Action Mike
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Posts
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Posts posted by Action Mike
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A few more shoes like that and I'll have to make a trip to Philly
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Another observation from here that has helped me. I do most of my gaming in Vegas, because the 5 hour flight and staying in a Hotel room puts me in a different mindset than being at home. Few of us (me included) are accustomed to a $2500+ per day income, and worse than that, a $2500 per hour loss (-5 at $500) For me it is like living a double life, but I must say, I kinda prefer the life I live at $2500-$5000 in winnings.
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I'm playing the +5 systems. I stayed away from the posts for a bit because I had some other things going on, but it does work. I'm going to try to be a little more active, but since I spent more than 20 days in Vegas for April, I'm a bit behind on many fronts. It was a very successful trip. I highly recommend the tables at Aria in the mornings.
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Hi Ellis, I bought my NOR training manual 2 months ago. The instructions in that manual do not mention any of what you just stated above. The manual teaches a progression of 1,2,3. It does not mention a 0 bet for OTR, it says to bet 1 unit OTR and sometimes a second 1 unit bet OTR. So now I am just confused??
Can you please post just one shoe showing each of the 3 NOR systems encompassing the OTR bets of 0 and showing the idea of a secondary progression as you have just mentioned. This is also not in the manual. It sounds like the manual I just bought is a little outdated and that you have advanced in your development of the systems.
Perhpas it is time to either update the manual or send an ademdum of the updates on one page with the sale of the manual so the new commers can be up to date on what the new teachings are??
I have learned a lot of invaluable information from the manual and I see the value in it. I hope you can understand my posission and the confussion as someone who has never studied NOR before.
Thank you for taking the time to read this and I continue to be greatful and learn from every post you make. Be well.
The tactics mentioned above are part of the million dollar system. This thread will be moved into that forum soon, I have already put in the request.
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Congrats Mike! Good for you. Which systems and progressions do you use? Do you have a favorite system and therefore seek out that type of shoe? Best of luck as you move up in the progression.
When in Vegas, I have found S40M1 to be excellent on tables at my favorite casino. At my second favorite place, it seems to alternate between S40M1 and OT4BL. I haven't played in Florida in 2 months, so I'll have to see what that looks like again. I don't play S40M1 exactly as it is listed here. Often, I will wait until hand 6 to jump in, and I have been getting out immediately after my first 1 Unit loss after +5. I also have found it is more comfortable to wait 2 hands after a tie. Also, I'd rather jump tables or wait for next shoe than trying to get above +5 in a single shoe. For me, playing mechanical builds emotion upon after 3 losses, so I try to limit my play to 30 minute or less sessions. This is even more important when moving to larger units.
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Mike, best of luck to you as you move back up the progression! Sorry to hear about the set-back, but the road to success is never a straight line.
Made my 5 shoes @ $200 and then did another 5 shoes @ $200 before running out of time in vegas. I did have time to get +3 on one shoe at $350 per hand, which I did in 5 bets to cover my flight costs
Back in Florida for at least a week, I'll probably try and complete the week 2 steps in Florida and go back to Vegas for the week 3 steps. -
I'm guessing it didn't go as planed. Better wait for the seminar.
I completed the $200 step, and played another day at $200. As I started the $500 step, I had some personal issues come up which caused me to be very distracted. I ended up playing completely off system, and lost like most gamblers do. I did 5 shoes +5 at 100 this morning, and will do another 5 shoes later at $200 before I decided if I'm going to stay at $200 again or push on for the $500.
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I think 20 to 25 units per step is plenty. Remember, we have a -5 stop loss. If you are sliding backwards immediately after progressing to the next level, you still have 30-40 units at the prior level. . Also, 25 units represents 5 shoes at +5, which I think is attainable in a single day. Going beyond that is spreading days.
Let's call this the millionaire in a month plan:
Week One Starting Bankroll $500
$25 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $625 Won = $1,125 Total Bankroll.
$50 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $1,250 Won = $2,375 Total Bankroll
$100 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $2,500 Won = $4,875 Total Bankroll.
Week Two -- Give $2,375 to Wife and Start with $2,500 Bankroll
$100 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $2,500 Won = $5,000 Total Bankroll.
$200 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $5,000 Won = $10,000 Total Bankroll.
$500 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $12,500 Won = $22,500 Total Bankroll.
Week Three -- Give $2,500 to Wife and Start with $20,000 Bankroll
$1,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $25,000 Won = $45,000 Total Bankroll.
$2,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $50,000 Won = $95,000 Total Bankroll.
$4,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $100,000 Won = $195,000 Total Bankroll.
Week Four -- Give $45,000 to Lawyer and fly to Vegas with $150,000 Bankroll
$5,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $125,000 Won = $275,000 Bankroll.
$10,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $250,000 Won = $525,000 Bankroll.
$20,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $500,000 Won = $1,025,000 Bankroll.
Day 29 - Decide what you want to do as a millionaire alone in Vegas!
I'll be in Vegas again this weeken looking to complete the $200 and the $500 steps.
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I think the reality is that Keith and Ellis started a "business" here which was really a hobby. Nowadays the "hobby" appeal is gone and the "business" isn't profitable. I was once down this road. Because I love what I do as well, I looked at it as a business, changed my pricing model to something that worked, and today I have a staff of 5 instead of a 10 hour a week hobby. Most of my customers pay 5x what they used to pay. One or two of them left. The remainder realized what I realize here. The original "hobby" was undervalued, and we now have to pay what it is really worth. BTC needs to be run as a subscription based service with a monthly fee per user, regular scheduled webinars and the occasional classroom. I'm about a week away from getting off my ass and making Keith an offer. I'd rather not, because I have my hands full already, but I value this forum and if I have to carry it on my back to keep it going then I just might. We'll see what happens in my next 2 Vegas trips.
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The 3 bet is a bailout, not a profit step. Your winnings should come from your 1 bets and your 2 bets. The goal is to survive to get back to the 1s and 2s again. Going 1-2-4 puts 7 units at risk if you lose the 3 bet. That's a lot of ground to cover from winning 1s and 2s again. I used to play that way. It hurts more than it helps.
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I am having a hard time swallowing this thread. Really. We discuss betting $25 to $100 and some people $200 to $5000 per HAND, (less than 2 minutes) and someone mentions $10 bucks a month and people don't jump all over it. WOW. I spent $900 to learn NOR and get access to the forum. Money I made back the day of the lesson. I can't understand not investing in more training and knowledge moving forward. Keeping people interested to teach new information and coach us is very valuable. Ellis can't do it for free. I wouldn't either, however I consider my feedback here part of my "classroom" discussion. Ellis doesn't need us to teach him. Its the other way around. Some people really need to get their cheap asses on the program.
<end of rant!>
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Consider that you've gone from one extreme to the other - from U1D1 to 2Hi. There is a happy middle ground. Don't tie your hands. You need a safe way to deal with 1,2 losses. You can't simply ignore them but you don't need to go to 3 either. Look at the shoe I posted. I only got to 3 once and I only got to 2 twice. Usually I don't get to 3 at all. But that particular shoe had high 2s. We won it handily anyway. But we needed that one key 3 bet to do it. 3 bets are not a bad thing when applied very sparingly. Buy tieing your hands by never betting 3 - now THAT's a bad thing. Many shoes have a way of backing you into a corner. You need an occassional escape device - one with clout. That time we used the 3 to beat high 2s. We can't always count on low 2s just because the shoe started that way.
I've found the shoes that I play, more often than not make drastic changes in their patterns somewhere between play 40 and play 60. Because of this, a progression in a progression that started earlier in the shoe, is still very much a moving target later in the shoe. There is only one safe escape route. My feet. To add clout to it, find some fresh air. Like you recently said, we don't need to win every shoe. Playing 2Hi, it isn't that hard to recover from a 1-2 loss. But a 1-2-3 loss really hurts. Besides that, if our rules state to not progress if you are at -2 and we are supposed to quit at a +5, then where would we ever place a 3 bet? If we are on a shoe Hi in 2s, we should be using OT4BL. If we need 3 bets to get out of a shoe, then we are doing something wrong and there is a better table somewhere.
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You need to give a sneak preview of what to expect. You can't say there. Calling it a "Million Dollar Webinar" is a pretty bold statement.
Based on the active threads here over the last 30 days, I don't think his statement is all that bold. I've been contributing and testing the system with my own money. I have at least one more Vegas trip this month, possibly two. Alas, this info came about a month too late for my $30,000 in 30 days goal, but by the end of summer, I fully intend on doing a full 1 Million Dollar run.
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I played again...just got home.
I posted another win yesterday with this system, but I don;t see it here. I am not going to type it out again, but it was scary and I got lucky in later shoes.
Tonight was a breeze in comparision.
First Shoe player won +17. Up $170
Second Shoe Banker won +14. Up $30
Third Shoe still betting $10 per hand. Banker won +6. Down $30.
Fourth Shoe, betting now $15 per hand. Banker won 2. Down $50
Fifth Shoe, Player won 9, and betting $25 per hand. I quit up $175
What made the night great was during cashout, this young blonde is in front of me... She drops some change on the ground and I pick it up for her. She thanks me...and touches my nose. I thought his was weird...then she turns back to the cashier and drops some more change... This is when I clue in she is totally out of it. I asked her how her night went and who is she with. She then claims she is with me, and stands beside me while I cash out my roll. Then she said she needs a ride, and goes to hold my hand. I am thinking...WTF... This is too easy...
Let's just say the drive home included an invite inside!
Sounds like a really lucky night, however based on your last two nights, it seems your luck is running out. I'd be very careful with your bankroll and the system you have. If you are really stuck on using it, at least take the winnings you have at this point and put it away for a rainy day. Luck won't run forever.
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Ellis,
First, lets think about the fact as to why get off a run when you are already on it until it ends? You only have 1 bet to lose, and no pre-defined number that you could win. Regardless of the statistics of numbers of 4 IAR or 5 IAR, etc, the truth is we cannot use long term statistics to win short term. Better to "ride it till she bucks you".
Given that, I am also looking at the progression in a progression comments. While I agree it could (and likely will work), the potential benefit is small as opposed to 2HI, and the potential downfall is losing 3 to 5 units. For a +5 win (which is called not being greedy) I don't see the need. Also reducing the risk is the key.
Its funny, when I first came to the seminar and started reading the forum, I thought the teachings were too conservative. I had a big bankroll and was betting black and preferred U1D1, regardless of the system. After 6 figures worth of losses from REALLY BAD nights over the last 2 years, I realized that conservative is the only way to win in the long term. Since moving to 2HI, I've seen my consistency go up substantially. The nights I stray from 2Hi, well, at least I don't do that as often any more
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I think 20 to 25 units per step is plenty. Remember, we have a -5 stop loss. If you are sliding backwards immediately after progressing to the next level, you still have 30-40 units at the prior level. . Also, 25 units represents 5 shoes at +5, which I think is attainable in a single day. Going beyond that is spreading days.
Let's call this the millionaire in a month plan:
Week One Starting Bankroll $500
$25 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $625 Won = $1,125 Total Bankroll.
$50 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $1,250 Won = $2,375 Total Bankroll
$100 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $2,500 Won = $4,875 Total Bankroll.
Week Two -- Give $2,375 to Wife and Start with $2,500 Bankroll
$100 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $2,500 Won = $5,000 Total Bankroll.
$200 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $5,000 Won = $10,000 Total Bankroll.
$500 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $12,500 Won = $22,500 Total Bankroll.
Week Three -- Give $2,500 to Wife and Start with $20,000 Bankroll
$1,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $25,000 Won = $45,000 Total Bankroll.
$2,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $50,000 Won = $95,000 Total Bankroll.
$4,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $100,000 Won = $195,000 Total Bankroll.
Week Four -- Give $45,000 to Lawyer and fly to Vegas with $150,000 Bankroll
$5,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $125,000 Won = $275,000 Bankroll.
$10,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $250,000 Won = $525,000 Bankroll.
$20,000 x +5 per Shoe x 5 Shoes = $500,000 Won = $1,025,000 Bankroll.
Day 29 - Decide what you want to do as a millionaire alone in Vegas!
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Hi Ellis,
How many units are we using for a stop loss for the +5 system ?
Thanks
Wendel
-5. That way even if you win as many shoes as you lose, you still break even. The +5 system is about taking it slow.
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I talk to him every week we are setting up a seminar on the west coast tonight
K
I could be in for another seminar on the west coast
. I need another reason to schedule a trip there. Every 2 weeks for no reason is starting to make the wife ask questions -
Just like THE MOST INTERESTING MAN IN THE WORLD, who attended the NASCAR race held in Vegas this weekend, you may not always want a seat at the table, but when you DO, make sure you have doctor Ellis in you hip pocket.
Stay thirsty,my friends .
Thanks for the ego boost. I wasn't that interesting that weekend, but the following two trips.... that's a different story
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An excellent all inclusive overview Mike. It makes a good Million Dollar Manual all by itself.
I was basically making myself a 1 page manual that I could print out, and reread several times on each plane ride to Vegas as well as while I am there. Something like the 10 commandments of becoming a millionaire in baccarat. I figured I would share it.
Hmm, but you are exceptional.I've spent an exceptional amount of money learning, but thanks to you and several of the other members here, the payback will be worth it.
Then I'll put everything related to the +5 Million Dollar Program in ONE sticky thread no one can post on.Great idea.
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I agree with everything above other than I will would add the caveat that flat betting 1 unit will allow you to confirm you have chosen the right system, and prevent the hemorrhage when you are just entering or already below -2. I have found this helps lower the number of losing shoes, especially when playing tired, tough tables, weekends, etc. All of which I often do.
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I haven't been on forum in a couple of weeks. I just read all of the million dollar threads. Ironically I have been playing very similar to that over the last month at both Aria and Mirage in Vegas. I grabbed some snippits from several threads, and I'm putting them all into one place after making subtle changes. This is how I have been winning:
Not all tables are playable. Just play the obvious ones. The game is not about guts. It's about smarts - and discipline.
Objective: +5 units
Best to wait for 3 events and about ten plays
Betting progression is 1-2-2, stop.
After 3 consecutive wins, increase 1 unit. On next loss, go back to 1-2-2.
Never make a 2 unit bet if your score is -2 or worse, flat bet till you get your score up to at least a 0 or -1.
If you lose 3 bets in a row stop and wait till you have 1 or 2 paper wins or you see a good signal to start betting again.
If you lose 2 bets after getting back in it is probably time to quit the shoe and find another one.
Once you reach +5, leave on the next losing bet.
OR count determines mode.
Mode 1, you go OTR (On The Run) after 1 losing bet and stay until you lose.
Mode 2, you go on the run after 2 losing bets and initially stay for 2 bets.
Mode 3, you go on the run after 3 losing bets and stay for 1 bet
EVENTS determine system!
High 1's = S40
But High 1's together with high ST runs and low 2s = S40M1
High 2s = OTB4L - We like to also see high 3s and single 1's with it which we usually do.
Low 2s = S40M1
Low 1s and 2s = TB4L
Strong Side = F3
1's normally occur one every 4 plays on avg.
2s normally occur one every 8 plays on avg.
A + OR count can ONLY occur in high 1's, period.
A - OR count can ONLY occur in low 1's.
So, if you know what 1's and 2s are doing you already know what to play and what mode to play it in. See that?
Not all tables are playable. Just play the obvious ones. The game is not about guts. It's about smarts - and discipline.
That last line was important enough to list twice.
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I was in Vegas 3 times last month. Two 3 day weekends and a 5 day trip. I can back winning each time, however each trip had the same issues. Somewhere in the trip I deviated and lost a pile. On my last day of my last trip one of the dealers actually had a chat with me. She has noticed my play and pointed out exactly when and why I'm losing. She was spot on. I intend on going back again later this month. The key for my last 3 trips is to limit the time at the tables, play every other day or just a little bit per day. And use the +5 system.
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Update to keep thread on track. Played 2 shoes Tuesday morning in SFL and got greedy, lost 25 units first shoe after being ahead by 5 units and then second shoe I went to -5 and left. Came back that night and won 28 units in 5 shoes. Apparently I needed a brief reminder about quitting at +5 or -5. Played wednesday morning to +31 in 6 shoes. Bought ticket to Vegas, arrived in vegas at 9:30, went to bed at 2:30AM, 5 shoes and another +29 later. Played 1 shoe from hands 55 to 68 this morning to +7, decided it is time to give everyone an update.
The +5 system works. I've been depositing winnings in bank on a daily basis to cover last week's mistakes. I'm going to wait for another +50 before increasing unit size. Being in Vegas, I now have the benefit of table selection.
P.S. I'd also like to add that I did learn some things in the 4D forum. Maybe not a exactly how to play 4D and win 99% of shoes with it, but certainly more than enough to cover the cost of admission. Come on guys, anyone reading this forum should have been able to go for $250, and if you didn't learn $250 worth of information, than its time to reconsider your game.
Introduction to Million dollar Bac @ +5
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
I'll defer to Ellis for an "official" answer, but when I am playing with my own money table selection is the method used to get to +5 the fastest. Why work hard to play a table when another table would be easy. If the casino has 14 tables, it certainly makes sense to look at all the tote boards and see which one is going to be the easiest to beat right away. From what I have seen of the pre-shuffled cards, they produce something I would call "micro-bias". It is like a bias for maybe 15-20 hands and then it changes. The goal is to jump in, grab the +5 and get out and then repeat on another table.