Tens Ratio Question

[ddbcinti]

Am I understanding the tens ratio right?

If there are four players, and there are 2 tens in the come out cards, the ratio is high? What is considered neutral? One ten would be a low ratio?

I'm confused?

What if all four players' come out cards are low and they all four take a hit and all the hits are ten cards? Is the round then considered high or low?

Thanks for your patience. I am new to this program and I am still trying to sort things out.

ddbcinti

[ECD]

Figure it this way. There are 4 tens in every 13 cards. If there are more, the ratio is high, less the ratio is low. While this sounds somewhat difficult at first it is one of the reasons that we push home practice. Eventually you get to a skill level where you can declare a round high, low, or neutral at a glance without counting anything. We call this going by the paint on the table.

Now Carlos likes to go a little further than that. He looks at high cards vs low cards instead of paint. I can't knock success. What he does obviously works for him. We could actually count high vs. lows by assigning +1 to low cards and -1 to high cards. That's how counters do it. And many NBJ players do that esp. X cardcounters, which many NBJ players are. This, of course, works, but I don't encourage it. There are many important things going on in any BJ game. I like my players to be extremely observant. Things like hole card reads, dealer biases, etc. I fear a player can get so preoccupied by counting that he misses other more important information. Paint gives you a good picture of what's going on with the high card distribution. Whatever is going on with the highs is also automatically going on with lows. I've tried both methods and for me I prefer the paint approach.

[Zenwin]

I am a little confused as to how we'll use this 10s ratio with betting. Let's suppose there is already 2 low rounds gone by, can we safely presume that the next round will (or just may) be high 10 ratio round ? Do we have to trace back to the last shoe we've played, i.e. when there was 2 low rounds, it always followed with a high round ?

I appreciate Very Much that you encourage us not to count them. For there really is enough of things to watch (for us beginners) on the game table.

Can you explain a little further of how we can use this important 10 ratio count information ? Yes, I fully understand if there are lots of high in one sector, there must be lots of low somewhere. But where ? (in this shoe) Do we have to be an experienced player to know ?

[Guest CarlosM]

Some games will have 3 low rounds and 2 high rounds. Some will have a max of 2 low rounds and mostly not seeing 2 low rounds in a row. If 2 low rounds went by you would only assume the next is high ratio if in that game it happens consistently. You could also be in a game that is random or near it. How can you tell? When a Ten or a high card falls, are you most of the time or more than not seeing a Ten or high card follow after? Whether it's 1 or many highs after that first high fell! Or, when a high fall or a Ten, does a non Ten or non high card follow after about half as much as a high follows? Or even this, when a high falls, most of the time or more than not, a non high follows. These are random, near random, and super random games. You can also add to this the TENS ratio pattern. If you are seeing random cards and never seeing more than 2 low ratio rounds in a row, you can play third base using the 1-4-6 and not have to worry about anticipating if the next round is low or high. Here, you can play the 1-4-6 all the time regardless of what type round is due next! If I see a game and it is clumped but, not over clumped and first base is not in the window, I watch third base, even though the cards are no where close to random. I see if that current player does not lose 3 in a row his way. If he does, I also see if he would lose 3 in a row playing his hands my way in my mind. If good, I play third base. Now here I most likely won't be playing my prog straight. I will play my 1-4-6 according to the high and low ratio rounds. So, say I never see more than 3 low rounds in a row, and I win the 1 bet on that third low round, normally we bet 1 again but, here I will bet 2 because I am almost sure the next round is high. Or say we never see more than 3 high rounds in a row, and I lost a 1 or even a 4 bet on that third high round, normally we go and bet 6 next. But, here I will hold off on that next high bet of 4 or 6, and bet 1. I will bet that 4 or 6 bet when the history of the length or longest length of low rounds ends, then bet that 4 or 6 bet next into a VERY strongly suspected high round. Because in high rounds, we have the better chance of getting good hands and the dealer is most vulnurable to breaking. Double bonus! Or I may be watching a game and it's not in the third or first base window but, I notice that the game is pretty clumped and I would win at first seat if I bet low in low ratio and high in high ratio and the number of low rounds in a row and it's longest are pretty consistent in this game. Same for high rounds. Here, we don't need to see a final ten or final high. Even if the last card or cards are lows, if I strongly suspect the next round is high and I notice in high rounds at first seat I almsot always win and in low rounds I almost always lose! This is called Advantage betting. It can be done at third base when the game is of course clumped and first seat with Advantage betting or First Base method is not in the window and I note that playing a 1-4-6 straight is not good either and can win if using the 1-4-6 with the ratio rounds history and if the player number is low.

[ddbcinti]

Thanks, Carlos. From your explanation, I can see where my problem was. I was practicing at home with 4 players (I was at first base). And it seemed that only two rounds out of each shoe were low ratio, with the rest of the rounds each with only 2 or 3 high cards in each round. And so I am thinking these are high ratio rounds and I was expecting a high card at first base, but almost every read of the cards was wrong. I was betting up because the ratio was high (2 ten cards with 4 players). But NBJ was not working because the cards were not clumped much and were really pretty random. I think I fell into the trap of counting the number of tens so intently in each round that I failed to notice where the tens were falling in each round! As a new member, I had a lot to learn! How long does it take to develop the ablity to look at these rounds differently and to learn to better judge what is coming in the next hand?

[ECD]

It doesn't take that long if you get plenty of practice time in. It's good if you can have a place in your home allocated to practice so you don't have to waste time setting up and tearing down every time. It is also good to develop your abilities of abstract thinking. In other words to think in pictures.

Picture the paint as waves in a calm sea. How big are the waves and how many rounds are they lasting? The object is to avoid betting high into a suspected low round. And to avoid betting low into a suspected high round. Pay particular attention to the last 5 cards in a round. They are a BIG clue as to what's coming in the next round.

Fortunately you don't have to be right ALL the time and you won't be. The whole idea is to be right MOST of the time.

So how do we use this skill once we have perfected it?

We know that from Third base our 3 bet prog works best in random cards. BUT a random table is seldom consistently random throughout the shoe. We usually have one or two high clumps somewhere and their corresponding low clumps. At a mostly random table we could ignore those rare clumps, stick to our 3 bet prog religeously, and do pretty well. BUT, we are always striving to be as good as we possibly can be. To that end we watch for and anticipate these high AND LOW clumps and adjust our prog accordingly.

For instance: As you may know, we tend to do better in low card clumps than the rest of the table. They are trained to sit there and stand and let the dealer win in low card clumps. We know better. But suppose, playing a 1,4,6 we win our one bet at the end of a low card clump and see from the final cards that we are going into the high card clump where our odds are better. We might very well win 2 or 3 more 1 bets in that high card clump. As you begin your casino play, you will be perfectly happy to win 4 or 5 one bets in a row. But, as you sharpen your skills you will tend to chastise yourself for doing that. You'll frown and say "all those one bets should have been 2 bets. I should have known." See, for the high card clump duration you should have changed your prog from 146 to 246. You see that?

The reverse can happen where you lose your 1 bet just in time for a low card clump. So do you bet 4 right into the known or suspected low card clump? It's brave but is it smart? Usually not. Change your prog to 1146 or even 11146. The object being to bet 1 throughout the low card clump. This way we can often squeeze out a few more units out of a good shoe. Does it ALWAYS work? Not important. Does it usually work? Yep.

Now, as Carlos is quick to point out, Some games your performance in low card clumps is sooo good that you simply forget all that and stick to your 146. But tables are not always that good. The tougher a table is the more your honed skills come into play. But don't rely on your skills too much. Always remember that our TOP priority is to find the EASIEST game in the Casino. Carlos is so good at that that he often finds it unnecessary to alter his prog. The key to getting THERE, Carlos will agree, is practice.

[Zenwin]

But how do you know any game (of how many H and L rounds) before play ?? Do you need to watch or play the entire previous shoe to know this ?? If not, how many hands do you need to watch before you can determine / anticipate the next round ? And the rest of rounds ?

Suppose you've watched 2, 3 rounds and decided the cards run randomly. Is it safe to presume the rest of the shoe are consisted of random rounds except a few H / L rounds here and there ? Is there a mathematic way to better understanding this. i.e. X no. of rounds in a shoe minus the 2, 3 random rounds, therefore the rest of shoe = ??

Please don't mind my slow learning ability. I need a better understanding of this.

Thanks.

[ECD]

You don't know. Yeah, you can get a clue from the isle but you don't KNOW. That is why you capture the chair and say to the dealer I'll start the next shoe. Do this right after a shoe has started if at all possible. This gives you a whole shoe to determine how best to play that table. And when you start you STILL need to test the water because now you're playing the other color you haven't checked yet. Fortunately in BJ there is USUALLY little difference between deck colors but now and then their is. Don't be in a hurry. It's not about time or dollars per hour. It's about who leaves the casino with the most money. When you sit down think of yourself as a gathering storm. If you like what you see fine. If you don't, that's why you keep one foot on the floor. In the test the water phase always be ready to pick up and leave. We never challenge the dealer, we only play games we know we can win. Some days that means we don't play at all. Fine. That's better than losing.

[Zenwin]

It makes a lot of sense to me now. I thank you. !