111111243113212121
4211121221342111211851111111132
6/20 2AM to 5:30AM
Several Tables, all reused cards
B4222221171121112631331121331011
B142263131311191252121331211121122
B1111731153
B3324141112311121121222212131123221121121