Try checking out Ellis' count reversal (or zero proximity) threads here. To me, it explains why sometimes I'd lose big time as the count was going up. It's going up because low cards are still coming out. It comes down only when 10s start coming , which is when you want to spread. And don't be too discouraged. When I first learned counting, I pretty much broke even playing $2 and $3 games in downtown Reno, and gave up trying to make money with it. But I figured if I could break even, why not play green and get comped at Harrah's Lake Tahoe. Guess what? I started winning and kept on going until one night I played at the $100 table in the bac room (which had been $25 that afternoon) and won $8000 in 4 hours. They had me down for a $4000 win but I was barred the next trip (after I was down a grand, of course). Funny too, the guy next to me kept telling me I didn't know how to play the game. (Hit a soft 18, hit a 13 against a 2 with a negative count?) When I was barred in front of the whole table, he was shocked. Btw, I saw my action on the casino's computer and they expected me to lose 2 average size bets per hour. Unfortunately, it also showed me winning 2 average bets per hour (even after pocketing chips whenever I could). I wouldn't be surprised if the casinos program a much larger expected win nowadays.