XDN
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Posts posted by XDN
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FYI - No Baccarat tables at French Lick Casino in French Lick Indiana, even though their website says they have it. Very nice resort however if you are a blackjack or roulette player. Looks like they had a "high rollers" area with many blackjack tables. My recommendation is to stay in the West Baden Springs hotel (just down the street). The dome was considered one of the engineering or architectural wonders of the world when it was built.
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Avion...SUPER interesting. Would you be kind enough to give an example of how you play the even and odd bias? Maybe M1/M2 as well. Don't need a whole shoe maybe 10-15 plays. Thank you!
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18 hours ago, wolfat said:
I am obviously interested in this but before start some testing IMO it should be better fix some rules.
I suggest to check the sap ct IE, on the last 4 events instead resetting the count, if an event is still hot throughout the whole shoe we can play it, if it cools down, we can switch easily, if the 4 events are tied, you can play reverse sap, etc
I'd also discuss about weighting or not events. Currently I don't do this, simply put an event in relationship with bigger events, you can do this with a blink of an eye, no need tracking and keeps things easier.
I usually divide my sap card in sections of 4 events, a MC event, to be played, need to be within the last 4 ev, if it's not RECENT better wait, IMO
Thoughts?
A
Pretty please?
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Wow! I know what I'm doing over Thanksgiving weekend....studying! thank you!
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34 minutes ago, brad01 said:
will check it out and let you know
I'm going to try to get a few shoes in this weekend as well to test this.
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SAP needs to be re-vamped. No one will see the true value of this tool unless old theories are thrown out and new, more innovative theories are brought in........Find the guys that you can trust and do it as a team.
McVince since you wrote this a few days ago i've been giving some thought to this subject and IMHO I think you are right.
I've come up with an SAP idea (not proven yet) that more closely follows what we are discussing on the board these days. We all know that the shoe biases don't last, worse, many times they change extremely fast, within 3-8 events. Thats that is the main reason for the "Follow The Shoe" / Short Term NOR / Last 3 Event Methods development. But we haven't done this to SAP yet. My "Short Term SAP" thoughts are as follows....
1. Reset SAP Counts on a loss trigger (say 3 LossIAR on the bias you are playing) or on an obvious shoe change (SS goes ZZ).
2. Change the count method from addition to multiplication for short term tracking. Since this would be a short term method we need to generate a MC/LC spread quickly, within just a 2-4 events. This will make the numbers bigger quicker, so it might be unwieldy if a bias lasts the whole shoe but really it shouldn't be....the numbers will just be bigger. We could multiply by the existing count instead of simply adding the counts. I think this works logically because if we are tracking/looking for a concentrated set of events in a short term "set" of events. In other words if we see 2122 2's are WAY over represented in those 4 events, we need a multiplier to build a spread quickly to represent that overage of 2's in that small set of events. Example using 2122
First 2 Event = SAP Count = 2 (Starting Point)
****Ignore the 1 event for this example***************
Second 2 Event = SAP Count = 4 (Previous SAP Count(2) X SAP Multiplier(2))
Third 2 event = SAP Count = 8 (Previous SAP Count(4) X SAP Multiplier(2))
etc.....
Note... We may have to change the multiple for 1s as multiplying 1x anything is always 1, we would never get a multiplier effect
This would be a companion SAP method to FTS. I'll try to get some testing in on this in the little free time I have. If anyone wants to test some shoes to see if this works, please do so.
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12 hours ago, Jeremy said:
Hi
I am a newbie and have followed most of the posts here.
I consider myself a player who understands the basic of opposite, repeat, otbl, tbl, SS, SAP.
I have tried the methods shared by the experienced players.
I have set very low expectations of winning 3 units per shoe with the recommended methods but I have not been successful in having many winning sessions.
However when I read some of the posts by the experienced players, the impression I get is that they win all their sessions with average of more than 5 units per shoe. Sometimes you hear of 10, 20 units per shoe.
I like to survey and ask the experienced players what is the realistic winning sessions and average units per shoe? How many years it took u to get there?
Eg. 80% of sessions or 9 out of 10 sessions. 10 units average per shoe.
This will give newbies what to expect when they embark on the baccarat game hoping to turn it into a full time pro.
Thanks.
I've been at it a little over a year am approximately break even with my BR over that time. I have very good stretches and very bad stretches but overall even. It is a little discouraging that I haven't made a big amount of money with the amount of time i've invested BUT.....BUT.....BUT on the other hand. With what i've learned here at BTC, I think that breaking even over 1 year is better than most "gamblers" do (we are players not gamblers). I really feel like next year, I will be able to grow the BR and hang on to the gains. Keep at it!
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2 hours ago, carlos gomez said:
please send me the copy of the manual to my email carlosgarcia19818@gmail.com
You can find it here >> Click Here
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50 minutes ago, carlos gomez said:
thanks bro but i need to know if anybody buy his system and i need to know if it works
If you don't get any responses to your question on BTC do the google search and click on this link. It answers your questions.
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Anyone know if any of the online casinos are using pre-shuffled shoes?
Any of them available to those in the USA?
Thank you!
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WOW!!! Just WOW!!! Avion you are an inspiration! I've been swamped lately but i'll get to mine as well. This is the best thing if read/seen in a long time. Well done sir!!
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Brad could you do a big favor for me? I'm working on something and need a blind check against a shoe I know nothing about. Since you posted the 1st half of your shoe this is a great chance for me to check something. Thank you!
Can you tell me how the following bet sequence would do after bbbb? N=No Bet
21. Your Shoe (B21121231611312142611214) NNNPPBBBPBP <<<< I would like to check this series against the next plays
22. Your Shoe (B21121231611312142611214) NNNPPBBNPBP <<<< I would like to check this series against the next plays
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This is a good idea, and even we choose wrong, it's a good way we can learn and share our knowledge.
bb pb pp b pp bbb pbbbbbb pb ppp b pp b pppp bb pppppp b pbb pbbbb? >>>> P (Actually i'd probably not bet as it's ambiguous to me)
1. There have been 2 6's but the banker 6 was in the first 1/2 of the shoe.
2. A single player followed by banker(s) (bold text) has been inconsistent in the shoe 2 PBs 1PBB and 1PBBBBBB. Single player followed by single banker = 50% of the post single player events. Single Player followed by BB = 25% of the post single player events and Single player followed by 6 bankers is the other 25% of post single player events. So the only evidence we have (going on Oz's "if I don't see it I don't play it") is the single player going to 6 banker but with no 5 bankers and that the 6 bankers happened in the first 1/2 of the shoe that may make the "going to 6" play weaker.
3. While banker is ahead in the shoe, if we split the shoe in half (underlined) Player has dominated the last 1/2 of the shoe P14 B10, (2 single players are hard to ignore however with the Norm/Oz SS is the strongest biase rule)
To me, it's ambiguous, I would probably not bet but if I had to, i'd probably take player as player is stronger in the last 1/2 of this shoe and we have to win 2 more bets to get to that banker 6. If we had a banker 5 or a PBBBBB i'd jump on the banker too.
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This is great information thank you! With the chart you provided, I think it would be possible to track this.
For example, if you bet banker 25 times and card numbers 6-9 are pulled first 20 times, we may be able to determine that this is occurring.
It would be easier to track this at a physical casino as you can see the table bets and get a rough estimate. Online casinos, you don't really know how the table is betting, however i've had my suspicions at 5dimes las vegas casino. The rebate casino is a clear shoe.
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41 minutes ago, avion said:
BacPlayer, I am dealing with an abscessed tooth and headache. Heading to the dentist tomorrow, and right now it hurts to think.
Ohhh man sorry to hear that. Rest and get well!
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Man that was an eye opener! I spent about 4 hours with this thread today, most of it on Ozs play by play and wow. I wasn't even close to this depth of analysis! Now I know enough to know that I don't know enough haha! Thanks everyone, now more work and practice!
FYI - I wrote a document that attempts to gather and consolidate the most important ideas in this thread. I've uploaded it to the downloads section. When Keith approves it, I'll post a link. When it's available I hope all of you will have a look and let me know if I left any good stuff out of the document that is in the thread.
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24 minutes ago, avion said:
We are already lined up 3 deep in bowing down to the master of RD1.....are there are more loyal and faithful devotees here? Just realized it is Friday night, and all the young ones are in a casino, and us old farts are sitting around with heating pads and ointment on our aches and pains.....lol
Haha...well, I'm watching my 5 month old while my wife works...but ya I do notice an ache or two now that u mentioned it. Thanks for the rd1 shoe! If my daughter will sleep, I'd like to digest oz's previous post and the rd1 as well. OK back to the heating pad hahaha
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Oz, what do we need to do to keep you typing? Adult beverages, ladies
? You name it, you got it just keep typing brother!! -
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2 hours ago, BacPlayer said:
Wow OZ. This is one of the best posts I have seen in the forum explaining exactly the thought process and how and why. Thanks for helping out.
I am having trouble with Understanding RD1 / MC / SAP events
Can somebody explain with a shoe example so it becomes clear
Hi BacPlayer. There is an excellent thread by PapaJoe that helped me understand SAP very well. PapaJoe and some other skilled players spent a lot of time researching SAP and developed a document on how they think is best to play SAP. I'm not advocating or critiquing the bet selections that papajoe has document, but his thread and bet selection rules should help your understanding out a bunch. Katchez's 5D book uses 4D and MDB bets, however, it's pretty deep and might not be the best starting point. 5D is a great work by Kevin but you'll want to understand SAP and MDB before trying to understand 5D.
In a nutshell...a very incomplete nutshell
SAP keeps track of the number of events in a shoe (1's, 2's, 3's 4+s). Example BP would be a confirmed 1 event for Banker. BBP would be a confirmed 2 event, BBBP is a confirmed banker 3 and BBBBBBBBBBP is a confirmed banker 4+. The 1234 events are weighted by a multiplier based on their expected occurance in a shoe and written down on a score sheet.You really have to look at the score sheet to understand (and it's not difficult).
1's are scored as 1 - Most common event in the shoe statistically (50% ish of the average events)
2's are scored as 2 - Next Most common event (25% ish of the average number of events in a shoe)
3's are scored as 4 - Next most common
4'+s are scored as 8 - Next most common
So when you keep this score, if 3's are the highest score in the shoe, 3's are the MC or Most common event. You could bet a 2 to go to a 3 or a 3 to stay a 3
Check out papajoes thread, it's an extensive subject but he has rules document for his bet selection and a sample score card that will put you well on your way!
RD1 - I've not been able to find a good post on the "rules" so if anyone knows of a good RD1 thread i'd appreciate seeing it too
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19 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:
Good man ...See how easy it is to spot that run of Player 2's and Banker 3's on the Tote Board. It may not be the way most play, but when you see such an obvious signal, it's best not to ignore it.
Hey Oz...you may have answered this in your previous, very detailed, post about how you play this shoe but I haven't worked through that post yet and wanted to ask a question about the run of Player 2's and Banker 3's. When would you start betting that run? Meaning would you place a bet after 323(confirmed) or maybe start after 3231? Or do you use it to signal later bets like Banker 2's going to 3's?
One of my playing flaws is, I see something like that, but by the time I have the confidence to bet it, it's over. The other potential flaw I see in my play is, I might place too many bets after starting to play the 2's 3's run.
If this is already in your detailed play post, i'll have a look at it this weekend. Thank you!!
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Thank you very much for sharing this!!! I'll work on digesting it as well. Thanks again !
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When i've used SAP, i've found it takes too long to react. Meaning, it never told me to bet on a run until the run was either over or almost over. That makes perfect sense as it takes time for a strong bias to shift the shoe averages. By the time a bias has shifted the shoe averages, that bias could be finished and was most of the time for me.
I have no doubt SAP is useful however, it's probably more important to know what is happening with the SAP count in the shoe right now than what happened 20 plays ago. At this time, I don't have a system or advice on how to do that, I hope to learn this skill in the coming months. Maybe some of the other guys have some ideas.
? You name it, you got it just keep typing brother!! 
SAP keeps track of the number of events in a shoe (1's, 2's, 3's 4+s). Example BP would be a confirmed 1 event for Banker. BBP would be a confirmed 2 event, BBBP is a confirmed banker 3 and BBBBBBBBBBP is a confirmed banker 4+. The 1234 events are weighted by a multiplier based on their expected occurance in a shoe and written down on a score sheet.You really have to look at the score sheet to understand (and it's not difficult).
No Baccarat At French Lick - Southern Indiana
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
I'm visiting family in Evansville. The southwestern corner of Indiana. I used to live here. I love going to the West Baden hotel restaurant when I get the chance. But I never went to the casino in French Lick before. I'm thinking about going to the Evansville boat one of the next couple of days. I think they might have one baccarat table. Then it's back home after the holiday vacation. Last year I mostly played online, had a bad streak recently so I've been taking a month or so break. But I haven't played in a real casino for a while and thought I'd just go and play 10 dimes to get the juices flowing again. I've heard the Evansville boat has a baccarat table but I'm doubtful, it's a pretty small river boat operation. However they are getting rid of the boat soon and building a land based operation.
I'll check it out and drop a report here.