XDN
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Posts posted by XDN
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3 minutes ago, XDotNet said:
Team... Keith has said that SFP has an problem and they can't add new users at this time. @rious is new so he wasn't added before the problem started.
In the mean time @rious attached are 50 shoes from 5 dimes...maybe 6 months old. I collected them myself so i'm not sharing SFP shoes. If/when you need more, just let me know.
Oops didn't notice this is the public side..... @rious consider the above 50 shoes from my personal collection as a gift and incentive to join the forum as a paying member where you will receive access to Stats For Profits. As @trillion
said contains 1000's of shoes you can practice play and analyze with many different bet selection methods.
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Team... Keith has said that SFP has an problem and they can't add new users at this time. @rious is new so he wasn't added before the problem started.
In the mean time @rious attached are 50 shoes from 5 dimes...maybe 6 months old. I collected them myself so i'm not sharing SFP shoes. If/when you need more, just let me know.
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On 9/14/2017 at 5:39 AM, Keith Smith said:
Hi No you can play with me if you want on top of my bets or what ever you want. We usually play 50 or 100 but there are quarter tables and less a game is a game. Kevin Likes going to that damn gold coast. I hate the gold coast, I think it sucks for comfort. I know we want to stop at the golden dragon I don't know what the mins are there I only walked into it once. Aria will be a $100 game usually when we go there. Don't let that be a consideration to play what you can on top of another persons bet. Kevin will get there at 7 PM but we will probably be playing earlier than that but times are not finalized till closer to the 28th. You can usually get a pretty good deal if you are not comped. Join Total Rewards or Mlife.
KS
@Keith Smith I'm in, booked my flight and hotel last night. Really looking forward to it!
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5 hours ago, Keith Smith said:
Hi No you can play with me if you want on top of my bets or what ever you want. We usually play 50 or 100 but there are quarter tables and less a game is a game. Kevin Likes going to that damn gold coast. I hate the gold coast, I think it sucks for comfort. I know we want to stop at the golden dragon I don't know what the mins are there I only walked into it once. Aria will be a $100 game usually when we go there. Don't let that be a consideration to play what you can on top of another persons bet. Kevin will get there at 7 PM but we will probably be playing earlier than that but times are not finalized till closer to the 28th. You can usually get a pretty good deal if you are not comped. Join Total Rewards or Mlife.
KS
Thanks for the info! I didn't think about topping bets so that would work. I'll talk to the boss (wife) and try to work it out.
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5 hours ago, Keith Smith said:
For our members join us in Vegas on Oct 28th for the 2nd Baccarat Crawl. How much will it cost for Premium Members? Nada , Zero, Zip and to boot we are all going to make some $$$$. Join the Confirmed Players list they are now
Keith Smith
Way2Fast
Kachatz1
Pompano MikeKevin is just insisting we play the Lucky Dragon which will probably be our starting point to meet. You must be a Premium Member to come along so there's another reason to join to get to play with such great players and a reason to go to Vegas. Sign up Sheet will follow
K
Hey Keith, i'm giving some serious thought to joining the weekend crawl with you guys and since this would be my first trip to vegas and a newb to the Bacc Crawl I had a couple of questions.
1. My BR isn't large, what table (minimums) do you guys play? Would I need a large BR to play at the same tables as you guys? I'm probably only able to play flat bet greens at this point, not sure if that is high enough to hang and learn from you guys.
2. What is your normal schedule? Meaning what times do you guys normally start playing on Saturday/Sunday etc...
3. What would be the recommendation for a reasonable hotel?
Thanks for the info!
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Jack, my suggestion is
Go to the download section and get the "Nor Baccarat Manual" and the F2 manual. Learn those first, those are the building blocks of what everyone is doing here.
Keep in mind
1. Nor & F2 are not "systems" that you use to play through an entire shoe. They USED to be, but thanks to Oz and others, most folks on BTC are now perusing methods that follow the shoe so we aren't using negative progressions.
2. DON'T USE NEGATIVE PROGRESSIONS NO MATTER WHAT THE MANUALS OR ANY POSTS THAT YOU READ SAYS. If you can't beat a shoe with good bet selection you will not beat it with a negative progression.
3. Use the Stats for Profits database to practice play until you can learn what S40, OTBL etc... mean in a shoe. Understand that you will likeley play mroe than 1 "system" during a single shoe.
Lastly from my experience, it took me a while to understand what is going on here so be patient and in my opinion, if you can consistently break even you are beating 90% of the people who play baccarat.
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10 hours ago, kachatz1 said:
Hey XD
Not picking on you!
You have outlined a great approach, especially were this truly a scientific matter.
-( problem is, it's not that simple)
We have a 50/50 gaming proposition, for which we intend to apply " rules" which combine approaches toward " unusual shoe bias" ( at least seems that way, if only for awhile) , with solid math concepts like " regression to the mean " ( 50/50)
It's there. Just can you " see it"?
Sounds good Kevin, I'm happy to pitch in!
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29 minutes ago, XDotNet said:
I'm in.
Couple of thoughts
1. We should set a time expectation....I don't know how much work you have done Kevin but if we are bootstrapping and testing rules, this will be a more long term project. Changes and tests/re-test take time
2. I don't know how to solve the "if you don't participate you don't get it" problem but i'm not a fan of that. There was a big controversy about sharing Norms FTS a while back and while I respect the decision, the shame of hiding Norms system is that the FTS knowledge will be lost when the holders of it pass on. We're not all going to live forever.
3. Offsite development and testing, probably a good idea until we can form a solid theory with preliminary testing.
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1 hour ago, waminc said:
Actually been busy with med stuff. Got to be tough to get old, right OZ
. I'm trying to figure out how to paste Norm's guide from 8/23/13. Different from when I played with him in Vegas when he lived out there. Forgot what year...2010,11,12? Note, MOTF(F=FOLLOW THE SHOE) is a GUIDE, not a set of rules. We were very successful in Biloxi in 2013.
Bill
Hi Bill, i'd be happy to help you get it posted if you need any "tech support" if you need it.
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I thought this was a private side thread. Keith if you want to delete my post, I can repost the file in the private side. Sorry about that, no harm intended.
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This document was in one of Norms posts on the forum from 2010.
Is this still relevant or did Norm progress beyond this?
Look forward to seeing Norms FTS rules!
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This example will be using the "3 & 4 Event Length Pattern" groups of data below.
"4 Event Length Pattern (4ELP)" = A pattern made up of 4 confirmed events. Examples: bpbp(b1,1,1,1) OR pppbbpb(p3,2,1,1) OR pbppppbbbb(P1,1,4,4)
Number of Events: 3 | Number of Events: 4
Count:999 (b) pbp (b) >> b | Count:461 (p) bpbp (b) >> p
Count:980 (p) bpb (p) >> b | Count:453 (b) pbpb (p) >> p
Count:978 (b) pbp (b) >> p | Count:415 (p) bpbp (b) >> b
Count:951 (p) bpb (p) >> p | Count:409 (b) pbpb (p) >> bHow to read this mess
Count:461 (p) bpbp (b) >> p
This next screen shot explains 1 anomaly i've found in the SFP database, there may be more, hopefully several more.
I scanned all the SFP "real" shoes (approx 1,650 hand entered casino shoes, the rest are computer generated). Then I counted how many times each pattern showed up with that patterns next bet and ranked them from the most common to the least common.. The screenshot below shows the top 4 patterns for 3 & 4 ELP with the patterns next bet. As you would expect the single events dominate the ranking.
*1st Screenshot below* - Using the 3 event data
PBP - With the next bet of banker showed up in the SFP database 999 times.
PBP - With the next bet of player showed up in the SFP database 978 times
If we analyze the single events (pbp/bpb) in the 3 ELP category, we see nothing exciting...Normal baccarat statistics, banker is slightly more common than player.
But look at the 4 ELP events.... in the SFP database, player is the more common event than banker and has an advantage? That's not normal statistics. Have a close look....
Weird....banker should have a slight advantage but the SFP database shows for bpbp and pbpb that player does ??? Wierd....
Final notes
- Is this the HG ... HELL NO!
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Is it helpful HELL YEeee.... maybe depends on how you use it.
- Will there be shoes/streaks of shoes where the stats above don't work...yep..that's baccarat.
So above...we've discovered that in the SFP "real" shoes that 4 single events are opposite normal baccarat stats. Whatever your betting system is, this might be helpful to confirm or cancel the bet you're system has chosen. When your in a shoe you might mentally note that this pattern was statistically opposite in SFP...
**Final final note - I'm not advocating using this to bet...i'm just reporting something interesting I've mined from SFP. Personally, i'm going to try to mentally notice what happens when pbpb or bpbp comes along. This is such a different kind of betting statistic/trigger/helper that we should be cautious until we can see it in action over many many shoes.
Questions are welcome....
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1 hour ago, ozscouser1 said:
GEE Thanks Kevin...That helps a lot...I've got it now...NOT!...LOL
Now that you have all had your fun at Oz's expense...if anyone can explain WTF that all means to someone in an age group that thinks it would have been a real bonus for the world if Justin Beiber had been drowned at birth...go for it.
As soon as the boss (my 14 month old) takes a nap, ill post an example.
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At this point it's raw data but...take this 3 Event series for example
Count:525 (p) bbpb (p) >> p = The 5th most common pattern for the 3 event patterns.....BUT
(p) bbpb (p) >> b is not even in the top 10
Pretty interesting....is it reliable enough to be exploitable? It does come from the real data in SFP....so maybe?
It might be interesting to run it through some shoes to see if betting player after this pattern is an advantage play.
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I've been doing some pattern analysis on the SFP shoes. As the title says, this is probably in the category of interesting...but is it helpful? Maybe, maybe not...you be the judge. I've got a database of 1,647 shoes, containing all the "real" shoes y'all have entered into SFP plus a few 5 dimes shoes. Randomly generated shoes are not included.
I was curious to know, what are the top 10 most common *confirmed* event patterns, including the next result? Some of them are obvious. The 4 most common events at each length are almost always the singles but even those show some differences with the next result, see line 1 and 3 in the 3 events category. After the singles it gets a little more interesting.
I probably should just spend my time trying to beat the kitchen table ..but this was fun analysis project to code up, and hopefully helpful.
Number of shoes: 1647
Number of Events: 3 Confirm Events Confirm Next Play
Count:999 (b) pbp (b) >> b (b) pbp (b) b - Next play banker is more common for pbp
Count:981 (p) bpb (p) >> b
Count:978 (b) pbp (b) >> p (b) pbp (b) p - Next play player is less common for pbp
Count:951 (p) bpb (p) >> p
Count:525 (p) bbpb (p) >> p
Count:512 (p) bpbb (p) >> b
Count:494 (b) pbpp (b) >> b
Count:488 (b) pbpp (b) >> p
Count:485 (b) ppbp (b) >> b
Count:484 (b) pbbp (b) >> pNumber of Events: 4 Confirm Events Confirm Next Play
Count:461 (p) bpbp (b) >> p (p) bpbp (b) p
Count:453 (b) pbpb (p) >> p
Count:415 (p) bpbp (b) >> b
Count:409 (b) pbpb (p) >> b
Count:235 (b) pbppb (p) >> b
Count:232 (p) bpbpp (b) >> b
Count:225 (p) bppbp (b) >> b
Count:224 (p) bbpbp (b) >> b
Count:221 (p) bpbbp (b) >> p
Count:220 (p) bpbbp (b) >> b
Number of Events: 5
Count:206 (p) bpbpb (p) >> b
Count:201 (p) bpbpb (p) >> p
Count:196 (b) pbpbp (b) >> p
Count:175 (b) pbpbp (b) >> b
Count:120 (b) pbppbp (b) >> b
Count:114 (b) pbpbpp (b) >> p
Count:113 (p) bpbpbb (p) >> b
Count:107 (b) pbpbbp (b) >> b
Count:105 (b) pbbpbp (b) >> b
Count:104 (p) bpbbpb (p) >> bNumber of Events: 6
Count:92 (p) bpbpbp (b) >> b
Count:92 (b) pbpbpb (p) >> b
Count:91 (p) bpbpbp (b) >> p
Count:82 (b) pbpbpb (p) >> p
Count:57 (p) bpbpbpp (b) >> b
Count:55 (p) bpbbpbp (b) >> b
Count:54 (b) pbpbppb (p) >> b
Count:53 (b) pbpbppb (p) >> p
Count:51 (p) bpbpbbp (b) >> p
Count:49 (b) pbpbbpb (p) >> p
Number of Events: 7
Count:44 (p) bpbpbpb (p) >> b
Count:43 (b) pbpbpbp (b) >> b
Count:41 (p) bpbpbpb (p) >> p
Count:39 (b) pbpbpbp (b) >> p
Count:30 (p) bpbpbpbb (p) >> p
Count:29 (p) bpbppbpb (p) >> b
Count:28 (b) pbpbbpbp (b) >> b
Count:27 (p) bbpbpbpb (p) >> b
Count:25 (b) pbpbppbp (b) >> p
Count:25 (b) pbpbpbpp (b) >> pNumber of Events: 8
Count:20 (p) bpbpbpbp (b) >> p
Count:19 (p) bpbpbpbp (b) >> b
Count:17 (b) pbpbpbpb (p) >> p
Count:16 (p) bbpbpbpbp (b) >> b
Count:15 (p) bpbppbpbp (b) >> p
Count:13 (b) pbpbppbpb (p) >> b
Count:13 (p) bppbpbpbp (b) >> p
Count:12 (p) bpbbpbpbp (b) >> b
Count:12 (b) ppbpbpbpb (p) >> b
Count:12 (p) bpbpbpbbp (b) >> bNumber of Events: 9
Count:11 (p) bpbpbpbpb (p) >> b
Count:10 (p) bbpbpbpbpb (p) >> p
Count:10 (p) bpbpbpbpb (p) >> p
Count:9 (p) bppbpbpbpb (p) >> b
Count:8 (p) bpbppbpbpb (p) >> b
Count:8 (p) bpbpbpbpbb (p) >> p
Count:7 (b) pbppbpbpbp (b) >> b
Count:7 (b) pbpbppbpbp (b) >> p
Count:7 (b) pbpbpbpbp (b) >> p
Count:7 (p) bpbpbppbppb (p) >> pNumber of Events: 10
Count:7 (p) bpbpbpbpbp (b) >> p
Count:6 (b) pbbpbpbpbpb (p) >> p
Count:5 (b) pbpbpbpbpb (p) >> p
Count:5 (p) bppbpbpbpbp (b) >> b
Count:5 (b) ppbpbpbpbpb (p) >> b
Count:5 (p) bpbppbpbpbp (b) >> b
Count:4 (b) pbpbpbpbbpb (p) >> p
Count:4 (b) pbpbppbpbpb (p) >> p
Count:4 (p) bpbpbpppbpbp (b) >> b
Count:4 (p) bppbpbpbpbp (b) >> p
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Published on Feb 18, 2017 - Little public service here, watch the dealers fingers/hands VERY closely at the 20 second mark...make up your own mind. I watched the guy on the lefts full video (warning NSFW language). He has some interesting ideas that maybe the first finger flicks are a signal to someone running the cameras to alter/mask the video. He doesn't go into how they could know the cards but, since this is a clear shoe, maybe they mark the cards with invisible ink or a pattern that can be read by an overhead camera but not our eyes via video.
It could have been a mistake, but it seems like a super specific mistake...but..have a look, make up your own mind.
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Thanks much avion. I call it the blue casino since the tables and carpet is blue. Did you try the steak sammich at The Potowatomi?
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Hey Team,
I'm looking to gather as many practice shoes as possible for the "Costa Rica/VIG/Blue" casino.
I've entered about 10 on SFP under 5dimes/Las Vegas Casino.
Since this casino feed is used at many on line casinos, Could you let me know how you post it on Stats For Profits?
Also, if you have any you could email/PM me i'd appreciate it. But hopefully there are quite a few on SFP.
Appreciate it!!
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23 minutes ago, Keith Smith said:
NOR is a acronym for three types of shoes, those that are neutral which means random and no bias, those that favor repeats and those that favor opposites.
I truly believe that the fatal flaw that we all make from time to time is the believe that Opposite and Repeat shoes occur because there is an identifiable bias in a game when in fact you are really just seeing a random distribution of a shoe. When you say that you won the hand because the last hand was a two in a row and it tends to repeat know, that you have a pretty good chance of guessing correctly. We then identify this game as a bias when in fact it was chance. For us to identify it as a bias we must look to other factors and identify the cause. In many cases we have said as some of the quotes point to: Casino Manipulation. The cause for it to be a true variation from random must have a scientific reason. Over many years we have used Casino Manipulation like the God Delusion at times where anything we think is a bias and win we assign Casino Manipulation. At times we have failed and have not analyze it honestly and offer that it could be luck or is there some cause, since we have looked no further we say casino manipulation ( Shuffle). I strongly suggest you pick up and read the book Fooled by Randomness.
Taleb argues that human beings are genetically hardwired to misattribute the results of human endeavors to skill and knowledge that are, in fact, just coincidental, random events.
We now are thinking in a different way to some extent, we are thinking SAP ( VIN SAP) that in a random situation we usually see 1s,(18) 2s( 9),3s (4,5),4s (2.25)5s (1.25) 6s (less than 1). as a matter of fact within in an X sampling of hands , 99.7% of those events will occur enough randomly. What that means on a scatter chart chart you will see one 6 in a row 1 time every 72 hands give or take. So I need to look at Stats for profits and calculate the mean length of runs, and then 1,2 and 3 standard deviations and then tell you what will be the longest event you can expect to see in a game of baccarat with near certainty of where we have shoes from.
When we have the mean, we can assign a count to the mean, and use it to know whether to bet repeat or opposite because the mean count will tell us what the game is saying and how far off we are from the other shoes in the casino . In other words the average run length is 2.75 banker or players long. on In the Commerce casino the bell curve is off. The mean run length is 1.25 on Banker and too many on player at 7 long on that side. The bell curve is warped and not within specs and we are missing the middle statistics of random chance. And furthermore we can then now conclude that it is Casino Manipulation on purpose maybe not, but according to statistics we are seeing a variation due to some process flaw, which now if they do not discover and correct to bring the cards back to random you can exploit with certainty, now you can make a million dollars no kidding.
My 2 cents.
K
THAT is one of the best posts I've read here. Good stuff, thank you!
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On 12/29/2016 at 10:12 PM, trillion said:
XDotNet, I live in Evansville and play occasionally at Tropicana Evansville.
There is a baccarat table on the second floor in the High Limit area and the minimum bet is $25.
Hey Trillion,
I went down there last night and there was one guy playing bacc on 2 open tables. Thats something like 15 open seats?? I guess they know what they are doing but you'd think they would open a $10 table to get some people playing. Instead they paid one dealer to stand there doing nothing
They hand shuffle the cards and the one shoe I saw was great an old school S40 shoe where the bias stayed the same the entire shoe. I wish it wasn't $25 or I would have played S40 on it. All 1's with 4x2's, 3x3's and 1x5. S40 M3 would have gotten at least +20 on it. The more experienced guys would probably have got +40. So it may be a good place to play if you play $25 units.
My wife played the "parachute" method and won a unit
Parachute method baccarat is very popular with the Asian crowd (my wife is Thai). Here is how you play.
1. Jump in on the table.
2. Glance at the board.
3. Drop a chip, pull the cards and hope you survive the landing.
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3 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:
How is a $25 min Table considered "High Limit"?
Haha no kidding. I still like to play 5s or 10s because I'm not hitting 50%+ on my bet selection consistently, so I'll steer clear but...
25 dollar = high limit is the same thing as saying government intelligence!
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5 hours ago, brad01 said:
Hey guys don't forget u can play roulette just like bacc using even chances.
i guess the house edge for double zero American roulette is not as attractive as a single zero European wheel but an insurance bet on zero if playing at high enough units can be used.
heres some spins straight off a european wheel from crown casino Perth.
16 8 36 29 16 14 24 35 16 16 31 23 28 32 25 31 5 14 26 17 15 2 9 31 2 14 11 26 11 2 20 11 11 24 18 36 4 1 29 4 33 16 12 36 7 24 18 28 6 27 35 16 28 26 11 12 7 14 2 27 0 2 14 28
64 spins only 1 zero !
red / black:
R11112221121124121821134112113311111
S40 opposites, SS, opposite repeat switch
its there for the taking - no preshuffled cards no machine shuffle or hand shuffle just pure 50 / 50
u do the odd / even and high / low games
3 games in 1
choose the best or play all 3
wish I had of played this instead of bacc today - I won but felt like I got robbed by banker 6-1:2 payout
I did notice a reasonable amount of repeats at the French Lick automated roulette machine. Might start doing this while studying baccarat more on paper.
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11 hours ago, trillion said:
XDotNet, I live in Evansville and play occasionally at Tropicana Evansville.
There is a baccarat table on the second floor in the High Limit area and the minimum bet is $25.
25 limit in Evanspatch? Wow. Didn't know there were any high rollers here/there (maybe enough meth dealers to keep the table full?)
said contains 1000's of shoes you can practice play and analyze with many different bet selection methods.
. I'm trying to figure out how to paste Norm's guide from 8/23/13. Different from when I played with him in Vegas when he lived out there. Forgot what year...2010,11,12? Note, MOTF(F=FOLLOW THE SHOE) is a GUIDE, not a set of rules. We were very successful in Biloxi in 2013.
Count:461 (p) bpbp (b) >> p
Anyone has some Shoes I can play?
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
@rious Great, glad you joined! If you need more shoes just post the request in the private forums and I can send you some more.