XDN
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Posts posted by XDN
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Okok, no laughing at the question
... i'm thinking of doing a Vegas trip but I just can't accept $150 - $200 night on a room..crazy in my book.
Any of you all have any recommendations on a decent, lower priced hotel? Just looking for something reasonably quiet, somewhat clean..it doesn't anything have to be fancy. And not Freemont Street. I'm to old for all that LOL.
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@Itsahardbacclife Welcome!!! Read and ask away! The sheer amount of information here can be overwhelming. Start with just a couple of things then go from there. I suggest starting with V87, TBL/OTBL and S40.
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The most satisfying aspect about the journey to develop The Ultimate Baccarat App is discovering something or combining ideas in new ways to improve a result. Those rare successful moments are like a bright light on top of a mountain, easy to see and quite exciting. However, what can be too easily overlooked is the mountain of dull, forgotten stones required to support the bright light so it may be seen on high. I've had one of those moments this past week and thought I'd give you a look inside....
In my idea notes for the app, I finally got around to a question I wanted answered.
"If I add up P/B W/L s from all the roads statistics and make a recommendation from them, would it be another good indicator?"
The process...
- Take a random shoe, play it hand by hand, count up all the W/L totals on all 4 roads, make a prediction, record the results. About 2 hours work.
- Wow, the test worked great +7 units, but one shoe isn't a proper test. Now, code up a proof of concept application and run 20 shoes through it. About 6 hours work.
The result....it was a colossal failure. LOL Totally random results, I just happened to pick a shoe where this "new" method worked great. But over 20 shoes....it didn't work and there was nothing useable or helpful in this indicator.
So... 8-10 hours of work later, this dull stone gets thrown on the pile to be forgotten along with all the other ideas that didn't work....only to become the support structure for those rare bright shining lights on the mountain.
I'm not looking for a pat on the back here, I've done this 100's of times while working on the app and found a rare few "bright lights." This is what makes The Ultimate Baccarat App "The Real Deal" in my opinion, new ideas and REAL testing. Again, not looking for a pat on the back, I just thought some of you might be interested to have a look inside the process....
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Welcome @pongtoxic glad to have you. Be patient, read everything, give everything a chance to soak in and ask tons of questions!
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I found this on Reddit the other day... all credit to the original poster. Interesting post that does quantify why pure math doesn't tell the whole story for baccarat.
Mathematician's Fallacy
Mathematician's run millions and billions of shoe simulations when in reality a person is likely to never reach 100k shoes played live in a touch game.
Mathematician's fail to show Monte Carlo simulation of runs of 1000, 10,000, or 100,000 shoes played where all blocks showed a net loss.
Mathematician's need to write in the algorithm showing how many blocks of 1000 shoes net a profit or blocks of 10,000 shoes net a profit etc.
Simple math on how many shoes a person can play over their lifetime is as follows:
Avg. life expectancy of world population is 72.74 years (2019). Let's use 78.79 years which is the U.S.A. average. You cannot legally gamble in brick and mortar casinos until 21 years old. That leaves you with 57.79 years of bacc playing. Let's say you are a professional gambler and you play 8 hours per day, 5 days a week. Let's also say you play only the bacc games where you can touch the cards. These games average 1.5 hours per shoe. That's 5.33 shoes per day or 26.67 shoes per week or 1387 shoes per year or 80,135 shoes in a lifetime.
Now break out the simulation for 80k blocks and see if any of the strategies out there show a net profit.
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I watch a lot of the Tasty Trade (TT) videos. If you haven't heard of them, it's a brokerage who teaches mechanical stock and options trading. There are a lot of correlations to baccarat. One in particular, Managing Winners is closely related to some things we suggest here at BTC, namely stop loss/wins but this is just another way to state it. The most relevant Tasty Trade tenant to me, when cross referencing to baccarat, is Managing winners, the second most important to me is #2 below, the one my dad does with his trades. Hope this helps!
1. Managing winners (winning shoes) - One of the TT methods is managing winning trades to close (leave the shoe) at 50% profits outperforms holding to expiration (aka playing to the end of shoe trying to squeeze every last unit out of it).
How does this apply to baccarat? If you are up units in a shoe, consider that closing the trade early (leaving the shoe), will, over time most likely out perform continuing to play. I haven't done the research into this in the baccarat world, but in the options world it's well studied, see the video below.
Attempting to squeeze every last penny (unit) out of a stock option trade (baccarat shoe) opens the trader/player up to un-necessary risk. A profitable position can turn on a dime to un-profitable, so book that profit! 50% is their mark.
2. Book and remove the profits - My dad does something interesting with his stock option trades... books the profit, removes the funds from his trading account and buys groceries/gas/etc. with the profits. Very wise in my opinion. Example: If you have already built a bankroll, say $1000 and you win $100.... withdraw it and put it in your non-betting bank account. If you don't have a "built" bankroll this is less relevant, but for most of us working stiffs, it's good practice to turn those short term profits into something tangible.
Here is a good video from Tasty Trade about managing winners. They've done TONS of simulation research on this in the stock option realm which, in one guys opinion, correlates well to baccarat.
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@diego Welcome!! If you joined and got the app, I'd suggest starting patiently until you get used to it a little.
You have access to https://beatthecasino.com/btc/ the Stragic Baccarat Interface. Play a few shoes in SBI with the app just to get the hang of things.
Post questions! Welcome!
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@Joe6Ok Welcome! Glad to have you on board!
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On 7/5/2022 at 7:21 AM, Keith Smith said:
Please welcome @khalil Gibran Welcome Aboard
Welcome!!
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Hi All, the latest update of "The Ultimate Baccarat App" and the "BTC Classic App" are live on Google Play. This is a "hotfix" release that fixes the TBL/OTBL & OR count bug when ties are used. Appreciate the feedback!
To get the update you can use google play on your phone or follow the links below.
"The Ultimate Baccarat App"
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=btc.btcsuite1
"BTC Classic featuring TBL/OTBL"
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=btc.btcclassic
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Hey all, I thought I'd share my day with y'all as a reminder you don't HAVE to play and sometimes it's good not to.
I had a 10:30am Dr's appt in Louisville KY (about 2 hours from my house) so I had to take a day off of work. Caesars South near Louisville is a very nice casino with baccarat. It's rare for me to have an opportunity to play at a "real" casino so yesterday I planned to visit the Dr. then head over for some "real" play. Hit the bank for cash yesterday and had my bank roll ready and everything. I was ready to go and excited.
Well...that was the plan yesterday around supper time......
Then.... I couldn't sleep. Only got about 2 hours sleep before the early morning 2 hour drive over. I got started late so I was rushing over, no time for breakfast, forgot phone charger, traffic was heavy etc.... Made it to the doctors just in time, rushed to fill out paperwork and the visit was stressful. For those concerned, my health is ok, I'm just starting to lose hearing in my left ear so a specialist is needed.
Got out of the doctors and went to my truck..... and just sat there like a zombie for 30 minutes and just spaced out/relaxed. The lack of sleep hit me and I felt drained. Still, I don't get the chance to play at real casinos that much so I very much wanted to go play.
As I was driving over to the casino, my wife calls and says she will get off work early, she and my daughter were happy about that and wanted to do something fun when I got home!
While talking to her I thought..... WTF am I doing .... listen to yourself, listen to the universe. I was in no shape to play. So I changed my plan and went home to have a nice afternoon with the family.
While it stunk that I missed my one chance probably in the next 2-3 months to play a real casino, and there is no way to know how I would have done, might have caught a nice easy strong side shoe........ I was in no shape to play baccarat. Chances were good I wouldn't have won. Chances are I'd have been playing tired and frustrated....that is NEVER good.
Baccarat is about systems, statistics etc... but self management is a must too. If the universe is telling you to go home... LISTEN LOL
You all have a great day/evening, I'm going to have some awesome home cooked Thai food (my wife is Thai) and get some early shut eye.
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@Fedda These really detailed questions should go in the private forum, I've answered the question above here.
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On 5/22/2022 at 12:31 AM, Souljazz1990 said:
Ok, i understand now why it happens, thanks.
Another question, it's prolly something logic but i dont got it: why it only shows player recommendation after the 4 player ( 4 hands start P P P P, maybe P) if its on 3of3 ct+hot
thank you
Derived Recommendations are made when a disparity goes "Hot" in 7D. In 3 of 3 mode, PPP, no disparities are hot. The P/B disparity has different rules. It is not used for Derived Recommendations unless you specifically turn it on in settings.
3 of 3 mode.... PPP - We've had 2 repeats and no Opposites R1 = 2 3 of 3 means 3 of the last EVENTS not HANDS. There have only been 2 EVENTS... we don't know what came before the first P so we can't know if it was a repeat or opposite.
At hand 4... now we have 3 EVENTS
Hand 0 to 1 - No event, we don't know what hand 0 was. We can't know if hand 1 was a repeat or opposite EVENT.
Hand 1 to 2 - EVENT - Hand 2 was a repeat of hand 1.
Hand 2 to 3 - EVENT - Hand 3 was a repeat of hand 2.
Hand 3 to 4 - EVENT - Hand 4 was a repeat of hand 3.
So at hand 4 we finally have 3 EVENTS. And 3 of the last 3 EVENTS have been R1 (repeat of 1 back). So it is hot (and the "hot disparity" R1, is has the highest count between O1 and R1) so a Derived Recommendation will be made based from the "ct+hot" events.
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@Scooter My suggestion for the dashboard selection is twofold.
1. Jump on SBI and play 10 shoes "on paper." - Why? There are no "set rules" for anything in baccarat. Forcing an arbitrary set of "rules" on your play will limit you to 50/50 because EVERYTHING is 50/50 in baccarat except finding the current anomaly
ANY set of rules you have will be 50% (generally)
2. Some shoes, all the Derived Recommendations on the dashboard follow each other. Other shoes, 1 will be better than the rest. If one is working, I'll consider it more heavily and bounce from one to the other.
Remember, the app shows you what is currently working... don't get bogged down in what WAS working.
When I play, I keep an eye on derived recommendations, if one is working better than the other, I'll consider it more heavily. If they all are following lockstep, I'll consider them heavily when they match. I also check 7D/7D+ for those big anomalies that occur. Finally, most of the time I keep score so I'm checking ST and either using it to validate Dashboard bets or making sure I get on strong side.
If this is sounding like "The 10 best app bets," (if I may steal that phrase
).... it is EXACTLY like that. Hmmm good idea.... here are a few in no particular order....
(DR = Derived Recommendations aka Dashboard Recommendations)
***USE THE HIT RATES TO ANALYZE WHAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING*****
- 7D(+) When you I see a single disparity group difference, think O7 vs R7, I love those. The longer ones (O7/R7, O8/R8 etc... tend to stay strong UNTIL shoe changes.
- DR If the shoe presents all DRs working in lockstep, I'll consider that. If one is beating the others, I'll consider the one that is winning and change as necessary.
- DR/V87 Many times these can have anomalous/very high hit rates. When I see a V87 recommendation, I REALLY pay attention to it and check hit rates to verify it's working.
- ST Strong Side/Weak side scores - You can't beat a good strong side. If I see one, I jump to it.
- High Hit Rates I'm always looking at the hit rates. If any of the derived recommendations have high hit rates, I'm considering those first. I don't care which one and I have no hesitation to move from one DR to another to get on the working one.
- "In Jail" Hit Rates when derived recommendations are hovering around zero. When they keep going back to zero, I consider that too. This would be a "reversion to the mean" shoe. They are not as easy, and IMHO not as good of a bet as the others that find a "running" trend. But if a DR has been going from 2 back to zero the whole shoe, you can wait for it to hit 2 then play for a reversion back to zero.
****I'll post this in an app related thread, this is some good guidance for using the app*****
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13 hours ago, Souljazz1990 said:
Hi there! @XDN i have a question about the App. I dont understand the process that suggest the Dashboard bet, if: All dsp it's the sum of P or B suggestions, shouldn't that have to be empty on dashboard? sorry if you dont understand what i mean :x
Thank you
Fabio
O2 = 5 O5 = 3
R2 =1 R5 = 0
Difference. 4 vs. 3. O2 Wins
O2 recommends player so Derived recommendations = player
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1 hour ago, Dmake888 said:
I have an Samsung S5. Will that be too slow? Probably better to get one of your suggestions.
S5 will probably be ok. If you already have it, I'd say give e it a try. You can always upgrade phones and re-install later.
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Hi @Scooter This is one of those "A picture is worth a 1000 words" times
I did have a typo in the original quoted post from above....i'll explain that
Here are my settings for 3 of 3 and 4 of 4, interestingly, both had the same number of wins for Hi DSP....but 4 of 4 had a massive hit rate of 75%. In other words, with 4 of 4 the player would have used fewer bets to get the same units.
This is why I say test the settings. Each and every single shoe will be different. It's very much worth the time to test shoes with different settings to become skilled at identifying different shoe types. The fewer bets you have to risk by putting a chip on the table to win that 8 bets the better....at least for my personality.
and lets examine commission....
3 of 3 - The total number of bets was 23. If we assume 1/2 of those bets were banker (just for example) and the unit size was $25 that would be 11 banker bets (I rounded down). 11 X $25 X .05(commission) = $13.75 commission.
4 of 4 - Total bets = 16. 1/2 of them banker = 8 bankers. 7 x$25 X .05 = $10
Not huge but bump that up to $100 unit size
3 of 3 - 11 x $100 x .05 = $55 commission
4 of 4 = 7 x 100 x .05 = $35 commission.
The app gives you enough settings that you can play your style....but you need to test. Do you want to make fewer bets. In the case above, 4 of 4 was more efficient. It won't always happen this way, but if you get used to testing with different settings, it'll help you be able to quickly change them to "scan" the shoe for the best settings.
Here is a screenshot of my settings for 3 of 3 and 4 of 4
3 of 3 settings total bets = 23, result +8
4 of 4 settings 16 bets, result +8
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@Max66 I'd go with player for this reason.
1. O4 and O7 have a great bias (07 is less important here IMHO because we don't have a lot of shoe history at this point and the event lengths are < 3).
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On 5/7/2022 at 2:23 PM, kachatz1 said:
Hey, XDN -
perhaps I am the least capable of helping BTC members figure out how to use the Ultimate Baccarat App, since I don’t .
Simple reason is that anybody this forum knows me, I prefer table over On-line ( I don’t even have an account anymore) , and even Stadium ( many opportunities here in Las Vegas, and perhaps elsewhere…) I play by MY10+ rules/experiences/probabilities…
- But thinking for sure I do know this:
Have observed many this forum deploying the app to their advantage, in Stadium situations here in Las Vegas, and a simple google search of the principles and concepts behind AI is convincing enough for me!
In point of fact, the way I play at the table is little more than 5D/V87, coupled with MY10+, ( and heavy dose of Experience, Patience and Discipline)—— both what’s happened in the shoe, and over 30 years of actual experience playing Baccarat …( thinking that’s pretty much Baccarat AI)
And whenever I sit with a player using the App, most often my deductive reasoning coincides with the App’s answer to “ what to bet” !!! Or not to bet at all…
Anybody does not take full advantage of this tool, the Ultimate Baccarat App, and who can’t afford to / knows better than to wait/ waste decades to figure things out?
- C.r.a.z.y. , IMHO
GET , AND LEARN TO USE, THE ULTIMATE BACCARAT APP, SOONER RATHER THAN LATER !
even you use it just as another to ‘ verify/support ‘ your bet decision, or better still a reason NOT TO MAKE A BET…do yourself a favor …
-don’t just get it, learn from XDN and other players how best to use it to your adbvantage…
....And whenever I sit with a player using the App, most often my deductive reasoning coincides with the App’s answer to “ what to bet” !!! Or not to bet at all…
Kevin..... THAT IS SO COOL!!!!
That is exactly what I have been working towards. We've got so many ways to dissect a shoe, but I'm convinced of this. Opposites/Repeats 1, 2,3 .... n back is the way to understand the "language" of each individual shoe. It's not easy to score on paper and thats where the app comes in. But....even if you can't use the app, understanding the behavior of Opposite/Repeat 1,2,3....n back helps you "SEE" the language each shoe is speaking.
So cool that you are seeing a lot of app bets "Jive" with yours!! 4(7)D for the masses LOL
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On 5/8/2022 at 4:16 PM, Scooter said:
XDN and Keith
In the video, you focused on the 7D+ that showed R9 Banker 12 to 3 over player. The dashboard recommended player with an Asterisk for all DSP and all V87. I understand that the Asterisk represents on opposite recommendation to the Player from the previous results showing banker. XDN said when you see a spread in In the disparity like this 12 to 3 Banker, you should jump on it. Which one do you bet in this situation. Player or Banker?
Thanks,
Paul Scooter
Great observation @Scooter you don't need to do "the flip" the recommendation is already flipped for you. The * is just an indicator to let you know it's in the negative. I put it there as a reminder because, for example, if you go to the 7D/7D+ tabs and see the highest disparity is recommending Player..... but then switch back to the Derived Recommendations tab and see it's recommending banker....it can be confusing. If you notice that, and see the asterisk, it's a good reminder that the app is working as designed even though 7D tab and the derived recommendation tab may have opposite recommendations.
In the negative mode (when you see an asterisk).... 7D has made a recommendation based on a specific set of disparity conditions. BUT every time (or most of the time) the recommendation has been made, it lost. Consistently. A recommendation that looses consistently is just as valid to play as one that loses consistently. We (baccarat players in general) just haven't had a way to track and play in the negative.
The shoe in the video was AWESOME on the negative side. I think the hit rate was what 65% or something like that. So 65% of the time, when the "leading" recommendation(s) recommended a play....that recommendation lost. That is a bias, just gotta flip the bet...which the app does for you.
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This is what i'm getting for 100% P,B,P,B,P,B,P,B,P,B
@Souljazz1990 Can you post the hands you entered so I can test please?
Anyone else seeing an issue?
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3 hours ago, Souljazz1990 said:
Hi,
question:
All+V87 dont show hot on 100% accuracy, is it a bug?
Thank you
Hi @Souljazz1990 good question.
Not a bug....
The Hot/Cold indicators will only "Light Up" when there is a recommendation.
Even though this Derived Recommendation has a high hit rate, there is no Hi Dsp +V87 recommendation for this hand, so nothing to consider/think about. Highlighting it on this hand would only be a distraction.
... i'm thinking of doing a Vegas trip but I just can't accept $150 - $200 night on a room..crazy in my book.
ANY set of rules you have will be 50% (generally)
New Members Welcome
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
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@Mangaz124 and @Clint welcome! Be patient, there is a lot of information here and post up questions